Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[MrBuddyLee]

An MBL lynch is a compromise I am willing to make.

Details, please.

[Lord Gurgi]

Which one?

[Ether]

Ythill thinks you're scum because he thinks you're scum with Glork. I think Glork is probably an insane cop, and got an innocent on you because you're scum.

The first part, Gurgi.

[Ether]

MBL, why'd you ask Glork about his sanity when he had an innocent on you? Were you really worried about naivety? What were you thinking about HackerHuck?

By the way, you might want to actually answer me.

[Lord Gurgi]

Don't you mean in your post that both cops are true? I kind of read MBL as having similar views since neither of you are promoting the lynch of Glork vs CTD. It seems like you're setting up a false dilemma argument.

[Ether]

I...still don't know what you're getting at.

[Ether]

You mean that I think that Glork and Crash are both telling the truth, and it's not a "one of them is a cop and one is lying scum" situation? Yes.

[Ether]

Glork, does your role explicitly say that you

aren't

confirmed?

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, why'd you ask Glork about his sanity when he had an innocent on you? Were you really worried about naivety? What were you thinking about HackerHuck?

By the way, you might want to actually answer me.

I was joking around because Glork and I have so much fun being on opposite sides, and because he seemed so convinced I was scum earlier this game. I was also saddened at the time by the waste of a cop investigation on me, plus saddened by becoming a publicly confirmed townie.

So you have no play-based reasons for wanting me lynched, Ether? That's super, duper, ooper lame and probably at least a little scummy.

I'm not saying that I believe both cops are really cops, I'm just saying that on first read, they both played D2 like cops with the results they claim to have.

[Ether]

Something like that. My plan was always to put you off until I could see a few interactions and shit; Ythill's stance on Glork forced my hand there.

Incidentally, I've seen his paranoia rising up. If he really needs me to explain in excruciating detail why I'm town to make him feel better, I could arrange that.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why insane, Ether, and not naive? If Glrok is a non-sane cop, naive is the best explanation (also: less swingy).

[MrBuddyLee]

All of the following quotes were written by Glork, about MBL, after he supposedly investigated him as innocent. There were others where Glork was pressuring MBL, but didn't state or imply suspicion, so I left them out.

...

It's interesting that the cop crumbs and whatnot seemed to start D2 and Glork definately went into N2 knowing that he was going to claim to have investigated HH.

Most of the Glork posts you cited seem reasonable coming from a cop with a result. He yelled at me for not voting, he asked Huck about an unusual omission of Huck's, poked me about removing my vote from inHim, and he questioned me legitimately about my day-early hammer yesterday. It's possible that he's scum faking it, but it looks somewhat like a cop with a result who doesn't want to get spotted turning on a dime right away. You have to admit, he doesn't really have any other obvious reason for his flip on me from Dec. 6th to Dec. 11th.

Look at his posts on the 11th.

I'm pretty sure that one of the prior alternate wagons {MBL, inHim, Yos} was scum.

And then he proceeds to consider voting inHim and Yos but doesn't remotely consider voting me, his top D1 suspect. And then he votes Shanba. On the 18th he calls me out: "Man up and start hunting scum." On the 22nd: "MBL: Not all that likely to be scum." On the 24th: "MBL is spewing nonsense" but doesn't call me scummy for it. On the 26th: "100% town = Glork, MBL, DGB, Chamber, Ythill" It's pretty clear he is either a cop or made the overnight decision to fake cop with a result on MBL/Shanba. He made his transition on me look gradual, which is what you'd expect from a savvy cop.

CTD did the same thing. Started casually D2 mentioning that he forgot why he suspected Shanba. That, after having Shanba at about 80% likelihood of scum in the last week of D1. Then, three days later, CTD uses the fast-building Shanbawagon as a tool to solidify his switch to Shanba=town. The transition is complete on the 22nd: "PS: I don't condone the vigging of Shanba under any circumstances."

[MrBuddyLee]

My concern that Glork was setting up a possible fake result on either of Shanba/MBL is somewhat lessened by CTD's claim of an innocent on Shanba. It really looked like Glork set up a future Shanba=scum Glorkcopclaim in that post where he said Shanba was definitely scum three times. But if paranoia says Glork is scum with a scumPartnerPositive on Shanba, then CTD would have to be insane/naive/scum as well with his innocent on Shanba. I suppose they could both be scum setting us up for scumShanba = confirmed town when evil fakecop Glork dies. But meh, that's convoluted.

I suppose we could have two scumteams, each with a freakin cop for the opposite team. Which would make Ythill possible scum. But I don't really see that as incredibly likely.

