Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)

[Budja]

Well, Cue is town.

The threat of a bus-driver or similar role is there, so that is the player we hope to take out today.

SK's are usually compulsive, so we ought to know if an SK exists or not soon. If so, Hoopla is prob town.

@Spy, "weak tracker", but note this:
[quote=JVW]note that I randomize night actions if a player flakes at night[/quote]
So, Cue is very,very likely vanilla even if scum.

Cruelty is still playing, Wings has only commented on the town ice/DS wagons. I really think Wings is a much better choice here (repeating myself, I know).

Perhaps:
go with the plan if we kill busdriver/simular threat role
else we act as we please.

[don_johnson]

is wings active on the site? if not, we may need a replacement.

[julienvonwolfe]

Vote Count No. 16

WingsOWisdom (2) - Budja, Spyrex
Cruelty (3) - Sotty7, Hoopla, don_johnson
Sotty7 (1) - Cuetlachtli
Hoopla (1) - Cruelty

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Not Voting: DisgruntledSean, WingsOWisdom, Snow White

Well, I think we're stuck until we hear more from Snow, Sean, Wings and Cue.

Mod:

Can we get a round of prods of those players?

Prodding Sean and Wings.

Deadline

[cruelty]

vote hoopla

thought i already was.

added to votecount

[SpyreX]

Yo Mod I think there be an issue with thine votecount

1+1 = 2, whatever next?

[Hoopla]

Here are some FACTS Hoopla:

1. You have said Sotty is town on numerous occasions.

2. You have even "coached" her. When Iceman (DJ) was put at L-1 by Cruelty, you suggested that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently did. [Page 9, Post 215]

3. Your justification for voting Sotty is that she "flew under the radar." Sotty has been on every major lynch wagon except the SW one. How is that flying under the radar?

4. Sotty is perfectly content with following your lead today. She isn't even slightly skeptical of your alignment or that your plans could be an act of deception.

1. By my count, I only called her town once, which was in post 63.

2. How is it coaching? If anything, it is mild suspicion for a weird action, which I point out;

Ugh... Don't like that vote.

Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?

Also:

It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.

Very much this.

What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?

It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.

Unless you're going to explain how me coaching a player from 2005 from one prob-town's wagon to another town wagon makes sense, your point isn't substancial.

Why

am I more likely to be scum because of this? Don't just put coaching in inverted commas and expect it to explain itself.

3. Flying under the radar is more attributed to playstyle and posting frequency, than wagon stances imo. But you can have that point.

4. Sure she has - she thinks I'm potentially an SK.

~~

If you can't get me or Sotty lynched today, do you think it is worth using our nightactions (gunsmith) on Sotty to attempt to credit/discredit your theory? Because if you are going to discount nightactions as wifom and prone to extreme manipulation, I'd rather go with my plan to prove/disprove Budja. Your call.

[Hoopla]

I'd much rather see the ye ol fahsioned Hoopla-huntin' on the VT's honestly.

You say this as if I was always a badass scumhunter.

My line of thinking is;

1. I am not lynching any powerrole today, as these roles are more likely to be true than VT's. If anyone wants to dispute this point, they need to come up with a scenario that involves 2 or more of the powerroles as scum. If this isn't plausible, we have a much higher chance of lynching scum in the VT's.

2. I am not lynching Don. He does not have a gun. Mafia members usually have guns. It is not worth wasting a lynch on him out of paranoia, because we only get 1-2 more mislynches.

3. I am not lynching Cue. He did not go anywhere last night. He could be a goon that didn't perform a kill, but again, this is unlikely and not worth wasting a lynch on. His attack on me also feels quite town.

4. I am not lynching Sotty, because if there is an SK, it is not her. She still has a decent chance of being scum due to the limited places they could be, but I'd rather lynch someone who has a chance of being SK or mafia.

5. That leaves Wings or cruelty.

6. At the end of Day 1, I put my vote on cruelty when we were scrambling for a lynch on the basis that I thought all those suspecting him were pro-town. I feel similarly now, with myself and Don and Snow being advocates for his lynch. Also, the main wagons on D1 were Don, Snow, Sean, Sidekick (all town it seems) - I think it is suspicious how the potential cruelty wagon was quashed in favour of the other options we pursued that day.

