Mini 1088: Cookie Thief Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #100 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:30 am

Post by FakeGod »

VoteCount 1.4


drmyshottyizsik (2): andrew94, Elleran
Darox (5): Zed, Llamarble, Kublai Khan, RobCapone, Darox
Elleran (3): drmyshottyizsik, Stigmata, PoisonIvy
Llarmarble (1): lewarcher82
RobCapone (1): Furcolow

Not voting: No one.

With 12 people alive, town needs 7 votes to lynch someone.


Managed to snipe the first post! -mod
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Post Post #101 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:42 am

Post by lewarcher82 »

KUBLAI: if you meant to unvote Darox, you need to make it bold. Currently he is still at L-2.
Used to play a lot, haven't played for like 8 years, would like to play again.
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Post Post #102 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:25 am

Post by Llamarble »

Revealing role information day 1 is usually a bad idea.
On the other hand, 50% is a lot better than our normal 25% chance of hitting scum,
Particularly since a miss today would guarantee a hit tomorrow if what fur says is true.
We can't rule out a scumgambit though since one mislynch for one lynch is decent value for scum as they also get 2 NKs.
Assuming 3 scum to start with the result there is 2scum vs 6town, with the same town:scum ratio as we started with.
And 2 mislynches for a lynch strongly favors scum.
So that puts us into wifomland.

Regardless, if player A guarantees one of B or C is scum, we should lynch one of those 3 since 1/3 > 1/4, the typical odds of hitting scum in a 12 player game.

I do want to here rob/poison's responses to this.
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Post Post #103 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:49 am

Post by Llamarble »

Furcolow wrote:of it being on scum
well, near guarantee
Ah, so you're not 100% guaranteeing.
Let's see how sure you need to be before this is protown.

We require P(the one we lynch out of Fur/poison/rob are scum) > .25 for this to be useful.

If you think the odds are 66% one of the two of them is scum, then we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum lynching either of them assuming you're town. Giving you the typical 1/4 chance of being scum we multiply 1/3 * P(you not scum = 3/4) and get 1/4, which is what we started with.

So if you're not at least 75% (I added a bit to the 66% minimum because it's not normally a good idea to mention role information early and my math assumed your action was a null tell on your alignment) or so sure one of Rob or Ivy is scum, it might be against town interests for you to elaborate.
But now that you already have it's not clear what's the best path.
What a confusing situation you've managed to put us in 2 days into the game...

From your perspective, how strong is the likelihood of one of those two being scum?

And why not wait a while to reveal this information hoping one of those two would be lynched without your revealing it?
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Post Post #104 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:59 am

Post by PoisonIvy »

Lewarcher82. I stated clearly that while Elleran may be a VI, i dont like playing with confusing players.

Andrew94. You look like you're fishing asking lewarcher specifically for his view on me from my "nulltelling situation". Without giving any stance on it yourself! :D What pray tell was my nulltelling situation. And what i deduced, was obvious, Elleran is a VI or scum. Either one im content with ridding. Or was that not clear?

Lewarcher. Where is Llamamarbles contradiction? I believed i have missed it. He speculated on scum chat and while he may not give me the warm fuzzies, im not altogether pushed on his lynch before someone elses who i find is a long term danger to town.
Secondly. I didnt find shotsick's reaction overly shocking. Imo he cleared the pointed out her mistake and called her dumb. OH NOES!!! (sarcasm) i think she took what he said wayyyy out of proportion, very seriously so and am not at all surprised she has amassed some votes for it. Is there scum on her wagon? I dont know. But im inclined to say no for WIFOMy reasons. Im always willing to be proved wrong though.

KK: repost 60. In my opinion, Elleran did not read the process of the votes and his vote was unsubstantial.
Taking the bait, in my country is comparitable with fishing. You throw out the bait and wait for something to bite.
VI - Village Idiot. Someone who cannot communicate effectively. Commonly says the wrong things in game and cannot understand why people may be taken aback at their statements. Alignment is unestablished. The word serial i just used because of her utter reluctance at first to understand why others didnt understand why she had voted shotsick.

Elleran. Post 62.
You guys are accusing me of 'having a contradictory logic' or 'making buddying comments'. I can't disapprove the second comment at this point because unvoting now will look like I'm completing my 'buddying process' or even complying with the pressure of the rest of the players that my vote was too quick and unreasonable. Keeping my vote on him still looks good to me.
Im confused! Where did "i am almost convinced of your innocence"go!?!?

On that note i have no idea of anyones alignment but i find Andrew94 particularily intriguing for now.
"elleran seems to be promoting discussion with his 'random' style." just noted for my own reference. You try to dupe lewarcher into attacking me for my elleran post. Then later advocating elleran.

Darox is not really standing out to me as of yet. I believe its a mutual feeling.

I am however becoming bored of the Elleran situation.
Hey! Thats what i said!!! Lol. love the sig btw lewarcher. But that statement actually serves a purpose.

