Mini 1088: Cookie Thief Mafia (Game Over)

[Llamarble]

10) This has already been covered. I intentionally did not express my knowledge on Darox to keep my identity hidden. Seeing that Darox had been acting very unproductive, I knew that trying to defend him would be excruciatingly difficult for me and knew that it would probably have to resort to me claiming. Apparently, the only alternative to this for you is that I'm a scum using minimal reasoning to protect a scumbuddy.

There's no reason for a cop to undermine the innocence of a confirmed townie. I think the most likely actual reason you did this was a combination of forgetting to pretend you had a confirmed innocent on him and wanting to avoid attention. By the way, you've just contradicted yourself again; in your post 943 you say specifically that the "trending meh" statement was because of frustration and not "to avoid attention" (or equivalently keep identity hidden). Being unable to keep your story straight makes me feel like it's more likely you actually just weren't keeping your copread in mind, which is more likely to happen if you don't actually have a copread, which would imply you're scum.

Apparently, you seem to believe any argument not based on semantic is minimal and not optimal. Like I said, broaden your thoughts for once.

What's a semantic argument? I just checked the definition, and I don't see how it's related to my logic.

[Llamarble]

Yuck, I was having wierd issues posting that as one thing (I guess it wouldn't fit on the page or something?) and broke it in two, but now it's on two pages. Oh well.

[andrew94]

elleran.

you trusted me more than your confirmed innocent darox.
do you think you are sane? do you think you got redirected/ darox is a godfather etc.
do you trust your results?
do your results match up with your original view of darox (if u havent checked him)


why did you say : i dont trust andrew anymore because he seems to be following everyone

[lewarcher82]

Between posts 663 and 706 I built a case on Ellearn. This case generated very little reaction by Llamarble, who limited himself to discussing Darox position with Elleran after Elleran insisted defending him.

Even though Llamarble was attacking Darox, he kept his vote on the easiest target, Shotty.

After Elleran's claim, Llamarble suddenly presents a case on Elleran that is pretty much identical to the one I had proposed before the claim.

I apologise, guys, but I smell some scum there.

Now, it is almost evident to me that at least one of the players who were voting shotty is scum. Combining the data from the reports, we can proceed and identify several possible options:

Data (actually, just very good assumptions):
∃(Godfather) --> ∃!(Godfather)
∃(Godfather) <--> Godfather(Rob) ∨ Godfather(Furco) ∨ Godfather(Andrew)
Town(Elleran) --> Town (Darox)

Options:
Elleran & Darox are scum; Rob & Llama are town
Rob & Llama are scum; Elleran and Darox are town
Elleran is scum; Rob, Darox and Llama are town
Rob is scum; Elleran, Darox and Llama are town
Llama is scum; Rob, Darox and Elleran are town

We need to find the optimal strategy for town.

Since I find it unlikely (BUT POSSIBLE: 5th option) that Rob, Elleran and Darox are scumbuddies, we will have both Elleran and the GCs investigate Darox's name. Make sure that it is Rob who gets the report. Tomorrow, we will check the results and ask Darox to confirm his name. We will then build a matrix and see what the results can mean. Elleran will report first, so that we are sure that a potential GC scumbuddy won't have any chance to give him the name (Assuming that people get the report at the END of the night, as suggested by the fact that furco ignored Harold's name at daystart).

And today we lynch Llamarble.

Important: Everyone MUST consider that if there are 3 scums and there is a third party who can joint with scum, this is NOT a free ML. If we mislynch we would be 7 tomorrow, with 3 scums and a third party who will joint and make it game over. So please THINK harder before putting someone at L-1!!!

[andrew94]

i find both you and llarmarble townish = =

[lewarcher82]

My plan is stupid, if Darox is scum, everyone will simply know his name. I should quit posting 10 minutes after I wake up. Any idea how we can make it work?

[FakeGod]

Vote Count 2.19

"New Year." -mod

With drmyshottyizsik gone, all the votes are reseted.

Elleran (4): Llamarble, andrew94, RobCapone, don_johnson
RobCapone (1): Furcolow
Llamarble (1): Elleran

Not Voting: Zed, lewarcher82, Darox

With 9 players, it takes 5 votes to lynch someone.

The new deadline is Jan. 7th, 2011!

