NY 120: Flash mafia 2. GAME OVER

[Parama]

Town

RichardGHP
Ojanen
mikeburnfire
Luchris

Null

Untrod Tripod
Budja
Espeonage
Oman

Scum

JDodge
Vollkan
Porochaz
Fishythefish

A few things have changed since then but
I could go and whip up a BS case but I'm past the phase where I find those things useful for lynching scum.

[RichardGHP]

Scum; town; scum; no reason in particular.
Since he's on my scumlist and is the leading wagon, it makes the most sense to Unvote; Vote: Prozac. L-2.

The way you are playing has absolutely zero information value. Why do you suspect Prozac?

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p2587124

Everything from the start of the quote tunnel to the predictable claim, inclusive.

[vollkan]

I feel bad you based that iso on a mistake. I said "lack of linear assumptions" not "non-linear assumtions." Big difference.

Then I really can't see what the scumtell here is. I can understand why it would be scummy to have non-linear assumptions (ie. posts that have inconsistent premises). Taking the example you raised:

So that's four wagons of 3, if we pretend Oman knew syntax.

Porochaz, Parama, Tripod, and Espeonage.
I hereby declare these four players off-limits until tomorrow. So sayeth MikeBurnFire. So shall it be.

unvote, vote Oman

I don't get.
At all.
>.>.

He suspected UT. However, I don't think you can turn that into an 'assumption' that UT is scum, let alone to the extent that it should frame how he reads other people's posts - especially where the link drawn (ie. your point that "you seem perplexed by MBF pooh-poohing four wagons including UT's. Shouldn't someone who suspects UT at least entertain the idea that MBF is a buddy") is extremely tenuous. MBF's post was genuinely opaque and I think the natural response (from town or scum) to that opacity simply to ask for explanation, rather than to trawl through the history of a game to draw out patterns.

This is mainly because of the general fact that all of us have limited time that we can expend on this game. But also, the particular point that you expected Luchris to find (ie. the UT link) is only one of a myriad of different ideas that one could similarly draw from MBF's post.

In an ideal world, where we all had infinite time and energy, we probably would go through each possibility like that to build up a complicated matrix of possibilities. But we don't. So I can't see how this can sensibly be used as an argument for Luchris being scum.

I think we should keep the UT wagon alive as a possibility. Poro was town before his claim and I am not okay with lynching him, but I'd love to hear what people think about the inclusion of a watcher in a game that's explicitly focused on the day phase.

It's day-focussed, not mountainous. Since we know there isn't a cop, a watcher is a plausible role to be included as a means of providing some investigative power.

most relevant to my opinion of town-town was the fact that the point the game totally froze upon was the predictable Esp pressure+Rich pressure momentum. Noone had interest to pursue other existing ("justified") avenues.

I don't understand this. How is the stalling a town-tell?

Scum; town; scum; no reason in particular.
Since he's on my scumlist and is the leading wagon, it makes the most sense to Unvote; Vote: Prozac. L-2.

The way you are playing has absolutely zero information value. Why do you suspect Prozac?

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p2587124

Everything from the start of the quote tunnel to the predictable claim, inclusive.

What was scummy about his 'parroting' of me?

[RichardGHP]

I'm not debating that again.

[Ojanen]

At this stage in the game, I'd rather you vote me than nobody. Please put your vote back in play.

I thought I could do that at lot sooner but I got hung up working extra late+commuting basically until the night. Will vote in a sec now. Lack of strong scumreads at this point makes me go all blergh but gotta read a bit plus decide.

most relevant to my opinion of town-town was the fact that the point the game totally froze upon was the predictable Esp pressure+Rich pressure momentum. Noone had interest to pursue other existing ("justified") avenues.

I hope vollkan is paying attention.

The majority of players don't know Rich's alignment, so the totality of actions say nothing about his alignment.

You could be looking at town-town or town-scum in either direction. I can see you counting this as a point in his favor, but not as the basis for a read strong enough to justify overlooking the things that "annoyed" you.

