Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Patrick]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- Cogito Ergo Sum
Porochaz (1) -- ChannelDelibird

Not voting: Porochaz, Ether, MrBuddyLee, Zorblag, Lord Gurgi
7 alive, 4 to lynch.

[Zorblag]

@ChannelDelibird, you said a bit ago that you're not sure what I want from you at this point so let's see if I can clear that up. I can see where you make some points about why Cogito Ergo Sum and Porochaz might be decent partners for Glork (back on Day four in particular) but I'm not particularly seeing any thoughts about people's play since then. You've got both Ether and I as town because of chamber's play for me (your read is right but I'm not sure why it would be overly strong) and because of Stark's play for Ether despite the fact that Ether replaced into the game on Day Two. I'd love to hear what you think is pro-town or scummy about our play after those replacements. Did the way that I went after HackerHuck strike you as reasonable or was I being opportunistic? I'm doing something similar to you now; if you're town then I'm pushing at pro town players twice in a row at endgame. Is that because I'm trying and seeing the wrong things or is it because I'm trying to get mislynches and win the game as scum? Does Ether's defense of Glork and her pushing HackerHuck from off his wagon yesterday mean anything in the long run. Do agree with Lord Gurgi that lurking is just a personality trait and not something scummy and that lurker hunting is closer to being a scum tell? Is MrBuddyLee giving enough in the way of opinions about who is scum or is he just pushing points around to waste time like Ether seems to be implying.

You're in a game of mafia and there are things happening. I'd like to see you making an effort to analyze rather than just sit on the opinions you came up with days ago.

@Lord Gurgi, we're going to disagree about lurkers and I can live with that. This isn't the place to get into it and I'm not actually interested in pushing lurker lynches on their own merits at this time anyhow but I will say that my experience leads me to believe that lurkers are scum more often than average and I don't think that scum are more likely to go lurker hunting than town that I've seen. I will grant that not all lurking is scum strategy; some players simply don't engage in games from time to time. I do think that there's more lurking as strategic scum play that happens than you're giving credit for and I think that the attitude you've got towards lurkers make it more likely to happen. So be it. I don't think that stance is an alignment tell for you and so I'll drop it at this point.

Do you think that chamber ignored MrBuddyLee more than most other players offhand? If there were instances of dead town players who eh talked about as little would that have any effect on your thoughts on the matter? I don't know if there are or not; I didn't read chamber's play closely but I wonder how rare the phenomena you're describing was in this game.

@Cogito Ergo Sum, mafia is a long term game, yes. And this one's been going on for a while. Now that we're in LyLo we need to get everything right from here on out. That means that this is exactly the wrong time to be making moves that increase our chances of handing scum the chance to make a mislynch. Would you object to ChannelDelibird voting for you at this time? Is there a long term benefit that I'm not seeing for having his vote on another player right now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

@Cogito Ergo Sum, mafia is a long term game, yes. And this one's been going on for a while. Now that we're in LyLo we need to get everything right from here on out. That means that this is exactly the wrong time to be making moves that increase our chances of handing scum the chance to make a mislynch. Would you object to ChannelDelibird voting for you at this time? Is there a long term benefit that I'm not seeing for having his vote on another player right now?

Well, obviously I don't care who he votes for since him being town would mean that the quicklynch is possible, but from a hypothetical Channeltown perspective, I would note that 1) Porochaz is a more realistic lynch to push today and 2) odds are exceedingly slim that the town will pull off a win if Porochaz is town i.e. the scenarios in which that vote loses the town the game feature negligible odds of a town victory.

[Zorblag]

@Cogito Ergo Sum, if you leave your vote on ChannelDelibird long enough either town will lose due to a scum quicklynch (and I support your vote because of all the pairs of players I think that's least likely to happen with the two of you cross voting) or we'll be able to say with confidence that one of the two of you is scum. Adding a third party to the mix muddies things a bit for extra risk. Long term it might be true that Porochaz is almost certainly going to get lynched but once you placed your vote (assuming you're committed to it) you should largely have taken him off the table for today.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Lord Gurgi, so out of curiosity, what's changed between Post 1044 where we got:

... Why would I be making scumpairs before we have any known scum? It's too easy to draw connections between any two players since everything is either distancing or buddying if you want it to be. So I don't really care too much what your relation is to each other till one of you is 6 feet under. Why do you ask this? Do you feel it's ridiculous to have you on the same team so one or the other only must be scum?

