Riddle Me This! NY111 - mafia dead - Town wins!

[Cove]

@mod: V/LA until Tuesday, camping for the long weekend

May get the chance to check in while on transit, but can't guarantee anything.

[Yosarian2]

'Grats, dude.

Thanks.

Anyway, I understand Fonz's case on Scott, but I'm having a little trouble with the fact that at the time I agreed with a fairly high number of the posts Scot made against Richard and against the mipe wagon; they may have been wrong, but they very closely mirrored my own thinking at the time, and so I'm having trouble seeing Scot as all that likely to be scum right now.

I'd much rather vote Cove then Scot right now; not so much because of anything he's done, but mostly because of the scum read I had on his predecessor.

Vote:Cove

[farside22]

What three letters make a man of a boy?

Age

vote count:

don_johnson (1) Fonz
Mr chaos (1) don_Johnson
Scotmany (4) inHimshallibe, Anon, Cove, VasudeVa
Cove (2) scotmany12, Yosairan

Not voting:

iamausername
RichardGHP
Mr. Chaos
DizzyIzzyB
Mipe
dahill

With 14 alive it will take 8 to lynch
Deadline June 6th, 10:07pm PST

[Mr. Chaos]

I'll need to look at Cove and PE first, but I'm really disliking the scot wagon. I'll get more on that in a bit.

Also, for discussion: Any idea why anon and richard didnt get nk'd last night? Tad bit odd there, IMO.

[Yosarian2]

I'll need to look at Cove and PE first, but I'm really disliking the scot wagon. I'll get more on that in a bit.

Also, for discussion: Any idea why anon and richard didnt get nk'd last night? Tad bit odd there, IMO.

Meh. A tracker has a pretty small chance of catching the scum who's making the kill in the act on any given night; with, what, 16 people alive or whatever we had last night, it's only a 1/16 chance. And if Richard is an even night tracker, only gets 1 chance to track; he won't get another chance unless he survives to day 5.

If he is telling the truth, I don't really think the scum would be so worried about his ability that they would feel an urgant need to kill him, especially if they felt like they still might have a chance to lynch him instead.

[RichardGHP]

Mafia probably figured that one of us would be protected and didn't want to take the gamble.

If Anon is for real, they probably figured he would hit town
And I'm guessing they were willing to gamble on my tracking target. I figure we only have 2 or 3 scum left (anything more would be edging on unbalanced). This is the time of the game where we need to look at everyone still alive and possible associates.

2 scum + 2 town deaths every night = 3 Mislynches by my own quick calculation. 3 scum + 2 town deaths every night = 2 Mislynches then? I never spent much time figuring out the fine details but I'm fairly confident that we have at least 2 mislynches, and we have two scum down by Day 3.

@scotmany, Yos: Who is/are Cove's buddy/buddies?

[The Fonz]

While I don't think fonz's case on me was good at all, I do agree with him that we should look at those that were not on either of the scum wagons.

I love how, in this post, Scot basically follows the exact same thought process I did, except that he eliminates himself for obvious reasons rather than eliminating Cove because PE's push on mipe looked genuine, and then concludes that my case is terrible.

says the ksun lynch was for policy reasons which is why he stayed off of it, while he himself advocated policy lynching mipe in this post:

@Quag: Do you want to carry a player like mipe until later? His early game, before anyone really pointed a finger, was just bandwagon for the sake of bandwagon. Now he's recently become increasingly oblivious to how mafia is to be played.

Now, this is a pretty good reason to be voting Cove. The defence, I suppose, since Paltry isn't here to offer one himself, would be that he was not advocating policy lynching mipe; he claimed to find mipe scummy for his change in behaviour under pressure. The whole 'do you really to carry a player like mipe' thing could be seen as just an addendum.

His initial vote for mipe is based on this:

Scum-tactic 1: Get town lynched.
Scum-tactic 2: Emulate your town play.
Scum-tactic 3: Distance yourself from mislynches.
I don't have any meta on anyone, however I see mipe doing #1 and #3 possibly.

[quote="PaltryExcuse"The unhelpfulness after #9 is a null-tell due to his complacency and lack of effort, but before that we have a player who was clearly anti-town and unrepentantly jumping on the largest bandwagon.

the case on mipe isn't foolproof, it's based on anti-town bandwagon-y behaviour and then the sudden change in attitude once he's being pressure. I think he's scum, but 'proof' will never be there.

My strategy day 1 as town: Find someone who doesn't appear to be helping town in the slightest, aka appears to be coasting. Coasting, as you might agree, is a sign of scumittude. Throw my vote at them and see how they react. Depending on if I think it is a scummy reaction or not, I keep my vote there.

