Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Shanba]

Also, I found with experience that taking off-wagon players into consideration made the scumputer work worse, not better. So I've stopped doing that altogether.

So the fact that without it your VC analysis is just a veiled way of going after bandwagonners doesn't bother you? I'm sympathetic to the notion that excessive bandwagonning can be a scum tell, but this is no way of applying that tell. Do you deny that I would end up high on your list every game simply as a result of my playstyle?

That's correct. If you end up high on that list no matter what, then we have to kill you.

In Whoniverse mafia, we NK'd you, and you were scum. You hadn't had a vote all game. So you're quite likely to remain undetected scum. We can't keep you to end game. You need to die much sooner.

CES is a good player, so we must kill him quickly? -_-

[Patrick]

Votecount

Porochaz (1) -- CrashTextDummie
Yosarian2 (3) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, Ythill, Shanba
ChannelDelibird (1) -- chamber
inHimshallibe (1) -- Lord Gurgi
chamber (1) -- Yosarian2
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- DrippingGoofball

Not voting: Glork, ChannelDelibird, Porochaz, stark, MrBuddyLee, HackerHuck, inHimshallibe
15 alive, 8 to lynch

[DrippingGoofball]

CES is a good player, so we must kill him quickly? -_-

No, he's just a shameless bandwagoner, on whom we can't get an accurate read. And don't let me get started on his endgame in Magician's Mafia.

[Shanba]

CES is a good player, so we must kill him quickly? -_-

No, he's just a shameless bandwagoner, on whom we can't get an accurate read. And don't let me get started on his endgame in Magician's Mafia.

There are other ways of reading players than bandwagon analysis.

[DrippingGoofball]

There are other ways of reading players than bandwagon analysis.

In my experience, it's been the most accurate. There is a chance of friendly fire, but overall, it rocks. Why, did it ensnare a lot of your buddies?

[DrippingGoofball]

Ythill, I miss you.

[Porochaz]

Hi guys. Ive read the thread and everything. Think

vote ythill

, his actions yesterday started well, but as soon as people started agreeing with him, he got weird.

[Ythill]

I'm here. Working on an analysis post.

@Poro:

I attacked Ecto in the early day and, from his responses, correctly read him to be town. It had nothing to do with people agreeing with me. If more people had continued to agree with me, we might still have a doc.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

DrippingGoofball, your early posts today seem to imply that your vote for me was based on VC analysis yet you admit quite readily that me getting lots of points from your scumputer can not be a serious indicator of my alignment and if anything, you are pushing a policy lynch. How do you explain this apparent contradiction?

[Ythill]

Mert

(1) -- inHimshallibe
Glork (2) -- CrashTextDummie,

Mert

MrBuddyLee (2) -- HackerHuck, Glork
chamber (2) -- Lord Gurgi, stark
Lord Gurgi (1) -- Yosarian2
stark (1) --

Ectomancer

CrashTextDummie (6) --

Fritzler

, Shanba, Untrod Tripod, Cogito Ergo Sum, IH, chamber

Ectomancer

(1) --

Ythill

Not voting: MrBuddyLee, Flameaxe

Our first non-glork wagon. It's early and I'd expect no more than two scum on this wagon, possibly only one. I'm also assuming that they wouldn't jump off together. If CTD is scum, a buddy from the wagon might have joined him as it fell apart.

MrBuddyLee (1) -- Glork
chamber (1) -- Yosarian2
CrashTextDummie (3) --

Fritzler

, Untrod Tripod, IH

Ectomancer

(2) --

Ythill

, stark

Ythill

(1) -- HackerHuck
Untrod Tripod (5) -- CrashTextDummie, Flameaxe, chamber,

Mert

, Cogito Ergo Sum
inHimshallibe (2) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba

Mert

(1) -- inHimshallibe

Not voting: MrBuddyLee,

Ectomancer

Considering the above, CES and chamber are not scum together. Either is slightly more likely to be scum with CTD, but only if CDB is town. It's the wrong time of the game for scum to feel comfortable in a not-voting minority, so MBL gets some townie brownies.

chamber (1) -- Yosarian2
CrashTextDummie (1) -- IH

Ectomancer

(3) --

Ythill

, stark, MrBuddyLee

Ythill

(1) -- HackerHuck
Untrod Tripod (7) -- CrashTextDummie, Flameaxe, chamber,

Mert

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Fritzler

, Glork
inHimshallibe (2) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba

Mert

(1) -- inHimshallibe

Fritzler

(1) -- Untrod Tripod

Not voting:

