Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Patrick]

Votecount

HackerHuck (2) -- Ether, Ythill
Porochaz (2) -- Shanba, CrashTextDummie
chamber (1) -- Lord Gurgi
ChannelDelibird (1) -- chamber
Shanba (2) -- Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: MrBuddyLee, ChannelDelibird, HackerHuck, Porochaz
12 alive, 7 to lynch

[Glork]

(1) Ythill, please explain in what posts Ether showed "being comfortable" on the doctor at the end of D1?
(2) Also, how much would you expect scum to distance during D1 of this partiuclar game?
(3) What in the vote count caused you to decide Yos was the kill?
(4) I'm assuming "The scum were entrenched" refers to the largely static nature of the VC?
(4) How did you draw a conclusion that scum would push a Yos-lynch early D2 from your analysis up to this point?

(1) Simply, Stark (who is now Ether) stayed on a claimed doc long after the wagon fell apart.
(2) Not sure. Why?
(3) Three town on him and no scum took the bait.
(4) It refers to the fact that he would have been a good mislynch but no scum took the bait.
(5) Entrenched scum freed by the phase change. Noticing that this is slightly less telling than I thought originally because, being tired, I neglected to consider that one of the three townie Yos-haters was dead before D2.

In a similar vein, it is very odd that there wasn't more of a push for MBL on D2, especially if Glork is town.

1) Ether/Stark

didn't make a single post between Ecto's claim and the end of the day

. I wanted you to ask what posts, but you obviously have no answer. How can Ehter gain brownie points for having lurked/inactived through the entire time during and after Ecto's claim?
2) It's extremely relevant to the validity of your analysis. I want to know.
3) So having been proven wrong about Yos, what does that tell you about the scums?
4) See 3.
5) I guess I'm still not getting what you're trying to say here. So the scums stood on whomever they were voting D1, then suddenly decided Yos would be ideal lynchbait going into D2? What line of reasoning is leading you to this conclusion?

I agree with you that the lack of MBL-push D2 seems weird. I don't think it implicates MBL, though, as his play has been very solidly protown since after the Ectowagon D1.



Ether: I'll answer your question when I go back and re-read Shanba. I plan on reading Shanba, CDB, CTD, and CES in isolation (and probably in that order) and I'll be sure to note Shanba's behavior towards Ecto when I do so.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Check #1. Stark made

one

post, but it a contentless check-in post that gave no indication that he had read anything in the thread since his pre-Ectoclaim post. Sorry, I thought Ether had replaced Stark before the end of D1, and subsequently was skimming for her avatar -- not Stark's.

[Glork]

EBWOTP: My point still stands. Stark was inactive, so "he was comfortable on Ecto post-claim" is a grossly inaccurate statement. If you're going to do VCA, you'd better make sure that the observations you make are factually backed up, Ythill, not completely arbitrary.

Bottom line, I don't trust your ability to Vig properly, even tonight. Your main suspects/targets have been Mert, Fritz, Yos, and inHim -- all of whom have flipped town. And you're obviously headed down the wrong path today having decided that HH and I are among your top suspects. Now I'm seeing an analysis marred by flawed observations and arbitrary/unfounded assumptions and conclusions. Quit looking at mod-counted snapshots of the game and do some REAL analysis.

[Ythill]

1) Point taken. I will eat Ether's brownie myself.

2) Well sorry, I really don't know. I suppose that distancing would be slightly less likely here than usual, because I'd expect experienced scum to either go for the full bus or stay away from their buddies. But that's all conjecture, and nothing I thought of before doing the VCA.

3 + 4) That they were entrenched elsewhere, which I've already said. Entrenched = voting with a strong opinion or against one of the current Yos-haters, so that a switch was too much of a bother.

5) Not suddenly. They had all night to talk about it. The reasoning is simple. I think it was obvious to them that inHim vs. Yos was in the cards for D2 and they had yet to push against Yos, so they needed to get in gear for that. Especially if MBL is scum.

