Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[MrBuddyLee]

I think there's plenty of evidence suggesting a scumteam of Glork-HH-Prozac-CES.

Have you posted any of this evidence? I would like to see your evidence of a Glork-HH scumteam. I would like to see your case on HH.

[Zorblag]

So clearly I haven't posted anything useful by Sunday like I'd planned. Grading is taking longer than it should and I ended up with less time. I will get into the game tomorrow though. This is just to let you know that I haven't forgotten about it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Ether]

Do you really think Glork was trying to bus

...

Come on, you've

got

to have something better than that. Link me to your last scum game and your last two town games? Let's try to be

rational

about this, MBL.

With that note out of the way--while I have read the full game, I barely remember any of it. (For example, I only remember the fact that Glork was attacking you based on Ythill's conspiracy theory from Day 3, right before Glork claimed cop. For what it's worth, I don't think said theory is likely at all.) I probably should go back over the early parts of the game for other reasons: not necessarily for your sake.

I think you brought up a fair point on the CDBwagon the last time you drew it to my attention, and it's still perfectly fair. I dunno. There are active reasons why I dislike Huck and Porochaz, while CDB is just absent. He and Porochaz are both kind of hard to come to updated conclusions on, since they're never in the thread.

When I was trying to lynch Porochaz yesterday, I believed Huck had an innocent result from a confirmed sane cop. That was of course taken away after the lynch, but it took me bit of nighttime to remember Huck's voting patterns. (That's another thing I have totally failed to reread. In this post, I have now made three references to reading long stretches of mafia game that I wasn't around for. It's probably not something you want to hold your breath on.)

So what is the deal with you and town reads? What do you think of Gurgi?

[Porochaz]

Porochaz, what do you think of HackerHuck, CDB, CES, Gurgi and chamber?

H.H. - same opinion as my summary of him in my reread
CDB - Chronic Lurker, same as me, pretty much, except from my point of view, I think that Im being more accessable than him. Looking at the game more as a whole, he seems to have made a load of excuses
CES - I didnt like CES in my reread, I havent really noticed him since. Im going to look through his posts at a later date
Gurgi - Flying very much under the radar
Chamber - Not much of an opinion, need to iso him as well

[Shanba]

I'm here. I have a half-finished post on Huck that's been sitting around for two days, and I'm holding off on finishing it until I take the time to get it right, but I don't think that really helps the situation so I'll just paste it as is and then finish my rereads and revise and extend my remarks later.

Huck's reads have been low quality. He played a bunch of mumbo-jumbo with votecounts like Ythill did, but less insightful. He did make some observations here and there that made it clear he was reading the thread looking for distinctions in scummy/townish play. His D1 reads were very light--Ecto townish, chamber meh, Yos Ythill mildly scummy. For whatever reason, he read me and inHim townish and pushed Mert instead of me or inHim D1--he could have left the lurker as lynchbait the next day and gotten rid of an active townie. Hypothesis: maybe he couldn't afford to be on the Glork-led MBL wagon. Hypothesis: Maybe Glork wanted inHim alive as a pawn. Hypothesis: maybe he was lazy town but had a good town read or two.

First analysis post of D2 fairly shitty. Goes after the idle Stark with vigor, puts Glork solidly in the middle even though he disagrees with all his suspicions (MBL). Also appears to throw a sideways compliment at Glork for pegging the Mert and Fritzler alignments, which seems out of place. Defends Glork on meta from Sly Cooper. Very thin analysis of Glork considering Glork's activity D1--no further mention of Glork's terrible push on me/Ecto? Draws a little too much attention to the fact that no one likes his Ether/starkvote. "The comments on the Mert wagon are also concerning. The scum had to be nervous when that wagon came up so fast." is odd. Cites me as confirmation for his Shanba-Yos beliefs. Hiding behind a townie to justify his wagoning on Shanba? Says he's interested in going after those who were pushing my lynch D1, but doesn't go after Glork/DGB? Uses "must have been some busers" as the basis for an analysis that yields:

ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe

as a possible scumpair. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2687152

Keep an eye on that:

Based on my last post, I'd consider moving to Porochaz, but I'm happier with my vote on Shanba. I'm not in favor of the CDB wagon, since it just looks like a lurker-lynch at this point.

