Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Patrick]

Votecount

HackerHuck (4) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Shanba
ChannelDelibird (2) -- CrashTextDummie, MrBuddyLee
Porochaz (1) -- HackerHuck
MrBuddyLee (1) -- Ether

Not voting: Porochaz, chamber
10 alive, 6 to lynch

[Ether]

You're gonna say what you're thinking now and what you expect before you've done all those reads you've promised.

[ChannelDelibird]

I refer you to this post:

Glork, HH...then I'm not sure between Prozac, CES, chamber. It's probably two of those three who I still owe a reread on (yes, I'm still behind there. I'm sorry. I doubt I will be able to do that before deadline hits but I'll have reread all of them by daybreak Day 4, and if I haven't, lynch me). I'm pretty shit at vote-analysis but I'll try to include that in rereads.

That's what I'm thinking right now.

[Shanba]

It cracks me up that anyone would criticize me for asking questions in a game where people aren't saying all that much, just plunking down their votes.

I'm not criticising you, I just feel... well we're down to the lurkers and you. If you're not providing tons of content, we're gonna be short of content. So baiting you into a post like that is brilliant.

I think Ether has played horribly as town or brilliantly as scum. Scratch that. She had some decent early opinions on CTD, DGB, Ythill, Shanba, Yos, albeit with minimal evidence stated. Lots of town reads, not many scum reads. Seemed to be reading people's posts thoughtfully. I didn't like that she tried to stop DGB from vigging. She protected Glork all day. She's had lots of town reads and no consistent strong scum reads except Huck. If he's scum, she's probably town, as she's tried to bury him for a few days now. I don't really like how when Glork claimed and CTD countered, she tried to fit everything into her view on Glork instead of following the evidence. Glork HAD to be town, so Huck was no longer a top suspect, so Porochaz became her top suspect, and she suddenly became willing to lynch me, who she'd recently found townish. Annoying or scummy. Definitely annoying, and if not scummy then just a very different way than I play.

All of this I would summarise as "reasons ether is town", to be honest. I've never seen her go all out on finding scum; she's much more likely to find a bunch of people she thinks are town and maybe one or two scumreads, at least from my experience with playing with her. Her early game when she just replaced in was like super super townish - I think she's been coasting on that a little since, and I'd like to see her stepping it up again, but I'm not seeing her as scum. That's despite some reads I'd categorise as odd, particularly with regards to both you and CES.

In general, I just don't see how much of her plays make sense as scum. It's one thing to go all "yeah my scumbuddy is pro-town" but to do so in the face of mass opposition seems real iffy. And then to get all equivocal about him when he's getting lynched instead of finding some bs reason to bus is roughly what I'd expect from a townie. There's no fake bravado, anyway. Like how you were pushing to get another analysis post from him (and crucially voting him when he didn't deliver) - I reckon that was probably an indication (if only a weak one) that you're town. Conscientious, making sure, probably have some doubts cause you're a townie. I mean, from someone like glork I'd expect bravado, but from someone like Ether I expect self doubt and that's what happened.

Hackerhuck at this point could be reading a different game to me for all his reads make any sense. Like, of the uncleareds the people I would be least likely to want to lynch are Ether, Gurgi and MBL, followed at a distance by chamber. Making the only read we agree on being MBL. That doesn't inspire me with confidence - I expect to at least be able to feel where a townie is coming from. Frankly I just want him dead at this point. He's likely scum. I can kinda see how one would see ether/chamber/gurgi as scummy, but if you're nitpicking hard enough to see that shit why would you not be all over the likes of prozac and cdb? I guess one scum in that group is not an earth shattering conclusion, but it's a head scratching one. His reasons are there, but a little off. Like, he didn't mention the other people at all in that thought process, and I don't see why he thinks the Mert wagon would necessarily split votes or anything. Eh. I'm not a huuuge fan of votecount analysis anyway.