I don't care whether or not you trust me to vig properly. I stand by the Fritzler and Yos kills even though they were town. And I'll scumhunt as I see fit, tyvm. If you have any real pointers, save them for MD or someplace else where your intentions are not in question.

[Glork]

Ythill, just some context: The most recent New York game I played, our team lost because even though I was leading the town in the right direction, our Vigilante killed FOUR protown players in four nights. We simply could not overcome that kind of terribleness. I do NOT want that to ever happen again, so you're going to have to deal with me being pushy towards you whether you like it or not. You probably won't take my advice, but I'm not a big fan of losing games because the vig was the scums' MVP.

[Ythill]

You don't have anything to worry about. I promise I will not kill town tonight.

[Ythill]

Also, don't act like you're not glad Yos is dead. That was a good shot and you know it.

[Ether]

The Yoskill was pretty awful. (Of course, I was kind of hoping to have myself sorted out and defend him

today

, and we see how that worked out.)

[Ether]

Ooh, and he vanishes without comment.


I could be wrong on Huck I guess.

Heh.

[Ythill]

@Ether:

From you PoV, absolutely. However, from Glork's PoV...

If Glork = town, I flipped one of his top suspects. If Glork = scum, I shot the only person more likely than him to be a target. Either way, his criticism of the kill seems out of character.

[Glork]

I'm not criticizing the kill. I'm criticizing your ability to find scum.

[Ether]

This discussion is no longer interesting to me. Let's discuss Porochaz.

[Ether]

Apparently his post about being V/LA was yesterday and we're just posting fast. Scratch that; we can harass somebody else.

Glork, no chance you know about the CDB meta that chamber was referring to earlier?

[Ether]

Looks like Porochaz is online after all. Hi!

[Porochaz]

Im on but its 4am, Im just keeping read up.

[Glork]

That chamber is referring to? Not likely.

The only game that I actually remember CDB being scum in was Face-To-Face, and he was pretty lurky there, too. That has definitely been a factor in my deicision to take a look at him today.

[Ether]

Hey, Gurgi.

You should help me lynch HackerHuck. He's just logged out and avoided yet another possible confrontation with me.

[HackerHuck]

Hey, Gurgi.

You should help me lynch HackerHuck. He's just logged out and avoided yet another possible confrontation with me.

what?


Quick look at end of day votes. We know Yos and InHim were town. Is it possible that Gurgi no one was voting scum at the end of the day?

Final Votecount

Yosarian2

(4) -- Glork, CrashTextDummie,

Ythill

,

inHimshallibe

inHimshallibe

(8) -- ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber,

HackerHuck

,

Yosarian2

, Porochaz, MrBuddyLee
Lord Gurgi (1) --

DrippingGoofball

Not voting: Ether, Shanba

Obviously green is confirmed town for all of you and I'm using blue to note the two people I know aren't mafia. I really doubt Ythill is SK, but I don't see any possible way that he's mafia.
Again, I'm lazy and I'm sure that there's at least one scum that didn't vote for a lynch. That means I'll look at the folks not on the InHim wagon:
Glork, CTD, Ether, and Shanba. Unlike D1, the non-voters make up half of the people not on the wagon, so I feel that they should be included. If we line this up with my last 'not lynching' list, we see Glork, Ether, and Shanba. CTD is the new member to this group and none of the others - Gurgi or Chamber have flipped. MBL was not on the lynch D1, but I still feel he's probably town.

So, I see one scum in this group:
Stark, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Chamber and Glork
and one scum in this group:
Glork, CTD, Ether, and Shanba

Given the overlap, odds are that we have one scum that avoided both lynches. I still like Ether and Shanba from yesterday, but I'll still take a look through that whole group.
I don't see any Ether vote getting any traction without finding new dirt.

Vote: Shanba

[HackerHuck]

Ether - before you accuse me of dodging you...
I am - I'll be away for a couple of hours, but I'm not going to bother logging out.