And Post 2709 were we got:

So disregarding how likely someone is scum... I really doubt that Ether and MBL are together, I have a feeling that Troll and MBL are together. I could see CES tied to either CDB or Prozac, but I don't think CDB and Prozac go together. Troll also goes to CES. So I guess Troll, one of CES/MBL and one of CDB/Prozac? Troll (though I really should say chamber as his play makes more sense with this) ties together teams more than anyone else. I still don't like the CES or Prozac lynch too much, and the MBL lynch isn't appealing for lylo. So that's how I get to CDB/Zorblag.

Is there any use of the Glork flip in the last one? If not then I'm not sure why you'd be using potential connections here to come up with a second choice given your apparent stance back on day two. What am I missing?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmmm, reading through day two again (with focus on the ChannelDelibird wagon) it's interesting that Glork was on the wagon for so long when he clearly didn't really want to be based on his statements. If ChannelDelibird is scum and there was bussing other than Glork's on that wagon it was early and fairly consistent but it would have been by Cogito Ergo Sum or Ether (the rest of you can think chamber if you like) none of whom were ever pushing it. Of the other players still left (and hence our other potential scum) we have both Porochaz and Lord Gurgi saying that they don't like the wagon and MrBuddyLee being somewhat difficult to tell opinions about as far as I can tell.

No matter what ChannelDelibird's alignment was there was not a strong push by scum to get the wagon to lynch stage there. That was essentially true day one with the Untrod Tripod wagon as well. If ChannelDelibird is town then scum were being exceptionally passive about his player spot when they had every chance to make something of town's desire to lynch him. I'm not sure what that motivation should be.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And because quadruple posting is the greatest thing ever, here's a warning that I'm largely V/LA for the weekend. I'll be back by Monday and I'll try to check in the meantime but no promises.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Zorblag, check out the action between DGB and Glork on day two. Glork was defending CDB a bit while going after Shanba. DGB attacked Glork for protecting CDB. Glork briefly went after CDB halfheartedly and made excuses to switch back to Shanba. Glork pushed vigs of Shanba and Yos over a CDB or CES vig when DGB asked him.

The idea of being tied to CDB seemed to freak Glork out, and he seemed to fear CDB getting lynched/vigged and himself looking bad by association. I am not certain about that.

I'm not sure I see the motivation for Glork to protect a townie there, unless it's a great headfake. Kind of fits into the whole "town went after 4 townies D1, so let's not bus each other D2" mentality.

Let me know what you think.

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, I'll take a look at that in particular next time I've got a chance. While you're here and before I leave though, do you mind that ChannelDelibird is voting for Porochaz while Cogito Ergo Sum is voting for him?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

If CDB's town, it's game over unless both Poro and CES are scum, right? But after the way CDB quickvoted Porochaz without worrying about the implications, plus all other considerations D1/D2 especially, his township's seriously in question.

Let's look at what the dead have to say:

CrashTextDummie wanted CDB lynched every.single.day.

Ythill was incorrect about HH/MBL but thought the last two were Prozac and CDB/chamber

Yos was null on CDB

Huck said 2 out of (CDB,CES,Poro) are scum and listed CDB as third scummiest player

DGB was on fire about CES, Glork and CDB and was killed for threatening to vig them

:

Also, I'd like to see some rich, dark, chocolatey scum hunting from Glork. He's scoring high on the scumputer, I expect more from him.

UT/CDB player slot is nearly confirmed scum by the shameless lurking and wagoning, at this point. Post #858 is seven different kinds of bad.

I'm so enamored with InHim, that I'm willing to jump the gun and sun the scumputer with him pegged as town.

SCUMPUTER 2.1

140 Glork

133 CES

115 chamber

93 UT/CDB

78 Flameaxe/Poro

SCUMPUTER 2.1.1

Just for fun, this one includes HH & CTD as townies.

193 CES
150 Glork
130 chamber
110 UT/CDB
100 Flameaxe/Poro

Also, I have a town read on chamber, despite his high scumputer ranking. He's super in-our-faces and constantly pushing the envelope and needling me, I may be wrong, but I expect scum to react more like CES.

DGB's analysis is tl;dr for me.

Cliff Notes:

You're scum and CES is your buddy.

@ Glork

Are you always

THIS MUCH

of a bandwagon enthusiast?

After I take care of CES (the time for players to register their protests is NOW), you're next down the scumputer list.

I might actually have to check out some old games of yours.

Don't give me that stagnation bizniss, Glorkster. You say we should waste an investigation him????

