Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[Patrick]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (2) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, Zorblag
Porochaz (1) -- ChannelDelibird

Not voting: Porochaz, Ether, MrBuddyLee, Lord Gurgi
7 alive, 4 to lynch.

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, actually, at this point if you want to consider cases where ChannelDelibird isn't scum it looks to me as though the only scum team that you should be giving any real consideration to is Cogito Ergo Sum, Porochaz and Zorblag. Based on Cogito Ergo Sum's vote and the length of time it sat on ChannelDelibird one of the two of them should be scum. Similarly ChannelDelibird's vote for Porochaz sat there for long enough that one of the two of them should be scum. With move vote for ChannelDelibird and the activity that we've had since then (especially given the lower threshold needed to organize a two vote hammer) either one of the two of us should be scum.

If ChannelDelibird is town the other three of us should therefore be the scum team.

Having said that, if I was a member of that scum team there's very little chance that I'd try so hard to get ChannelDelibird to switch his vote to Cogito Ergo Sum (it draws attention to the issue) and I'd have very little reason to be the one to push the ChannelDelibird wagon with my own vote given that it again draws attention when I'm fairly sure that someone else would have voted that way on their own anyhow given what everyone's been saying in terms of suspicions. I'd be much better off biding my time and letting someone else make either that mistake (or potentially some other.) Town needs to make a decision at some point in our current state, scum in this environment can afford to wait. When I'm scum I'm not the impatient sort at all.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether, what do you think of inHim, Shanba and Yos?

Ether did not respond.

Ether, need some original thought from you on inHim, not sheeping.

Ether did not respond.

An MBL lynch is a compromise I am willing to make.

Details, please.

Ether responded with this:

Ythill thinks you're scum because he thinks you're scum with Glork. I think Glork is probably an insane cop, and got an innocent on you because you're scum.

So you have no play-based reasons for wanting me lynched, Ether?

Ether responded:

Something like that. My plan was always to put you off until I could see a few interactions and shit; Ythill's stance on Glork forced my hand there.

you've stated flatly that Huck is scum while giving absolutely no evidence to support it. So please elaborate upon why you feel he's scum.

Ether responded:

I think he's scummy for reasons other people have already given (even if I was thinking them first). He flew way too far under the radar for my comfort on Days 1 and 2, and is still coasting on his list without actually looking for or making the slightest effort to get scum lynched.

Wait, Ether. You suspect CDB less because you think his wagon that you were on (and you were the last person to get OFF of) was sketchy? Going to need some explanation from you re: why the CDB wagon(s) have been suspect.

Ether's response:

I didn't actually check who was on it; I was running from memory. But, um, yeah, I do think CES and chamber are both pretty likely to be scum.

You're really not answering the question, Ether. What specifically about that CDB wagon you were on looks sketchy to you?

You're going to answer me first.

Why are you pretending to suspect me when I'm the investigated innocent of the cop you are confident is town?

I'm frustrated.

Ether, I just read your entire post history and I believe you've given two reasons why Glork is town:

1) Because he sucks this game too much to be scum.
2) Just because.

I would like some more specifics from you, please.

At this point my position is less that Glork is a shining beacon of towniness and more that we don't lynch the uncounterclaimed cop. I'm sick of Glork--as a player, as a human being, as a topic of discussion, as some fucking lurker I need to defend--and it's kind of been wearing down my resolve. He's literally haunted my dreams, you know.

Based on the death (again), CES is town (again).

Ether, why is CES town based on the last two deaths?

unvote; vote: MrBuddyLee

For the first bit, not the question. (I think CES would have killed Crash instead of Ythill.)

Why?

On second thoughts, I don't want to give my full answer yet. Sorry--feel free to call me on this later.

You said you picked up a bit from your previous games with Glork, so please share. What did you learn from your previous games with Glork in which you accurately read him as scum?

I picked up that Glork could go either way when he's competent, but when he sucks, he's probably town? I was wrong, MBL, and the one time I read him correctly as scum, the game mechanics basically forced him not to bus. I think he probably did a more flexible form of that here--intentionally setting up innocents on his scumbuddies one by one and hoping to make it to LyLo that way.

Ether, did you read D1? Do you really think Glork was trying to bus me all day?

Also, can you please be clear about why you believe CDB isn't a good lynch today? Is it just that I'm on him, or is it more that you don't like the CDB wagons?

while I have read the full game, I barely remember any of it. (For example, I only remember the fact that Glork was attacking you based on Ythill's conspiracy theory from Day 3, right before Glork claimed cop. For what it's worth, I don't think said theory is likely at all.) I probably should go back over the early parts of the game for other reasons: not necessarily for your sake.