Possible protection of CDB, possible attempt to distance from Porochaz, but ultimately leaves vote on a (townie?)

Weird post on IH/DGB/CTD scumpair

Goaded me on inHim, seems to have been pushing me to vote him, takes a 6 day break, manages to cast suspicion on both the Yos voters and the inHim voters (says im over the top). And dings Yos for not hammering inHim. Only gets on inHim after the bad fakeclaim.

Very claim-focused. Ythill talking vig. Curious about inHim's crumbed role.

Tries to tie me to Ythill when I leave my vote off inHim a while.

I think it's important to get the real support/opposition registered against the InHim lynch so that his flip will have some meaning.

Good point, but note that Glork already registered his opposition, so this would be a safe thing to do if they know inHim is town.

Day three, seems to analyze the Glorkclaim reasonably, definitely pushes for a Poro lynch over a Glork lynch, cites the meaningless argument on behalf of Glork:

I'm also going from the perspective that even if scum, Glork has correctly called two people as innocents. I know I am, and I've felt that MBL is as well.

Unless my logic is bad, I don't think the correctness of Glork's calls has any bearing on the validity of his claim.

Huck mentions me in 23 of 61 posts. And has thought I'm town most of that time. What's up with that? Lil bit stalker-ey. Possible scum management of a dangerous townie.

Ok, that's the post, half-finished. Conclusion on Huck? Not sure. Shanba, you read my Ether summary and told me I was missing the correct conclusion--that she's probably town. Take a stab at this post. Read anything between the lines? My gut instinct is that CDB has played scummier, but that Huck is definitely scummy. I'll need to read Porochaz and Huck again to ascertain relative scumminess of the two. CES, I dunno. The way he thought "Glork-Shanba was a scumpair but pushed Shanba because Glork could either be right or busing" really rubs me the wrong way but he's also done a few townish tone things so I'd probably put Huck as scummier than CES.

I told myself I'd look at who's protected who over the course of the game, and that we'd probably find the scum by finding four people who've all protected each other at one time or another. Not consistently, necessarily, but at pivotal times when they thought a nudge might keep the focus elsewhere. I'll start that by reviewing Glork's posts for protection, and work my way out from there.

The key things I think about Hackerhuck's play are the poor reads. It's one thing to be

wrong

, to make mistakes, it's another to have bad analysis/reasoning for your reads. I think the latter is significantly scummier. Particularly, I'm not seeing that he has any feel for the game in the way I might expect a good townie to - there's no sense of

when something happens

, he turns around and goes "whoa, what was that!" All the analysis he did, more or less, is rereading the thread. I think this is an indication of scumminess - I think town react far more to what's going on than scum do, and it's been setting off my gut for a while."

There is some immediate reacting going on, but when it happens it's fairly blunt. Like with inhim, he just goes "oh your claim is scummy

vote inhim

." I think that's honestly fairly opportunistic, and I think a townier approach to the wagon would involve more "WTF" and less "OMG VOTE INHIM". I'd note there's very little emotion in his play, but that there's also little of the in depth analysis that non-passionate players (the likes of vollkan etc.) tend to thrive on. It could be a playstyle thing, but it feels totally off.

His reads have been the same since pretty much his first post of day 2 - in particular, he's thought me and ether are scummy since his first votecount analysis thingy of that day. MBL, have your reads been the same since then? And yet he's not tunneling on us exactly. Sometimes people get locked into a viewpoint where they go "rah x is scum and damn the consequences I am gonna lynch the bastard" but then they tend to be actively pursuing the guy for as long as the madness lasts. People with weaker, less passionate reads tend to be more likely to let go. It's rare, I think, for someone to think that a person is scummy, get convinced that someone else is scummier and lynch them, and then go back to having the first guy as a mid level suspect, which is roughly how I'd characterise his play.

