Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB's analysis is tl;dr for me.

Cliff Notes:

You're scum and CES is your buddy.

[Patrick]

Votecount

Porochaz (1) -- CrashTextDummie
Yosarian2 (2) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, Shanba
inHimshallibe (4) -- Lord Gurgi, Ythill, chamber, ChannelDelibird
chamber (1) -- Yosarian2
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- DrippingGoofball
Ythill (1) -- Porochaz
Shanba (1) -- Glork
stark (1) -- HackerHuck

Not voting: stark, MrBuddyLee, inHimshallibe
15 alive, 8 to lynch

[DrippingGoofball]

Not a single CDB vote???

[chamber]

I'd love to be voting for CDB but I failed to get it started, why don't you try.

[Shanba]

This is just wrong, in so many ways.

The first thing you quote is me mentioning that Ecto was acting in a weird way. Now, that's not a strong attack against someone, and it wasn't meant to be; just a brief observation in a post that was mostly devoted to talking about other things.

The idea that "the only real attack being made is that ecto hasn't scumhunted enough" is just garbage. The attack against Ecto was never just based on the amount of scumhunting he was doing, although of course that was part of it. It was that the scumhunting he DID do was weak, and looked more like a scum pretending to scumhunt then someone actually scumhunting. Look at his attack on Gurgi. He started off with a reasonable day 1-ish attack on him, but he hedged it with "weasel words". As soon as he was challanged on it, he withdrew from saying gurgi was "1 point scummy" to "1/2 point scummy". He never followed up on it, he never really answered and questions about it, and instead, he spent hundreds of words trying to create a mafia theory justification for not scumhunting. His "attack" on mert is even worse; it's not even clear if he was attacking mert or not, and even though I asked him about it half a dozen times and even though MBL attacked him on it, he refused to ever explain.

The only point he started to suddenly become agressive, instead of defensive/overcautious/passive with a series of excuses for why he was so passive, was in response to being attacked.

There were a long list of other problems I had with his play, too, but that was really the core of it.

I don't know how many times I explained this yesterday, Shanba, but it was a hell of a lot of times. I don't believe that you don't understand what I was saying, and I don't believe that you actually think that my attack on him was "flim flam" or "weak" or "based on ecto painting a target on his head". You tried to attack me with this yesterday before deadline, too, when you apparently deliberately misrepresented what I was saying about Ecto. As I said yesterday, your actions here don't make any real sense as town; I don't think town Shanba would be having this much trouble understanding a relatively straightforward case, especially considering how many times and how many different ways I explained it. Scum Shanba would certainly be using this situation to get an advantage, though.

First off: yay for little jabs at me. I'd prefer you actually state that you think I am acting scummy and come out with a case to little insinuations here and there. That looks like more smoke and mirrors and rhetoric - which is what I think happened with Ectomancer, by the by. That whole wagon just felt so bad the whole way through. Like, there was nothign that struck me as particularly exceptional in his play - low on scumhunting, but not exceptionally so. Probably in the bottom quarter, but I wouldn't have stated any lower than that. Maybe being a bit limp in his reads. But in terms of an overall pattern of play, he wasn't really pinging on my radar. In fact, the only thing that really stood out about his play was the superbly bizarre and aggressive theorising that started coming from him - but I honestly don't see how that shit is scummy. It's a total honey trap - it's so easy to get caught up on the guy making a big loud scene and ignoring all the other players so that that guy gets tons of analysis and dissecting of his posts etc. But really truly honestly? I cannot understand the huge fuss.

And for scum, that shit is hard to deal with. Like, do you wagon? That's the kind of wagon I'd be super wary of as scum. I mean, analysis later in the game is probably going to wreck you. But still, it's so god damn appealing, such an easy place to park your vote, and if many townies are also expressing the same opinions then it's a nice place to hide. Scum would dither, they'd push it but maybe not hard, maybe not sure, maybe lay some groundwork first. I'd expect from scum roughly what I saw from yos. A lot of sound and fury before jumping on the wagon.

On specifics: yeah you note that the scumhunting isn't good enough, but not until later in your argument with ecto:

That's all reasonable day 1 scumhunting. (Well, the "chamber" thing is a little iffy). The problem is, there just wasn't much of it, and I don't get what the point of the rest of your posts are; you seem to have a poor signal/noise ratio. And the small amount of scumhunting you did, you didn't really follow up on it; if the only thing you have at the moment is a slight read on gurgi, I don't get why you're not voting him, why you're not questioning him, ect.

That's irrelevent, though. I have not attacked you for explaining your scum hunting methods; I've attacked you for not scumhunting. If you had a dozen posts talking about esoteric mafia theory and a dozen posts trying to figure out who the scum were, I wouldn't mind at all. If you have a dozen posts talking about mafia theory and two posts scumhunting, neither of which you ever really followed up on, that's a problem.

And so I guess the point I'm making is, that it's his lack of scumhunting that drew you in and got your attention.