I think you brought up a fair point on the CDBwagon the last time you drew it to my attention, and it's still perfectly fair. I dunno. There are active reasons why I dislike Huck and Porochaz, while CDB is just absent.

You seem to have gone from "Porochaz is obvscum" to "Huck is obvscum and he's voting Porochaz so Poro might not be scum". What gives?

When I was trying to lynch Porochaz yesterday, I believed Huck had an innocent result from a confirmed sane cop.

Ether, why did you hop off Huck and stay off all day?

Ether did not answer.

Please make your case, Ether. Explicitly. I have been very patient with your nonsense, but I'd like to hear your FULL case. That's how the game is played. All day yesterday you spouted "Huck + MBL" "Huck + MBL" with a side dose of Porochaz. Huck is dead. You were wrong.

Ether did not respond.

Also, Ether, from all accounts you appear to heavily suspect Porochaz. Please explain your case on Porochaz.

Ether did not respond, but mentioned this:

I'm still in a position where I...kind of think Porochaz is town

Please explain how it was better to no-lynch quickly than to have Shanba give us his full suspicions. Even if Shanba had claimed/softclaimed vanilla, how would that have affected the day/night's events negatively?

Ether did not respond.

Please post WHY you thought CES was roled.

Ether has not answered.


I have so many problems with your play after reading all this over again.

* You dodged two questions about inHim D2
* You didn't give any play-based reasons for suspecting me (only your GlorkInsaneCop debacle)
* You claimed to be waiting to judge me based on interactions, but you haven't looked at or commented on any of my interactions with ANYONE.
* You defended Glork blindly without analyzing his play other than to say "he sucks this game"--how did you know he sucked before he died?
* You switched from Porochaz to Huck after the Glork lynch, for no good reason other than that Huck no longer had an innocent on him.
* You stayed off the Huck wagon all day, only hammering with some weird reasoning about "Poro and Huck not being scum together"
* Jan 16, you said the CDB wagon you were on in December was "sketchy" and thus you thought CDB was town
* You said CES was likely scum on Jan 16 but you are currently claiming you have thought for some time that he was roled town and that's why you killed Shanba fast.
* You held back answers regarding why you thought CES was town to start D4
* You recently said Porochaz is town and that you won't vote CDB, which makes it look like you don't have three scum suspects.

And possibly the biggest one:
* You seem oddly confident for someone who's been wrong over and over.

If I'm wrong, big whoop. I'm posting all this because I think your play has been sketchy, and if by some miracle scum finish me off tonight, this info's important to have front and center. If you're town, you're fully capable of defending yourself.

[MrBuddyLee]

scum in this environment can afford to wait. When I'm scum I'm not the impatient sort at all.

Does it bother you that CES is so impatient?

[Lord Gurgi]

I don't think CDB and Prozac go together.

Why not?

It would be pretty silly if they were both together.

Why in the fuck did you vote Ether?

[MrBuddyLee]

To get the annoyance out of my system.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think CDB and Prozac go together.

Why not?

It would be pretty silly if they were both together.

Can you name something that you would expect to have gone down differently if they were scum together? I can't think of a less specific objection than "It would be silly".

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, Cogito Ergo Sum's play today isn't that troubling offhand. He's much more certain of his reads on ChannelDelibird and Porochaz than I would be but that's true of many people much of the time. Impatience is a town tell for me in this situation (though clearly I'm at least aware enough of that to think of it and bring it up which reduces the strength) but I'm not convinced that it's an alignment tell for people in general; I think that it comes down to personality.

In the end, Cogito Ergo Sum started today with two suspects who make a fair amount of sense and has stuck with them. Neither ChannelDelibird nor Porochaz have done anything to shake suspicion that I've seen today so I find that consistency reasonable in this case. It's helpful that in my opinion he's started with the better option for the lynch but I suppose that's not really an alignment tell on it's own so much as it's me liking it when people come to the same conclusions that I have.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Porochaz]

What do you think about CDB?

What do you think about Gurgi?

You do realize that this notion that I'm scum is absolute bullshit, right?

Havent I stated my opinion on CDB before? I find him scummy, because I dont think he's even trying anymore. He's accepted the inevitable and is waiting for his lynch rather than try and change peoples minds...

Gurgi I feel is town. He hasn't given me any reason to think otherwise and as I have 3 people in this thread who I feel are scum-worthy.

I don't think the case on you is bullshit at all. You havent been correct about one single thing this game and it seems strongly that you are leading people down the garden path.

Lynch happy CES is the 3rd by the way

[Zorblag]

@Porochaz, is there any particular reason that you're not voting for ChannelDelibird at this point if you think that he's likely scum? It seems that of your three suspects he's the one that's likely to get lynched today (and, as I've argued, if he's town the scum team really almost has to be Cogito Ergo Sum, you and I at this point.) That he's left a vote on you for as long as he has and town hasn't lost the game should be all the convincing that you need that he's scum assuming that you're town.