To the sentence I put in cursive: the totality of actions is just the sum of every individual's actions and scum knows Richard's alignment. I don't get your logic.
I don't get what is the difference with you finding the logic about expectedly being a focal point sound and this one unsound by principle - both are based on totality of actions. Your Luchris tell was based on totality of actions too.
If something subtle is missing from the totality of actions that would have clear scum motivation were Rich scum (some steering to other obvious targets instead of thread dying), I'm counting it as a towntell for him. The situation going dead on pressure on those 2 people (plus Esp is a townread based on his play and his pressure was lowering) indicates to me that scum is comfortable with the Rich pressure. Dying thread doesn't make pressure go away, just makes the thread have less material, makes said pressure being having more relative weight, makes people more likely to just default to that direction if deadline approaches.
That being said, I went back to look at when and how the the game slowed down, and I think my memory was having too clearcut a picture on the momentums going on at the time. Most of the Rich momentum actually came afterwards and there were more other things going on at the time than I remembered.

...although the side of me that looks at the dynamics of today and sees likely town still wins.

Implying that the other side of you finds something about his vote suspicious.

I was annoyed for him playing hard to read and wanted to express negativity towards his playstyle.

...he had at least pinpointed something for his Esp vote (even though I didn't agree with it). But his Poro vote was purely because Poro was on the list (and Poro got on the list for something extremely weak).

The situation was Esp 3 Poro 3 iirc and he swang it to 2-4 based on it making sense to vote for the highest wagon on his scum list.

Evidence that you misread/mis-remembered the VC with Rich-is-scum confirmation bias. Look back. It was actually 4-3, Ricahrd made it 5-2, meaning that the reason he gave was honest.

I misremembered that. I remember thinking that he tipped over some momentum, which is still true of that, 4-3 and 5-2 are quite different beasts.
I am not talking both sides of my mouth. Both of these are in the explanation of why I was annoyed and expected other people to find him scummy.

I thought Rich putting him ahead was a classic point on which people would hang Rich on, and I think it's a reasonable town thought process to hang Rich on it once he actually casts that kind of a lynch-directed vote.

Circumlocution where you basically call the vote a scumtell and a fair reason to lynch Rich.

What I find a good reason to lynch Rich does absolutely not equal all of the time what I expect average site-meta exhibiting people to find a good reason to lynch Rich. I already did not find Rich scummy for reasons other people were pursuing him for.
Let's just say that if Richard is scum, I read him as having acted out very intentionally all of the points that have been used against him.

Why did you make the post about being "annoyed" by Rich's vote? What purpose did it serve? To me, it looks like all risk and no reward if you are town, but it makes sense if you are scum.

I made it because I was annoyed and being annoyed means you have a cranky streak wanting to express your annoyance to the person you are annoyed to. I wrote out my thought. I don't consciously analyze the risk/reward ratio for most of the posts I write as town. That's what I think of when I'm scum.

more in a bit

[RichardGHP]

most relevant to my opinion of town-town was the fact that the point the game totally froze upon was the predictable Esp pressure+Rich pressure momentum. Noone had interest to pursue other existing ("justified") avenues.

I hope vollkan is paying attention.

The majority of players don't know Rich's alignment, so the totality of actions say nothing about his alignment.

You could be looking at town-town or town-scum in either direction. I can see you counting this as a point in his favor, but not as the basis for a read strong enough to justify overlooking the things that "annoyed" you.

To the sentence I put in cursive: the totality of actions is just the sum of every individual's actions and scum knows Richard's alignment. I don't get your logic.
I don't get what is the difference with you finding the logic about expectedly being a focal point sound and this one unsound by principle - both are based on totality of actions. Your Luchris tell was based on totality of actions too.
If something subtle is missing from the totality of actions that would have clear scum motivation were Rich scum (some steering to other obvious targets instead of thread dying), I'm counting it as a towntell for him. The situation going dead on pressure on those 2 people (plus Esp is a townread based on his play and his pressure was lowering) indicates to me that scum is comfortable with the Rich pressure. Dying thread doesn't make pressure go away, just makes the thread have less material, makes said pressure being having more relative weight, makes people more likely to just default to that direction if deadline approaches.
That being said, I went back to look at when and how the the game slowed down, and I think my memory was having too clearcut a picture on the momentums going on at the time. Most of the Rich momentum actually came afterwards and there were more other things going on at the time than I remembered.

