Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Confess!

[Zorblag]

Monday turned out not to be a good day for mafia (but rather a day for Troll to take care of being Troll with some time off of everything.)

I'll do some posting this afternoon PST (I need to look at the interactions MrBuddyLee was talking about between DrippingGoofball and Glork in particular and there are other things I'm probably forgetting) but right quick for now here are some of my thoughts.

The lack of participation over the weekend makes it harder to draw conclusions about scum based on whether or not a quick hammer has happened. In particular it's inconvenient that Ether hasn't posted at all since the votes have been cast. If I were scum at this point my reaction would depend on whether or not a misvote had already been cast. If it had then I'd be hanging back, not posting much but watching the game and probably using some sort of pre-arranged timing mechanisms with my scum buddies to try to get a hammer in. If no misvotes have been cast then I'd be holding back and waiting to see if town would make a mistake without my help; it's much better as scum if I can simply let the mistakes happen than it is when I have to try to force them. I suspect that we're in the second case at this point and that gets strengthened the longer we sit at this game state.

@Lord Gurgi, in the end you can of course make what you'd like to of how much chamber said about MrBuddyLee while he was here. It seem to me that his game was to talk about either people he suspected or people he thought were town who were under attack. Apparently he didn't suspect MrBuddyLee (and MrBuddyLee hasn't been under serious attack; actually the one time I can recall chamber mentioning MrBuddyLee it was to note that no one seemed to have him as a top suspect.) As far as MrBuddyLee being alive as part of the reason, we've apparently had very predictable scum kills this game; Elmo was a claimed doc, DrippingGoofball was a claimed Vig, Ythill was a claimed Vig, CrashTextDummie was a claimed cop, Shanba was cleared by cop investigation. The mafia haven't really deviated from the standard kills at all this game; all of the rest of us being alive can apparently be attributed primarily to not being suspicious enough to lynch. That should start changing with tonights kill but for now MrBuddyLee (or anyone else still in the game) being alive isn't the least bit surprising.

I'm also a bit worried that you're sitting back and going with the suspicions that you came up with earlier in the game rather than trying to use the new information that we're getting as the game proceeds. Perhaps I'm getting the wrong impression from what you're writing and it's also true that you're not the only one I'm worried is doing that. In any case, if you're town I want to avoid the situation that came up at the end of tofu mafia where Elmo (as town) hadn't particularly been paying attention to the last couple days of the game and made a final decision that didn't take them into account at all (he might have made the same game losing decision in any case but I'd have been much happier if he'd have made it given all the information there was to work with.) At this point you in particular seem to be looking for reasons to go with the suspicions that you had earlier (chamber made it onto your scum list for whatever reason fairly early and the connection thing (without looking at glork) seems like a reason to keep him there rather than an attempt to find scum based on your earlier stated views on connections.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Zorblag,

assuming that I think that Cogito Ergo Sum and ChannelDelibird are unlikely to be partners (and at this point I do think that's unlikely)

Why is this scumpair unlikely?

[Porochaz]

Did she pick up her first prod?

[Patrick]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- Cogito Ergo Sum
Porochaz (1) -- ChannelDelibird

Not voting: Porochaz, Ether, MrBuddyLee, Zorblag, Lord Gurgi
7 alive, 4 to lynch.

Everyone in range got prodded. I'll prod Ether again on AIM tonight, trying to avoid replacing anyone at this point for hopefully obvious reasons.

[Patrick]

Porochaz: I'm pretty sure your post wasn't there before I posted the votecount, but the forum went down so maybe it's something related to that. Ether did pick up her first prod.

[Porochaz]

Hmm yeah it definitely came after your vote count... weird.

[Ether]

If Incognito is reading this, there's something I'd like him to say to my face.

For the rest of you, I'm not dead. I'm not really recovered, either, but let's see.

[Porochaz]

Incog isnt in this game, Ether.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He could still be reading it.

[Lord Gurgi]

Rex is everywhere.

