Mini 1088: Cookie Thief Mafia (Game Over)

[RobCapone]

Lewarcher has grounds to accuse shotty of not reading lol

Tbh I have no objection to a name clame

[drmyshottyizsik]

I've read the whole game, just fyi

[RobCapone]

Lewarcher already suggested the name claim idea is what I was referring to

[drmyshottyizsik]

I know, but I think it needs to happen

[Darox]

so because girls club can investigate and find role names, we're just going to assume that no other investigative role exists?

Nope. We're going on the basis that the entire girls club claimed they show up as "Girls Club" for alignment rather than scouts or cookie thieves.

[Llamarble]

I didn't want to clarify the setup for the scum,
but since we have something like a roleblocker and possibly a multilife townie,
it is unlikely that we have a doctor (there are already enough NK preventing roles).
That means a mass roleclaim will just help the scum kill off our best PRs one by one.

@Furcolow: where are you saying I misrepresented your statement?
Do you mean that refusal to lie thing?
If I ask you point blank at the beginning of the game "are you scum this game, yes or no?"
and everyone agrees to lynch you if you don't answer,
how would you respond as scum and how as town?
How can you ever say "I think X is scum" without lying, if you're scum?
My point is that saying you never lie while playing scum is utterly absurd,
and I don't believe anyone could actually think that.

[don_johnson]

so because girls club can investigate and find role names, we're just going to assume that no other investigative role exists?

Nope. We're going on the basis that the entire girls club claimed they show up as "Girls Club" for alignment rather than scouts or cookie thieves.

ok. please direct me to where this was clarified.

[Llamarble]

Elleran said:
"If Furcolow's evidence that one of you is scum is true, then I see you and Furcolow as a 50-50 scum-lynch."
What evidence? Perhaps Furc's so sure there's a scumGC because he is one.
I don't see anthing else very convincing.
The only evidence we have is that they are neighbors with a power so there's a decent chance one is scum.
But having all of them investigation immune weakens a cop and makes them unconfirmable, significantly reducing the strength of tripletown GCs.
A GC flipping town, by Bayes' rule, also makes it less likely one of them is scum.
I've said several times now that I believe being a GC is approximately a null tell.
If it were not, the GCs would gain a benefit by revealing and reduce the post analysis involved in the game.
Most setups are designed to prevent early claiming from helping the town, because it makes the game less fun.
Fakeclaim PMs often make it useless for scumhunting and early claiming helps scum find PRs.
That's also the reasons I think an early massclaim would be unwise.
Elleran's continued reliance on "evidence" which has several times been pointed out as null
does not make sense for a player with a town perspective.

Elleran's reliance on "evidence" that there is no reason to believe in looks like a choice to lynch based on convenience rather than on actual scumreading. Particularly since he said earlier in the game that he prefers post analysis.
Rob's 3 points from 785 are very strong.
To rehash them, Elleran wants to eliminate reasonable players (a probable goal of the Kublai Khan NK agrees with Elleran's goal for today).
His defense of his defense of Darox is WIFOM. Scum use all sorts of methods to protect their buddies.
Saying they will avoid one makes that one more appealing to them.
Scum often accept roleclaims without argument because they know they are true
or they know they are false but want everyone to believe their lying scumbuddy.
In addition to Rob's points,
Elleran was an Ivy lynchdriver.
He is now a Rob lynchdriver.
He has waffled on Furcolow.
He thinks Darox is town for boldness of speech despite a lack of accompanying bold scumhunting moves.
Lewarcher's 663 also points out a collection of actions that seem more likely if Elleran is scum.

Going through his ISO to see if there is anything else glaring:

The early "I'm almost convinced of Shotty's innocence" but "My Shotty vote remains because I have a reason to keep it there."
Simply contradict each other. It's a bit more likely for scum to make mistakes of this kind.
Minor scumslip

"@Darox: I'm curious. You haven't voted (except yourself, which I take it that it wasn't serious) throughout the whole game so far. What do you consider a vote to be and what would you use it for? You seem to have suspects in mind but you seem reluctant to actually place a vote. Is there a reason for that as well?"

He never followed up on this. It smells like "Look! I'm interacting with this player and thinking about his alignment!"
But if he actually was thinking about it, he would have said something about it later. Therefore this looks very faked.
Strong scumslip.

"Do you have a power that can allow you to be informed when you are spied upon? Do you have any clue about what form of spying it was?"

He said this to Shotty after Shotty announced he had been spied on.
In a game with several roles outed he may have hoped to get another premature claim out of Shotty.
He also is interested in how the spying works, which sounds like scum trying to avoid detection by a town PR.
Rolefishing scumslip

He accuses Furcolow of taking action that makes no sense (not voting rob),
but then unvotes him and forgets about it later, saying "Furcolow matters not."
This does not sound like a town thought process.
It could be distancing for awhile then moving into mislynch mode,
or it could have been him manipulating Furcolow to vote Rob,
making the GCs continue to get lynched if all of them are town.

UNVOTE; VOTE ELLERAN THIS IS L-1 DON'T QUICKHAMMER

I'm ready for an Elleran claim and lynch,
but we have a week left to talk about the GC night action and whether we believe what Elleran claims.

[drmyshottyizsik]

unvote
vote elleran

[RobCapone]

Silly shotty you are already voting him

[drmyshottyizsik]

tehehe way to ruin my gambit

[Darox]

@Anyone voting for anyone that isn't Shottymydrcan'tspell
Why do you disagree with forcing shotty to take a hard stand before lynching your person of choice?

[Elleran]

No matter how many times I say my motives are town based, you guys

choose

not to see it that way.

No matter how I react to a question or how I answer it, I look scummy in your eyes because you guys choose to see it that way.

I'm tired of this.

Someone please unvote before I claim.

[drmyshottyizsik]

unvote
now claim

[FakeGod]

Vote Count 2.13

"New Year very soon." -mod

drmyshottyizsik (1): Darox
Darox (1): andrew94,
Elleran (4): lewarcher82, don_johnson, RobCapone, Llamarble
RobCapone (2): Elleran, Furcolow

Not Voting: Zed, drmyshottyizsik

With 10 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch someone.

The new deadline is Jan. 7th, 2011!

[Zed]

@Zed: Who do you think we should lynch today and why?

Elleran looks pretty good right now. I found Llamarble's case pretty convincing, and I find Elleran a little too trusting. I don't think a town member should ever trust a roleclaim as easily as he does. He also asked for an unvote before he claims, which I don't understand. Why can't you just claim? This isn't lylo, anyone who would have hammered after a claim can expect to be quicklynched the next day.

But I guess it depends on what his role is, maybe claiming adds a vote or something weird like that.

[Elleran]

I'm Extraordinary Eli. I'm a Town Jack of All Trades.

[drmyshottyizsik]

vote elleran

fake

[RobCapone]

More believable than suicidal townie

unvote, vote: shotty

The fact you won't even consider it is scummy

[Elleran]

vote elleran

fake

Unvote before I get quick lynched.

I can provide evidence, if you wish.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I did consider it, but I didn't belive it.
Right now we are close to DL right? and we've come to two dead end wagons with semi-beliable claims. So we should eithe lynch elleran or pressure Darox, because I still think his lynch is our best bet.

unvote
vote darox

[Elleran]

Stop Shotty. Darox is Town.

[drmyshottyizsik]

P-Edit, actually I believe Elleran. so far with what we've seen, a JOAT would make sense.
Elleran please provide evidence

P-Edit again

Why is darox town?
is that your evidence?

[RobCapone]

Itt shotty backtracks

[drmyshottyizsik]

Yes I did back track, because I actually stopped and thought