[Patrick]

Votecount

HackerHuck (2) -- Lord Gurgi, ChannelDelibird
Porochaz (1) -- Shanba
ChannelDelibird (1) -- chamber
Shanba (2) -- Glork, HackerHuck
Glork (3) -- Ythill, CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: MrBuddyLee, Porochaz, Ether
12 alive, 7 to lynch

[MrBuddyLee]

Not likely town - it just became likelier. I got the feeling that Glrok was bussing Shanba based on behaviour and Glrok's other suspects flipping town which according to sample calculations gave Shanba a 2/3rds chance of being scum if Glrok was.

I also had the sense at one point that Glork might have been busing Shanba. This is a town perspective by CES. I'm not sure about the quick Glork vote though. CES, are you that sure Glork is full of it?

I get a lot of townish reads from CES's posts this game. I also thought inHim and Ecto were possible scum, so whatever.

[HackerHuck]

In rereading Glork's ISO, I was bothered by his decision to investigate me since he had spent most of Day2 focusing on Shanba and Yos as scum.
If you look at the trail from 141-143 in his ISO, there is some evidence of crumbing followed by his statement that I'm not the play for today. I can also see how Glork was crumbing town results on MBL.

I guess my concern with his claim still centers around three things:
1- Why the switch from one of Yos/Shanba to me?
2- Why the lack of concern around sanity
3- The early claim based on very little pressure

Ether - do you think that 4 scums is the only option balance-wise with a vig and two sane cops?

[MrBuddyLee]

Not likely town - it just became likelier. I got the feeling that Glrok was bussing Shanba based on behaviour and Glrok's other suspects flipping town which according to sample calculations gave Shanba a 2/3rds chance of being scum if Glrok was.

So when you said:

2) If Glrok isn't scum, then there's still a good chance of Shanba being scum on account of Glrok being a good scumhunter.

Because either Glrok is town and I should sheep him or he's scum and he's likely bussing Shanba (Yos flipping town being relevant here) combined with an absence of town tells.

you basically meant that you had a rock solid Glork+Shanba read but that if Glork came up town Shanba was still likely scum, just less likely?

What's your read on Shanba's play, independent of anything Glork's done?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're right, MBL, I was probably too quick there; reading Glrok's iso as per #2086 undermines the quotes ythill pulled up.

Unvote

, I'll have to think about this.

I'd also like to see a full accounting of why he chose to investigate HH.

Preview Edit: Yes. Null.

[MrBuddyLee]

What do you guys think about asking everyone to answer the following question:

"How is my play as scum different from my play in this game?"

Answered: Glork, MBL, Gurgi, Ether, CES, Ythill
Did not answer: CDB, CTD, Porochaz, chamber, Huck, Shanba

Ether, this kind of flip-flop got inHim lynched:

MBL is...probably also town as well.

An MBL lynch is a compromise I am willing to make.

If you are town, please don't play sloppily.

[Ether]

I changed my mind after rethinking stuff in light of a fuckton of claims and new information. You can portray it how you like, but it's pretty stupid to write something like that off that way. (Incidentally, the flipflop that got inHim lynched is the biggest tell in your favor in my eyes.)

Wheeeeeeee setup speculation post.

Why insane, Ether, and not naive? If Glrok is a non-sane cop, naive is the best explanation (also: less swingy).

Um, no it's not? You'd think there'd be a strongish information role somewhere. Naïve cop + one-shot cop + watcher is getting pretty convoluted for Patrick.

Ether - do you think that 4 scums is the only option balance-wise with a vig and two sane cops?

I do not think that Patrick would, under any circumstances, put any number other than 4 scum into an 18-player game. (Also, a one-shot cop is not a full-blown cop in any way; stop pretending it is.)

[MrBuddyLee]

I changed my mind after rethinking stuff in light of a fuckton of claims and new information. You can portray it how you like, but it's pretty stupid to write something like that off that way.

You changed your "opinion" of me from likely town to the most likely scum. Based entirely on setup speculation.

[Ether]

An "ellipsis...uh, let's say he's also town" read is not as strong as you're suggesting it is. Speaking as someone who actually

has

strong town reads.

[MrBuddyLee]

What I'm trying to get across is that as a townie, I am looking for inconsistencies. Your willingness to vote me now based

solely

on the perfect storm (and incorrect) speculation of "Glork is an an insane cop, Crash is a sane 1-shot cop, Huck and MBL are scum" after finding me "probably town" recently is disturbing. But as inHim so recently proved with his fakeclaim and quick flipflop on Yos, townies can do the zaniest things.

Prove to me via your play today that your terrible flip-flop isn't scummy.

[Ether]

I know what you're trying to get across. And it's ridiculous, but I don't care enough what you think about me to have this kind of back and forth with you. You've already gotten my reaction to the "inconsistency."

[Ether]

So what do you think about all the claims, MBL? Who's scum?