Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Patrick]

Votecount

No votes.

7 alive, 4 to lynch

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, I read some of your previous play as town and as scum yesterday. Those games don't read anything like this game. You actually made cases in those games, both as town and as scum. In this game, you just pester and nag and try to look good, as opposed to not so much caring how you look while you try to lay out details of cases. Which you did in the other games, except in those you actually listed evidence pro/con about other players and made nuanced cases.

Also, I didn't see obvious evidence of an Ethertown meta or of an Etherscum meta. You played fairly similar on both sides. You sounded competent, unlike in this game.

[Ether]

If you're expressing confusion over what to look for, I strongly doubt that you were actually trying to read me.

You've made sure it's impossible to get anything useful out of you.

Also, this is horseshit. You're a propagandist.

Okay. What's your impression of the exchange on page 102, then?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zzzzzzzzz.

Do we need any more claims or can we get to the lynching stage?

[Porochaz]

Ether due to failing to be right about anything and a toss up between CES and CDB, CDB for mainly the same reasons as me. (Except in my view worse) and CES for the lynch happiness but when I think back, what has he actually done this game?

[MrBuddyLee]

That said Ether is doing a

great

job of making MBL look really scummy.

So what's your reasoning for MBL being scum. Extra points if you use your own analysis!

CTD: I still don't grasp how you can think MBL is scum. Like, even remotely so.

And Gurgi to detail The Saga of What He Thinks of MBL.

Huck, you, and MBL is inching his way down there.

Hi, Gurgi. What the hell are you doing? (I'm also surprised that I'm the one calling you out on this instead of MBL, heh.)

Sigh.

MBL is inching his way down there.

Why, because Ether says so? I don't think my play's changed since D1/D2, so I'm fascinated to find out why you're suddenly finding me scummy.

Ether, take a deep breath, close your eyes, do some yoga, and for a brief moment in time imagine a world in which MBL is NOT scum.

Who are your top two scum candidates in that world?

[MrBuddyLee]

Do we need any more claims or can we get to the lynching stage?

Everyone's claimed. Who do you want lynched and why?

[Zorblag]

So I've been taking a look at how a couple of the early wagons rose and fell this game and I've had mixed results when I take a look at the context. It'd be a bit surprising if the wagon on CrashTextDummie was entirely town in the early game (and given that I know I'm town that just leaves Cogito Ergo Sum or ChannelDelibird as the only two possible scum out of the 7 who were on it around it's peak) but it took place so early in the game and so quickly (despite the couple vote counts that show up) that it loses a lot of information value; I don't think that anyone expected the wagon to go through so there wouldn't be a huge reason for scum to hop on.

The wagon on Untrod Tripod was interesting as well (which was why I asked about it.) If he (ChannelDelibird) is town then scum probably did have a much better chance of pushing that one to a lynch and I sort of expect that there would have been more behind it. Untrod Tripod really wasn't about defending himself and there were a couple pro-town players (Friztler and CrashTextDummie) who were trying to drive it; Glork, for example, shouldn't have had any trouble justifying staying on the wagon if he chose without looking too bad and yet he shied away. On the other hand, if ChannelDelibird is scum, assuming that I think that Cogito Ergo Sum and ChannelDelibird are unlikely to be partners (and at this point I do think that's unlikely) the only one who could have been bussing that was on the wagon for any length of time was Flameaxe (Porochaz) who was there early but wasn't a particularly active poster and didn't have great chances to jump off the wagon. In the end it seems that interest in Ectomancer was the killing force with that one but, there was nothing good enough about Untrod Tripod's play to make me think that scum would have been opposed to using him for a mislynch if he was one.

I was also wondering why it was day three that the Prozac wagon that CrashTextDummie and Shanba were on (with Ythill for a bit) didn't end up going anywhere (as that's another one that scum should have been willing to jump on and run with if Porochaz is town) but much like the early CrashTextDummie wagon there wasn't as much time as for things to happen as I thought there was just looking at the vote counts. We had the crazy claim stuff come up right at the time when that wagon might have started going somewhere so it's probably not one I can get much from.

In more recent play it's pretty unsettling that ChannelDelibird doesn't feel as though he's got more to add right now. We should be in LyLo and he's pretty clearly high on the list of suspects for a number of people. He should be pretty concerned about figuring out who scum are and avoiding being lynched himself if he's town but right now it feels like he's dialing in the plays.