PE is VERY consistent about his reasons for wanting to lynch mipe, and it isn't a policy lynch. When I mean 'he looks genuine' what I'm getting at is that he is the one player that consistently defends the mipe wagon, and insists that mipe is scum, even when the wind is blowing the other way and he's coming under some pressure for it.

However I'm not seeing where this mipewagon hate has come from. Why is someone so anti-town a bad wagon?

mipe wagon

ksun

- He's done nothing all game which gives me a null tell read on the guy. He's voted on wagons... and that's about it. I find his wagon to be a mixture of policy / deadline lynching.

However, I still struggle to see where mipe is antitown and ksun is not. The only thing I can muster is that Paltry thinks mipe is being

deliberately

unhelpful because he's been suspected, whereas ksun is just a VI. However, then I'm surprised he says antitown rather than scummy.

See Paltry's ISO 22 for his big defence of this basic point.

He still suspects mipe on D2, saying that he can't see mipe's change in behaviour coming from a town pov. This, imho, is townish, since clearly it was going to be very hard to convince anyone to lynch mipe on D2 after the ksun town flip.

Short version of this:

Paltry's behaviour around mipe, and the arguments he uses most of the time, definitely don't look like a policy lynch, and his overall 'I'm not voting a policy lynch when I see scum elsewhere' attitude seems like it could well come from town. Other people seemed to have less reason to be on mipe in the first place, and also jumped off when the momentum didn't seem to be with it anymore, whilst Paltry stays true to his stated read.

However, he clearly DOES appropriate policy-ynchesque language on a couple of occasions to try to convince people onto mipe.

________________________________________________________

Onto Cove vs Scot, and I HATE HATE HATE Cove's OMGUS accusation. Could be panicking scum, could just be n00b. Scot votes for a player slot, based around finding a wagon scummy that he said was bad at the time, and one of many who were voting him (a genuine omgus would have been more likely to hit me) and the omgus accusation- I just don't understand how anyone could really come to that conclusion. If he's town, Scot genuinely suspects Cove, and if he's scum, he sees Cove as a player on whom he can push a reasonable-sounding wagon likely to garner support. OMGUS is simply unnecessary to explain Scot's actions either way.

It doesn't, however, escape my notice that this is the first bit of proper scumhunting Scot has done all game. It still particularly sticks in my craw that Scot criticised the mipewagon but didn't expend the effort I think he could have done to attack specific players on it and try to develop a counterwagon- so it continues to look to me like he was trying to keep his nose clean.

So yeah, neither is a bad wagon, but don_johnson's attitude continues to stink, and posting solely to avoid prods is a scumtell, so the vote's sticking at least for now.

[The Fonz]

EBWOP to split out my actual opening comment, which seems to have got caught inside the quote box:

says the ksun lynch was for policy reasons which is why he stayed off of it, while he himself advocated policy lynching mipe in this post:

:
@Quag: Do you want to carry a player like mipe until later? His early game, before anyone really pointed a finger, was just bandwagon for the sake of bandwagon. Now he's recently become increasingly oblivious to how mafia is to be played.

Now, this is a pretty good reason to be voting Cove. The defence, I suppose, since Paltry isn't here to offer one himself, would be that he was not advocating policy lynching mipe; he claimed to find mipe scummy for his change in behaviour under pressure. The whole 'do you really to carry a player like mipe' thing could be seen as just an addendum.

[The Fonz]

So, yeah, stuff is cool.

[don_johnson]

posting to avoid prods is not a scumtell. this thread is uber long. if you'd rather i replace out then i will. i have/had other games taking presidence, i graduated last week and am currently job seeking and studying for my state exam. i have planned on getting into this thread, but i haven't found a large enough chunk of time. sorry.

[VasudeVa]

Sooo, are we lynching scummany12 yet?

[Yosarian2]

@scotmany, Yos: Who is/are Cove's buddy/buddies?

(shrug) I donno yet.

I can tell you that, if Cove flips scum, Vas is town (Cove's vote on Vas looks really opportunistic) and Mipe is town (PE's attack in mipe is one of the main things I found suspicious about his play.)

[Cove]

Onto Cove vs Scot, and I HATE HATE HATE Cove's OMGUS accusation. Could be panicking scum, could just be n00b. Scot votes for a player slot, based around finding a wagon scummy that he said was bad at the time, and one of many who were voting him (a genuine omgus would have been more likely to hit me) and the omgus accusation- I just don't understand how anyone could really come to that conclusion. If he's town, Scot genuinely suspects Cove, and if he's scum, he sees Cove as a player on whom he can push a reasonable-sounding wagon likely to garner support. OMGUS is simply unnecessary to explain Scot's actions either way.

