Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)


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Post Post #450 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 2:16 am

Post by Hoopla »

cruelty wrote:5 power roles in a 12 player game seems like a lot to me...

Budja wrote:I feel it likely I am the last PR
What do you think about Hoopla's claim?


Don't have time to talk about anything else, I have to work (on a holiday, sigh, but time and a half, yeah!).
When you have time, why don't you tell us what you think of all the claims? So far, you've attacked me for my interpretation of SpyreX's claim, while discarding what he is as irrelevant, and now you are using your limited time to ask others what they think instead of offering your own thoughts.

~~

I agree with the initial thought though, that 5 powerroles seems high, but when you consider what each of them actually do, the only one that has any real power is the gunsmith. The two doctors can save a kill, but can't be protected, the motion detector isn't really that useful and my role is searching for just one player. Assuming a 3 scum game, it's hard to balance the game with any less than 4 of these roles, due to them all being relatively weak.

So, if we are to assume it's likely that 0 or 1 of the powerroles are lying, it is more beneficial to lynch from the pool of vanillas by sheer virtue of having a likely higher concentration of scum. Also, leaving all the powerroles alive until night means we get more nightchoice interaction, which is a benefit to the town tomorrow. If most of the powerclaims are true, it also means scum will probably be forced to shoot from that pool of players to avoid leaving too much prob-innocents in endgame.

A potential roleblocker for scum is something to worry about, but it doesn't make sense to leave Sean alive if they were capable of blocking Snow and killing Sean. This would incriminate Snow the next day for failing to save Sean, and they don't run the risk of being caught with a gun. This means scum probably don't have roleblocker as their power, unless Sean is scum himself.

I think a godfather/priest (something investigation immune) might be an option. But if there is an SK, he is probably more likely to get that perk over the mafia team. That seems kind of bastardly as a mod to give someone a gunfinding role if it can only find 1/3 or 2/4 of the scum. So, I think the scum must have some other power like a rolecop or even Budja's role makes sense as a scum power.

I think if other people suspect Budja as the lying powerrole, we have a way of potentially catching him or proving him innocent. Here is a refined plan;

1) Lynch one of cruelty or Wings
2) SpyreX flips a coin. Either protects me or stays home.
3) Budja motion detects SpyreX
4) Snow protects Sean
5) Sean investigates Budja
6) Hoopla investigates the other of cruelty/Wings

If Budja doesn't die, then he has to claim what SpyreX did, and then be cleared by Sean.

This has a 50% chance of catching him out if he lied about his role (if SpyreX lives), and 100% chance of catching him if Sean isn't scum and mafia don't have a RB/GF. I've described why all of those situations are unlikely, so this is why I think the results for this particular set of interactions might actually prove/disprove someone.

Because if Budja is in fact town, it means scum will NK him tonight or have to put up with a confirmed innocent tomorrow, which then forces their kill the next night. So, we can either catch Budja as scum, or use him as NK bait. Thoughts on this use of night choices?
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Post Post #451 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 3:05 am

Post by Hoopla »

Unvote, vote: cruelty


New preferred lynch choice.
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Post Post #452 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 3:17 am

Post by don_johnson »

the big lettering has me convinced.

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Post Post #453 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 3:24 am

Post by Hoopla »

Hey don, what are your thoughts on what we should do for the night choices?
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Post Post #454 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 3:52 am

Post by Sotty7 »

I'm not seeing an issue with those new night choices Hoopla. I'm fine with that plan. I'm not much of a setup breaker like this myself, but I don't see any flaws.
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Post Post #455 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 4:57 am

Post by Hoopla »

Well, I think we're stuck until we hear more from Snow, Sean, Wings and Cue.

Mod:
Can we get a round of prods of those players?
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Post Post #456 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 7:27 am

Post by Snow White »

No need to prod. Ill do a read and then post any worthwhile thoughts.
I like ignorant people.
Cause they dont talk to me, and i dont wanna be talked to.
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Post Post #457 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 7:47 am

Post by SpyreX »

The new set makes sense. There's a couple scenarios that are far fetched that are going to be scum wins but I'm not going to sweat them
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Post Post #458 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:05 am

Post by Snow White »

People i most indefinately believe are innocent:
Myself.
SpyreX.

People who im leaning to as innocents:
Hoopla. Claiming a FBI agent when only one kill? Riskée.

People who are a little shaky:
DisgruntledSean.
Sotty.

People who are just sitting on the safety line.
Budja.
Cruelty.
With a quick iso it looks as thought Budja has been buddying up to Cruelty. I hate tag teams. Especially when i dont have a good feel from them.