As far as the business with the no lynch yesterday and claims and what not goes, my take for the day yesterday was somewhat similar to Ether's it looks like. There was some chance that Shanba had some sort of information that would be vital to share (though it looks as though I thought it as less likely that there was another power role out there to worry about than she did) and so I had to do some balancing between giving time for Shanba to share anything that he thought was vital and the fact that town really was better off with no communication before the lynch if he didn't have anything important to share. Getting his thoughts on who is scum wasn't a high priority for me as he should already have given the information he wanted us to work with before we got to yesterday and in general if the town isn't going to lynch all that talking does is give the scum more ideas about what the right night kills are.

As far as who we've got left and who should be scum, I think at this point I like ChannelDelibird best as a scum candidate. If I'm wrong about that then Cogito Ergo Sum probably goes up some on my list (though he's been on (and near the start of) so many wagons that I have trouble with that.) Ether still seems to blatant in her being wrong about things to be a strong suspect though that might just be me falling for scum hiding behind the fact that no one thinks scum will openly work towards their goals (I know I'd have a lot of trouble playing that way as scum and I think that most experienced players would feel similarly.) MrBuddyLee doesn't feel as though he'd be a great partner for Glork based on how the game's gone down though his voting record is much closer to what I expect from scum than most (he's been not voting at least as much as just about any player in the game and there's relatively little movement; I think that scum tend to be more consistent with their votes than town because people think that consistency is a town tell (though it was brought up earlier this game that it should be a scum tell and perhaps I'm giving too little credit in this case.)) That leaves Porochaz and Lord Gurgi both of whom seem to largely not have been factors in the game recently. Of the two I was more comfortable with Lord Gurgi's play when I looked over both of them on day four but I'd really like to see more reasoning from Lord Gurgi now for his choices. I couldn't tell day four what he thought of ChannelDelibird but apparently he finds him to be a good lynch for today; I'd like to know why.

It's interesting that ChannelDeilibird and Cogito Ergo Sum both have each other and Porochaz apparently listed as their top suspects. Given that I think that there's a pretty good chance that one of the two of them is scum I'm trying to figure out how likely it is that Porochaz is a bus and how likely it is that he's an inactive town player who's an easy target.

On the whole I think that it's highly unlikely that our scum are all three of the active players (Cogito Erogo Sum, MrBuddyLee and Ether) and I suspect that it must be fairly frustrating for whatever subset of that group is town that the rest of us are doing as little to figure things out as we seem to be doing. I am thinking about the game and looking at it as I've got time but I've not been posting as much as I should. That probably won't change for the better this weekend but I'll see what I can get in tomorrow and then I do have Monday off.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Zorblag, if you're scum, you're the kind of scum I like to play against. Please post more.

[Lord Gurgi]

Hi guys.

Re: MBL. So Ether accuses me of the same thing that MBL does. Except MBL says it's because Ether is scum and Ether says it's something MBL should have called me out on.

So in that exchange I referenced, MBL looked really bad to me. Still didn't see a reason why Huck should be calling him scum. MBL is not as sterling as he once was in my eyes.

Re: CDB. I've always had the same problem with his lynch that it's been primarily a lurker lynch, and I feel like lurker lynches are really easy for anyone to get onto without thinking too hard about it. I still think that about the CDB lynch, but it's a better lynch than Prozac.

CES seems to be more and more the lurker. He is consistent though.

So disregarding how likely someone is scum... I really doubt that Ether and MBL are together, I have a feeling that Troll and MBL are together. I could see CES tied to either CDB or Prozac, but I don't think CDB and Prozac go together. Troll also goes to CES. So I guess Troll, one of CES/MBL and one of CDB/Prozac? Troll (though I really should say chamber as his play makes more sense with this) ties together teams more than anyone else. I still don't like the CES or Prozac lynch too much, and the MBL lynch isn't appealing for lylo. So that's how I get to CDB/Zorblag.

A lot of my opposition to the CES lynch and CDB lynch back in the day was based on the argument not on the actual play though, so I might just be thinking on holdover.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Do we need any more claims or can we get to the lynching stage?

Everyone's claimed. Who do you want lynched and why?

Channel/Prozac. I've already said why.