Ectomancer

Not much here yet. Better chance of two scum on this wagon but only one is still a possibility. UT's throw-away vote after clinging to CTD looks bad. Glork looks a little opportunistic. Ecto wagon

could

be all town at this point.

chamber (2) -- Yosarian2,

Ythill

CrashTextDummie (1) -- IH

Ectomancer

(4) -- stark, MrBuddyLee, Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum

Ythill

(2) -- HackerHuck, chamber
Untrod Tripod (4) -- CrashTextDummie, Flameaxe,

Mert

,

Fritzler

inHimshallibe (2) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba

Mert

(1) -- inHimshallibe

Not voting:

Ectomancer

, Untrod Tripod

Glork looks really bad here. CES not so good either. They are not scum together but there's a very good chance that one of them is. I'm not too concerned about chamber's move but it looks worse if UT is scum.

chamber (1) -- Yosarian2

Ectomancer

(6) -- stark, MrBuddyLee, Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

,

Fritzler

Ythill

(4) -- HackerHuck, chamber, DrippingGoofball, CrashTextDummie
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe
inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird
Flameaxe (1) -- inHimshallibe
Yosarian2 (1) -- Ythill
MrBuddyLee (1) --

Ectomancer

Not voting: None

There's been an all-town surge on Ecto but the scum stay off for a couple of days, which means one of stark/MBL/Glork/CES is def-scum. Closer to the end of the wagon is more likely. Also, I'm pretty sure the scum are spread out here: at least one but probably not more than one each on inHim and myself. Remember this VC later, more flips will make it priceless.

chamber (1) -- Yosarian2

Ectomancer

(6) -- stark, MrBuddyLee, Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

,

Fritzler

Ythill

(4) -- HackerHuck, chamber, DrippingGoofball, CrashTextDummie
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe
inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird
Yosarian2 (3) --

Ythill

, inHimshallibe,

Ectomancer

Not voting: None

A little rally on Yos goes nowhere. Either he is scum or they are entrenched elsewhere. BBM and Yos are the only two not on wagons. Not sure how I feel about that because I can think of theories both ways. Opinions?

Ectomancer

(8) -- stark, MrBuddyLee, Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

,

Fritzler

, Yosarian2, DrippingGoofball
Ythill (3) -- HackerHuck, chamber, CrashTextDummie
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe
inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird

Yosarian2

(3) --

Ythill

, inHimshallibe,

Ectomancer

Not voting: None

Half of the playerlist here, 1/3 confirmed town, late day on town. I'm guessing two scum minimum. One of DGB/Yos is def-scum. Probably not both. Note that DGB jumped off of me. If CTD is town, his most likely respose is either to vote behind her or stick with me.

Ectomancer

(5) -- stark, MrBuddyLee, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

, Yosarian2

Ythill

(2) -- HackerHuck, chamber
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe
inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird

Mert

(1) --

Ythill

DrippingGoofball (1) -- CrashTextDummie
MrBuddyLee (4) -- Glork, DrippingGoofball,

Fritzler

,

Ectomancer

Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- inHimshallibe

Not voting: None

I know I skipped a VC here but I went back to double check and CTD jumped onto DGB right away, scumpoints for him. Also raising m eyebrow @ Glork and DGB for jumping off the front-runner pre-claim near deadline, but Fritz did it too and he was town. Certainly poor play, maybe scum play.

Ectomancer

(4) -- stark, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

, Yosarian2

Ythill

(1) -- HackerHuck
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe
inHimshallibe (4) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird, chamber

Mert

(1) --

Ythill

DrippingGoofball (1) -- CrashTextDummie
MrBuddyLee (4) -- Glork, DrippingGoofball,

Fritzler

, inHimshallibe
Yosarian2 (1) --

Ectomancer

Not voting: MrBuddyLee

Post-claim. More brownies for MBL. If he is scum (which is unlikley), neither inHim or DGB is scum with him. Very little chance that inHim and chamber are scum together though it looks pretty likely that at least one is. HH and BBM have had useless votes up for a long time; possible scum motivation.

Ectomancer

(4) -- stark, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Mert

, Yosarian2

Ythill

(2) -- HackerHuck, CrashTextDummie
inHimshallibe (5) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, ChannelDelibird, chamber,

Ythill

MrBuddyLee (4) -- Glork, DrippingGoofball,

Fritzler

, inHimshallibe
Yosarian2 (1) --

Ectomancer

Not voting: MrBuddyLee, Flameaxe

The scum have spread out again. Most likely on Ecto is Yos or maybe CES. Probably not scum together. Either

could

be scum on me but both might be town. CTD is the most likley scum on inHim, and inHim is the most likely scum of the wagonees (which means brownie crumbs for chamber). On MBL, all the non-confirmed look at least a little suspicious but inHim looks worst. This will be another important VC for later.