Today we desperately need contributions from our lurkers. Like real bad. I mean, what if we had an endgame of something like prozac/chamber/cdb or similar - how the hell would any two townies make a decision there? HOw would any townie choose between cdb, prozac, chamber and gurgi? I have reads on them but they're not strong reads. It's been hard to even come to a decision on Hackerhuck, and he's posted a lot more content than those guys.

CDB, if you're town and you want town to win you have to step it up now. NO PRESSURE.

[Shanba]

Don't bother with vote count analysis. Just get some thoughts on a page. Votecount analysis doesn't tell us anything about YOU.

[Shanba]

OH also MBL I picked on you cause you'd just posted so I figured you were online.

[Ether]

Shanba, why are Gurgi and MBL town?

[Shanba]

Shanba, why are Gurgi and MBL town?

Gurgi is just an absence of evidence thing, more or less. Plus although his contributions are under par, when he

has

contributed it's generally been of a higher standard than the other lurkers. The net result is that I feel like of the lurkers, he's the least likely to be scum. I'm not sure if he's even a lurker really, except for the fact that recently he's been absent.

MBL I just don't see how people see him as scum. I AM a sucker for the !EFFORT! types, but just generally he's had a habit of being right about things. You know when you're reading a game or playing a game and some guy is just obvtown? It's like that with MBL, but weaker. Like, I'm sure if I went through his iso and stuff I'd find things that would make me doubt and other things that would reinforce my view, but I'm pretty content with my gut read on him.

[HackerHuck]

I didn't. I thought you were both likely scum, especially you. (That was the first time my attention had really been drawn to MBL, I believe. Can't remember if anything had been bugging me strongly before then.) But Ythill had just made a post indicating that he thought Glork and MBL was scum together. As I said at the time, MBL was a compromise I was prepared to make.

Yet you unvoted me after Glork claimed :/ Do you really think that Glork would claim two of his buddies as innocents?

Hackerhuck at this point could be reading a different game to me for all his reads make any sense. Like, of the uncleareds the people I would be least likely to want to lynch are Ether, Gurgi and MBL, followed at a distance by chamber. Making the only read we agree on being MBL. That doesn't inspire me with confidence - I expect to at least be able to feel where a townie is coming from. Frankly I just want him dead at this point. He's likely scum. I can kinda see how one would see ether/chamber/gurgi as scummy, but if you're nitpicking hard enough to see that shit why would you not be all over the likes of prozac and cdb? I guess one scum in that group is not an earth shattering conclusion, but it's a head scratching one. His reasons are there, but a little off. Like, he didn't mention the other people at all in that thought process, and I don't see why he thinks the Mert wagon would necessarily split votes or anything. Eh. I'm not a huuuge fan of votecount analysis anyway.

Please pay more attention to what I said. That wasn't a vote-count analysis, rather a review of Glork's behaviour toward me early in Day 2. He made a comment that I hadn't considered from a scum perspective yet, so I explored it. In case you haven't noticed, I'm the likely lynch today and there isn't really anything I can defend myself against. I'm trying to get new ideas out there so that people have some things to look at after I flip.

[Shanba]

Statistically speaking, even assuming MBL scum and Glork as the only scum in those five, I would have been better off looking at the 9 survivors that lynched Mert. I obviously exclude myself from those nine, so that's trying to find 2 scum in 8 people versus 1 in 5.

It's this bit I don't get.

[Ether]

Of course I unvoted you after Glork claimed with an innocent on you. Crash's counterclaim was what made me start thinking about insane cops and shit. (And I absolutely think Glork would claim two of his buddies as innocents. It's pretty clear that he went out of his way to set up a cop claim beforehand; my best guess is that if he'd had his way, he'd have claimed today with all three of his buddies cleared.)

MBL's play just seems to me like a constant stream of asking questions to get out of drawing conclusions, and waiting until as late in the day as possible so it matters less when he absolutely has to. If he's town, I think we'll both need an amicable chat after the game about why we drive each other so crazy.