Vote: Channel

[Lord Gurgi]

And now we have our dilemma, unless you want to attempt to unvote.

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, yeah, I do need to post more, but if I were scum I wouldn't bother posting like I did there (and like I did on Day Four.) I'm not under that much immediate pressure and lurking is something that it's clearly possible to get away with in this game. As scum I'd just ride that to town mistakes if I had a chance to. In this case though I've got a reason to get my thoughts out as my primary concern is catching scum and not simply surviving. Blah, blah, blah, I know but true here none the less.

@Lord Gurgi, how much to you feel as though your attitude about lurkers contributes to scum's ability to lurk in the game? If scum have a free pass from the town to lurk then it's a pretty decent strategy (especially if a couple members of the town do it as well so they've got company to hide with) and not wanting to lynch lurkers because it's too easy for others to join and that lurking is the only thing going against a player is largely a free pass. The great thing about lurking from a scum perspective is exactly that when it's done there's not going to be anything other than the lurking to attack the player for.

I'm also wondering if it's my interactions with MrBuddyLee (or Cogito Ergo Sum for that matter) or chamber's interactions that you think might indicate partnership. I don't recall noticing chamber doing that much interacting with either of them (or many others for that matter) so I'm not sure what it should be about his play that has you leaning that way. I know that I've talked about both and I've been inclined to give them a pass at this point so I could make more sense of it if it was my play you were getting the ideas from (though it'd be a reasonably weak connection in that case I think.) Could you point to anything that's giving you those connection reads offhand?

Re: The vote by Cogito Ergo Sum, it's probably one of the two votes that I'm most interested in starting today off with (the other being ChannelDelibird to Cogito Ergo Scum.) We've got to vote at some point and the pair of them seem particularly like to contain a member of the scum team to me (probably ChannelDelibird.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Delibird, your thoughts?

[ChannelDelibird]

Delibird, your thoughts?

Pretty much same as last page. CES' vote doesn't surprise me nor does it particularly worry me, at this stage I have trouble imagining a situation in which he and Prozac aren't both scum so I don't believe we're about to lose. While I understand the sentiment behind Zorblag's mention of me, I have to ask what he wants from me - I've already said why I think Prozac and CES are likely Glorkbuddies and so I would like for either one of them to be lynched.

To that end, I'm done with waiting on this.

Vote: Porochaz

[Lord Gurgi]

Lurking to me is lack of interest, more so than a strategy. Or even just distractions in life. At any rate, I think that scum are more likely to go after lurkers than be lurkers themselves. It makes life easy if you push hard after lurkers and just a little bit of side stuff. I tend to think that scum are more interested in the game, not less. To an extent, my position is more severe in this game because of the tendencies of the players.

I think the lack of interaction between chamber and MBL is the telling element. He only exceptionally rarely even mentions the man, and as near as I can tell chamber was content to agree with what others say about MBL. I'll not bother with the fact that you recognise that I can already point to your relationship with him because that's not something I want to get into.

Why are two people voting two different people what the shit.

[Zorblag]

@Lord Gurgi, I need to run off and teach just now, but I'll get back to what you've said later today.

@ChannelDelibird, if you think that Cogito Ergo Sum and Porochaz are both scum then why on earth would you vote for the one that's not voting you of the two right now? If you're town that just increases the chance of a loss coming if you're wrong for no apparent gain that I can see.

Also, who in the game do you think is suspicious of you at this time? I think that there are more people that fit that category than there are potential scum and I'd think that if you were town that would lead to more concern about a loss being imminent.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[ChannelDelibird]

@ChannelDelibird, if you think that Cogito Ergo Sum and Porochaz are both scum then why on earth would you vote for the one that's not voting you of the two right now? If you're town that just increases the chance of a loss coming if you're wrong for no apparent gain that I can see.

Also, who in the game do you think is suspicious of you at this time? I think that there are more people that fit that category than there are potential scum and I'd think that if you were town that would lead to more concern about a loss being imminent.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Honestly, part of voting for Prozac over CES was because you said that was a vote you wanted to see happen, and I decided I was going to go all Killing In The Name on you. I'm pretty much equally confident on Prozac and CES both being scum. My general appraisal of the thread seems to suggest that more people are looking to lynch Prozac now than they are CES, hence the other part.