Wings is lurking, which I don't like, but I feel similarly to SpyreX in regards to cruelty's 485. It sounds like scum flailing, pissed off because he is the best lynch without doing anything wrong. I've also had games where I've been busted by a lucky investigation or something else I had no control over, and you feel cheated. I don't know. It doesn't seem like a town reaction.

I heavily endorse competing wagons for today though between Wings and cruelty, as I think this could be worthwhile information later in the game when we have more flips. I'm in favour of cruelty, though.

[Budja]

^ Those not voting wings/cruelty should take note of Hoopla's point 1-5.

(Although I'm on the other side on the cruelty/wings wagon)

Uh, thats all, I'm really just waiting for our inactives to chip in and vote.

[cruelty]

Snow's mad at me because I called her breadcrumbing a joke (which it was) and don's fuming because I had the audacity to laugh at his attack on my RVS. It's not as though you have a bunch of people with overwhelming cases on me, you have two people who have good

personal

reasons to want me gone, and you're chucking your vote in with them because, well, it's good to have buddies. Oh, I mean, you're presenting a consolidated town in the face of the dangerous scum threat that I pose.


Since we've established that you don't have a scumread on me (if you did I'd like to think that you'd mention it at some point) then I'm trying to work out why you'd endorse removing an active player (regardless of alignment) over a non-contributing lurker. Surely it's a smarter play to remove a lurker - especially when that lynch will also fit perfectly into your masterplan?

Wings is lurking, which I don't like, but I feel similarly to SpyreX in regards to cruelty's 485.

WingsOWisdom (1) - Budja,

Spyrex

He must feel pretty damn strongly about it. You two must be quite tight buddies huh. Or at least, you'd like to be.

[Hoopla]

Since we've established that you don't have a scumread on me (if you did I'd like to think that you'd mention it at some point) then I'm trying to work out why you'd endorse removing an active player (regardless of alignment) over a non-contributing lurker. Surely it's a smarter play to remove a lurker - especially when that lynch will also fit perfectly into your masterplan?

Valid point - all else being equal, lynching a lurker over an active player is generally a good idea. But I don't think things are equal. Before your post in 485, it would have held a lot more weight. Also, by process of elimination it means you each have very good individual chances of being scum, better than even I would say. If that is true, cases of town value are

second

to cases of scum value, because there is a higher chance of you being aligned with scum. I'm happy to debate this point if you feel these are unfair odds.

[cruelty]

ah yes, 485, the post that people are lining up to shoot me over.

i mean i think we can be relatively certain that WoW (or her replacement) will come steaming in and use it as a reason to get me lynched, but most everyone else (bar sean) is active and tbh, it doesn't seem to be that much of a deal breaker.


and honestly, if that's all you have (and it seems to be, you're not exactly presenting an ironclad case here) - an expression of frustration that there's a distinct possibility i get lynched without even getting to really play the game [imo the game starts for real at day 2] and without a case on me, then it doesn't bode well for town if everyone else continues to passively sit by and let you drag them around.

Also, by process of elimination it means you each have very good individual chances of being scum, better than even I would say. If that is true, cases of town value are second to cases of scum value, because there is a higher chance of you being aligned with scum

uhh what?

we have equal chances of being scum, but you're... wait what??

value as town or scum is irrelevant when one of the two players in question isn't actually playing AND as you have admitted, all things are equal.

Before your post in 485, it would have held a lot more weight.

back to this.

you've been after me (WITHOUT a scumread) since just before the end of day one based on what

other players

are doing/saying. there isn't a single instance of original cruelty-is-scum thought coming from you UNTIL my 485, which you're now all over. opportunism at it's finest.

your attack on 485 would (ironically) hold a lot more weight if it was backed up by a pre-existing case, which, uhh, it's not. it's not even backed up by

suspicion

, merely a logical deduction based on the possibly flawed premise that all our PRs are for real and the votes of other players, one of which isn't even cleared (and whose original slot was under very heavy fire for being scummy early in the day).

i mean i don't get it, you're tunneled on me but in a bizarre twist of events you're not suspicious of me until i get aggravated that i'm fairly likely to end up a sacrificial lamb to either a misguided town or a puppet master. then all of a sudden it's like someone supplied you with ammo and.. what? you waffle on about something to do with equality, alignment and.. yeah i dunno. a bunch of junk that doesn't really mean anything other than you wanting to underline your dramatically and suddenly realised point (that i'm scummy because i'm frustrated).



ps: can someone else start posting, i feel like this back and forth isn't really getting anywhere, and i'd love for people to start actually talking so that if i -do- have to play the martyr, there's some discussion to analyse tomorrow (bc honestly i'm not putting a lot of faith in the pr brigade).

