Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[MrBuddyLee]

Hi!

[Patrick]

Hell Yeah

chamber (1) -- Yosarian2
CrashTextDummie (1) -- DrippingGoofball
Ectomancer (6) -- stark, MrBuddyLee, Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum, Mert, Fritzler
Ythill (2) -- HackerHuck, chamber
ChannelDelibird (2) -- CrashTextDummie, Flameaxe
inHimshallibe (2) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba
Flameaxe (1) -- inHimshallibe
Yosarian2 (1) -- Ythill
MrBuddyLee (1) -- Ectomancer

Not voting: ChannelDelibird
18 alive, 10 to lynch

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yarr, Channel! Now both my Face-to-Face scumbuddies are here.

Hey, Channel, go vote Ectomancer. Both Glrok and I have determined that he's scum.

[Glork]

So technically, IH did flake first.

[Glork]

CES, who else is scum?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Not sure yet. I had Ythill as a major suspect for a while, but I feel he's more misguided than scummy currently. He's still probably the best bet along with UT/Channel.

[DrippingGoofball]

@Glork & CES

Which one of you STARTED to buddy to the other?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We're not buddying. We're just both awesome.

[DrippingGoofball]

That is NOT an acceptable answer.

VOTE: CES

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm on page 6.

TOWN:
MBL
CES > but I'm voting him as punishment for Magician's Mafia.
InHim

LIKELY TOWN:
Ythill

SCUM?:
Ectomancer
Chamber > for asking CES permission to vote.

[Lord Gurgi]

AWWWWWWW HELLLZ YEAH CEEDEEBEE

[Yosarian2]

Yos:
Could you please summarize your case against chamber in one paragraph?

Well, he hasn't done much this game, and most of what he has done has been pretty scummy. The post where he asked CES if he wanted to "start a wagon against Yos or Ythill", designed in a way to make it sound like it was a joke when it wasn't, seemed scummy. I don't really get his vote against UT, he never explained it; and then his case against Ythill was worse, and he refused to explain it when asked. I just don't see his actions so far this game as being pro-town, or as having any pro-town intent.

[Fritzler]

So...uhhh....guys, I just realized DGB is in the game, and wanted to let everyone know I am up for a wagon on her at any place and any time on principle.

On a different note, CES, didn't I also help determine he is scum? And by determine, I mean vote for him because he is scum.

[Ythill]

@CTD:

You just listed a bunch of things I've done and then said that you don't understand how they're protown. It sounds like a problem with your understanding, not my alignment. If my leads sound a little hollow to you, look at the day and the player list. Were you expecting obvscum in here?

@DGB:

Hi again. Not all that sure who the scum are yet. I've got chamber, Mert, Ecto, and BBM on the list; Huck recently back to null because he was grouping with chamber. My vote's on Yos because I was bored and he was being too nice to me, but meh. Right now I'd be lynching chamber, but I intend to dig through the thread again tonight.

@CDB:

Welcome.

@Fritz:

I'll keep your offer in mind. If she's town, DGB is as asset I will not squander. If she isn't, we'll probably need your help getting her lynched.

[chamber]

This is exactly the response I would expect from Ecto as town. He gets angry. I still think inHim/chamber is the way to go.

First time I ever played with Ecto was in a Newbie. I had him (correctly) pegged as scum right from the start of day one. He got angry then just like he is now and, as a result, managed to convince the rest of the town I was wrong and led them into a scum victory. Not saying it means he's scum in this game because of that specific reason but

I don't share your confidence in it meaning he's protown either.

bolded mine

I think this is obvious of Mert, predicated by his vote of Ectomancer; I find it odd that he states it this way. Just a gut thing, but I needed to be sure and remind myself of this later.

Is there a reason you made this note in thread instead of on your local machine?

[Ythill]

I've done a lot of rereading and I've got some notes, but I'm not going to try and make sense of them when I'm this exhausted. Probably tomorrow.

Since people were concerned about me being on the fence about Ecto, I will say that I have come to a conclusion. He's prob-town.

[DrippingGoofball]

Hey Fritz, do us all a favor, and vote for me all game.

Don't bother voting anyone else.

KISS (the acronym)

[DrippingGoofball]

TOWN:

DGB/IH
CES > but I'm voting him as punishment for Magician's Mafia.
InHim
Yosarian
stark > I <3 #231
chamber > reaction in #226 is good. scummy for asking CES permission to vote. Actually the more I read, the more I love chamber.
CTD > the guy seems legit. I like #393.

SOMEWHAT SKETCHY:

MBL > seems a little sneaky in posts on page 7-8 though. Tunnels. Asks softballs. But LOVING #344. And #374.
Fritz as always.
Lord Gurgi > here because not screaming town.
Glork > admits to playing WoW, and having a GF in same sentence, one of these two declarations must be a lie. Lightweight scumhunting.

REALLY SKETCHY:

Ectomancer > post #207 sounds like a strategic lurking warning. But then I liked #247. But then I liked MBL's case in #256. And yet #298 is full of excuses. Not seeing a whole lot of scumhunting.