Her early game when she just replaced in was like super super townish - I think she's been coasting on that a little since, and I'd like to see her stepping it up again,

Meh. That's...not really how I felt about my Day 2 play. I know you said I got epic reactions, but to me those were just by-products of a dark time when Patrick was politely asking me every few days if I needed to be replaced. When you're flailing around helplessly in the water trying not to drown, ripples happen, you know?

[Shanba]

Meh. That's...not really how I felt about my Day 2 play. I know you said I got epic reactions, but to me those were just by-products of a dark time when Patrick was politely asking me every few days if I needed to be replaced. When you're flailing around helplessly in the water trying not to drown, ripples happen, you know?

I think it was more that you started asking questions at a time when most people were just stating conclusions. As a result, you were able to sort of disrupt established patterns of thought, which is probably in general a good thing for town. I mean, it did make me question a glorkscum read I had, but eh, I feel like it was helpful to me anyway. I was completely fixated on yos at that point and I didn't feel I was communicating my ideas well, and your questioning was the thing that helped me get it across. Moreover, if Glork had been town I think that would have been the moment that he stopped and re-evaluated too. That's just a feel thing though. It was just helpful generally, and if you're a townie that's at least somethign useful you can do if you're flailing, and it shows that you're at least semi-interested in the game.

I like question asking, and I also don't mind that he's waiting to give conclusions. In fact, the fact that he instantly gave a whole slew of responses makes me feel really really good about him - he's had to have had that stuff prepared in his mind ahead of time, which kind of shoots down the idea that he's scum avoiding giving opinions. It feels like he's thinking about and analysing the game, and the questions are a result of that.

[MrBuddyLee]

So because I read pretty much everyone alive as town I'm going to be more stringent.

Town, WTF are you voting them?
MBL
Ether
Shanba
Ythill

Neutral
Glork
CES

Scum-ish
HH
chamber
CTD

Lurkers
Prozac
CDB

CES is on the neutral list and not the scum list largely because of how awful the wagons were against him. Glrok because we haven't caught scum yet, and it's all his fault. Everything else should be pretty clear.

Gurgi,

I just reviewed the CES wagons and they were all small and all consisted of dead townies. DGB, Ythill, inHim, Mert. Glork on CES happened after you made this post. What exactly scared you off about the old CES wagons? Was someone you found scummy talking shit about CES? Because I can't find it. I see that you've found him scummier recently, but your only stated reason was that he was correcting people too much. He seemed to actually be correcting them about decent things, and this was in a period of time when the most important thing was to properly analyze roles and setup, and I think he was actually making important distinctions. I think he's scummish, but to think that fully I'd have to think that he intentionally played that Glork stretch pretty well as fake-town. Asked Pat about the sanity issue, sort of hammered Glork for slipping, seemed to waver the same amount as reasonable town would based on the evidence. Can you please explain your current stance on CES?

(Before I forget, another interesting point about CES is that he tried to persuade DGB and Glork to unvote me and vote a more lynchable target D1, back when Glork was attacking me like a rabid, retarded water buffalo. It's an odd thing to imagine scum saying to scum, and super stylish if CES is scumpartners with Glork.)

Gurgi, you've also found Huck scummy recently, for an exchange with Ether. I read the stretch, and Huck doesn't look great, though it's more http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 9#p2714329 and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p2728040 and

I was also thinking that a CES/Porochaz scumpair is a possibility. They've managed to distance themselves pretty well in voting behaviour and CES has maybe mentioned him once all game.

(which seems randomly out of place)
than anything about him supposedly avoiding Ether. I find much of your voting reasoning thin but believable. You kept your vote on chamber all day because you were unsure about Glork until he slipped. Now you're on Huck and suddenly seem open to voting me, who you've found pretty damned town all game. I won't hold you to that old analysis, but sometime down the road I'm curious to hear why you're reading me differently.