[MrBuddyLee]

If Flameaxe(Porochaz) is town, this was the first person to spot Glork as possible scum. If Flameaxe is scum, this http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p2645950 was a pretty sloppy post clearing a bunch of townies (

Yos

,

Mert

,

Shanba

,

Gurgi

,

MBL

,

Ecto

,

stark

) and pointing to CES, UT(CDB), HackerHuck and his scumpartner Glork as scum.

7) Glork
-I like some parts, indifferent about others here. His catchup post seems fine on paper, but I'm getting a

weird gut

read about it. Can't really explain it. I'm going to try to work on finding words to explain it. I'm liking his posts since then without any

weird gut

feelings.
-Leaning town

'weird gut'

read?

So what was weird about Glork's catchup post?

Goddamn, there are way

too many people in this game who I would blindly wagon with D1

. What happens if

Yos

,

CES

, and

Fritz

all tell me to vote for different people? Does the world explode?

Mert is protown

. First use of "to be honest" is p much always protown.

Put THAT in your secret tell pipe and smoke it.



I will freely admit, I'm having a hard time generating reads right now, probably due to the nature of the playerlist. I'd say something sappy and mostly full of shit like "I just love you all too much to lynch," but that's entirely untrue. I like lynching you motherfuckers.


The biggest thing I'm getting is that

I don't like Flameaxe

's "I agree with CTD" post. I think CTD is stretching a little bit, and flat agreement makes me groan.
That, and I'm seeing nothing but

Vintage Protown Fritzler

. Dude needs doc protected like every night from here until eternity. Oh, and

inHim looks protown

, too. I like the "we have good info if CTD is scum" post.

@Flameaxe

: Eh, I think you have good points against UT as UT continued to poorly defend himself. I'm still not sold on your initial attack, though, and

feel you could be scum that lucked out with poor responses

, because

I think UT is town that got frustrated when he was misnterpreted

.
---
With

Ecto

's line of reasoning, I can follow him and can see the merits from his perspective.

Ythill

's attack on him is

pro-town in execution and probably even on principle

, but he's not stepping into Ecto's gameview; Ecto's "Wiki 101" criticism was harsh, but not necessarily unfounded.

I am not in favor of a starkwagon

.

Fritzler

is returning to good form. :coo:

:glorksignal:

GODDAMN, YOU ARE ONE PROTOWN SONOFABEEYTOCH.

I like Ythill's posting

... namely, his town/null/scum categorization. I don't agree with all of it, but I like that he put it out there. I don't like his interaction with CTD, though, as I also have been fine with

CTD

's level of scumhunting.

I'm not feeling the UT wagon

.

I would like to see more pressure on Ecto, especially in light of MBL's post

(*cringe*).

Unvote, Vote: Ecto

Aaaaand

UT

's vote on

Fritzler

is :badposting:. OMGUS to the max.
EDIT: And

Fritz

pointed this out.
EDITEDIT: And

inHim

pointed out

Fritz

's pointing this out.


All things considered, I'm

on the fence re: UT

.
I like

MBL

's questioning of Ecto.

Fritz

,

CES

, and

inHim

are looking solidly protown.

Vote stays on

Ecto

for now, but I would probably be willing to coax a claim out of

UT

.

Summary:
* Glork liked that inHim was cutting UT(CDB slack) and attacking Flameaxe (but Glork also said UT's Fritz vote was terrible)
* Glork encouraged MBL to go after Ecto (but lauded inHim's defense of Ecto)
* Glork gave townie points to

Yos, inHim, Mert(jokingly), Fritzler, Ythill, CTD, MBL

,

CES

Why did Glork vote Ecto despite finding Flameaxe's post the worst thing he'd seen?
Did Glork really clear 8 townies in one post, or is CES scum?
What did Flameaxe find "weird gut"?

Subsequent comments from Glork:

As far as not feeling the UT wagon, it is extremely lazy. A bit more lazy than I'd expect from this group of players, once we got out of the random bullshit stage. I have some minor misgivings about UT's behavior since garnering some pressure (in particular, I think CTD's "UT has clammed up" comment is right on the money), but it's not enough to convince me that he needs dead. If a UT lynch goes through and he flips town, I'd expect the wagon to be chock full of scums -- most likely two in the {Flameaxe, chamber, Mert} block, with a possible token pile-on at the end of the wagon.

and this was Glork's next comment on Flameaxe/Porochaz,

Porochaz is a better kill than CES. CES is pretty easy to figure out once you make him post (and I'm still leaning slightly protown on him anyway).