Votecount

Ectomancer

(2) -- stark,

Mert

inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, Shanba, chamber
MrBuddyLee (2) -- Glork,

Fritzler

Mert

(10) -- HackerHuck,

Ythill

, DrippingGoofball, inHimshallibe,

Ectomancer

, ChannelDelibird, CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Yosarian2, Flameaxe

Not voting: MrBuddyLee

A very safe wagon. I'm guessing 2-3 scum on it, maybe even voting side-by-side.

If inHim is town

then the scum were reluctant to lynch Mert at first because he was good as a mislynch later. In that case, scum is likely between CDB/CTD/CES/Yos/BBM; of them CES and Yos look worst overall.

If inHim is scum

, CTD is a very likely buddy and I'd say one of HH/DGB is as well. The dissenters all look pretty clean but, based on numbers alone, I'd say there's 1-2 scum among them. Stark gets townie brownies.

I'm just going to post this raw. I've got some quick chores to do but I'll be back with conclusions shortly.

[Glork]

I have no real opinion on the mert wagon. It seems kinda boring to be honest. A quick compromise wagon to avoid lynching the claimed power role on a low-activity player? Yeah. I'm not sure how that's telling in any way.

This entire paragraph is kind of bullshit.

I'd be content to lynch Shanba today.

Vote: Shanba

[Yosarian2]

Yos and Ecto get into a nice big argument with a lot of flim-flam - the only real attack being made is that ecto hasn't scumhunted quite enough, but it's interspersed with loads of theory and a few comments about how Ecto is weirding him out. I mean, that's it. And that's weak. And that's odd, too, because I don't think Ecto was special here - what was special was the way Ecto painted a ncie big target on his head by acting really stupidly.

This is just wrong, in so many ways.

The first thing you quote is me mentioning that Ecto was acting in a weird way. Now, that's not a strong attack against someone, and it wasn't meant to be; just a brief observation in a post that was mostly devoted to talking about other things.

The idea that "the only real attack being made is that ecto hasn't scumhunted enough" is just garbage. The attack against Ecto was never just based on the amount of scumhunting he was doing, although of course that was part of it. It was that the scumhunting he DID do was weak, and looked more like a scum pretending to scumhunt then someone actually scumhunting. Look at his attack on Gurgi. He started off with a reasonable day 1-ish attack on him, but he hedged it with "weasel words". As soon as he was challanged on it, he withdrew from saying gurgi was "1 point scummy" to "1/2 point scummy". He never followed up on it, he never really answered and questions about it, and instead, he spent hundreds of words trying to create a mafia theory justification for not scumhunting. His "attack" on mert is even worse; it's not even clear if he was attacking mert or not, and even though I asked him about it half a dozen times and even though MBL attacked him on it, he refused to ever explain.

The only point he started to suddenly become agressive, instead of defensive/overcautious/passive with a series of excuses for why he was so passive, was in response to being attacked.

There were a long list of other problems I had with his play, too, but that was really the core of it.

I don't know how many times I explained this yesterday, Shanba, but it was a hell of a lot of times. I don't believe that you don't understand what I was saying, and I don't believe that you actually think that my attack on him was "flim flam" or "weak" or "based on ecto painting a target on his head". You tried to attack me with this yesterday before deadline, too, when you apparently deliberately misrepresented what I was saying about Ecto. As I said yesterday, your actions here don't make any real sense as town; I don't think town Shanba would be having this much trouble understanding a relatively straightforward case, especially considering how many times and how many different ways I explained it. Scum Shanba would certainly be using this situation to get an advantage, though.

there's not enough (though there is some) asking ecto to reveal his reads, and there's too much point scoring and presenting how Yos feels about things.

I don't even know what you mean here by "point scoring" and "presenting how Yos feels about things." If I think someone is looking scummy, I'll make a case against them and attack them, by explaining why I have a problem with their play. You can call that "point scoring" and "presenting how I feel about things" if you want, that doesn't make the fundamental act of making a case against someone scummy. You're using a lot of manipulative "scare words" here, like "flim flam", "point scoring", "keeping up appearances", ect, that don't seem to actually mean much.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

he withdrew from saying gurgi was "1 point scummy" to "1/2 point scummy"

There was a definite lack of follow-up, but his shorthand already had "half a point" in it.