With the OMGUS accusation, I was getting at the fact that less than 24 hours after my vote on scot, he decided to ISO PE for the first time (which I'm saying lead him to find someone he could try and push a lynch on, more on this later). I really don't think this is out of the realm of what OMGUS really stands for (I know it's not full blown OMGUS, which is why I didn't say it was full blown. I think I used the term slight but I can't check because the site takes 10mins to load a page right now). It is possible that it is coincidence, but I'm not so sure. One thing I know is that you don't have to be a noob, or be nervous scum, to get the impression that if a person decides to build a case against you very shortly after you vote them, there could very well be a hint of retaliation in there.

I don't understand what I'd be nervous about, either, as at the time it was one vote from suspected scum (and is now a second vote from someone I also suspect is scum).

I really don't think scot's attack on me is genuine. He had plenty of opportunity to weigh in on PE while he was still playing, and only decided now to attack (how strongly could he really feel?) and he provided analysis which he doesn't seem to believe in himself (only those off the scum wagons, when he claims The Fonz's case against him based on the same analysis is crap). He is clearly preying on others' suspicions to save his own skin and found the perfect candidate. I like my vote.

Yos: What is opportunistic about voting Vas? Why did you answer a question aimed at scot?

don: Why did you sign up to replace into this game if you have all of those commitments?

inHim: Waiting on that reread.

scot: Awaiting your response to Richard's question.

iamausername: Hello?

[The Fonz]

With the OMGUS accusation, I was getting at the fact that less than 24 hours after my vote on scot, he decided to ISO PE for the first time (which I'm saying lead him to find someone he could try and push a lynch on, more on this later). I really don't think this is out of the realm of what OMGUS really stands for (I know it's not full blown OMGUS, which is why I didn't say it was full blown. I think I used the term slight but I can't check because the site takes 10mins to load a page right now). It is possible that it is coincidence, but I'm not so sure. One thing I know is that you don't have to be a noob, or be nervous scum, to get the impression that if a person decides to build a case against you very shortly after you vote them, there could very well be a hint of retaliation in there.

Yeah, but, y'know... get over yourself. If Scot wanted to OMGUS, I'm the logical target. Most of those who had posted were voting Scot... is he supposed to avoid voting any of them for the purposes of not looking like OMGUS? Suspicion of you is entirely consistent with what he was saying on days one and two.

As for 'suddenly ISOing PE for the first time the day after I vote him,' well, the thing is, he hadn't really scumhunted before that. So anyone he attacks as a result of starting scumhunting, he's not really going to have attacked before, with the possible exception of Richard.

As for 'going for a convenient scapegoat to save his skin' I see little distinction between his play with regards to you, and your play with regards to him. Both of you, if town, are easy cases for scum to make- that is because both of you are

significantly scummy.

[The Fonz]

With the OMGUS accusation, I was getting at the fact that less than 24 hours after my vote on scot, he decided to ISO PE for the first time (which I'm saying lead him to find someone he could try and push a lynch on, more on this later). I really don't think this is out of the realm of what OMGUS really stands for (I know it's not full blown OMGUS, which is why I didn't say it was full blown. I think I used the term slight but I can't check because the site takes 10mins to load a page right now). It is possible that it is coincidence, but I'm not so sure. One thing I know is that you don't have to be a noob, or be nervous scum, to get the impression that if a person decides to build a case against you very shortly after you vote them, there could very well be a hint of retaliation in there.

Yeah, but, y'know... get over yourself. If Scot wanted to OMGUS, I'm the logical target. Most of those who had posted were voting Scot... is he supposed to avoid voting any of them for the purposes of not looking like OMGUS? Suspicion of you is entirely consistent with what he was saying on days one and two.

As for 'suddenly ISOing PE for the first time the day after I vote him,' well, the thing is, he hadn't really scumhunted before that. So anyone he attacks as a result of starting scumhunting, he's not really going to have attacked before, with the possible exception of Richard.

As for 'going for a convenient scapegoat to save his skin' I see little distinction between his play with regards to you, and your play with regards to him. Both of you, if town, are easy cases for scum to make- that is because both of you are

significantly scummy.

[farside22]

Iamasurename and Mipe have not picked up their prod. I will have to search for a replacement for them as well.
I started to advertise on my sig but if anyone knows anyone that want's to replace tell them to send me a line.
Thanks

[scotmany12]

I claimed the Fonz's case on me to be weak for his analysis of my vote on Vas, which I strongly disagreed with, and his focus on me lurking. I'd also argue that my push against Richard was clearly scumhunting. I never had a problem with focusing on people that didn't vote for either scum lynch.