[Llamarble]

Explanation of my behavior:
I actually mentioned Elleran as a potential Daroxbuddy shortly before your post 663 attacking Elleran,
and mentioned him several times during your case against him before adding my vote.
Darox was scummy so I ended up spending a lot of time (also partially because of his annoyingness) attacking him.
And I had my vote on Shotty because I believed the evidence against him was sufficient for a lynch
and that if he was town his death would put us on track to lylo instead of mylo, losing him instead of the scums' choice of NKs.
Eventually strong post/action based scumreads began to override that, ultimately resulting in my joining the Elleran wagon.
At that point I found him scummy, partially for his attitude toward Darox and partially for other actions.
_After_ my vote on him, he claimed. (So it's not as though I didn't find him scummy until after the claim)
Several players unvoted, but I did not.
I tend to find PRclaims scummy, and I prefer to lynch after such a claim unless it looks particularly believable or is clearly checkable.
Therefore I looked to see if his claim was consistent with his actions, and found it was not.
Since then I have been pushing hard for his lynch.

∃(Godfather) --> ∃!(Godfather) What? Doesn't this imply there's no godfather? And why do you think that?
Rob v Furc v Andrew
Andrew could be scum who just inspects as scum.
It's a pretty weird / clever claim if he is though. Fakeclaim PM seems possible but still pretty odd.
The chances that 1 of the two is scum don't seem much different from the average from a setup perspective, though come massclaimtime the setup might get clearer.

I think the following assumptions are safe from a general perspective:
Rob and Furcolow are not both scum.
Elleran and I are not both scum.
If Elleran is town then Darox is town.

By the way one of the reasons tunneling can be pro-town is that it tends to produce this sort of relationship when it's genuine.

An Elleran flip will pretty much confirm either me or Darox as town and make the other look bad, which looks like the most informative flip.
Of course the scum can shoot the confirmed townie, but they might fail to, want to make wifom, or have another agenda.
The GCs can either use their power on me/Darox depending who looks scummy after the flip, or they can check someone else.
Probably leaving it up to them is best since it preserves the chance of a successful RB.
I want to lynch Elleran because I am confident he is scum, but it makes sense from a strategic perspective as well.

[lewarcher82]

∃(Godfather) --> ∃!(Godfather) What? Doesn't this imply there's no godfather? And why do you think that?

Nope, ∃! means "exists and it is unique"; it implies that if there is a godfather, there is only one. It is an assumption, based on the fact that normally there is not more than one. So it is hard to think that, if we have GF, it is anyone else but andrew, furco or rob.

Thanks for sharing your strategic thoughts. But I still don't see any real unconsistency in Elleran actions. I see he was a little clumsy, but I don't see any unquestionable conflicts between his claim and his actions. And I am surprised so many players voted him so quickly and so easily after shotty's flip.

Where is Darox???

And where is furco? I want to know his name, since Rob gave us his.

[lewarcher82]

I might have another suggestion. We lynch andrew. If he is not lying, we will know his claim is true and tomorrow we are on mylo, so we will choose to either massclaim or vote NL. If he is lying and he flips scum, it's all good.

Thoughts? Pros and cons?

[Elleran]

1) Here's the 'evidence' that I'm referring to:

i can guarantee a 50% chance of a lynch today
---
of it being on scum
well, near guarantee
---

vote: robcapone

my role pm gives me the impression that either rob or poisonivy is mafia
---
i disagree that it is stupid play. i feel like the mod has given me a 50/50 lynch from my perspective based upon my role pm.

@PoisonIvy, state your win condition

He refers to this throughout the rest of the day as his reason for voting Rob/Poison.

2) The quote I showed is the evidence that I have been referring to. Although I know that it cannot be confirmed in any shape or form, it IS something that was provided. Because this was better than nothing, I allowed the evidence to guide me to someone. It was NOT an attempt to 'lynch someone for being sensible'. Besides, if someone was being sensible, then in the perspective of a scum, it would be harder to lead a lynch against the player. It would be better for scum to shoot the player at night.

3) I agree that scums are 100% likely to lead a mislynch (unless a it's a bus) and that town is

less than

100% likely to lead one. However, understand that town-to-town mislynch is actually fairly common. Trying to blame me for the Poison mislynch seems like a stretch at best. I was doing what I thought was the right thing to do.

4) Like I said, I don't have a preference for either GC lynch. I voted for Rob because Furc was the one with the evidence. Unless Furc is a scum who outright risked his life to out that there is a scum in GC, Furc is probably town and thus Rob a scum. Furc's behavior seemed odd, yes. I even asked Furc why he wasn't pursuing Rob despite his own evidence at a certain point. However, I stuck to my vote against Rob anyway. It doesn't matter which of the GC dies today if either of them dies at all. As long as someone on my scumlist dies, I'll be fine.