Furclow you bollicks. Well what Darox claimed was true. Great. Well let me get this out of the closet. We're all neighbours. The Girl's Club. If we are investigated this is what is returned. We all have names. "Pretty Priscella" and i think i refered to me being a girlie at some point. Sorry i would have had more breadcrumbs, but i didnt think it'd be neceassary FIVE PAGES IN.

However my belief, now, is that furclow could be a godfather who returns a result of "Girls Club" when investigated. Because we do not return Club Scouts or Cookie Thieves. I mean the idea he's just very publically outted all of us. Serves what purpose? He gets town cred for outting us and if we hypothetically were you to waste my life and rob's life (reminder i do not know his alignmnet), its a matter of "oops! i thought it was best for town, you guise should know." And of course even the way he's phrased it, forgetting to disclose he too, is a neighbour. Frankly I want an explanation to his actions before anything else.

Unvote
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Post Post #105 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 12:38 pm

Post by Darox »

What a shock, Furcolow is being stupid again.
Unvote
because if you didn't get the point by now you won't get it without explanation.

I really don't feel like lynching somebody because they are a neighbour.
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Post Post #106 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:23 pm

Post by PoisonIvy »

Horribly so.

I like the unvote. Voting yourself is riddiculous. And im not in favour of that.
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Post Post #107 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:54 pm

Post by Stigmata »

Apologies for my absence; I've been busy lately.
Kublai Khan wrote: It was obviously a flippantly sarcastic taunt. It was in quotes. Why did you consider it worthy of a vote?
I found it rather inobvious and confusing, actually. Elleran's original vote appeared to me to be a fairly lame attack on drmyshottyizsik, but he later clarified it to be a vote made from little substance because he had no particular opinion on any of the players. This seemed strange because I would've thought he'd had some opinion on drmyshottyizsik's vote (OMGUSing and tossing andrew94's vote back at him,) regardless of whether he found it scummy. My vote was placed to get Elleran's attention, potentially start an informational bandwagon and because it seemed right in my gut. That said, the wagon on him has been revealing and I don't find his reactions scummy.
unvote

RobCapone wrote:Since rvs seems to be over

unvote
Sigh, this is a waste of a post and a pet peeve of mine. Why aren't you voting either of the people you say you find suspicious later?

...Now why are you voting Darox? I can't follow your thought process.
andrew94 wrote: what role pm impression?
FoS
. Why did you ask this?

I also dislike Darox's posting as a whole.
Darox, what did you expect to gain by self-voting?


Mod: Please prod Zed.


Done. -mod
Last edited by FakeGod on Wed Dec 01, 2010 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #108 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:59 pm

Post by andrew94 »

yes, i got it now poisonivy.
@stigmata, why can i not ask it?
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Post Post #109 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 2:08 pm

Post by Darox »

I was just making fun of the wagon on myself. Also making fun of random votes and the people who wanted me to make one.
Also to see what people would do in reaction.
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Post Post #110 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 3:18 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

darox is a jester, 5 bucks
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Post Post #111 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:41 pm

Post by Zed »

heh.
unvote


Elleran doesn't stick out to me as particularly scummy. Nothing he did bothers me as of right now, I find his play pretty much nulltell as of right now.

The Darox wagon was ridiculous, in my opinion. There was no reason for him to go to to L-2, even if he was on his own wagon... which I still don't see a reason for. I see it's been asked already, so I'll wait for that answer.

Furc, you should not be sharing that kind of information on day one. First, it's stupid play. If we listened to you and lynched RobCapone and Poison Ivy and they were town, I'd want to lynch you. We don't even know if you're interpretting your Role PM correctly, because you said it just gives you an impression. And why couldn't you just hold onto that information and try to prove that they are scum when you can instead of just saying "hey, I think think these guys are scum! :vote:" That's just... it makes no sense.
hi. I am a girl. no more confusion necessary.
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Post Post #112 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:59 pm

Post by Furcolow »

i disagree that it is stupid play. i feel like the mod has given me a 50/50 lynch from my perspective based upon my role pm.

@PoisonIvy, state your win condition
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Post Post #113 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:00 pm

Post by Furcolow »

i would also like rob capone to state his win condition
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Post Post #114 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:04 pm

Post by Furcolow »

FURTHERMORE, when neighborized in Vi's Holy Order mafia, as town, I responded vehemently and ended up getting my neighbor lynched. It is in my town meta to behave this way towards people who are my neighbors as opposed to be mason/scum in which i know their alignment.

This leads people to ask me "how do you KNOW they're scum"
Here is how: When investigated, girl's club members will not be aligned as a cookie thief or a cookie scout
they will be "girls club". I know my alignment, and by my behavior you all should have it indicated that I am pro-town at this point, even if my concept is above a lot of your heads and appears anti-town. If you knew my meta, you would realize I don't put in nearly this much effort when I am scum, and I am a blathering idiot. I don't know why this is, and even if you consider me an asshole as town, I am way worse as scum and this is not my scum meta. I was very sad, when, at first I thought I was scum. THEN I READ MY WIN CONDITION/ROLE/HIDDEN MESSAGE in my personal pm, which i guarantee is different from theirs. Because we show up as "girls club", i am fucking certain one of those two with me (rob, ivy) are scum, hence why I'm voting rob.
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Post Post #115 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:15 pm

Post by Darox »

In the one game I have read that involved you, you were a town aligned cop and you were an idiot. I don't think you're an asshole, I think you're incompetent.