By the by, I totally understand your attack on him. I just think it's bullshit. I also think that you managed to make it seem like you had a larger case against him than you actually did in all the words that you exchanged. And I also think that scum would have wanted in, and they'd probably have approached it like you did. So yeah, I think you're scum.


is cdb just a lurkerwagon? lame.


As an aside, I have two exams left on the 16th and 17th - after that I'm totally free again. Well, apart from familial holiday commitments - I think I might be on vacation the first week of january or something like that. But I might have internet there anyway. If I do, it'll be pretty much all I have, so I'll be superactive, if not, then meh.

[Shanba]

whoever asked: inhim is still scummy. I haven't gone over him in depth. I'm using the yos thing as a means to stay somewhat active whilst in exam period, so my elsewhere reads are fairly limited (I have some townreads if you care).

[Shanba]

I have no real opinion on the mert wagon. It seems kinda boring to be honest. A quick compromise wagon to avoid lynching the claimed power role on a low-activity player? Yeah. I'm not sure how that's telling in any way.

This entire paragraph is kind of bullshit.

I'd be content to lynch Shanba today.

Vote: Shanba

it's not bullshit. Like, here's the thing - town's gonna jump on to get a lynch. scum's gonna jump on to get a lynch. woo.

[Glork]

I have no real opinion on the mert wagon. It seems kinda boring to be honest. A quick compromise wagon to avoid lynching the claimed power role on a low-activity player? Yeah. I'm not sure how that's telling in any way.

This entire paragraph is kind of bullshit.

I'd be content to lynch Shanba today.

Vote: Shanba

it's not bullshit. Like, here's the thing - town's gonna jump on to get a lynch. scum's gonna jump on to get a lynch. woo.

It's bullshit because there's no way you could get ZERO inklings from that wagon at all. If the scums wanted to wagon someone to lynch, then there had to be SOME turning point that made them jump to Mert. If they didn't, then you should be doing what HackerHuck is doing, and closely examining the people who were off-wagon when the lynch went down. But instead of bothering to think about these possibilities, you make a blanket non-statement like "I have no real opinion" of it? Nope. That's bullshit.

But fine, some questions for you.

1) Do you think that anybody who put Mert ahead of the other lynch candidates is likely to be scum (inHim/CDB if memory serves me correctly)?
2) Do you think that anybody who piled onto the wagon late to ensure that he'd be the only "viable lynch candidate" is likely to be scum (CTD/CES/Yos2)?
3) Do you think that anybody who was around posting at deadline (MBL, Flameaxe, Lord Gurgi) is likely to be scum?
4) What about the people who got the ball rolling (HackerHuck, DGB, Ythill)?


.....or do you really think that each of these behaviors are equally likely to come from scum and town?

[Glork]

is cdb just a lurkerwagon? lame.

Also, please explain this post, considering there are currently zero votes on CDB? Why are you attacking a bandwagon that doesn't actually exist?



DGB, you may be onto something here. I'm still not convinced on CES, but I'm liking both Shanba and CDB as lynchfodder today.

[chamber]

Glork, I know you recently seem to enjoy pretending that I don't exist but:

@Glork

What do you think of CTD's most recent post?

[Glork]

Oh, right. It's reasonable. I don't really have any reason to suspect CTD right now. I'm looking forward to his explanations of his reads, although they do seem a little scattershot to me right now.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm still not convinced on CES.

What would it take?

He's scum.

Look at his reaction to the scumputer results.

[chamber]

@Shanba

Can you give the town reads you said you have?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Anyone who claims I got prodded, is lying.

A quick iso of inHim leaves me apathetic regarding the inHimwagon. I need to make some time for this game and do a re-read.

[Yosarian2]

First off: yay for little jabs at me. I'd prefer you actually state that you think I am acting scummy and come out with a case to little insinuations here and there.

Little insinuations? I thought I was pretty pretty darn clear that I think you're probably scum here.

That looks like more smoke and mirrors and rhetoric - which is what I think happened with Ectomancer, by the by.

This is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. I had a number of solid, rational reasons for suspecting Ectomancer, but rather then actually talk about that, you're going to just pretend I didn't and dismiss the whole thing as "smoke and mirrors" because it sounds scarier that way. You did the same thing yesterday, as well.

That whole wagon just felt so bad the whole way through. Like, there was nothign that struck me as particularly exceptional in his play - low on scumhunting, but not exceptionally so. Probably in the bottom quarter, but I wouldn't have stated any lower than that. Maybe being a bit limp in his reads. But in terms of an overall pattern of play, he wasn't really pinging on my radar.

So, you agree that he wasn't doing much scumhunting, and you agree that he was "limp in his reads". (I'm amazed you can call his early game behavior "a bit limp in his reads"; he never made a read he didn't immediately retreat from.) If both of those things are true, then that automatically makes him a reasonable day 1 wagon, pretty much by definition. Nothing more then that is needed. Of course, there was more then that.

In fact, the only thing that really stood out about his play was the superbly bizarre and aggressive theorising that started coming from him - but I honestly don't see how that shit is scummy.

I never said that his theorising is scummy, in and of itself.