5) Even more reason why I should have stayed hidden. According to your logic, if any strong town PR was under pressure and was forced to claim, the player would be lynched because it is less likely to hit a strong PR than scum. That's ridiculous.

6) Yes, I considered that as well. But if I came with evidence, the town would be more likely to believe me, and scums would be the main ones to disbelieve and frame me as a liar.

7) I am not responsible for Darox's actions. If he acted scummy and I didn't, but I protected Darox, that can mean that I am a cop with a result protecting a townie just as much as it can mean that I am a scum protecting a scumbuddy. I believe this point to be a null tell.

8) lol fine. My breadcrumb was obscure apparently. I could not have judged that. I have had times when someone else's breadcrumbs were hidden as the first letter (so capitalized) of each sentence in a paragraph that spelled out "JOKE". Using the last word of each sentence that were intentionally divided by line shouldn't have been impossible to find either. If you don't believe the breadcrumb because you don't think it was obvious enough, then I have nothing to say to that.

9) I didn't say anything because I did not have any other reason than my investigation to confirm that Darox was town. This led to my frustration when I was pressured for a reason why I was defending Darox as well. There are so many various reasons why I did not defend Darox immediately and only vaguely. Stop saying 'oh look, he did not say the same reason again so he must be scum trying to come up with excuses on the spot.' It is very frustrating to say the same things over and over again that I DID NOT have evidence to protect Darox other than my investigation, that I DID NOT want to attract attention to myself, and that I DID NOT want to claim to protect. You are trying to push me until I say something stupid so that you can 'nail' me on it. Your strategy is barbaric and semantic based, like I have said.

10) I never undermined his alignment. Darox is town. Period. I agree that I said that his behavior did not correlate to his alignment. I agree that I said he have not been very productive. I agree that I still don't think he's being helpful. However, he is town and that's that. Like I have said, I am NOT responsible for his actions. I know his alignment and that is all I have.

---

I'm using "semantic" argument as in you are using syntactical and word differences to attack me in many of your points, rather than my behavior or attitude. Yes, you have mixed points that are and aren't all semantic, but you are putting too much emphasis on semantic ones and I believe this to be wrong.

[Elleran]

i think the following assumptions are safe from a general perspective:
Rob and Furcolow are not both scum.
Elleran and I are not both scum.
If Elleran is town then Darox is town.

I agree with this.

By the way one of the reasons tunneling can be pro-town is that it tends to produce this sort of relationship when it's genuine.

Also as point that I agree with.

An Elleran flip will pretty much confirm either me or Darox as town and make the other look bad, which looks like the most informative flip.
Of course the scum can shoot the confirmed townie, but they might fail to, want to make wifom, or have another agenda.
The GCs can either use their power on me/Darox depending who looks scummy after the flip, or they can check someone else.
Probably leaving it up to them is best since it preserves the chance of a successful RB.
I want to lynch Elleran because I am confident he is scum, but it makes sense from a strategic perspective as well.

Once I flip, Darox will be a confirmed townie. There's not question to that at least to me. Whether I am lynched or shot at night, I will flip and then you will know. If there is a doctor role somewhere and I happen to survive, I can come back with a name-investigation, which I believe will be helpful if we are going to mass-claim tomorrow. Lynching me now means that the scum will have a free shot during the night, rather than having to waste it on me. I am

strongly

pushing for not lynching me today for strategic reasons as well.

[Darox]

Hey lewarcher, my name is Brave Bob.

QUICK THEORIZE WHAT IT COULD MEAN GOGOGOGOGO.

I guess I better reread and pick a name out of a hat to vote for. Either that or vote Llamarble, but that seems like a waste of a lynch.

[lewarcher82]

Hey lewarcher, my name is Brave Bob.

QUICK THEORIZE WHAT IT COULD MEAN GOGOGOGOGO.

I guess I better reread and pick a name out of a hat to vote for. Either that or vote Llamarble, but that seems like a waste of a lynch.

I did not ask you to out your name and I never theorised on the meaning of anybody's name. I am not going to tell you what you can do with your hat, cuz I hate rude people, but please, post some content and comment on the shotty wagon, on the case against Elleran and on the option of lynching andrew. This game is based on communication. Go play sudoku if you wanna play alone.