Yos is guaranteed scum. Porochaz is only decently likely to be scum.

CDB and Porochaz are still decent scum candidates

Ugh, I don't really see what Flameaxe saw as "weird gut" about Glork. Glork didn't talk about possible scumpartners Ether, Gurgi or chamber at all, so it's unlikely Flameaxe was referring to the absence of two of them from the post. Glork defended CES as obvTown, put CDB(UT) in his middle category but shirked the wagon, and listed Flameaxe as most sketchy but didn't vote him, and didn't comment on him for another month. If Flameaxe is Glork's scumpartner, the best I can come up with is that Flameaxe was commenting on Glork's approach towards scumpartner UT as weird? Weird gut could also come from seeing scumpartner CES in the obvTown category. Or it could be sloppy, overreactive distancing in response to Glork's weak Flameaxe attack.

Or, Flameaxe was town and just has a really good gut and likely nailed 2-3 scum in his initial read ("CES, UT(CDB), HackerHuck and his scumpartner Glork").

I'm tempted to conclude his gut's not THAT good, and that he's probably scum with Glork and got a little freaked at the weak bus and overreacted, calling out Glork as a town "weird gut" read. (That was Flameaxe's only invocation of "gut" in this game besides an "odd vibes" about inHim.)

[ChannelDelibird]

Post to acknowledge prod, don't have time now but will be back after class this evening.

Balls.

Still working on this (kind of busy tonight but will do my best to have something to say before I go to bed)

[Ether]

That said Ether is doing a

great

job of making MBL look really scummy.

So what's your reasoning for MBL being scum. Extra points if you use your own analysis!

CTD: I still don't grasp how you can think MBL is scum. Like, even remotely so.

And Gurgi to detail The Saga of What He Thinks of MBL.

Huck, you, and MBL is inching his way down there.

Hi, Gurgi. What the hell are you doing?

Re: MBL. So Ether accuses me of the same thing that MBL does. Except MBL says it's because Ether is scum and Ether says it's something MBL should have called me out on.

Hey, Gurgi. Have you come up with a real answer since my absense?

I think Zorblag's point on CDB's Chazvote is spot on; CDB is probably scum. I'm still in a position where I...kind of think Porochaz is town and that he might possibly have done something (and at the same time avoided suspecting me on a basis that is not only stupid but

factually wrong

) as scum.

I should probably pinpoint why I think stuff. MBL harassing me about it makes me want to do it less, which is kind of funny, now, isn't it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Everyone not voting Channel sucks.

[Ether]

Half a week. (Heh...)

[Porochaz]

Im LA until Monday.

[MrBuddyLee]

CDB said two posts were tl;dr for him and kept him from reading on. Let's take a look:

DGB's analysis is tl;dr for me. tl;dr is also the main reason why I keep putting off serious rereads.

I got stuck at page 41 when CTD posted a huge tl;dr.

Wading back in now.

Here's the relevant part of CTD's "tl;dr":

I'm getting annoyed with people who treat suspicion of CDB as just "lurkerhunting" (Lord Gurgi, I'm looking at you). Reasons to suspect CDB:

UT reacted badly to getting accused (this is the whole joke/no joke business, which in the context of his posts is

not

null or even town), tried to substantiate his bandwagon vote on me by retroactively outfitting it with terrible reasoning, did

zero

scumhunting, clammed up ultra-tightly once he came under pressure, came back with a weak, lazy vote and ultimately selectively replaced out of the game. His predecessor CDB has contributed a pretty insubstantial initial analysis and his vote to the Mert-wagon and

nothing else

in the 2+ weeks he's been here. Scumhunting effort = zero. Even if for some reason you don't find any of this the least bit suspicious, I can't believe you are completely okay with letting him slide like this. Lord knows most wagons that have been actively pursued in this game so far have been worse than your typical lurker wagon.