Bringing up town meta evidence does not sway my opinion of you in the slightest.
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Post Post #116 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:23 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

i'm about to eat my cookie
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Post Post #117 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:39 pm

Post by FakeGod »

@Furcolow: you do realize that directly quoting win conditions is against the rules?
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Post Post #118 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:41 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

mod kill him!

No one broke any rules....It's just that Furcolow is asking for something people can't give to him. -mod
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Post Post #119 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:20 pm

Post by Elleran »

Kublai Khan wrote:So let me get your story straight. You random voted drmyshottyizsik and gave a joking reason that made no sense in order to provoke a reaction. drmyshottyizsik reacted. You declared it an overreaction and serious voted. You vow to keep your vote on him until you see a reason to move it. drmyshottyizsik says that the argument moved the game out of rvs. You respond by saying you're convinced of his innocence, yet you didn't unvote him.

Does that about sum it up correctly?
I didn't say I was convinced. I said I was almost convinced.
Otherwise, it's pretty much that. I don't like how you simplified some of my adjectives or turned them black and white, but I guess your version is the basic skeleton.
Furcolow wrote:FURTHERMORE, when neighborized in Vi's Holy Order mafia, as town, I responded vehemently and ended up getting my neighbor lynched. It is in my town meta to behave this way towards people who are my neighbors as opposed to be mason/scum in which i know their alignment.

This leads people to ask me "how do you KNOW they're scum"
Here is how: When investigated, girl's club members will not be aligned as a cookie thief or a cookie scout
they will be "girls club". I know my alignment, and by my behavior you all should have it indicated that I am pro-town at this point, even if my concept is above a lot of your heads and appears anti-town. If you knew my meta, you would realize I don't put in nearly this much effort when I am scum, and I am a blathering idiot. I don't know why this is, and even if you consider me an asshole as town, I am way worse as scum and this is not my scum meta. I was very sad, when, at first I thought I was scum. THEN I READ MY WIN CONDITION/ROLE/HIDDEN MESSAGE in my personal pm, which i guarantee is different from theirs. Because we show up as "girls club", i am fucking certain one of those two with me (rob, ivy) are scum, hence why I'm voting rob.
I don't know about this. I want to stay with Shotty especially with his style recently but I really want to vote Furcolow.

@Fur: Are you sure you're making a wise decision to reveal all this...?
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Post Post #120 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:22 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

I am threatening to eat my cookie! DONT MAKE ME DO IT!
#freeShotty
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Post Post #121 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 6:26 pm

Post by Kublai Khan »

Oops.
unvote Darox

Llamarble wrote:On the other hand, 50% is a lot better than our normal 25% chance of hitting scum,
Particularly since a miss today would guarantee a hit tomorrow if what fur says is true.
That's the WIFOM of the neighbor role. It's possible to have an all-town neighbor group.

@PoisonIvy: What country are you from? And is english a second language for you?
drmyshottyizsik wrote:darox is a jester, 5 bucks
FakeGod said there would be no VI roles. You owe me 5 bucks.
Zed wrote:The Darox wagon was ridiculous, in my opinion. There was no reason for him to go to to L-2,
Would his being at L-3 be ok? His wagon was just to pressure him to post more game relevent stuff. It worked (sorta).
Furcolow wrote:i disagree that it is stupid play. i feel like the mod has given me a 50/50 lynch from my perspective based upon my role pm.
You realize that it's entirely possible to have an all-town neighbor group, right?
Furcolow wrote:I know my alignment, and by my behavior you all should have it indicated that I am pro-town at this point, even if my concept is above a lot of your heads and appears anti-town. If you knew my meta, you would realize I don't put in nearly this much effort when I am scum, and I am a blathering idiot. I don't know why this is, and even if you consider me an asshole as town, I am way worse as scum and this is not my scum meta.
*facepalm*

Because if you were scum, you'd totally be honest with us and play to your scum meta, right? Because you're so totally honest and are a really shitty mafia player.
dymyshottyizsik wrote:i'm about to eat my cookie
What?

@Elleran: Almost convinced. Noted.
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Post Post #122 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:17 pm

Post by Elleran »

Kublai Khan wrote:@Elleran: Almost convinced. Noted.
Let me put it this way: It'd be stupid to assume that Shotty is of any alignment so early in the game. I should have said 'almost convinced that Shotty is not scum' rather than saying 'almost convinced that Shotty is town'. There is a difference... At least to my eyes.
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Post Post #123 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:18 pm

Post by andrew94 »

eat cookie = die i think

so did furcolow claim neighbouriszer with 2 people?

and with 12 people, a 3 ppl mason town group seems imba
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Post Post #124 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:19 pm

Post by Elleran »

And now my opinions are changing seeing some of Shotty's recent posts.
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