And for scum, that shit is hard to deal with. Like, do you wagon? That's the kind of wagon I'd be super wary of as scum. I mean, analysis later in the game is probably going to wreck you. But still, it's so god damn appealing, such an easy place to park your vote, and if many townies are also expressing the same opinions then it's a nice place to hide. Scum would dither, they'd push it but maybe not hard, maybe not sure, maybe lay some groundwork first. I'd expect from scum roughly what I saw from yos. A lot of sound and fury before jumping on the wagon.

No, that's terrible. If you're scum and you want to get on a bad wagon, you generally just do it, in a relitivly quiet way, drawing as little attention to what you're doing as possible.

This is a pretty good example of how literally any pattern of voting or not voting for someone can be described as a scum tell. Of course, in reality, there's absolutly nothing wrong with picking a fight with someone, sparring with them for a while, and then voting them if they react in a scummy way; that's pretty clearly a pro-town way to behave.

On specifics: yeah you note that the scumhunting isn't good enough, but not until later in your argument with ecto:

Not until later? In the very first post I said anything about Ecto, this is what I said.

Anyway, I'd like to hear what his reads are; he made some vague comments earlier, but I'd like to see a little more specificity.

It was pretty clear right from the beginning that the weak and vauge nature of his scumhunting had caught my attention.

It's also worth mentioning that when I first started attacking him, for these exact reasons, your response was:

Quit parroting me Yos o_o

So claiming now that you thought my initial attack was bullshit is pretty far fetched, to say the least.

By the by, I totally understand your attack on him. I just think it's bullshit.

Well, then, you're wrong.

Also, if you understood my attack on him, then there's absolutly no excuse for your post #13 at all, when you said:

He says his scumhunting is reasonable for day 1, and then he says that he hasn't done enough scumhunting - but he's hardly alone there, is he?

That's completle bullshit, and you KNOW that.

And I also think that scum would have wanted in, and they'd probably have approached it like you did.

Why would scum "have wanted in"? Ecto was doing a damn find job of getting himself lynched, he certainly didn't need any help in that department. In fact, it should be obvious from my posts that I was trying to give him a chance to NOT get himself lynched.

[Porochaz]

As I have exams this week (friday) Im vla until the day after. I do plan on making a post today however.

[Ythill]

I finally finished the comparison of my reads, also did a top-down analysis of individual voting patterns and figured it in. I'm not going to try to explain the method I used in detail but it was basically a chart of my various reads which lead me to a scale of averages. The raw numbers suggested DGB as borderline scum and inHim as borderline null. I moved DGB down to null because of a meta-read that is making me lean townish on her. I moved inHim up to scum because of the wagon dynamics at the end of D1, which were overlooked in my comparison.

Here's my new rankings...

Scum

Yos, CES
Glork, CDB
inHim

Null

DGB
Shanba, BBM, chamber

Town

CTD, Gurgi, Huck, Stark, MBL

Though I have MBL on my town list, I found something that I thought worth mentioning. On D1, he only voted once. He placed the 3rd vote on Ecto and kept it there as the wagon built and crumbled. Then he removed his vote and kept it out of play.

Very

strange. I'd love an explanation.

VOTE: CES seems appropriate.

[chamber]

This town fails at wagoning so I've put together a list in the form of [person(number of people that find them suspicious since the start of the day): List of the people]

InHim(5):
Lord Gurgi
chamber
Ythill
CDB
Shanba

YOS(4.5):
CES
Ythill
Glork?
Shanba
chamber

CDB(4):
chamber
Lord Gurgi
DGB
CTD
Ythill

shanba(4):
Glork
chamber
HackerHuck
Yos

Ces(3):
InHim
DGB
Ythill

Ythill(2.5):
Prozac
chamber
Gurgi?

Glork(2.5):
DGB
CTD?
Ythill

Porochaz(1.5):
CTD
DGB?

Gurgi(1):
InHim

chamber(1):
Yos

Stark(1):
HackerHuck

DGB(1):
Lord Gurgi




I only scanned the thread, so its not surprising that my top 4 mafia suspects are also the top 4 on this list, its likely biased in my reads favour by me having perfect knowledge of who I suspect. If their are any oversights please point them out.

Things to note:
Inhim, the person with the most suspicions, nearly had all of them voting for him and still nothing happened.
MBL isn't on the list at all.
People need to be more liberal with their voting if they want to avoid yesterdays situation.

[chamber]

I can't count. cdb should be 5 -.-

[ChannelDelibird]

Limited access until Tuesday.

[Patrick]

Ether replaces stark.

[Ether]

Hi. Who's scum?

[chamber]

mafia = cdb, yos, inhim, shanba
sk = Ythill

[Ether]

I think Patrick's more likely to use a vig than a serial killer, but I'd prefer not to get into that at this time.

I'm about to eat--I will try to do basic homework (or possibly make other people do basic homework) on those people when I get back.

[Ether]

Ether returns with a whir and a flourish.

All right, Yosarian. How did he catch you?

I'm intrigued by Glork's Shanbavote even though I don't want to sheep on him on principle because he's a bum.