And here are snippets of DGB's 's "tl;dr":

SCUMPUTER 2.1.1

193 CES
150 Glork
130 chamber
110 UT/CDB
100 Flameaxe/Poro

NOTE: Finally, Fabio found his cojones. Given that Glork looked opportunistic before, and CES already pinged, I'm disappointed with your InHim vote.

NOTE: Glork & CES are pining again. The Inhim vote is even more worrisome.

NOTE: Here, Glork pings your scumdar, so ONCE AGAIN your InHim vote is a bee in my bonnet.

NOTE: ONCE AGAIN, CES pings the scumdar. You're picking up CES all over the place. And Glork. On both of these points, we agree. I'm worried about you, Ythill. I need some intense re-assuring to peg you as town. Wanna revise your analysis perhaps? Were you tired when you made it?[/b]

Also, I'd like to see some rich, dark, chocolatey scum hunting from Glork. He's scoring high on the scumputer, I expect more from him.

UT/CDB player slot is nearly confirmed scum by the shameless lurking and wagoning, at this point. Post #858 is seven different kinds of bad.

Glorky!

We need to prioritize.
We've got CES-scum to kill.
Also, Mr. UT/CDB, the token lurkerscum.
And Shanba has got to die.

Glork has 7 days to deliver that rich, dark, chocolatey analysis. If he fails, he will need to die.
But CES needs to die real bad.

@CDB

I see you active elsewhere on the site, get your ass in here.

Being scum leaves him speechless.

Finally, DGB comments on CDB's "tl;dr" excuses:

DGB's analysis is tl;dr for me.

Cliff Notes:

You're scum and CES is your buddy.

Also relevant in that stretch:

Why aren't more people voting CDB? This is like textbook CDB scum.

CES defying DGB's bandwagon analysis feels like insulted scum.

Thank you! I think so, too.

I don't see the Shanba lynch. CES lynch seems like a meta lynch. I don't see him as less likely to do what he has as town.

(Huck's suspect list is: stark, chamber, Glork, Shanba, Gurgi)

@CDB

I see you active elsewhere on the site, get your ass in here.

Read page 10, HH, stark is just town. There's a particular way he acts when he's scum in terms of his niceness, but this is town niceness. I don't really have a terribly good way to explain it. It's not the authenticity, he's just a nice guy, but there's something about the way that he's congenial about scumhunting that is town.

I'll give you the cliffnotes:
CDB is still scum.
Porochaz's entry into the game was underwhelming, but the case against him is probably not strong enough to maintain my vote.
Glork remains highly suspect.
Disliked chamber's refusal to hammer Mert.

VOTE: CES seems appropriate.

(chamber posts that 5 people have suspected inHim today, 5 CDB, 4.5 Yos, 4 Shanba, 3 CES, 2.5 Glork, etc. and recommends that people wagon.)

mafia = cdb, yos, inhim, shanba

I'm intrigued by Glork's Shanbavote even though I don't want to sheep on him on principle because he's a bum.

Porochaz (1) -- CrashTextDummie
Yosarian2 (2) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, Shanba
inHimshallibe (3) -- Lord Gurgi, chamber, ChannelDelibird
chamber (1) -- Yosarian2
Cogito Ergo Sum (2) -- DrippingGoofball, Ythill
Ythill (1) -- Porochaz
Shanba (1) -- Glork
Ether (1) -- HackerHuck

Ether!!
Shanba is definitely scum. You should definitely sheep me. He definitely needs lynched today.
Don't think just gogogo!

vote: Shanba

Unvote, vote: Shanba

The Shanba wagon is based exclusively on him saying he didn't find value in Mertwagon analysis. That's... not much to lynch Shabs.

MBL is town and was the only one to point out anything I found even remotely convincing Re: Ectowagon. He's said a lot of very protown things and not much that's scummy in any real capacity. Generally he will say things that are just sensible and does not single-mindedly push his own agenda. Strikes me that he actually reconsiders his lynch choices fairly regularly. Also his avatar is nice.

