NY 120: Flash mafia 2. GAME OVER

[Porochaz]

Goddamn it I see what Ive done. Thanks fishy, I put my reasons for disliking esp instead of richard there, I got mixed up, fair enough with your votes.

[Ythill]

Not really sure what is linear assumptions and congnitive dissonance.
Actually I'm not really sure what park'n jab with too wide net means either

Linear assumptions == evidence that you are suffering from confirmation bias. If you are town and trying to figure out this puzzle, then you are forced to make assumptions which will naturally expand (and hopefully be challenged and dismissed), eventually forming the web of assumptions upon which your end of day stance is based. For example, your explicit assumption is that UT is scum, yet in #140 you seem perplexed by MBF pooh-poohing four wagons including UT's. Shouldn't someone who suspects UT at least entertain the idea that MBF is a buddy? Many townies would have jumped all the way to that conclusion, but you didn't even seem to consider it.

Cognitive dissonance == having an opinion that a reasonable, truthful person would not have, given opinions stated prior and the evidence that has arisen between them. It's the big-daddy of behavioral tells, IMO. You dropped it between #117 (where you made a very serious meta accusation against Esp) and #143 (where you say you "don't see anything wrong with Espeo so far"). In between, his defense was not really adequate considering the gravity of the initial claim, and your response to it was too meh to be a revelation.

Park -n- jab with your net too wide == just what it sounds like. Parking your vote, then lobbying jabs at a variety of people. Townies either get tunnel vision or they don't. I don't know that I've ever seen a town player get just half of it.

I'm glad you know what lurking means.

[Ythill]

Another thing about Luch... actually what first drew my eye to him...

Earlier Oja said something very insightful about the attacks against Rich and Esp: that a glance at the player list suggests they're destined to be mislynch targets if they're town. I'd expect something similar towards Luch. In this game of familliar faces where many of us know the meta of others, I'd expect that the scum would want to determine whether Luch is an early play, a NK, or a ringer because otherwise he's a wildcard. It's possible someone on the scumteam knows his main but, otherwise, it looks very odd to me that he's been ignored by everyone (and therefore ignored by scum) to the extent that he has been.

Anyway... I'd

love

to lynch Luchris but, for now, I might as well put my vote into play.

UNVOTE: Luch
VOTE: Untrod Tripod

That's 2 @ 4.

[vollkan]

Mainly, I agree that he has latched on to an easy target and seems to be attacking him for inconclusive things. However, I can see an honestly distracted townie playing in that manner. Hence me leaving him @ null. If there something specific you wanted to know, please ask a more specific question. I'm curious why you want me to elaborate on him rather than on Luchris and Budja. What is your read on Luchris?

Why UT: because I haven't been able to see the reasons for suspecting him to date. I saw his early vote as mostly a pressure vote (lower standards in RVS and all that) and his subsequent questioning of Espy was basically along the same line as my own.

On Luchris: No points, so null by definition. I also think that your argument about linear assumptions in respect of Luchris (#276) is weak. That sort of branching suspicion "Maybe MBF didn't join these wagons because he is buddies with UT" is useful to a point, but I don't think most players do it all the time and even then only in very clearcut cases of buddying, etc. - for the simple reason that the amount of possibiltiies that it invovles considering are enormous. Call this simplistic, but MBF's post there was genuinely unclear, and so prima facie I can't see anything unreasonable about saying so. I also can't see why you think that there is cognitive dissonance, specifically in relation to Espy's defence which was perfectly valid: Espy admitted that he is playing differently from normal and gave a legitimate reasona as to why.

Simply that I wasnt voting him yet and I was tired of him speaking utter rubbish. He picked up on something that was bullshit, Im okay when people vote or try to pressure me for decent reasons, I like Ojanen, her reasons for voting me are ones that I can see why she would see them as scummy. He has dressed up his votes like he would a cheap whore, give them a nice classy dress but not do anything with the horrible makeup, the scruffy hair or those goddamn awful kankles.

That doesn't really explain it, unless your vote was because you were pissed off at his (admittedly annoying) style.

What is he attacking them for though? He didnt attack me for anything and as far as I can tell he isnt voting Oman for anything.

And again - I completely agree that his absence of reasoning was ridiculously anti-town, but you're an experienced enough player to know that some people do just play that way.

I saw what he said he was doing, its a load of bullshit. You know fine well that it is are you really going to care about a point in a case a good few weeks after it happened?