People i dont like:
TeWuicah
WOW.
DJ.

Just because i probably havent heard enough from them.

I like Hoopla's reason as to why she investigated Sotty. Im willing to put a very fragile trust in her.
I'd advocate a no lynch today because quite frankly im in the dark atm trying to figure out who is more ilk to be anti town. I know alota people may disagree with me but so sue me.
I think correlating who SpyreX and I will protect is good for town. I mean, we're the only ones standing between scum and PR's. Just dictate to me who i should pprotect and i will most happily oblige.
I will protect Sean tonight.
Im happy with SyreX deciding himself because its orly like a coin toss up. lol.
The plan Hoopla has proposed seems sound? Ill bend to it.

Vote Cruelty
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Cause they dont talk to me, and i dont wanna be talked to.
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Post Post #459 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:32 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Hey!

So I am actually happy with all the claims because they support my suspicions from my Day 1 readings. During Day 1, I felt the Iceman (DJ) wagon was stalled by some players who favored the DS wagon. Having known the results of Day 1, the inaction on the Iceman (DJ) wagon felt extra scummy since that was the only wagon that didn't get pushed towards a role claim. As soon as DJ replaced in, the Iceman (DJ) wagon dissipated as though everyone forgot about Iceman's major contradiction early on about his Riddick vote. You would think, given the circumstances and the culture of this particular player pool, that the Iceman wagon would have at least been pushed to a role claim rather than be shifted to two other players--SW and Sidekick. That is why I think DJ could be a possible "Scum Investigation-Immune Role."

Moving on...

The person claiming a PR today that I am most inclined to distrust is Hoopla. She was actually on my scum list before the claim and the person she choose to investigate was also on my scum list lol. As it turns out, all three scummies are teaming up on Cruelty right now! Lets look at the facts...

Hoopla ISO 27


She publicizes that she doesn't want to lynch DJ and Sotty. In other words, she doesn't find them scummy.

Yet...

Hoopla ISO 48


She chooses to "Investigate" Sotty. Quite a contradiction in reasoning from my point of view.

Hoopla ISO 25


Hoopla exclaims that DJ "has really lit up the Iceman slot with the townie goodness," even though DJ has only been in the game a short while and all of his content has been focused on Cruelty, Cruelty's RVS vote non the less. Now everybody ask yourself, is tunneling a town tell or a null tell, especially given the circumstances of the tunnel? Is Hoopla really justified in making this assumption? IMO, that tunnel alone was a null tell. The future buddying of Hoopla and DJ and their mutual attack on Cruelty is a scum tell to me.

More on the Hoopla-Sotty Hypo-Scum Team...

Hoopla ISO 3


Undermines practically everyone's reasoning, except for Sotty who she later suggests is town, even though you guys were only in the RVS...

Hoopla ISO 18
or Page 9

Looks like Hypo-scum Hoopla is coaching hypo-scum Sotty, pushing her to switch her vote from Iceman to DS. Subsequently, Sotty does, in fact, switch to DS.

Sotty all of Day 2
or ISO's 25, 29-31

Sotty basically goes along with everything Hoopla has said on Day 2.

Which brings me to my next point...
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Post Post #460 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:33 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Chapter 2: Insidious Plans


It was pretty inconvenient to the mafia for the all of the PR's to claim today, especially since two Macho Docs compliment a Gunsmith very nicely, lessening the chance that any of those claims could be a red herring. So since three players out of the ten remaining players are basically cleared, the mafia is faced with a huge dilemma. Claim VT and be sorted into the pool of VT's waiting to get policy lynched, or gambit and fake claim a PR while trying to "clear" your buddies.

Now lets assume DS, SW, and Spy are who they say they are and Hoopla and Sotty are a scum team. Also, lets assume that WoW and cruelty are town. Now lets look at Hoopla's plan for today and tonight:

Hoopla is assuming we are in a 3:1:8 setup and all claimed PR's are town. Since there is a quote unquote SK, Hoopla focuses her hunt on a potential SK rather than the mafia. That said, the pool of "lynchables" is...

WoW, Cruelty, Cue (Me), and DJ

*Though Sotty is a VT, she is excluded from Hoopla's pool of "lynchables" since he isn't the "SK."

Since DJ and I were "cleared" by the PR's, that leaves WoW and Cruelty.

Now take a moment to think for a second. Assuming we are in the 3:9 setup rather than the 3:1:8 setup, then we are one miss lynch away from MYLO.