The people-who-are-suspicious-of-me list seems to be pretty much every other player in the game to varying degrees. Of course I'm aware that if that happens, we lose. What I want to do about it is lynch Prozac. I've gone out and found the two players who I think are almost certainly scum and need to get lynched, and I'm trying to answer everything asked of me.

[MrBuddyLee]

random vote phase
UT on Glork
chamber, Porochaz on CDB
CES on Glork
Gurgi, Ether on chamber

D1
Flameaxe, chamber, CES, Glork on CDB

D2/D3
Gurgi-chamber
chamber-CDB
ChannelDelibird (6) -- DrippingGoofball, Glork, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ythill, Ether

post-counterclaim (ignoring this for subsequent analysis--one or more scum HAD to bus Glork, so they abandoned their no-bus strategy here):
CDB, Porochaz, CES, Gurgi, MBL--Glork
Glork--CES
Ether-Porochaz
chamber-Porochaz

D4/5
Ether-MBL
Everyone else was on Huck

D6 (not taking this into account yet in subsequent analyses)
CES-CDB
CDB-Poro

CDB-CES-Poro

CES voted CDB(UT) D1

Glork protected CES from vig

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

CDB-CES-Gurgi

CES voted CDB(UT) D1

Glork protected CES from vig

Gurgi protected CDB

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

CDB-CES-Zorblag

CES voted CDB(UT) D1
chamber voted CDB a lot

Glork protected CES from vig

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

CDB-Poro-Zorblag

chamber voted CDB a lot
chamber pushed Porochaz as a Glork alternative

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

CDB-Poro-Gurgi

Flameaxe was on D1 CDB(UT) wagon

Gurgi protected CDB

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

CDB-Zorblag-Gurgi

Gurgi voted chamber a lot
chamber voted CDB a lot

Gurgi protected CDB

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

CES-Poro-Zorblag

chamber pushed Porochaz as a Glork alternative

Glork protected CES from vig

CES-Poro-Gurgi

*** never voted each other ***

Glork protected CES from vig

CES-Zorblag-Gurgi

Gurgi voted chamber a lot

Glork protected CES from vig

Poro-Zorblag-Gurgi

Gurgi voted chamber a lot
chamber pushed Porochaz as a Glork alternative

CDB-CES-Ether

CES voted CDB(UT) D1

Ether protected Glork

Glork protected CES from vig

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

Ether protected CDB, CDB protected Ether

CDB-Poro-Ether

Flameaxe was on D1 CDB(UT) wagon
Ether pushed Poro as Glork alternative

Ether protected Glork

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

Ether protected CDB, CDB protected Ether

CDB-Gurgi-Ether

*** never voted each other, protected each other (Ether and Gurgi (and Glork) protected CDB) ***

Ether protected Glork

Gurgi protected CDB

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

Ether protected CDB, CDB protected Ether

CDB-Zorblag-Ether

chamber pushed CDB a lot

Ether protected Glork

Glork pushed Shanba over CDB, defended CDB

Ether protected CDB, CDB protected Ether

CES-Poro-Ether

Ether pushed Poro as Glork alternative

Ether protected Glork

Glork protected CES from vig

CES-Gurgi-Ether

*** never voted each other ***

Ether protected Glork

Glork protected CES from vig

CES-Zorblag-Ether

*** never voted each other, Ether cast mild aspersions upon both but never voted ***

Ether protected Glork

Glork protected CES from vig

Poro-Gurgi-Ether

Ether pushed Poro as Glork alternative

Ether protected Glork

Poro-Zorblag-Ether

Ether pushed Poro as Glork alternative

Ether protected Glork

Gurgi-Zorblag-Ether

Gurgi voted chamber a lot

Ether protected Glork

Questions to touch upon:
* Was the D1 UT wagon meaningful?
* Was the D2 CDB-wagon meaningful?
* Was Glork's D2 protection of CES and CDB meaningful?
* Was Ether's protection of Glork meaningful?
* Was the push of Poro over Glork D3 meaningful?

* How much busing has there been?