You have me confused with Ythill.

[Ojanen]

My bad. Too much talk about you.

[Ojanen]

Blah. I'm going to

vote: Untrod Tripod

.
Frankly mostly for: not being on the shortlist of townreads I PoEd for now.
But also
For: being on Esp and not being a townread of mine
For inflating his Esp iso considerably with all the fluff stuff about RVS theory debate - this is also stuff that he didn't seem to find scummy at the time it happened ("So I was reading back through the RVS stuff, thinking maybe Parama was a weak end-of-RVS suspect." just before he voted Esp the first time around.)
And:

anti-town = playing against a town win. I felt he was playing more for his own personal survival than for a town win. On day 1 with relatively little to go with, this is worth a vote. I think calling me scummy for calling Esp scummy is illogical. I said "weird" instead of illogical because I didn't want my disagreeing with you on that to degenerate into an ad hominem thing.

For trying to dodge conflict with Fishy.
Fishy found him scummy for finding Esp scummy. UT found Fishy's stance "...weird..." and elaborates as that meaning illogical and is trying to avoid an "ad hom" fight. There's a strong underlying townread required in not finding the perceived illogicalness regards to his top scum suspect scummy, assuming the fight would be completely disagreeance/ad hom based. That doesn't really add up at all with the tone of ...weird...

Blah mafia.
Parama is total town, btw.

[Ythill]

the particular point that you expected Luchris to find (ie. the UT link) is only one of a myriad of different ideas that one could similarly draw from MBF's post

More importantly, it is the one I would expect someone to draw if that person was town who suspected UT. Or, at least, I'd expect it in place of being completely perplexed. Is there a reason we're discussing this to death? I'm already leaning back from that scumread on Luchris so, unless you think this indicates my alignment, it seems like a waste of our time. But thanks for giving your opinion about the possibility of a watcher.

To the sentence I put in cursive: the totality of actions is just the sum of every individual's actions and scum knows Richard's alignment. I don't get your logic.
I don't get what is the difference with you finding the logic about expectedly being a focal point sound and this one unsound by principle - both are based on totality of actions. Your Luchris tell was based on totality of actions too.

Assuming that what you stated was true, a Rich-scum-Esp-town scenario makes just as much sense, with all of the scum either lurking, distancing, or pushing Esp. The difference is that I thought your initial suggestion was simply that scum were attacking their likely targets; adding the point about the thread stalling doesn't add anything to the logic IMO, and so reads as fluff. And remember that I didn't think the initial argument was definitive anyway.

The point about Luchris was not about the totality of actions but, rather, the lack of ceratin expected actions. I'm still wondering about it, FTR.

I am not talking both sides of my mouth.

What do you want to call it then? You pointed out the suspicious vote and are explaining why it is suspicious while also excusing it as an act committed by a townie. It's very odd and, to be frank, gives me the feeling that you weren't sure which way my attack was going and so are hedging on both sides, which suggests you have something to hide.

I don't consciously analyze the risk/reward ratio for most of the posts I write as town.

Not even a little? On the one hand, you're saying that you were annoyed because you thought people would mislynch him over it, and yet there you were pointing it out to everyone. You claimed you wanted Prozac lynched, and yet there you were complaining about what you believed was a town vote on his wagon. That post just seemed to act plainly against your interests and I'd expect a stronger motivation for making it.

On the other hand, the scum motivation seems straightforward... defend one opponant while pointing out his weaksauce vote on another so that people will remember it later after Prozac flips town.