CTD hasn't done that much since having a crap wagon on him earlier in the day. He's not done anything exceptionally town, mind you. But he's better than Glork and CES who aren't scum either. I just don't think he's scum because of how the wagon folded out.

Vote:Shanba

I forgot to

unvote: Ether

and

vote: Shanba

in my last post.

I don't think Shanba's stance on the Mertwagon is suspicious, though I'd have to actually read the damn thing to know if I agreed. (I am still voting him.)

Tentative

unvote

.
That all sounds reasonable. How come you've gotten yourself caught up in a fight with Yosarian? (This is not a fight I want to restart. Attacker-defender spats are hella boring to read.)

Guys, CES hasn't done anything thats actually scummy this game. I think there are 3 people that are alive that I would say that about. Terrible wagon.

First order of business:
I strongly dislike the building Shanba-wagon. It feels scum-fueled to me.

CTD, please stop being terrible at this game.

Dammit. We all want this. We can kill CES later.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

I will probably endorse the CDB hate. He's V/LA, though.

Dammit. We all want this. We can kill CES later.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

Pretty sure you mean Shanba, not CES.

Unvote
Vote: ChannelDelibird

Wagon go go go go go.

Unvote
Vote: ChannelDelibird

About damn time.

Unvote, vote: Channel

, I have faith in chamber and my Shanbavote didn't seem to draw any reactions. Boo.

Im really open to a Shanba vote.
Other news, I havent seen the reason to vote CDB beyond a lurker vote. Ill reread him but as I dont see the point now, I think this will be a wagon Ill miss.

I think gurgi not being under my name was actually a transcription error, he got put under CDB instead, which he later pointed out he shouldn't have been. I was trying to figure out where I messed up.

I am aware of the CDB wagon. I continue to think it would be fine if he were actually

here

, but is a waste of time as it stands. Hmm hmm.

@

DGB

: How's Glork doing so far, five days later? Right now his vote's on CDB, a lurker he doesn't think is scum based on a meta:

I would also prefer a Shanba lynch over a UT/CDB lynch, because (and this may sound stupid because of its metagaming nature) I think UT would have stayed around and kept superlurking if he were scum, rather than replacing out. Shanba fits the bill of Lurkerscum much more than UT/CDB.

@DGB: How's Glork doing so far, five days later? Right now his vote's on CDB, a lurker he doesn't think is scum based on a meta:

Again, you're using outdated information here. Shanba's defense of the nonexistent CDB-wagon (literally, there wasn't a single vote on CDB, and Shanba was blasting the lurkerhunt nature of the "wagon") is an extremely strong connection. Either Shanba is trying to earn superduperbrowniepoints by going "see, ITY he wasn't scum" when CDB does die, or he's trying to make sure that the wagon doesn't actually build (at least, not before CDB has a chance to actually participate in the game).

I would still strongly prefer a Shanbalynch over a CDBlynch, though.

Again, UT/CDB is the perfect storm of timely bandwagoning and lurking.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

CDB is at L-2.

I did want to work off of this, because I think it's likely that one of the mafia was bussing at this stage.
The wagons at the time of Ecto's claim looked like:

ChannelDelibird (1) -- Flameaxe

That leaves CTD/DGB and Flameaxe/CDB as possible scumpairs.

ChannelDelibird (6) -- Glork, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ether, DrippingGoofball, CrashTextDummie

I'm becoming less interested in a CDB lynch. It is more stagnant than the push against Shanba was. That said, he makes a reasonable vig/investigation target.

One of {Yos/Shanba} needs to be lynched today. The other needs to be vigged. There is no in-between, and I probably won't be moving my vote off of these two players.

I *might* be willing to go back to CDB. It really depends on what he does when he finally gets around to posting.