Why do you think you're the only person who has chamber at the top of their scumlist? Is there something we're missing? I'm about to read, him, CDB and Poro for the zillionth time, and I tend to put them chamber in a different bucket from the other two. CDB and Poro have almost played the prototypical scum game. chamber, he was pretty involved early and for the past few weeks seems to be inactive for god knows why.

Do you have any read on CDB or Poro, or any way to tell them apart al all? In a final three with them, would you flip a coin? You pretty much haven't touched them all, and you've actually seemed to oppose wagons on them a few times because they're lurkers. What if the lurkers are scum?

A lot of questions.. answer as many as you have time to. I don't really think you're scum, and would like your opinions to help find scum, and in the offchance you're scum, having you on the record about some of these guys will be useful.

[MrBuddyLee]

Now make a post about who you would remotely consider lynching.

I think I've said that or implied it several times, but I'll repeat it because you're being a pain. (It's possible I haven't made it clear enough, in which case I apologize, but I've been posting a lot of thoughts on these guys and their interactions with Glork and I work through a lot of different iso/thread reads before I'm really willing to commit firmly to a worldview.)

CDB, Porochaz (if I convince myself his wagon wasn't a scum alternative to Glork.. and it doesn't look like it) top picks, lesser chance Huck but that may change when I read him again. (the recent reread I did of him was an iso specific to his interactions with Glork)

If all three are town, I'll be shocked. That would make scum three of {CES, CTD, Ether, Shanba, chamber, Gurgi}, which I'm really not seeing. CES irked me with the way he played Shanba-Glork but I've had enough minor townish tells from him that I more want his opinions than his lynch. CTD isn't scum unless he and Glork are adrenaline junkies. Ether is whatever. Shanba is lazy but investigated and probably town. chamber is a falling star and deserves a reread but meh. Gurgi just feels town but hasn't given a ton of scumreads to help back it up.

[Ether]

CDB was the only one of those three I was getting any feeling of suspicion from you on. Every time I see you vote CDB, I think, "Yep. He's deflecting from HackerHuck and/or Porochaz."

Mostly I'm just rolling my eyes because Shanba asked you for your current thoughts on the game, and your response was 5/6ths me (concluding that you weren't going to lynch me today anyway--and it's not like I was a point of discussion before your post) and the remaining paragraph only mentioned a single person (Huck) in passing without coming to any conclusion.

Well not really, the whole cop-doc thing comes into play here as well. In that a one shot cop is a perfect way to fill the void where a cop causes problems. Also with a vig, a supersaint, a one shot cop, a full cop and a doc in this town its getting a little crowded, no? I see it as a perfectly valid counterclaim.

PS. This is, in and of itself, a valid reason to lynch Porochaz. Discuss.

[Shanba]

Man even just skimming back a bit there's so much that should have tipped me off about glork. Like the fritz kill for instance. Only one guy was shouting from the rooftops about how townish fritzler looked and that was glork. Hindsight is 20:20 I suppose.

Anyway I'm going to bed now (after this post to blatantly inflate my post count and make me feel less bad about my lurkiness). Any more questions for me will be addressed tomorrow. Weird the spurts of activity this thread is having now - I'mma have to think about that.

Final thoughts: what do people make of chamber? Thinking back, I'm getting kinda edgy about him. I need to reread him tomorrow and also check out deadyostown's posts about him to see if he had a point.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mostly I'm just rolling my eyes because Shanba asked you for your current thoughts on the game, and your response was 5/6ths me (concluding that you weren't going to lynch me today anyway--and it's not like I was a point of discussion before your post) and the remaining paragraph only mentioned a single person (Huck) in passing without coming to any conclusion.

Hey, I tolerate your style of play where you clear scum unequivocally for thin reasons. I will get around to picking out a best scum candidate today, but part of that process is talking about everyone else AND trying to build town consensus. You know that feeling you get when someone you kind of think might be town says something that makes a ton of sense and suddenly the process of elimination becomes easier? Yeah, we need more of that.