SCUM:

Untrod Tripod/CDB > post #170 "say it was all a joke" is scummy. Fritz vote is cheap without a case.
Shanba > #248, Shanba claims "confusion" and proceeds to lampoon as many players as possible,

finding none to be town

. Post #255 is littered with question marks. That's a scumtell to me.
Flameaxe - OBV strategic lurking.
Ythill > post #415 rubs wrong way. When Ythill is town, he SCREAMS town. Sometimes he feels really town. Sometimes, his post feel off, which is out of character. Vote for chamber #280 is terribad. Yosarian vote in #362 is atrocious.

Theorem 1

Glork (4) -- Untrod Tripod, CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Mert >>>

UT, CTD, CES, and Mert are all likely town, even more so if Glork is town.

WILLING TO VOTE:

Ythill, UT/CDB, Ecto. Willing to wait to see more from Shanba and Flameaxe but expect to run out of patience pretty soon.

[DrippingGoofball]

Most sure of this read. Ecto wagon is pretty townie, though.

VOTE: Ythill

[ChannelDelibird]

Read the first five pages. Will try to get through the rest tonight, hopefully. So far Ecto and Mert look like scumz.

[DrippingGoofball]

Speaking of Mert - Mert is on my town list. I forgot to type it in. I thought I did.

[Ythill]

Glork > admits to playing WoW, and having a GF in same sentence, one of these two declarations must be a lie.

When Ythill is town, he SCREAMS town. Sometimes he feels really town. Sometimes, his post feel off, which is out of character.

I've been confirmed town in 2/3 games we've played together. In the other one, you thought I was scum on D1 too. I wasn't. Not sure why you think my votes and #415 were bad.

I still haven't gone over my notes but, at a glance, some of your other reads look terribad.

[Ythill]

Overview

What I did was, I iso'd the mod and divided the game arbitrarily into sections of 1-3 days in length based on lead wagons. I tracked the wagon votes of each player. Then I reread all the isos to look at the behavior in each section of the game. I color coded with higlighters, marking minor tells (lurking, linking without tunnelling, late RVS, etc), major tells (buddying, fishing, pre-emptive excuses, etc) and town tells (...). Then I tabulated, considered my earlier reads, and came up with what I feel are reasonably solid D1 rankings.

Quick theory rant... when I made the sections, I has to divide the UT wagon into three because it was five days long, and then the UT vs Ecto argument was another four days. Plus all the wagons are small. Case in point about vote movement. Seriously, it's no wonder why follow the cop became so popular back in the day if this is how veterans play D1. There should have been a wagon on Yos already, and me, and probably a few others too. And now here we are approaching the deadline and already needing to settle on a lynch. FFS. Pleas remember this next time you're in a game with me. Anyway...

Mert, CES, and Fritz are our worst bandwagoners. Each has at least three wagon votes that were held across sections. CES has four but he's been proactive. The other two are both parking and milking the wagons after they start falling apart. Yos, Gurgi, Huck, and Ecto have avoided the main wagons altogether; not compelling evidence by itself, but something to keep in mind. Behaviorally, Yos and Shanba are the worst offenders, followed closely by Mert and Fritz, and trailed by chamber. CES isn't looking very scummy, but he's on the bad side of null in both categories.

As a side note, it seems I

was

suffering a little from OMGUS because the two players I suspected that were also voting me look somewhat less suspicious at the end of the process.

Conclusions

Glork, Gurgi, and MBL are so obv-town that I should lend them my avatar; I will not abide by a lynch of one of them now, nor may I ever. I have the following players listed as prob-town: DGB, CTD, CDB, Ecto, Stark, and inHim. DGB's slot would probably be back to null, but I'm giving her bonus townie points because of her potential; no worries, I should be able to tell you within a few days if she's actually town or not.

My null list has been narrowed down to BBM and Huck; both have improved their play lately, but neither by much.

Fritz and Mert are currently at the top of my scumlist. Chamber wasn't as bad on reread but I still have him @ prob-scum. CES and Shanba have joined him there. Yos is an odd one in that he shows both town and scum behavior; my guess is he's third party or hunting for a second scum-group; I'm moving him to the prob-scum list as a person of interest.

Confirm vote: Yosarian2

, and wondering why none of the Yos-haters have joined me. I looked for bigger wagons among my scumpicks but there were none except chamber.

Will address some specific behaviors in my next post...

[CrashTextDummie]

Hello, new people! And to think I was just about to open betting on whether IH would get replaced before D1 is over...

DGB:
How much of a coincidence is it that your scumlist is almost identical to mine? And why does part of it disagree with Theorem 1?

Ythill:
I notice that you have all three of "our worst bandwagoners" at or near the top of your scumlist. That strikes me as kind of counter intuitive considering that you are lamenting a lack of bandwagons. And why are you voting Yos when two other people are at the top of your scumlist? I may have some more comments following your next posts. I do hope one of the specific behaviors you are going to adress is UTs.

[CrashTextDummie]

While I'm at it.

Unvote, Vote: Ythill