WUT

!!! HAVE YOU LOST YOUR MIND??? Waste an investigation on a useless lurker??? Why not a

VIG SHOT

?????????????????? An

investigation

???????? Instead of a vig shot??????? Are you drunk? High? Passed out? Are you hoping some idiot player is going to investigate CDB who has contributed nothing while maybe I also vig him???????????? Are you CDB's buddy???
</blink>

If CDB fails to show up with the necessary fakeclaim, he'll be considered "given up scum" and will be lynched without further ceremony or gnashing of teeth. If you're sentimental, look away.

-OR-

If for some reason we're not lynching CDB...

We're lynching

Glork

.

ONE OF THESE TWO IS SCUM. MAYBE BOTH. We lynch one, I vig the other.

Which reminds me: DGBEEEE. What do you make of flameaxe/prozac?

I wish I had a nuclear warhead.

CES hasn't done anything significant in a while, he's lurking in plain sight.

He should speak out now, he might not be here tomorrow morning.

Oh, are you officially claiming vig now? I thought you were still just messing around.

That would be one epic messing around, drawing the scum roleblock (if available) and the NK, while letting the real vig do his work unimpeded! I can just imagine the dismay in the QT, "

oh krap, DGB was just a plain old vanilla townie messing with us! Dammit!!! How come the real vig shot one of us in the meantime! How did DGB figure out the real vig would

know

that she's messing around???

"

I'm probably one of the few people that could pull a gambit like that off, because everyone knows I love a good gambit, and the real vig would know that, too.

This being said, I knew that when I chose to shoot Fritzler, I was totally outing myself.

I've read up to page 51. 1184 was mucho convincing.

Unvote, vote: Yos

You realize that you die tonight, no matter what?

Re:

CES

Textbook: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=950

Note that in this game, CES didn't receive a single vote (certainly not one that I noticed).

He was scum.

No one ever voted him.

So, everyone, please consider this before you declare CES to be town.

Ask yourself, is it the lack of opinions that is "townie," or the shameless bandwagoning on successful wagons?

Also, in case there is a quicklynch, CES is scum. Please remember that and kill him good and dead.

CES

CES is scum

dammit

unvote

Let's get everyone fully on the record here.

I want a CES lynch. When he flips scum, you will all adore me.

I tend to think all 3 are town too.

You should know, thanks for the info, we should lynch you now.

CDB is still scum, too.

CES has made NO EFFORT to convince ME that he's town.

That's because him & his team of mafia henchmen can NK me, or roleblock me.

He's un-phased.

Can we kill him? I'd really like to see him lynch, so I can taste triumph.

Am I intrigued by the prospect of a Glork lynch. Count me in as officially interested.

/salute DGB

[Lord Gurgi]

Hi.

MBL: I do not think that Prozac is town. Because other people are scummier. I do not like Prozac lynch. These two statements are not contradictory. He's at roughly neuter right now. I don't see what you're trying to get at here.

Troll: I do think that since MBL has been so prominent and so not-dead, that chamber really should have mentioned him at least a little. With regards to the scumteam things, I don't think I can reasonably refuse scumteams at presumably-lylo. Even if it is bad to do, we're looking for roughly half the players now so it's more reasonable. I'm not sure why I didn't use Glork's alignment, actually. Who was the one that was constantly worrying about a Glork-MBL scumteam?

I really dislike the quoth the dead thing MBL has going on here. There's no reason why the dead should be right, and they should probably be less right. Most of those dead were killed by the town, too. What are you trying to accomplish here except get voices to agree with you?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not sure why I didn't use Glork's alignment, actually. Who was the one that was constantly worrying about a Glork-MBL scumteam?

Ether suspects/suspected Glork-MBL. Have you really not gone over Glork's D1 play to see if Glork-MBL even makes sense as a scumpair? He made a clear attempt to get me lynched/vigged D1, and laid the groundwork for a 1-2 punch if/when Ecto came up town.

I really dislike the quoth the dead thing MBL has going on here. There's no reason why the dead should be right, and they should probably be less right. Most of those dead were killed by the town, too. What are you trying to accomplish here except get voices to agree with you?

1) There's no reason why the dead's individual observations and gut should be any less valid.. they just had less information to work with. Picking out the best evidence brought up by dead townies is a solid way to help narrow down who the scum might be. Shanba had a solid town read on Ether.. are we supposed to ignore that since he's dead and lynched HackerHuck? Ythill said "CTD, Shanba, Ether and Gurgi are town, sheep them" or something like that. It's worth following his logic to see if he made points that can help us.