No, but that's not what's happened here. A large storm has erupted around Espy's mystery cases, so it's plainly going to be impossible for him to rely on effluxion of time as a means of avoiding having to deal with it.

[Ythill]

Why UT

You, sir, have an echo. Short version: he is scummier than Poro and now both are @ 4 votes. If they were equally scummy, I'd still place my vote on UT in this situation.

I also think that your argument about linear assumptions in respect of Luchris (#276) is weak... for the simple reason that the amount of possibiltiies that it invovles considering are enormous.

I hope you don't mind me trimming the fat. The enormity of possibilities is exactly my point. Most people (all people, to some extent?) don't consider all the factors, they naturally jump to conclusions based on the assumptions they've already made. Even detatched, logical players do this when they are honestly hunting. My example may be problematic beacuse I am attempting to show the lack of something throughout Luch's posts by demonstrating the lack of it in one post. The only place I see linear assumptions from Luch is where he pressures Oman for a UT read, but there are scum motivations for that as well, so that one could be a coincidence.

If you're interseted in understanding, read Luch's iso and try to name the assumptions he's making as the game plays out.

Espy's defence... perfectly valid

Your

opinion of Espy's defense isn't relevant. Although it may help you understand my point to read one of your responses to an Espy defense along side the one posted by Luchris. Then ask yourself three questions... Was Luchris' accusation (in his opinion) drastically less weighty than your own (in your opinion)? Was Espy's repsonse to Luchris vastly more convincing than his response to you? And, assuming the answer to both of those is "no," would you now say that you don't suspect Esp at all?

[Ythill]

Ohey, I just reread your post and realized that "Why UT" was a heading, not a question. I guess you don't have an echo.

[mykonian]

votecount

Untrod Tripod (4): Luchris, Seol, mikeburnfire, Ythill
Porochaz (4): Ojanen, Vollkan, Fishythefish, Parama
Espeonage (3): Untrod Tripod, RichardGHP, Oman
RichardGHP(1): Porochaz

not voting (1): Espeonage

With 13 players it is 7 to lynch.

You have 4 days till deadline

[RichardGHP]

@Richard: please could you answer the questions posed in my last post

@RGHP: what do you now think of Espe? Of volkan? Of Prozac? Why didn't you follow up on any of these suspicions?

Scum; town; scum; no reason in particular.
Since he's on my scumlist and is the leading wagon, it makes the most sense to

Unvote; Vote: Prozac

. L-2.

Who's going to be the resident sissy that wants us to utilise all four days?

[Oman]

I do, because I think that we're in a strong position right now where shifting wagons WILL affect a lynch. Meaning people who do or don't have a serious interest in one side or the other.

[Espeonage]

See sig. I'm back now. Expect something in the next couple of days. It is after midnight at the moment.

[Ojanen]

I am very very annoyed by Richard's vote, although the side of me that looks at the dynamics of today and sees likely town still wins.
Catch up in a few hours.

[Fishythefish]

Goddamn it I see what Ive done. Thanks fishy, I put my reasons for disliking esp instead of richard there, I got mixed up, fair enough with your votes.

To clarify - which of the two conflicting quotes on Richard was supposed to be about Esp?

[Ythill]

I am very very annoyed by Richard's vote, although the side of me that looks at the dynamics of today and sees likely town still wins.

Same here. That wagon on Prozac is intriguing. Vollkan is the only one on it who is not on my town list, but I got a pretty strong town read on Poro earlier. It seems I am mistaken about something...

Grumble.

I don't suppose we could get a quick L-3 wagon on Luchris, could we? Please?

UNVOTE: UT
VOTE: Luchris

[RichardGHP]

Unless a wagon is all you want, you'll have to do better than that.

[Ythill]

For now, a wagon

is

all I want. And I already did better. Did you read what I said about him?

I'm so used to playing with idol-worshippers and sheep that this lack of Yth-following is odd to me.

[Oman]

I'd definitly buy a Luchris over prozac

unvote; vote: prozac

[Porochaz]

You don't want to do that. Jeez, Oman I thought you would keep a better watch over the game... the one where I vote richard is about esp, I havent changed my vote to answer your question because Im happy with either.

[Fishythefish]

unvote

Tired, drunk, not ready for Poro to be at L-1 with his claim of misspeaking. Thoughts and vote for Poro/UT tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Actually, you know what?