CDB I'm less worried about, because I expect a degree of lurkiness to his play, and moreover his lurkiness feels less under the radar than hacker's. Hacker, when he's disappeared, has kinda done it in a way that's not noticeable, so he's still regularly posting but at a slow rate. CDB has been almost blatant about it, which makes me less inclined to believe it has scum motivations. Besides, meta tells me CDB is a regular and notorious lurker. I also haven't seen that much in his play that makes me go "yuk", whereas there are definite elements of that in hacker's play.

This is a post made mostly by my gut and theorycrafting. Logical rational shit doesn't come into it much here because a lot of my read on hackerhuck

is

gut and this is my attempt to quantify it.

[ChannelDelibird]

I got prodded, sorry, have had exams today and have another tomorrow, so a little distracted.

[MrBuddyLee]

Do you really think Glork was trying to bus

...

Come on, you've

got

to have something better than that.

Sorry, Ether, but when someone's read is as off the wall as yours is, it means you're either scum or not reading the full game--that's why I asked. It doesn't surprise me that you can't cite an ounce of the D1 story. You replaced in, cookie for you, but if you're going to waste your vote on me, the least you can do is make sure the shoe fits.

The last game I lost as town was Spies 6 on another site, and I lost it by overtrusting two players--clearing them from D2 to D12 based on crafty buswork. So no, I don't like to utterly clear players unless there's a damned good reason. CTD and Shanba are untouchable as far as I'm concerned, and Gurgi has given me enough town vibes that I wouldn't lynch him today and I'd have trouble lynching him tomorrow. CES has given me enough town vibes that I'll ignore things like his one mathematically poor reason for voting Huck (Glork cleared him) and Shanba (because Glork is either right or scum) over Glork--ignore them for now. Your play is so protective of scum right now that I don't see fit to clear you even though a lot of other people seem to want to. You protected the shit out of Glork and right now you almost certainly have scum in your #2-#5 suspicion slots but you're protecting them by leaving your vote on me.

I also lynched a townie or two in that Spies 6 game due to confirmation bias. I convinced myself that they were scum, and then went digging for evidence to support that fact. I found lots. It made it really easy for scum to pile on, because the evidence was so convincing. And a few scum were able to look like geniuses for saying "i dunno, my gut tells me that townie's not scum, MBL." Since then, I've tried not to lock in on people, and more present evidence that I see supporting both sides of the argument and let people decide whether one side makes more sense than the other. I have my opinions, and I have my vote, but I'm not really going to try to drive the town. I am going to ask questions for clarification when town isn't making sense, because it may point to scum. Glork wasn't making sense, I asked him a ton of questions about it, and it turned out he was scum. So I suppose you're right--I need to follow through on the answers more, but calling the questions useless/pointless is dumb. I'm just going to have Shanba in every game to follow up on the answers for me. Guy makes a lot of sense when he puts his mind to it.

As for your self-meta, Ether, which you've brought up my nonresponse to like 12 times:

As for my meta, I could go on for hours.

It's...probably clear to everyone by this point that I'm only effective when I've got a combo running. The longer it's been since my last post, the harder it is for me to make a new one, and I can pretty much only develop useful reads once my nails are securely in place. That just doesn't happen at all when I'm scum; the differences aren't subtle at all, and I'm probably one of the ten easiest people to read on the site if you know what you're doing. (I used to hammer this in constantly, until I realized that I wasn't getting lynched either way and I was sick of talking about myself.) I don't really know how I'd play as replacementscum specifically, or even if I'd still be the person controlling this slot. The last time I was scum, I was constantly putting off posting until late night/early morning, making a post a few paragraphs long and falling right back into my regular patterns without so much as one of the late night marathons you saw from me here on Day 2. I could give links, but really, I'd rather just not.