[Ether]

It still stuns me that a fogeys game would put any value whatsoever in votecount analysis, but whatever. I think that you're using it to distance yourself from saying something that's actually meaningful.

I

am

amused that you're

not

looking to have a chat with someone who's supposedly in your top two (assuming that's been true for a while--you've been pretty vague). Aren't you supposed to be trying to figure out if I'm scum, HackerHuck?

[MrBuddyLee]

Huck, it's cool that you're taking a different approach to find scum. Whatever people have been doing hasn't been working. But it's impossible to get a read on you if you just play the odds based on where scum are likely or not likely to be. Would love to see more from you like:

What may be more important is that Ythill is calling Yos' lack of voting trail scummy while not being so concerned about MBL's.

even if you're wrong, it gives more info on you. And we need more info on everyone.

What do you guys think about asking everyone to answer the following question:

"How is my play as scum different from my play in this game?"

I'll start by answering. I think when I'm scum, I lock in more firmly on "beliefs"--I'm paranoid about being seen as an inconsistent switcher. I'm not really good at flip-flopping in a realistic manner. So I think as scum I'm more likely to pick out "good guys" and "bad guys" and lock those beliefs in. I also have a bad tendency to clear too many players as scum. In a game on another site a few months back, I was stuck near endgame with three scumpartners and a bunch of townies I'd semi-cleared because I figured everyone else saw them as obvtown for various reasons and I'd look bad by bucking the trend.

[Lord Gurgi]

I don't really like self describing meta. It's useless. Is there a reason you asked? A reason you went ahead anyway? Are you expecting everyone to want this?

Ythill: Sorry vis-a-vis the scum thing. Unless you're SK.

Ether, okay, I guess. I mean I always had a vague feeling HH was town, but it was never based off of anything. VOTE: HackerHuck. Better than chamber vote.

So because I read pretty much everyone alive as town I'm going to be more stringent.

Town, WTF are you voting them?
MBL
Ether
Shanba
Ythill

Neutral
Glork
CES

Scum-ish
HH
chamber
CTD

Lurkers
Prozac
CDB

CES is on the neutral list and not the scum list largely because of how awful the wagons were against him. Glrok because we haven't caught scum yet, and it's all his fault. Everything else should be pretty clear.

[Ether]

Huck, it's cool that you're taking a different approach to find scum. Whatever people have been doing hasn't been working. But it's impossible to get a read on you if you just play the odds based on where scum are likely or not likely to be. Would love to see more from you like:

What may be more important is that Ythill is calling Yos' lack of voting trail scummy while not being so concerned about MBL's.

even if you're wrong, it gives more info on you. And we need more info on everyone.

Do you think HackerHuck is scum?

As for my meta, I could go on for hours.

It's...probably clear to everyone by this point that I'm only effective when I've got a combo running. The longer it's been since my last post, the harder it is for me to make a new one, and I can pretty much only develop useful reads once my nails are securely in place. That just doesn't happen at all when I'm scum; the differences aren't subtle at all, and I'm probably one of the ten easiest people to read on the site if you know what you're doing. (I used to hammer this in constantly, until I realized that I wasn't getting lynched either way and I was sick of talking about myself.) I don't really know how I'd play as replacementscum specifically, or even if I'd still be the person controlling this slot. The last time I was scum, I was constantly putting off posting until late night/early morning, making a post a few paragraphs long and falling right back into my regular patterns without so much as one of the late night marathons you saw from me here on Day 2. I could give links, but really, I'd rather just not.

Gurgi, you should answer because this is an invitational and there are some things people gotta know about us flashy invitational types.

[Lord Gurgi]

I play like JD as scum. Loud, yell at people until they agree that I'm right. But that was years ago, and I haven't played scum since. I generally lynch the same people I would as town. Don't really bus except if they're really bad. I usually try to draw connections between as many people and myself as I can before I die to stop my buddies from getting outed. I don't usually win as scum because stuff happens like what caused my title.