That's enough for now.

tl;dr summary for CDB

:
* Ether hopped off the Shanba wagon with cause before CTD called it "scum-fueled"
* chamber and Gurgi seemed to show genuine interest in figuring out who scum were and what each others' suspicions were
* Glork really wanted Shanba lynched over CDB and found a billion bad excuses to do it
* Glork, Ether, CES, chamber were the first four on Shanba. Pretty unlikely that's the scumteam, but who knows.
* chamber made efforts on multiple fronts (votecount summary, meta callout, lurking callout) to draw attention to CDB

My conclusions:
CDB is most likely scum. If he isn't, scum really mastered setting him up here, without knowing that Glork would fall before CDB.
Ether, chamber and Gurgi look like they were making real efforts to figure shit out.
CES, CDB and Porochaz were not.

[Zorblag]

I've managed to hurt my knee in a way that makes sitting uncomfortable. Fortunately it's doing a fair amount better today (happily I had a snow day so I could spend the entire morning in bed resting it rather than hobbling off to teach and probably aggravating it) so I can get a post in, but I apologize for the lack of posting the past couple days.

@MrBuddyLee, my feeling that ChannelDelibird and Cogito Ergo Sum aren't partners was based on gut reaction to how they were interacting when I was doing my readthroughs. As I'm not looking for a single scum in particular at this point the assumption probably isn't doing much harm but I will re-examine the attitude as I get more information. There's another it to it as well which would only matter to me, but I want to leave that unsaid for now; it might turn out to be useful later and I'll just ask you to trust me about why.

I do agree with you that Glork's position on the ChannelDelibird wagon was pretty half-hearted day two. It certainly seems like he was looking for a way to get off of it (though that doesn't have much to do with interactions with DrippingGoofball other than the initial entry.) I don't know that I particularly agree that Glork was freaked out about being tied to ChannelDelibird (though he did mention that it might seem that was happening) but I do agree that he was certainly trying to get Shanba and Yosarian2 in the sights of a vig before either ChannelDelibird or Cogito Ergo Sum. As long as Glork thought that he could avoid the lynch (and probably the vig) he doesn't have a great reason to be protecting townies at that point in day two.

All of that sort of feels like it's things that I've said before, but I still lean that way after looking at the day two interactions between Glork and DrippingGoofball now.

@Everyone, at this point I'm ready to vote for ChannelDelibird. If we were doing something work waiting for I'd be willing to wait but we're really not. If anyone wants to make an argument against my voting you have until this evening to do it. If it weren't LyLo my vote would have been cast with this post (well, actually it probably would have been cast earlier.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[ChannelDelibird]

This post made at 3am on no sleep and high stress, and is only being made because it looks like I'm not going to have computer access for the next 72 hours. Neither my head nor my heart is in this, so it is almost certainly going to suck, but clearly I need to say something.

CDB said two posts were tl;dr for him and kept him from reading on. Let's take a look:

Pfneh. I'm kind of pissed off that you don't take me on my word that certain posts are just too fucking long to bother with sometimes. And yes, as you so presciently predicted at the end of your post, a wall of dead people quotes is indeed tl;dr, but I skimmed the start and I'm pretty sure I get the idea. "ooh look the dead people who can no longer articulate their current thoughts said this therefore cdb is scum"

oh, fuck. I'm really sorry, but what a pile of crap the above paragraph is. I need to fucking sleep, and it's more important than this. I wouldn't post this but you need to know about my V/LA, but I guess that's pretty much going to make you lynch me anyway, which makes us lose the fucking gamae aaagjnasj.

Ugh. There is a slim chance I'll have some access tomorrow and I will return with a clear head if that happens but I really can't be sure if that will be possible or not. Basically just lynch prozac instead of me kthxbai goodnight

[Zorblag]

Yeah, that's an argument that fails to convince me.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

If that loses the game I suppose I'm sorry on principle, but only barely given the way we're limping along right now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Note, I was here.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm here now.

Ether: Have you come up with a good question yet or do you not read my posts?

Noting lack of bwahaha from MBL, my scumpicks are going strong.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Go go Channellynch.

[Ether]

What are you accusing me of having missed?

I'm not voting CDB, but I endorse the lynch happening. Just feel like there's so much stuff that I've totally failed to do and still need to get around to, you know? (Irritated that I don't get to have a proper conversation with Porochaz before deadline, but whatever, that's my fault.)