You're basically saying you don't post much as scum? That's a pretty easy one to turn around if you put your mind to it, but I take your point. You don't have "your nails in" this game, so your reads are scattered. I assume your reads are more confident as scum before you "get a combo going"? I'll bite--please link me to a game of yours as scum and as town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Porochaz and Huck:

"How is your play as scum different from your play in this game?"


Also, Poro, these were your reads from three weeks ago:

Shanba, MBL, CTD, stark, Gurgi town
chamber CDB, Huck null
CES scum

Has anything changed since then? Did the Glork flip or the cases being made today change your opinions of anyone? Have the nulls given you any better reads since then? What's the main reason you're not voting right now?

CDB seems to think there's lots of evidence to tie Glork to two of your nulls/scumreads. Do you agree?

[MrBuddyLee]

Huck, can you please give more fleshed-out thoughts of how you view CDB?

[Patrick]

Votecount

HackerHuck (4) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Shanba
ChannelDelibird (2) -- CrashTextDummie, MrBuddyLee
Porochaz (1) -- HackerHuck
MrBuddyLee (1) -- Ether

Not voting: Porochaz, Zorblag
10 alive, 6 to lynch

[HackerHuck]

"How is your play as scum different from your play in this game?"

I avoided this question when you first asked it, because it's not really an easy one to answer. My goal as scum is to play the same way I do when I'm town, but I'm not the best at assessing whether that's the case. I can point you to my two most recent scum games if it helps more. One just finished and the other is a few months old.

It's Always Sunny...
The Return to Liten

Shanba - I should probably point you to invitational 11, where most of the town in that game would have given me the same assessment that you just did.

Huck, can you please give more fleshed-out thoughts of how you view CDB?

I think he's likely scum. It's a little difficult to be objective since he's spent so much time focused on me, but there are a few things that bug me about him. He doesn't mention Glork until Glork starts to get a little heat from Ythill. At that point, he hedges himself a little by saying that he'll look next at Glork and MBL, but he's not sure in which order. That seems to give him an out in case the attention on Glork dies down. Once the claim comes through, he says that 'instinct' tells him Glork is scum. In half a day, he comes back to place his vote even though he hasn't really read through Glork all the way and the key to his vote is that Glork asked me why I didn't put MBL in my scum group. I also don't understand why he chose not to look at my interactions with Glork, rather relying on his earlier conclusion that I'm scum. I'm also going to fall back on my 'two of these four are scum' conclusion. I'm leaning town on MBL, null on CES, which leaves Porochaz and CDB as my two most likely suspects.
The one thing that makes me a little confused is Glork's vote on UT early day one. No reasoning, it puts him in the seven slot out of a ten person lynch and I don't know if scum would bus on a crap wagon day one.

[Lord Gurgi]

MBL: What point are you making with #2520 regarding your mistake?

If CTD is time-limited, I'd rather hear his opinions of anyone besides me. He said one of his big concerns about me was that I didn't get on Glork as aggressively as I would have in the past for a crap case, so I posted a summary of pretty much exactly how I felt about Glork over that month or so. If it saves him time by clearing up his concerns, great. If not, whatever.

It seemed to me more like you were doing the "See guys, I made a mistake, but I admit it." Dunno, came off as scummy. It seems like something that would be part of your meta, but proactively defending makes me pause.

So if there's someone that is lurking that wants to call me a lurker and hasn't done so you should get on that.

Huck, you think that the scum counterclaimed themselves and hoped there wouldn't be a third cop?

[HackerHuck]

Huck, you think that the scum counterclaimed themselves and hoped there wouldn't be a third cop?

Why do you ask? I think I've been pretty clear that I believed CTD was a one-shot cop ever since his claim, although I didn't believe it to be a true counter-claim at the time.

[Ether]

As for your self-meta, Ether, which you've brought up my nonresponse to like 12 times:

[...]

You're basically saying you don't post much as scum? That's a pretty easy one to turn around if you put your mind to it, but I take your point. You don't have "your nails in" this game, so your reads are scattered. I assume your reads are more confident as scum before you "get a combo going"? I'll bite--please link me to a game of yours as scum and as town.