10 total: 7 town vs 3 scum

miss lynch + 1 doc dies

8 total: 5 town vs 3 scum

MYLO so NL + last doc dies

7 total: 4 town vs 3 scum

LYLO

If Hoopla is in fact scum, then her policy lynch based on POE scheme would take us to MYLO while avoiding any scrutiny on her hypo-scum buddies.

Having said all of that, I would really like to test my Hoopla-Sotty scum buddy theory. Since there is potential that Hoopla isn't lying, I am going to vote Sotty based on Hoopla's apparent buddying of her. I guess what it boils down to is my skepticism that Hoopla actually investigated her based on various times throughout the game where she publicized a town read of Scotty.

so...

vote: Sotty
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Post Post #461 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:36 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Snow White wrote:People i dont like:
TeWuicah
Hey I don't mind if you don't like me :lol: but I replaced that dude. You can call me Cue for short.
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Post Post #462 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:44 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

julienvonwolfe wrote:
Vote Count No. 13: End of Day One


don_johnson (1) - DisgruntledSean
DisgruntledSean (3) - WingsOWisdom, Sidekick, TeWuicah
Sidekick (7) - Budja, Spyrex, Snow White, Hoopla, Riddick, Sotty7, don_johnson

Snow White (1) - Cruelty

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Sidekick, a vanilla townie, has been lynched. Send in night actions. Night will last 72 hours.


Something I forgot to add. Look at the ppl who voted to lynch Sidekick. Notice that 4 out of the 5 claimed PRs were part of that bandwagon. If anyone is skeptical about any of the claimed PRs, this is the wagon to look at. Why? Because FMPOV, it was ill-conceived and rushed, so it is likely that scummies were involved in it. In fact, I am willing to bet money that at least one of the scummies was part of that wagon.
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Post Post #463 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:51 am

Post by Sotty7 »

You're reaching Cuet. I have already aired my gut check of Hoop being a possible SK herself.

I have gone along with Hoop
and
Spy who seem to be doing the "lets break the game deal." I don't like this part of mafia really and I'm not too happy having it happen in what is supposed to be a normal game.

I also notice you don't have anything to say about the possible night choices Hoop laid out, so that means you are fine with them as well right?

If not speak up please.
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Post Post #464 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:52 am

Post by Sotty7 »

With that said, I am actually feeling town for Cuet. His paranoia seems healthy enough even if his case on me and Hoop as scum BBF's is poor.
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Post Post #465 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:56 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Sotty7 wrote:You're reaching Cuet. I have already aired my gut check of Hoop being a possible SK herself.

I have gone along with Hoop
and
Spy who seem to be doing the "lets break the game deal." I don't like this part of mafia really and I'm not too happy having it happen in what is supposed to be a normal game.

I also notice you don't have anything to say about the possible night choices Hoop laid out, so that means you are fine with them as well right?

If not speak up please.
Well of course you don't like this since I am voting you!

The night choices depend on what you flip. If you flip scum, then the PRs should obviously be on Hoopla. If you flip town, then we should follow Hoopla's plan to investigate Budja.
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Post Post #466 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:57 am

Post by SpyreX »

Cue I like your gusto. I think its ok though as it sits.
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Post Post #467 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:05 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

SpyreX wrote:Cue I like your gusto. I think its ok though as it sits.
You mean you are content following hypo-FBI Agent and her hypo scum buddys Sotty and DJ as they push for a hypo-miss lynch of Cruelty based on POE when said hypo-FBI Agent isn't even clear?

I dunno bout you guys, but I don't want to invest in a RL based solely on POE determined by an unclear. I think we need more substantial discussion of why Cruelty is "scummy" before we all sheep.

We have 10 days.

Hoopla your up first. Why is Cruelty so scummy to you?
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Post Post #468 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:07 am

Post by Sotty7 »

Cuetlachtli wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:You're reaching Cuet. I have already aired my gut check of Hoop being a possible SK herself.

I have gone along with Hoop
and
Spy who seem to be doing the "lets break the game deal." I don't like this part of mafia really and I'm not too happy having it happen in what is supposed to be a normal game.

I also notice you don't have anything to say about the possible night choices Hoop laid out, so that means you are fine with them as well right?

If not speak up please.
Well of course you don't like this since I am voting you!

The night choices depend on what you flip. If you flip scum, then the PRs should obviously be on Hoopla. If you flip town, then we should follow Hoopla's plan to investigate Budja.
So you just want to lynch me to make yourself feel better about Hoop's plan? That hurts man.