2) DGB was fairly obviously killed because she was right. DGB had at least 2 scum in the top 5 of her scumputer. If neither you nor Ether are scum, DGB had

ALL FOUR SCUM

in her scumputer top 5. It's stunning that you'd say "don't look closer at why DGB thought these people were scum".

[Lord Gurgi]

MBL, if we all guess our scumpicks that often, we're bound to hit things.

It seems strange that you're arguing that a guy with a meta for bussing was trying to lynch you earnestly. Getting ScuMBL lynched would make a lot of people less likely to suspect him, since most people were assuming that we'd be screwed anyway if Glork and MBL were together.

The problem with citing the dead is that they can't disagree anymore, or change their opinions in light of new information. This guy who died and is town agreed with me, so we must be right. Townies (sadly) are not in their nature more likely to be correct. If you don't believe that new information helps improve your chances of being right, I don't know what to say. If you do, then you should agree that the dead are fundamentally less likely to be right than the living. I could understand if you had gone with DGB's arguments primarily, but you decided to wide-net this one. I don't like it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Can we lynch Channel now?

[MrBuddyLee]

The problem with citing the dead is that they can't disagree anymore, or change their opinions in light of new information. This guy who died and is town agreed with me, so we must be right. Townies (sadly) are not in their nature more likely to be correct. If you don't believe that new information helps improve your chances of being right, I don't know what to say. If you do, then you should agree that the dead are fundamentally less likely to be right than the living. I could understand if you had gone with DGB's arguments primarily, but you decided to wide-net this one. I don't like it.

Let's look at what the dead have to say:

CrashTextDummie wanted CDB lynched every.single.day.

Ythill was incorrect about HH/MBL but thought the last two were Prozac and CDB/chamber

Yos was null on CDB

Huck said 2 out of (CDB,CES,Poro) are scum and listed CDB as third scummiest player

DGB was on fire about CES, Glork and CDB and was killed for threatening to vig them

Are you seriously telling me CTD and Huck would have significantly different opinions now than they had when they died? Or Shanba?

By the way, Shanba suspected Prozac most and was meh on CDB. I really wanted to see if his opinion shifted after the Huck lynch, but you guys botched it. Here were his last thoughts:

I'm actually somewhat disturbed by my company on the (Huck)wagon, if I'm totally honest. The three people I trust most are not on the wagon. As such I'm seriously considering swapping over to prozac...

HackerHuck (5) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Shanba, Zorblag
ChannelDelibird (2) -- CrashTextDummie, MrBuddyLee
Porochaz (1) -- HackerHuck
MrBuddyLee (1) -- Ether

Not voting: Porochaz

Pretty sure that means Shanba trusted me, CTD and Ether most. I'm pretty sure his suspicions were ordered Poro->CES->CDB/chamber->Gurgi. His vote should count for something, to be honest, especially considering at least two scum voted to quick-lynch so Shanba'd be silenced for good.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether's in prod range. I look forward to her answering my questions--I particularly want to hear why she was so sure Gurgi was roled that she had to kill Shanba before he could speak. I also want to see her case on me--whatever amazing case it is that she switched off "obvscum" Porochaz and wasn't voting Huck for most of the day even though she'd "suspected" him for days.

[MrBuddyLee]

Porochaz:

"How is your play as scum different from your play in this game?"

[Porochaz]

I will post examples tomorrow but generally I feel Im more active as scum than town, I also play less aggressively when scum.

[Porochaz]

I hate self meta's by the way, once you explain your own meta, it can easily be faked but you know that already.

Anyway, town game, lurked a bit, I should point out, I was town right up until endgame as it was a cult game http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14357
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=14753 - town invitational game where I lurked greatly
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=14234 - my only scum game since the move (as far as I can see) from what I remember I was more active and spent more time on posts.

[MrBuddyLee]

* CES claimed vanilla
* Gurgi did not hint at a role
* Ether wanted Shanba NKed before he had a chance to post that he might be vanilla, because she thought there was a town role still out
* Ether obviously thought CES or Gurgi had a role

Possible conclusions:
1) There was some post by Gurgi that made Ether positive he had a role
2) CES is scum with a role, and Ether screwed up by telling us she's waiting for him to give results today

Ether, you're playing to your scum meta. You've been prodded. Please reply.

[Lord Gurgi]

FWIW: Ether lurking has nothing to do with her alignment.

[Lord Gurgi]

Uh... hi?

[Porochaz]

Hi, kinda waiting for Ether to say something. If she doesn't by this evening I will try and get a post out later on.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm just waiting for you guys to lynch Channel.

[ChannelDelibird]

Post to acknowledge prod, don't have time now but will be back after class this evening.