[Ythill]

unofficial VC

Luchris (1): Fishythefish
Untrod Tripod (3): Luchris, mikeburnfire, Oja
Porochaz (1): Seol
Espeonage (1): Untrod Tripod
RichardGHP (1): Porochaz
Ojanen (1): Ythill
Fishy (1): Parama

not voting (2): Espeonage, Oman, Richard, Vollkan

Add Richard to the list of people I'm yelling at for not voting.

A three-vote deadline lynch would be pitiful. Let's come together a bit please. I will gladly move my vote to keep UT ahead of most competitors, but I'd love to see an Oja wagon up against UT, both because I'd like the information gained and I feel like Oja is a better lynch.

Deadline is in just over 24-hours. I will be around for awhile tonight, again in 10-12 hours, and again just before deadline. I would prefer a lynch by full majority.

[RichardGHP]

Vote: Untrod Tripod

for general IoA and not answering the question posed in my ISO post # thirty-something.

To reiterate that question: Your read on vollkan,

now

. As an addendum to my original question, what do you now think of Espeonage, Prozac and Ythill?

[Ythill]

Thanks for voting. I'm really interested to see what vollkan's going to do.

[mikeburnfire]

I disagree, Ythill! I think that keeping the vote count so low is great, because if some sudden votes are made, the lynch can reflect a lot on those people!

unvote, vote RichardGPH

More Richard votes people! Seriously, he goes after the easy Espeonage wagon, stays on it until he finds a better wagon with Porochaz and votes him with terrible reasoning, putting him very close to a lynch. Notice how he quietly unvotes once he squeezes a claim out, and now he's going after the

new

easy wagon.

Richard is scum, and if you vote him now you will look really good when he turns up dead goon.

[Ythill]

Right, because it's a good thing that scum can accomplish a mislynch by simply not posting.

I'm going to bed.

[mikeburnfire]

^Did Ythill just admit that he knows that I'm town?

[Parama]

I thought you were SK .-.
Did you lie to us?
But yeah Ythill knows who all the townies are.
The Untrod wagon is so awfulterrible even though it has my town reads on it.

[Parama]

*some of my town reads

[mikeburnfire]

I thought you were SK .-.
Did you lie to us?

I used to me. I got better.

[Ojanen]

This morning upon waking up I felt really bad about this game.
I expect it to be because while I couldn't find anything to be enthusiastic about really regards to voting, UT seemed a not too bad lynch and I wrote out some D1 bullshit.
Or maybe because I went back to look at my Rich+Esp town post made about stalling on pressure on them and I thought what I deducted was actually pretty much inaccurate also. I oversimplified the situation. Rich didn't have the votes to back off the pressure, and some people were pursuing other avenues. And I'm having Ythill on my neck to elaborate as much as possible about my Richard read. And (stupid as this might sound) Richard winking at me.

You have me confused with Ythill.

Why did you add the winking smiley?

This can be interpreted as me flailing wildly about to a little pressure, but I don't really care; I wouldn't be too unhappy if I died in this game, has been hard to muster motivation for it.

unvote

more in a sec

[Ojanen]

Assuming that what you stated was true, a Rich-scum-Esp-town scenario makes just as much sense, with all of the scum either lurking, distancing, or pushing Esp. The difference is that I thought your initial suggestion was simply that scum were attacking their likely targets; adding the point about the thread stalling doesn't add anything to the logic IMO, and so reads as fluff. And remember that I didn't think the initial argument was definitive anyway.

I am not going to concede on this point, we disagree.
If it would have frozen accurately to my earlier mental picture of the time with Esp (town) pressure declining and Rich dominating and then freeze, I would absolutely find that telling.
I'm not going to verify this now but I had the impression mostly the same group of people was questioning Esp and Rich which might make my pov easier to understand.
For the record, just Esp pressure plus Rich pressure in itself would be pretty much a null to me so we disagree there too. I would expect them to be attacked regardless of alignment and only the overall momentums being more informative of what's going on D1.