...

Let's step back for a second and review what I've

actually said

on that topic:

Unlike chamber, MBL, you

did

explicitly ask me to meta myself. And I explicitly told you what an easy read I was. Do you ever even follow up on your questions, MBL? When Shanba--you know, that guy who Crash cleared--gives you the answer you're holding out for, will you care?

Hi, MBL. Who's scum? What have you concluded from all the selfmetas you've gotten from people (especially mine, obv)?

Why are you pretending to suspect me when I'm the investigated innocent of the cop you are confident is town?

PS. Same question to you over Shanba and his selfmeta.

[Context note: MBL had been using Shanba's lack of a response so far to avoid commenting on selfmeta stuff.]

MBL's play just seems to me like a constant stream of asking questions to get out of drawing conclusions, and waiting until as late in the day as possible so it matters less when he absolutely has to.

(I also think that if he were actively trying to stop being paranoid toward me, he'd have pressed me on my selfmeta by now. Like, at all. In general, it seriously bugs me the way he handled that question.)

Here's a secret, MBL. I'm voting you. You're free to think what you want about my alignment (as if you're actually thinking), but if I gave a shit, I'd stop beating around the bush and just reiterate why I'm town. I don't care that you're asking me now; I want to know why you didn't do it weeks ago.

[MrBuddyLee]

I hope you're scum.

[Ether]

Could you articulate why?

You keep calling my reads off the rail, but the only one you seem to actually dispute at all is your own. You've never stated

why

, exactly, you think it's unreasonable to draw the conclusions I did. I really am doing my best to be fair and cooperative and give you a lot of chances and make it

absolutely blazing obvious

what I expect.

Your roleplaying was lovely, but the Spies games are a tough series to read for information. (Incidentally, I know for a fact that Spies 6 wasn't the last game you lost as town. I'm assuming you omitted later games because you didn't get a lot of screen time in Spies 7 or CT3, but let's try to tell the complete truth in the future to prevent any misunderstandings, shall we? Unless you and PJ had a QuickTopic or something, in which case you should totally link me.) I would appreciate some easier examples.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*waits for HackerHuck to die*

[MrBuddyLee]

H.H. - same opinion as my summary of him in my reread
CDB - Chronic Lurker, same as me, pretty much, except from my point of view, I think that Im being more accessable than him. Looking at the game more as a whole, he seems to have made a load of excuses
CES - I didnt like CES in my reread, I havent really noticed him since. Im going to look through his posts at a later date
Gurgi - Flying very much under the radar
Chamber - Not much of an opinion, need to iso him as well

You don't seem to think anyone is scum.

[Ether]

Heh.

[Lord Gurgi]

Disregard my derp, Huck. I read CDB as CTD for some reason. I need more sleep all around.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I thought Poro was supposed to be suspicious of me.

[ChannelDelibird]

Eek, shit, I'd resolved to be more active. Elaboration/clarification on previous posts that I promised will be here tonight.

[Porochaz]

H.H. - same opinion as my summary of him in my reread
CDB - Chronic Lurker, same as me, pretty much, except from my point of view, I think that Im being more accessable than him. Looking at the game more as a whole, he seems to have made a load of excuses
CES - I didnt like CES in my reread, I havent really noticed him since. Im going to look through his posts at a later date
Gurgi - Flying very much under the radar
Chamber - Not much of an opinion, need to iso him as well

You don't seem to think anyone is scum.

I think Ether's scum

[Porochaz]

Having said that, that is a particularly bad post by me. Which shows I haven't really gotten into the game. I would say CDB is getting increasingly scummy with the increasing frequency he posts stuff like 2546 with very little return. The two I need to iso are just that, expect a better opinion of them in due course. Gurgi has never really given me any cause for concern beyond the UtRness.

[Ether]

I should probably note that Porochaz was much more humble toward me the last time he was scum, and his Caffhate is a point in his favor. I can be a scary lady.

I should also note that if he's town, he's a moron.