[Hoopla]

Cruelty, give me a scenario where more than one of the powerroles are feasibly lying?

[cruelty]

eh?

you're an unverifiable role (odds are fbi agent will show a gun, we don't have a cop to clear you and there's zero evidence of an sk thus far) + budja's a role that i've never heard of. i don't really think it's hugely implausible that you're both lying.


how about you give me a scenario where i'm plausibly scummy that isn't founded on a) someone else's votes and b) a post that post-dates your desire to lynch me? i've been asking since.. well, since your original vote on me at the end of day one.


(btw it's awesome that you're ignoring like 95% of what i'm saying)

[Hoopla]

I've already said you're not explicitely scummy - the additional reasons aren't meant to be a 'case', they are meant to show why I am willing to you over Wings. If it weren't for this massclaim boxing you in via process of elimination, I would not be rallying for your lynch. You are not scummy enough to be lynched in normal circumstances - you seem to be implying that I must have a case where you are all-round scummy to be able to lynch you. And I don't.

My 'case' is a process of elimination. You are scummy by default, due to other players having something that clears them/could potentially clear them/could clear others. This is none of your doing, and if you are innocent and have been framed by the numbers, I am sorry, but I am playing the odds.

There is no way in the world we are lynching Spyre, Snow, Sean, Cue, Don today. I think Budja or myself are possible NK-bait because we are both roles that can expose lying vanillas - so the scum might get rid of us without having to waste a lynch (the vanillas don't have that option). Sotty has been cleared of being an SK (if there is one in the game) - and I'm offering you and Cue the chance to rework night actions, but neither of you want to take it. My plan isn't gospel, but we are going to coordinate our actions to try and catch someone out or prove them innocent. If you have ideas how we can do it better let me know, but today, you or Wings need to be lynched.

I wouldn't lose sleep if Wings went today, but I'm going to need convincing. The facts are, vanillas have a higher chance of being scum overall, and we have two semi-cleared. This gives very good odds for you, Wings and Sotty of being scum, and we'd be idiots not to take this chance.

[Hoopla]

Okay, here are your powerroles:

- 2x Macho Doctor
- 1x Gunsmith

Balance a hypothetical set-up with at least 3 scum using only these powerroles for town.

[Cuetlachtli]

Okay, here are your powerroles:

- 2x Macho Doctor
- 1x Gunsmith

Balance a hypothetical set-up with at least 3 scum using only these powerroles for town.

2x Goonies

1x Gun Inventor


For the record, I think we are in a 3:9 setup and I do find it improbable that there are more than three town PRs. That said, the supposed SK could have no killed, shot Riddick, or shot SW. So Hoopla, if you are scum, that was a pretty good fake claim.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hoopla ISO 27

Open to lynching:

Cruelty, Snow White, Budja

Not Open to lynching:

DisgrustledSean, don_johnson,

Sotty7

, Riddick

Only if necessary:

Sidekick, WingsOWisdom, TeWuicah, SpyreX

"Not Open to lynching" means "I think they are town." So that is two times you said Sotty was town. Once at the start of the day and once towards the end of the day. You would think that you wouldn't investigate someone who you thought was town the whole game...

[Cuetlachtli]

Here are some FACTS Hoopla:

1. You have said Sotty is town on numerous occasions.

2. You have even "coached" her. When Iceman (DJ) was put at L-1 by Cruelty, you suggested that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently did. [Page 9, Post 215]

3. Your justification for voting Sotty is that she "flew under the radar." Sotty has been on every major lynch wagon except the SW one. How is that flying under the radar?

4. Sotty is perfectly content with following your lead today. She isn't even slightly skeptical of your alignment or that your plans could be an act of deception.

1. By my count, I only called her town once, which was in post 63.

2. How is it coaching? If anything, it is mild suspicion for a weird action, which I point out;

Ugh... Don't like that vote.

Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?

Also:

It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.

Very much this.

What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?

It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.

Unless you're going to explain how me coaching a player from 2005 from one prob-town's wagon to another town wagon makes sense, your point isn't substancial.

Why

am I more likely to be scum because of this? Don't just put coaching in inverted commas and expect it to explain itself.

3. Flying under the radar is more attributed to playstyle and posting frequency, than wagon stances imo. But you can have that point.