The point about Luchris was not about the totality of actions but, rather, the lack of ceratin expected actions. I'm still wondering about it, FTR.

Blah. This is spinning semantics. Lack of certain expected actions means

they are missing from the totality of actions

. Something expected perceived missing about the totality of actions

is

a feature of the totality of actions. Lack of certain expected actions is even exactly the same as my point was. ugh.

What do you want to call it then? You pointed out the suspicious vote and are explaining why it is suspicious while also excusing it as an act committed by a townie. It's very odd and, to be frank, gives me the feeling that you weren't sure which way my attack was going and so are hedging on both sides, which suggests you have something to hide.

Ok this is just bullshit.
I said:

I am very very annoyed by Richard's vote, although the side of me that looks at the dynamics of today and sees likely town still wins.
Catch up in a few hours.

I said I was annoyed by the vote, not state reasons I was suspicious about it.
AFTER that, you agreed with me and said Prozac wagon is intriguing and you must be wrong about something since you had townread on Prozac and most of his wagon. AFTER which you later voted for me and simultaneously asked me to meticulously explain what I meant.
So my actions, amazingly, do not revolve around Ythill's opinion with my actions solely hedging bets on which side you're gonna take and the timeline simply is false for your assumed motive of mine.

Not even a little? On the one hand, you're saying that you were annoyed because you thought people would mislynch him over it, and yet there you were pointing it out to everyone. You claimed you wanted Prozac lynched, and yet there you were complaining about what you believed was a town vote on his wagon. That post just seemed to act plainly against your interests and I'd expect a stronger motivation for making it.

No, I didn't consciously analyze risk/reward. Annoyance is a strong motivation for speaking your mind. You are exaggerating my sureness on Prozac (go look at my prior-to-this-comment-to-Prozac-in-timeline: pressuring him to answer the questions so I can more confidently really push him or change targets, and jumping on and off the Luchris wagon instead on becoming more certain after his answer did come). And I expected people would find legitimacy in their prior Rich attacks over this vote which means I thought it was obvious.

[Ojanen]

This might be begging for my own lynch but screw that. I literally never get lynched as town so let's hope I have generated some town cred to burn along the way here too. I'm gonna OMGUS Ythill again based on not believing he's genuinely trying to find my alignment based on the way he argues in his last post.

vote: Ythill

I have pretty much ditched my towntell on Richard and am feeling a bit of a tool for all the elaboration for it - if Rich is scum I'm a free mislynch. I was considering voting him now (and I am aware of magnificently feeding Ythill's case with this comment and not doing so) based on his UT vote and based on losing stock on my previous Rich towntell while examining those circumstances again.

Vote: Untrod Tripod

for general IoA and not answering the question posed in my ISO post # thirty-something.
To reiterate that question: Your read on vollkan, now. As an addendum to my original question, what do you now think of Espeonage, Prozac and Ythill?

Richard thinks vollkan is town, thought so while asking the question and also thought so recently, which makes me think UT missing the question should be more null. UT was always on Rich's townlist. Esp and I are on his scumlist and have a vote. How does this make sense with your MO?

Also, anyone lurking today gets scumpoints regardless of whether they genuinely could help it or not.

[Ojanen]

Paging Oman from GD.

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: UT

A decent lynch, and there's no other wagon I'd like to see succeed.

[mykonian]

votecount

Untrod Tripod (3): Luchris, RichardGHP, Fishythefish
RichardGHP (2): Porochaz, mikeburnfire
Porochaz (1): Seol
Espeonage (1): Untrod Tripod
Ojanen (1): Ythill
Fishythefish (1): Parama
Ythill (1): Ojanen

not voting (3): Espeonage, Oman, Vollkan

With 13 players it is 7 to lynch.

You have half a day till deadline

[Espeonage]

A lynch is better than no lynch. VOTE: UT
Sadly I have to encourage everyone else to do the same. Either that or we are in the poops come tomorrow.