Cove, I don't know how you can look at my vote and say that it is omgus. I found it unlikely that there wouldn't be at least one scum who stayed off both scum wagons. I can't see mipe being scum at all, and Yos also seems town. You were scummier than don.johnson in my eyes.

Who are Cove's buddies? Maybe inhim and Mr. Chaos. But those two are just off the top of my head. I really don't know right now.

[farside22]

Replacing DizzyIzzy is Amished.

Thanks for replacing. Still need to replace iamausername and Mipe

[Amished]

Howdy! Just confirming replacement; I'll read up as much as I can later tonight after I get home.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: What is opportunistic about voting Vas? Why did you answer a question aimed at scot?

Um...you do realize that Richard's question was specifically aimed at me too, don't you? If that's not what you mean, than I'm not sure what you do mean.

Anyway about Vas, your logic here where you voted for him seems...well, weak at best, i guess I'd say.:

(stuff not about Vas removed, with "..." to show where I removed stuff)

First of all, VasudeVa is a wagoning MACHINE. Look at how many times he is there on the list. I understand that he's pulling the newbie card, and I really agree that from my read through he has sincerely acted like one, but, I'm leaning towards newbie scum. One other thing to note on him right now is that he was wagoning all over the place on Day 1, then look at how many wagons he joins on Day 2, only one single wagon. I know it's WIFOM but I suspect his scum buddies suggested that he tone it down.

....

Of these three people I am most confident in my read of VasudeVa as the wagoning newbie scum who got told off by his scum buddies. I understand that our claimed tracker saw him do nothing last night, but that means even less in an Even/Odd game than in a normal game, so:

Cove votes VasudeVa

Another thing to note is that if there is another scum on the mipe wagon, I'm betting it's VasudeVa, as his vote really doesn't sell me:

I agree with Anon that mipe is the next best potential wagon so let's go there. springlullaby needs some attention too.

vote mipe

The meat of your case against Vas seems to be that...he voted for a bunch of different people on day 1, and then only voted 1 person on day 2. I don't at all see how either one of those behaviors is indicative of scum; I find your "scum buddies might have told him to vote less" theory or whatever it was pretty unlikely.

The last part, to me, really seems to be what your case on Vas is about: "Yeah, there might have been scum on the mipe wagon, but it's not me!" I also think it's kind of odd that you don't even mention Richard's night result in your post here; granted that a null tracker result dosn't prove anything at all, but I was kind of surprised you didn't even mention it.

[RichardGHP]

I'd also argue that my push against Richard was clearly scumhunting.

So let me get this straight... you presumably think I'm scum, yet you're voting Cove? WTF?

Vote: Scotmany

Gogo wagon.

[inHimshallibe]

One more day, please. I have an interview tomorrow! I've been so busy getting things arranged; mafia has just kind of been pushed to the back burner.

Glorious return tomorrow.

[RichardGHP]

I'm intrigued, what kind of interview?

[scotmany12]

I'd also argue that my push against Richard was clearly scumhunting.

So let me get this straight... you presumably think I'm scum, yet you're voting Cove? WTF?

Vote: Scotmany

Gogo wagon.

Um...no not at the moment. Because I believe your claim. You need to work on your reading comprehension. I was saying my push against you was scumhunting. No where did I say I currently think you are scum.

And even if I did think you were scum, it is possible for someone to think that 2 people are scum. Seriously dude.

[Cove]

Yos: Sorry, I completely didn't see the Yos tacked on after scot. Though I think you may also have missed where I said "I understand that our claimed tracker saw him do nothing last night, but that means even less in an Even/Odd game than in a normal game".

I still feel that excessive wagoning is more of a scum indicator than a town indicator, but what I failed to fully check before attacking Vas was how critical his vote was on the ksun wagon. I also didn't take into account meta with inHim, and the interactions with ksun on dahill1. I didn't see how my assumption that there was more than one scum on the Dizzy RVS wagon was that out to lunch, but I guess they avoided it for some reason.

This ties into your vote on me for PE's play: With the assumption that scum has been wagoning not quite fitting properly, I have to look at non-wagoners. My player spot happens to fall into that category, but I know PE's not scum, and on top of that he did seem pretty convinced mipe was scum as The Fonz mentions, and I'd like to point out that PE flaked before zoraster was even considered for lynch so we don't really know if he would have supported his lynch or not. That's about all I can really say about PE's play.

Gotta run now, will be back later.