Possible buses are pretty minimal:
At least one scum bused Glork when he counterclaimed, either Poro+CDB early, CES off and on, or Gurgi late.
Wagons on CDB D1/D2 (note--the same

CES-chamber-Glork-Ether

was on both CDB and Shanba D2--

chamber-CES-Glork

were all on UT(CDB) D1 with

stark(Ether)

locked on Ecto all day)
chamber on CDB forever
Gurgi on chamber forever
Ether on Porochaz inconsistently (says due to Huck investigation)

[Zorblag]

@ChannelDelibird, here's why you should change your vote to Cogito Ergo Sum at this point if you're town:

If you're town and Cogito Ergo Sum is also town then (assuming 3 remaining scum) scum can already win by hammering you right now. Voting for Cogito Ergo Sum adds no new danger to that situation; scum shouldn't care which of the two of you they hammer for the win in this case.

On the other hand, if you're town and Porochaz is town under the same assumptions you've given scum an option to hammer Porochaz for the win.

If you're town and you're right and both of them are scum then your vote does no harm. If you're scum then your vote does no harm. If you're town and you're wrong about either Cogito Ergo Sum or Porochaz then right now scum have the ability to win this game if they coordinate. If, as town, you changed your vote to Cogito Ergo Sum, it would do no harm if you're wrong about Porochaz but right about Cogito Ergo Sum which requires less certainty on your part.

Unless you're absolutely certain that Porochaz is scum (and I don't think that you can have that certainty if you're town at this point) it just doesn't make sense for your vote to be where it is right now; it's adding risk without giving the town any advantage. It has nothing to do with who I'd like to see voting for who when you look at the basic risk/reward involved.

Mind you, from your point of view the same sort of certainty could be obtained by Cogito Ergo Sum changing his vote to Porochaz, but you think he's scum so you shouldn't expect him to want to do that I wouldn't think.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Who do you want lynched and why?

Channel/Prozac. I've already said why.

You have? I just read back through December 17th and couldn't find a hint of a case you've made against either. Please indulge me by emptyquoting your old cases/arguments for those two being scum.

I just read that stretch of your posts again. You never made any kind of case on either or stated any facts in support of your belief that they're scum. Not one.

This time, you're not wagoning. Please make your cases, or point us to the previous cases you claim you've made on those two.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether due to failing to be right about anything

and a toss up between CES and CDB, CDB for mainly the same reasons as me. (Except in my view worse) and CES for the

lynch happiness

but when I think back,

what has he actually done this game?

1) Can you please give me some specific examples of living players (Gurgi, CES, CDB, Zorblag, MBL) who have been right about stuff this game?

2) Can you please compare CES's play to Zorblag's, Ether's and Gurgi's and let me know why you think CES has done less this game than those three?

3) Can you please explain CES's "lynch-happiness" and why, specifically, you have a problem with it?

[MrBuddyLee]

So you thought Gurgi or myself was a power role, and you wanted to make sure Shanba died instead, and fast.

Except you thought I was scum. So you weren't worried about me having a role.

You were so confident that Gurgi was a power role, that you thought it was more important to kill Shanba off fast in hopes that Gurgi was a roled player.

What made you so confident that Gurgi was roled?

Also, you haven't made a case on me. Mush.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

@ChannelDelibird, here's why you should change your vote to Cogito Ergo Sum at this point if you're town:

It may be the best short-term move, but mafia is a long-term game, Zorblag.

Who do you want lynched and why?

Channel/Prozac. I've already said why.

You have? I just read back through December 17th and couldn't find a hint of a case you've made against either. Please indulge me by emptyquoting your old cases/arguments for those two being scum.

I just read that stretch of your posts again. You never made any kind of case on either or stated any facts in support of your belief that they're scum. Not one.

This time, you're not wagoning. Please make your cases, or point us to the previous cases you claim you've made on those two.

Huh. I guess I assumed that had come up at some point previous. The answer is pretty boring anyway: lurking (in the case of Porochaz), gut (mostly Channel on this one), process of elimination, Glrok protecting Channel. I think my suspicion of HH blinded me to Channelscum a bit previously, because Channel proposing HH-Prozac-me looked like a losing proposition.

[MrBuddyLee]

Zorblag:

I don't think Prozac is town.

But other people are much scummier yet.

Re: CDB. I've always had the same problem with his lynch that it's been primarily a lurker lynch, and I feel like lurker lynches are really easy for anyone to get onto without thinking too hard about it. I still think that about the CDB lynch, but

it's a better lynch than Prozac.

I still don't like the CES or Prozac lynch

too much

Please clearly explain your positions on Prozac, CES and CDB.