Well I got around to a partial ISO at least.
Yosarian2 wrote:it sounds like Llamarble already knows Darla is going to flip town.
I don’t think this is a reliable tell. A lot of people have called flips in this game, many about llamarble being as good as caught scum. It comes from confidence, not inside information.
Yosarian2 wrote:Anyone who votes you is scum, huh?
You kinda have a point, at one point or another he did call everyone on his wagon scum except Final Fires (and bobs who he called town by the time bobs voted him).
Yosarian and Nikanor,
Bub Bidderskins,
brokenscraps. But from the perspective of a hypo-llamarble-town he would be trying to find the scum on his wagon, so its not unheard of to focus on two people while being wary of a couple more.
Yosarian2 wrote:I don't think you have. Most of your attacks look like OMGUS to me. I don't see Bub as suspicious at all. I also think your "Yos and Bub are scum together and they're part of an elaborate plan to lynch Darla" theory is raving paranoia at best; it dosn't seem to be based on any actual evidence of anything in the game, it more seems like a wild theory you cobbled together based on nothing to allow you to attack the people who suspect you.
Llamarble jumped to one conclusion with that theory. He didn't say why it was more likely than anything else. It looked like he chose the outcome to fit with his narrative actually. Without that evidence (ie: the difference between calling someone being wagoned town and preparing for their lynch) it does look suspicious coming from him, like when he called Whisky pretty bad in one post and a convenient scumtarget in the next. Man, I hadn't seen it that way before.
Yosarian2 wrote: the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him.
And most of the swings were against the most vocal people on his wagon, the ones pushing it harder. It’s how scum probably would operate in that situation, assuming those votes are there to stay while being nicer to the swing votes. That would possibly require exaggerating tells against the stronger voices while ignoring similar tells against the swing votes.
One could argue that Whisky was sitting on the Darla wagon with weak reasons as much as Bub did, if not more. This might be something here.
I can see Yos town taking the stances he did on day 1 for the most part. I wished he had explained more of the flailing in detail at the time, and even the clarifications felt like generalizations, but I could see that he is depending his llamarble-scum read with his Bub-town read alot too. He thought Bub took an even and genuine stance on the Darla wagon, llamarble disagrees and sees a different conclusion.
Llamarble makes more sense as a lynch to me than Yosarian. There are more questionable motivations on that side. So even though I've been gun ho about a Darla lynch today, I'll help the arms race right now.
unvote;
Vote: llamarble