[inHimshallibe]

Not scum here, Glork.

CES defying DGB's bandwagon analysis feels like insulted scum.

Definite scumpair: If MBL, then Shanba.

[inHimshallibe]

Gurgi's continuing attack strikes me as scummy btw.

[Yosarian2]

he withdrew from saying gurgi was "1 point scummy" to "1/2 point scummy"

There was a definite lack of follow-up, but his shorthand already had "half a point" in it.

Hmm. I guess you're right.

In any case, it just seemed really scummy that he had no other scum reads, that he wasn't voting anyone, and when he did post a scum read, he then spent the next 6 posts trying to explain just how weak a scum read it was and why it was so weak, rather then either pressure Gurgi farther or try to find another scum read.

[Porochaz]

I'm here. Working on an analysis post.

@Poro:

I attacked Ecto in the early day and, from his responses, correctly read him to be town. It had nothing to do with people agreeing with me. If more people had continued to agree with me, we might still have a doc.

I don't think that should be a part of the basis of this though. You switched as soon as people started getting involved. There is more to this but that is the main point. It just seems convenient that you do a 180 as soon as people start to vote.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He switched his vote quite a bit later, Poro.

[Yosarian2]

Considering the above, CES and chamber are not scum together.

By the way, while I don't really believe in the vote analysis stuff at all, i agree with this statement for unrelated reasons. If chamber is scum, CES is town.

[Ythill]

CTD

CDB

is the most likley scum on inHim...

Confused by too many C-- names, sorry.

It just seems convenient that you do a 180 as soon as people start to vote.

"180" is a misrep. I saw some things that made me question my read and then performed further isos before changing my mind. Besides, what motivation would scum have to leave a popular wagon on town? Enough to make waves like I did? I was okay with this accusation before Ecto's alignment was revealed, becasue I agree that my timing might

look

bad if he were scum, but he wasn't.

There is nothing wrong with me changing my mind based on the evidence.

Why would you think that?

That's a good question... for the scumteam.

Based

solely on my VC analysis

, the most likley scumteam is inHim + CDB + Glork + Yos/DGB. Though it is less likely, CES could be swapped out for Glork, in which case Yos is off the team, leaving DGB as the 4th buddy.

The VCA sullied my opinions of those listed above, plus CTD, Shanba, HH, and BBM to a lesser extent. However, I disagree with DGB in that I think BBM's behavior at the end of D1 was extremely protown. The VCA deepened by town reads on MBL and stark, as well as lessening my probscum read on chamber.

A lot of these reads go against my D1 behavioral tells. Obv, more weight here than there but still, I intend to do some more digging and double-checking before we lynch. At some point in the next couple of days I'll compare the new info with the old and get y'all an up-to-date list of reads.

UNVOTE: Yos
VOTE: inHimishallbe

[Porochaz]

Hrm... it's hard to tell whether Ecto's reaction is faked or not. Normally, a reaction to scum-or-stupid solidifies or disproves my read. This game is not going to be easy.

Meh. I've been parked for too long anyway.

UNVOTE: Ectomancer
VOTE: Mert

The way you unvoted though, its weak. I understand the initial evidence, I would have voted Ecto around the same time you did, that early post of his reeked. The difference is that one line. I wouldn't have moved my vote unless I had significant reason, I wouldn't have removed it because "I've been parked for too long anyway" and from my thought process of your questioning you didn't really disprove or solidify anything in your opinion, so you didnt have a point to removing your vote.

[Ythill]

So I am scum for playing the game differently than you? Awesome.

[Yosarian2]

So I am scum for playing the game differently than you?

The irony is painful.

[Ythill]

Or... would be, if you weren't comparing D1 play with D2 play.

[Lord Gurgi]

InHim: So I haven't said anything since you first said I was sticking to you (thanks for reporting the facts by the way, I was a little unclear on my vote), and then a few pages later it becomes scummy. Care to elaborate on what changed since then? Also why is all you do now criticise me?

I'll get on the chamber wagon if it comes to it. My problem with the Ythill vote analysis is that he said that if inHim is town -> CTD scum, if inHim is scum -> CTD scum. Makes me doubt your stuff since you then picked CES. Watch the Ythill wagon repeat the Ecto wagon in sterling TECHNICOLOR.

I don't understand the shotgun scum hunting here. Why does everyone seem to suspect more than half the town?