[Elleran]

elleran.

you trusted me more than your confirmed innocent darox.
do you think you are sane? do you think you got redirected/ darox is a godfather etc.
do you trust your results?
do your results match up with your original view of darox (if u havent checked him)


why did you say : i dont trust andrew anymore because he seems to be following everyone

1) No--correction; I spoke out that I trusted you, but nothing on Darox. I know Darox is town, but I didn't want to attract attention, etc. (read my responses to Llamarble on this. This has been covered more than 3 times already.)
2) I believe myself to be sane. If I am insane, then that will be extremely surprising to me, especially looking at my role PM and seeing that I am a character who is perfectly able to use a laptop and scanner kits.
3) Yes, I believe my results to be correct.
4) His behavior and his alignment seems to have no relationship. I wouldn't say that Darox has been the towniest character and he has had strange comments, but I would stand to defend him forever because he is town. My previous view of Darox was mixed; the reason why I investigated him.

I said I didn't trust you anymore because you have been recently following Rob and Llamarble's opinions without second though. Your votes were shallow and usually included no more than "I believe X. vote: Y".

[Elleran]

Oops, I didn't finish my thought on the last part.

EBWOP:
I said I didn't trust you anymore because you have been recently following Rob and Llamarble's opinions without second though. Your votes were shallow and usually included no more than "I believe X. vote: Y". This made me feel like you were following the lead of your scummates or perhaps voting without consideration. Players like you (if you are town) make scums smile because they do not require much effort to sway players like you.

[andrew94]

i dont think i followed rob???

@lew, your supposed to do that at an even number of ppl left, now theres an odd number, and if its a mylo 2morrow, and we Nl, its stupid.

[Elleran]

i dont think i followed rob???

Oops, my bad. I thought you had.

You still followed Llamarble, though.

[andrew94]

so??? = =

are you saying everyone joining a wagon must present a whole new piece of evidence. thats gonna be hard to find

[Zed]

I believe this is the first you have mentioned DJ, what exactly does he have to do with your decision?

See post #975

Zed, where is my logic against him not solid?

I found your logic pretty solid, I'm not going to poke holes in it, because most of my issue is that I just disagree with you. And I find Elleran's explanations more solid. You also repeat a few things that I found were sufficiently explained already, which makes me feel like you didn't read Elleran's posts that well before you posted, without acknowledging that they were things already mentioned. It also bugs me.

So, I am not for an Elleran, Darox of GC member lynch.
I am for a Llamarble lynch. I think basic game play says you do not lynch a claimed PR, because if they are a PR, they will be killed. Especially if the next day could be lylo. So why would he be pushing for a lynch, except to save a NL for someone else?

[Elleran]

so??? = =

are you saying everyone joining a wagon must present a whole new piece of evidence. thats gonna be hard to find

No, you don't need to build a whole case each time by yourself. I agree that that is ridiculous.

I mean that at least contribute to the wagon as you ride it. Point out things that the main person might have missed or ask questions that you curious of your own. Don't try to ask the same questions that have been asked or just agree or disagree with nothing other than "I agree. He's scum".

[lewarcher82]

i dont think i followed rob???

@lew, your supposed to do that at an even number of ppl left, now theres an odd number, and if its a mylo 2morrow, and we Nl, its stupid.

What are you talking about? I check your ISO and found nothing? What is this odd-even stuff supposed to mean?

moreover, go look up what mylo means before commenting on mylo-strategies and using words ("stupid") that are better referred to your post than to mine. This game is getting very disappointing. NL on mylo is a standard practice, unless someone is confirmed scum.

[Llamarble]

Andrew is our ideal lynch in mylo, since he's either scum or a no lynch + confirmed town.
Unless we reach in that situation, the only reason to lynch him is if we think he's the most likely scum.

Big post coming. I'll try to be as concise as possible.

[lewarcher82]

Andrew is our ideal lynch in mylo, since he's either scum or a no lynch + confirmed town.
Unless we reach in that situation, the only reason to lynch him is if we think he's the most likely scum.

Big post coming. I'll try to be as concise as possible.

If we lynch today and we assume there are 3 scum, there won't be any mylo tomorrow.

[andrew94]

i dont think i followed rob???

@lew, your supposed to do that at an even number of ppl left, now theres an odd number, and if its a mylo 2morrow, and we Nl, its stupid.

What are you talking about? I check your ISO and found nothing? What is this odd-even stuff supposed to mean?

moreover, go look up what mylo means before commenting on mylo-strategies and using words ("stupid") that are better referred to your post than to mine. This game is getting very disappointing. NL on mylo is a standard practice, unless someone is confirmed scum.

hello? you are stupid

theres 9 people now.
if we fail today, its 7 ppl 2morrow, MLYO, (if no sk etc) if theres a sk, most likely only 2 scums
ur suggestion was to lynch me
then tommorrow is 8ppl (asssuming no sk again)
and then its MYLO.
o yea, what a great idea.


odd means odd number of ppl,, even means even number of people?