[MrBuddyLee]

Well not really, the whole cop-doc thing comes into play here as well. In that a one shot cop is a perfect way to fill the void where a cop causes problems. Also with a vig, a supersaint, a one shot cop, a full cop and a doc in this town its getting a little crowded, no? I see it as a perfectly valid counterclaim.

PS. This is, in and of itself, a valid reason to lynch Porochaz. Discuss.

Not seeing it, unless it was stating the obvious long after the fact? Or are you saying he sounds bitter about all the town power?

[Ether]

Making sense is one of the few things I

don't

count as a town tell, except occasionally for a limited time only. But I'm just nitpicking here.

We've kind of established that I don't think the first of those; I don't think he sounded especially bitter there, either. But I do think that calling two-shot vig/doctor/one-shot cop/supersaint balanced in a game with four scum is the sort of thing a person would only say if it already knew Glork's alignment and was trying to come up with excuses to bus him from that vantage point.

What do you think about Porochaz and HackerHuck?

[Ether]

Porochaz is online and he was prodded about an hour ago.

(Chamber and Crash were prodded much earlier than that, and haven't picked their prods up as far as I know. Dunno where the fuck Chamber is.)

[Porochaz]

On second thoughts, I don't want to give my full answer yet. Sorry--feel free to call me on this later.

The Night 2 logic was totally flawed and useless; it was based on roleblocker DGB stuff and can be found back here. I'm just lampshading that this is the second daybreak in a row that I've done this.

Porochaz, why am I scum?

Well, I could say the push on the two lurkers and the person Ive found most townie in this game or the fact that you were completely and utterly wrong about Glork and went so far as not to just disagree with the opinion but to strongly defend him. That first post of starks keeps coming back to haunt me as well.

Also as Im sure Ive said, if you keep track of my online times and whether Ive picked up my prod (which imo, should either be made knowledgeable to all and not just you or not at all) will make me actively not post.

[Ether]

Leaving you to your own devices also actively makes you not post. Make a List.

The information is available to anyone who asks. I'm just the only one who bothers, and then

I

make it available to all. See how that works?

[Porochaz]

Shanba, please dazzle me with your genius. Which of Porozac or Huck is more likely scum, and why? Bonus points if your answer invokes the words "Glork" "Glorked" or "Glrok".

Sidenote: I'm vaguely amused by the portmanteau of porochaz and prozac.

The thing is, they're both sufficiently close in scumminess that I'm finding it hard to make a distinction. Gun to my head, I'd pick Hackerhuck, I think. Both players have somehow managed to float mostly under the radar in a game where there've been a number of lurkerwagons, and that's particularly worrying in prozac's case because he's been one of the worst offenders - both him and his predecessor were low content. Beyond that? I dunno. His reread is solid-ish. I'm not thrilled with his inhim push, either, particularly the idea that the nurse fakeclaim should be an autolynch. Honestly, I see more townies who declaim than scum. In general town are far more brazen in doing whatever the hell they feel like - with the exception of a few players. But yeah.

Really, you see more people fakeclaim as town than scum? What possible explanation is there to do that? Its terrible play as it's lying to your fellow town (+ if by slim chance we had a nurse we would have outed her as well). It should be an autolynch not just because it's incredibly suspect as a claim in itself, a fakeclaim almost always hurts the town particularly if its just to save your own skin. (see DGB for an instance where it helped) (why am I having to explain this?)

[Porochaz]

Leaving you to your own devices also actively makes you not post. Make a List.

The information is available to anyone who asks. I'm just the only one who bothers, and then

I

make it available to all. See how that works?

Thats fair enough I guess. (first line)

Second line is not. But again, its something to bring up after the game not during.

[Porochaz]

Except I didnt say it in the first place, forget the again.