4. Sure she has - she thinks I'm potentially an SK.

~~

If you can't get me or Sotty lynched today, do you think it is worth using our nightactions (gunsmith) on Sotty to attempt to credit/discredit your theory? Because if you are going to discount nightactions as wifom and prone to extreme manipulation, I'd rather go with my plan to prove/disprove Budja. Your call.

2. If you are part of hypo-scum team Hoopla, Sotty, and DJ; then the posts that I pointed out looks like Sotty attempting to deflect attention away from DJ and you suggesting, in a discreet fashion, that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently does! In order for this hypo-scum team theory to not have any weight to me, I need to know Sotty's alignment.

*Note, experience or age does not exempt a player from being coached by a less experienced or younger player. IMO, strong leadership qualities out-weigh experience or age.

4. She said you could be SK after you proposed that there is a SK. IMO, this could be distancing.


About the night actions, I am not too concerned with them right now. I actually wouldn't mine an semi-uncoordinated approach to the night where each PR chooses to investigate at his own discretion. This could help prevent some WIFOM. Of course, we would still have to coordinate who our docs protect.

[Hoopla]

I think you are putting way too much stock in a Day 1 read, a read that references Sotty as town on page 3 - and an implied 'town' read later on. Being open to lynching someone or not doesn't correlate to them being a viable investigation target. I was open to lynching cruelty or Snow, but they would have made rubbish investigation targets (see my post where I explain in detail the rationale for my decision).

I thought Sotty was town (again Day 1 read, but I digress), but her play also veered toward self-preservation which could have been an SK sign. Someone like Riddick for example was the opposite and would have made a rubbish target, because he was so openly aggressive. What would you have looked for in an SK?

Seriously though, you are nitpicking, and turning this debate into a circle, because I feel like I've already said pretty much the same things.

~~

Cue, that is nowhere near a balanced set-up.

~~

Again, what do you think about Sean targeting Sotty tonight?

[Hoopla]

2. If you are part of hypo-scum team Hoopla, Sotty, and DJ; then the posts that I pointed out looks like Sotty attempting to deflect attention away from DJ and you suggesting, in a discreet fashion, that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently does! In order for this hypo-scum team theory to not have any weight to me, I need to know Sotty's alignment.

What's the point in doing

any

actions at night if you're going to IGNORE RESULTS. DJ HAS NO GUN. Stop trying to put suspicion on him. That is such a longshot it's not funny.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hoopla, the more times you repeat something, the more likely someone is to remember it. If something happens to me (get NKed or replaceout) I want people to remember my arguments today and consider a Hoopla-Sotty-DJ scum team later on.

In a past game I was in, I speculated about a possible scum team on Day 1, which turned out to actually be the scum team! Unfortunately, the scum killed me Night 1 and the town forgot about my arguments, so we ended up losing.

Look, Hoopla, do you even for one second consider lynching Sotty?


Also, does anybody else feel its weird that half the town (Spy, SW, Budja, Hoopla, Sotty) is calling me town even though my predecessors lurked/were inactive and my hypo-scum team theory is deemed to be "out there?"

[Cuetlachtli]

What's the point in doing

any

actions at night if you're going to IGNORE RESULTS. DJ HAS NO GUN. Stop trying to put suspicion on him. That is such a longshot it's not funny.

You don't think there is any possibility that Sean's report was manipulated or DJ is immune to investigations?

Are you suggesting that DJ is clear and that he now has the green light to act how ever he wants, including not giving any reasons for his last three votes?

If every PR is legit, don't you think the scum also have PRs capable of deceiving the town's PRs?

Or do you think we are facing a goon army?

[Hoopla]

1. Hoopla, the more times you repeat something, the more likely someone is to remember it. If something happens to me (get NKed or replaceout) I want people to remember my arguments today and consider a Hoopla-Sotty-DJ scum team later on.

2. In a past game I was in, I speculated about a possible scum team on Day 1, which turned out to actually be the scum team! Unfortunately, the scum killed me Night 1 and the town forgot about my arguments, so we ended up losing.

3. Look, Hoopla, do you even for one second consider lynching Sotty?


4. Also, does anybody else feel its weird that half the town (Spy, SW, Budja, Hoopla, Sotty) is calling me town even though my predecessors lurked/were inactive and my hypo-scum team theory is deemed to be "out there?"