VOTE: Luchris

[Ojanen]

unvote; vote: Luchris

woo.

[Porochaz]

Luchris, how do you feel about the game thus far? Who do you suspect the most?

[Untrod Tripod]

Sorry about being on Limited Access guys

I'm kind of iffy on the Luchris wagon. Luchris may have an inexplicable hardon for me, but I don't think his reasons are scummy so much as stupid. I think MBF (because he has been pointedly active lurking and joke-claiming SK) and Esp are still more worth lynching. So I'm staying off of this one for now.

I'll respond to a few things:

if I had to pick scum from among them, it would probably be UT, mainly because some of the points against him are decent and because his Esp-hate looks even worse when you notice that he's ignoring similar play from other slots.

My issue with him is how he (I think) is trying to make us think he's more valuable than he actually is by loudly talking about his "secret reads" and how he's "playing better than we think he is". Who else is doing that?

@UT: could you please make explicit which bits of that Espe iso make you suspect him. You seem to disagree at great length with his post which says "RVing bad, analysis good" - he may have gone a bit overboard with that, but I don't see how it's a scumtell. As for holding back his reads, I again don't see why it makes him likely scum. Your case says that Espe is antitown - I don't see anything in it that makes me think he's scum.

My point was that from your post I just didn't believe your scumread on Espe. You seem to find his play wrong or antitown, but I just can't see how what you've said adds up to "Espe is scum".

Do you think my response to your attacks on Espe are "weird" because your attacks are good, or just that defending another player is "weird"? As oj asked, does "weird" in this context mean "scummy"? Are you making an Espe-fishy link? If not, what does it mean?

anti-town = playing against a town win. I felt he was playing more for his own personal survival than for a town win. On day 1 with relatively little to go with, this is worth a vote. I think calling me scummy for calling Esp scummy is illogical. I said "weird" instead of illogical because I didn't want my disagreeing with you on that to degenerate into an ad hominem thing. I thought the scummiest parts of his ISO were where he was insisting that he was playing better than we thought and when he said he had reads but wouldn't reveal them. As I said, I really don't think withholding analysis is pro-town.

I'll be back to regular posting on the 30th.

[Oman]

I'd definitly buy a Luchris over prozac

unvote; vote: prozac

I am the biggest tool. This is meant to be a Luchris vote. Fuck. I don't know what he's on now so I won't swap over until I know. Until then:

unvote

[Fishythefish]

UT 3
Poro 3
Luchris 3
Espe 1

by my (very unofficial) count.

I'm not sure what my access situation is going to be for the next couple of days - I'm pretty sure I'll be on again before deadline (which I think is Saturday), but probably not for very long.

Prozac's claim is (correct me if I'm wrong) that the vote for RGHP was for reasons which weren't in the vote post - and indeed which were largely unstated at the time. The accompanying reasoning is actually why Prozac suspects

Espe

.

That fits, I believe it, and it makes me comfortable with Prozac's RGHP position.

That makes enough difference to me that Prozac isn't someone I want to lynch today. My remaining problem on him is his stance on Esp - I think his points against him are more "antitown" than "scummy".

Time to actually have a look at Luchris.

So, Luchris seems a decent lynch. He hasn't done anything much. Ythill points out some scumminesses - of these, the cognitive dissonance is minor for me (I'll let Luchris respond to it before saying why). The others tie together in the question "is Luchris tunnelled on UT?". It feels like Luchris has zero intention of voting for anyone other than UT today, but Ythill points out things in his play which don't really fit the picture of tunnelled town ("lack of linear assumptions" and "jabbing", which are sensible points).

The second quote in UT's 296 is misattributed - I said that.
@UT: you say "I felt he was playing more for his own personal survival than for a town win. On day 1 with relatively little to go with, this is worth a vote." In what way do you feel Espe was playing for his own personal survival?

I think right now I'm thinking Luchris>UT>Poro>Espe for the people with any chance of getting lynched.

[Untrod Tripod]

The second quote in UT's 296 is misattributed - I said that.

sure did. not sure how I fucked that up. my bad.

@UT: you say "I felt he was playing more for his own personal survival than for a town win. On day 1 with relatively little to go with, this is worth a vote." In what way do you feel Espe was playing for his own personal survival?

My issue with him is how he (I think) is trying to make us think he's more valuable than he actually is by loudly talking about his "secret reads" and how he's "playing better than we think he is".