I say it is weak because you haven't actually picked up any scummy things myself or Hoop have done. You have just said "I see some buddying between these two so they must be scum" The only legit point you have is when Hoop pushed my vote onto Sean with her questioning. She was right to, which is why I switched. If you can explain why a) that's scummy and b) why I would need coaching in that spot, I'm all ears.

I personally don't think there has been half as much buddying between myself and hoop than there has between Spy and Hoop. Why nothing about that?

You should also take into account that mafia is a team game, even when you are a VT half of the game is figuring out who can trust and who you can't. Right now I am happy with Hoop so I am willing to go along with her plan. Sure I might be wrong, but if I am right the scum are shitting bricks because townies are working together, which is not what they want.
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Post Post #469 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:26 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Sotty7 wrote:
Cuetlachtli wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:You're reaching Cuet. I have already aired my gut check of Hoop being a possible SK herself.

I have gone along with Hoop
and
Spy who seem to be doing the "lets break the game deal." I don't like this part of mafia really and I'm not too happy having it happen in what is supposed to be a normal game.

I also notice you don't have anything to say about the possible night choices Hoop laid out, so that means you are fine with them as well right?

If not speak up please.
Well of course you don't like this since I am voting you!

The night choices depend on what you flip. If you flip scum, then the PRs should obviously be on Hoopla. If you flip town, then we should follow Hoopla's plan to investigate Budja.
So you just want to lynch me to make yourself feel better about Hoop's plan? That hurts man.

I say it is weak because you haven't actually picked up any scummy things myself or Hoop have done. You have just said "I see some buddying between these two so they must be scum" The only legit point you have is when Hoop pushed my vote onto Sean with her questioning. She was right to, which is why I switched. If you can explain why a) that's scummy and b) why I would need coaching in that spot, I'm all ears.

I personally don't think there has been half as much buddying between myself and hoop than there has between Spy and Hoop. Why nothing about that?

You should also take into account that mafia is a team game, even when you are a VT half of the game is figuring out who can trust and who you can't. Right now I am happy with Hoop so I am willing to go along with her plan. Sure I might be wrong, but if I am right the scum are shitting bricks because townies are working together, which is not what they want.
Why are you scummy?
  • 1. Well in your ISO 6, you say Hoopla is town, while in her ISO she says your town like 3 times, which supports my scum-buddy argument.

    2. You have been on every major wagon.

    3. You didn't push DJ (Iceman) for a claim even though you pushed SW, DS, and Sidekick for claims.

    4. When hypo-scum buddies DJ and Hoopla attacked Cruelty, you followed suit. (This was on D1 to be exact.)

    5. Hypo-scum buddy Hoopla investigating you even though she has said you are town a number of times.
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Post Post #470 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:33 am

Post by Sotty7 »

This is all scum by association though. What individual scummy things have I done? Has Hoop done, has DJ done?

My memory tells me that DJ's slot wasn't run up to lynch-1, but I will have to look that up again to be sure. Why is calling someone town scummy?

And why are you ignoring Spy/Hoop?
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Post Post #471 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:43 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Sotty7 wrote:This is all scum by association though. What individual scummy things have I done? Has Hoop done, has DJ done?

My memory tells me that DJ's slot wasn't run up to lynch-1, but I will have to look that up again to be sure. Why is calling someone town scummy?

And why are you ignoring Spy/Hoop?
If you assume that Spy and SW are Macho Docs, then there can't be a Spy/Hoop scum buddy team.

I think calling someone town with very little evidence scummy. And I find "investigating" someone you think is town very scummy!

Also, DJ was pushed to lynch-1 and then you unvoted and voted for Sean! And even though you found Ice scummy (Post Subject 216), you never returned your vote to him after Sean claimed to be a Gun Smith.
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Post Post #472 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:44 am

Post by Cuetlachtli »

Taking a break from MS for a bit. When I return I will post the scummy things that Hoopla has done.
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Post Post #473 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 10:24 am

Post by Sotty7 »

Cuetlachtli wrote:I think calling someone town with very little evidence scummy.
And I find "investigating" someone you think is town very scummy!
The bold is actually a good point.

But
why
is calling someone town scummy?
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Post Post #474 (ISO) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 10:34 am

Post by don_johnson »

cue: i'm not scum so i don't agree with what you are saying. i have been having difficulty keeping up with this game due to rl, but i recall entering this game and pouring out some serious posts. there was little reason to push me to a claim on day 1 other than ice's dumb move. i don't like sotty's attitude, but i always seem to think sotty is scum when they're not. i do like sotty 468. you seem to be playing the part of the "brick shitting" mafia from my pov. and for anyone looking to meta me, don't bother. i'm a wild man.
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