1. Firstly, that is a terrible playstyle to develop. Nobody wants to play a game where lynches are decided by whoever says the same thing over and over the most. If you make succinct, logical, insightful posts, they will stand alone regardless of any continuous bleating.

2. So, you got lucky? If Sidekick posted her top 3 scum just before she died, I doubt I'd be listening to them much. This is because NEW evidence has surfaced, and will always continue to surface. I don't care who you are, nobody can pick regularly pick a scumteam Day 1 based on inthread posts and nothing else. We should always be using the most reliable forms of evidence we have. For example, a cop gets a guilty on someone N1, I will not ignore it D2 if their posts looked town D1. It'd take a serious piece of luck or inflated ego to think they're good enough to guess the slim chance when there might be a GF/Busdriver involved.

3. I have considered it, and the payoff isn't worth it in my mind, because I have knowledge there is probably an SK out there and it isn't Sotty. Wings/cruelty overlap into both mafia/SK possibilities.

4. You're being called town BECAUSE YOU WENT NOWHERE LAST NIGHT. This is the sort of evidence people use to make good judgments on alignment. And it's the sort of evidence you're ignoring in regards to Don.

[Hoopla]

1. You don't think there is any possibility that Sean's report was manipulated or DJ is immune to investigations?

Are you suggesting that DJ is clear and that he now has the green light to act how ever he wants, including not giving any reasons for his last three votes?

If every PR is legit, don't you think the scum also have PRs capable of deceiving the town's PRs?

Or do you think we are facing a goon army?

Yes it is possible DJ has investigation immunity or something like that. Is it likelier than Wings or cruelty being scum? No. Sotty? No. Budja? No. You? No. Come on, Cue. This is stupid. Powerroles are involved in the game to improve town's chances of winning. If you are going to ignore the one piece of information likeliest to help us, then you're doing it wrong. Town's won't win if everyone plays like you, because you are effectively playing in a 3:9 vanilla set-up where power doesn't count because it

could

be susceptible to something hidden.

Is there a chance of scum having some other role we don't know about? Sure. But you have no idea what it is, even if they have one, and would prefer living in crackpot theory land because you're either too scared to trust anything in the game, or you genuinely think your reads are stellar and above all others and you've broken the game. I don't care which it is, but your theory is a longshot, and easily proved/disproved without needing to make a suboptimal play today.

My personal theory is Budja is a/the scum powerrole, which makes a pretty damn balanced set-up (including an SK) to me. But it isn't an optimal play now to lynch Budja based on the real evidence we have.

[Sotty7]

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. I have some kind of issue with my stomach, blegh, so bare with me. I'm trying to be as active as possible.

= = = = =

cruelty my vote is on you over Wings because of your shady actions surrounding your vote on Ice while ignoring Sean (yes I still can't let that go.) Also your reaction to Don's pressure wasn't great, particularly the part where you tried to say Don targeted you in a pre-meditated way despite not being one of the lead wagons when he replaced in. It was like you were tying to discredit him any way you could. That's not a townie reaction.

You keep going on about WoW being absent, is that scummy? Do you want us to lynch a lurker? Do you think I should be the lynch? Why, why not? I get you think Hoop is scum, but you seem to be appealing to the hate of lurking as a way to save yourself. I'm not getting it.

I am willing to look at Hoop as a lynch come tomorrow, but right now I think we should stick to the pool of VT's and see what shakes out at night. I am not sold on Hoopla's claim but I do think Bujda's is scummier. Mainly because I don't see how finding out if a townie has a night action helps town. This role works a lot better as scum and if we are to believe the other power roles then a scum role cop isn't a stretch. Also Budja has been really on the outside of this game, barely committing on much of anything. I really like him as scum.

Scum hunting > PRs any day of the week.

But you have yet to show me why I am scummy outside of Hoopla. Feel free to do that (HINT: Saying it over over doesn't make it true. Give me a case)

Also that quote might have had more pull if you hadn't basically thrown out the Spy/Hoop budding because spy has

claimed a power role

I'm also pretty sad that you really think I still need coaching despite my join date. But I think that is just my small ego dying a little. Ha! Hoop covers this (<3) as you can tell I am reading as I type.

"Not Open to lynching" means "I think they are town."

Um no it doesn't. I don't want to lynch Hoop today but I don't think she is town.

And yeah, pretty much what Hoop said in the post above me. More budding for you Cue.