Re: Ether as scum, it's possible that Ether is scum but if that's the case she's been particularly brazen about being wrong. I guess I could buy that to some degree; it's not what I expect from scum but I tend to have a more cautious approach to the game than many when I'm scum. On the other hand, we've also got the interactions between Ether and Glork right when she jumps into the game right around here which would be latching right on to a scum partner and drawing attention in a way that I wouldn't expect scum to do (from both ends in this case) as soon as possible. I don't have that much experience playing with Ether but there are very few people I can think of that I'd see scum play like that coming from.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Porochaz]

See I can see brazen play coming from Ether easily. She is experienced enough to pull it off and from what I know about Ether, Im fairly sure she can pull the confident persona off. I know from when she balanced one of my games that she prefers a scum win so I can see her easily taking a more brazen approach to it.

I see what you mean Zorb, I held off because I wanted to chat with Ether a bit more. Especially as she is my top suspect at the moment. At the very least I want her to answer MBL's case. However she can still answer either way.

vote CDB

[MrBuddyLee]

*yawn* looking better and better at this point. Or else it's Zorblag-CES-Porochaz.

[MrBuddyLee]

Cdb, your thoughts?

[Lord Gurgi]

I don't think CDB and Prozac go together.

Why not?

It would be pretty silly if they were both together.

Can you name something that you would expect to have gone down differently if they were scum together? I can't think of a less specific objection than "It would be silly".

So they decided it would be brilliant to begin the day by narrowing it down to the two of them? Seriously?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Give me one plausible scenario in which Channel and Prozac both survive this Day.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok, Gurgi and Ether, we find ourselves somewhat on the same team right now. We face two choices:

1) vote CDB
2) the scumteam is CES+Zorblag+Porochaz and we need to all vote Porochaz alongside CDB.

One and only one of those two propositions is correct. One is guaranteed to be correct. The three of us need to decide which and act in the next 24 hours or so.

I was hoping to wait a bit and see if CDB reacted to the current situation, but frankly, we don't have the time.

I am interested to see your thought on the current vote situation, and your thoughts on the likelihood of CES+Zorblag+Porochaz. I'm about to reread the entire game right now from that perspective to see if it makes consistent sense. Whether or not you have time to do that, please post your thoughts on which is the better of our two choices right now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hint: it's not 2).

[Lord Gurgi]

Yes, it's lylo, so one of the lynches is correct.

So what if we lynch Prozac and he turns up scum, but you're wrong about the team?

Also who's your team with CDB?

CES you could have died today.

[MrBuddyLee]

So what if we lynch Prozac and he turns up scum, but you're wrong about the team?

Also who's your team with CDB?

It's possible that Prozac and CDB are scum together.

But the utterly fabulous thing right now is that we can guarantee that at least one is. And possibly both.

My instinct is CES-Prozac-CDB, with Zorblag/Ether possibly subbing in for one. Ordinarily, I'd be hesitant to give scum info on my suspects so they can decide who to nightkill and who to leave around, but my suspicions are fairly fluid right now. We have two lurkers who haven't given us a lot, CES who has gone for low hanging fruit and minimal verbiage all game, and Ether, who has played the prototypical scum game and the only arguments against are 1) most dead town have found her townish and 2) scum wouldn't dare risk playing THAT wrong. My Gurgitown read is more tone-based than anything, and if it comes down to a final three with you in it, I hope whoever's left definitely takes the time to read your play critically to see how it matches up with the rest of caught scum.

I only made it 10 pages before heading to brunch, but if CES-Zorblag-Porochaz is the scumteam, CES and chamber buddied early, which would be odd.

Fuck alliances. (unless its me and CES).

Hey ces, can we vote ythill or yos instead of ctd?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES you could have died today.

Nuh-uh. Channel even went with voting Poro instead of voting me back.

P.S. Note who isn't posting.

[MrBuddyLee]

The correct scumteam is one of these:

CDB-Gurgi-Porochaz
CDB-Ether-Porochaz
CDB-CES-Porochaz
CDB-Zorblag-Porochaz

CDB-Gurgi-Ether
CDB-Gurgi-CES
CDB-Gurgi-Zorblag
CDB-Ether-CES
CDB-Ether-Zorblag
CDB-CES-Zorblag

Zorblag-CES-Porochaz

Any other scumteam could have quicklynched by now for victory.

So either Zorblag-CES-Porochaz is the scumteam, trying to goad one town into voting CDB,

or CDB is scum.

that kind of very early game budding/alliance forming like he was doing with ces in that vote is cool in scumchat games, but seems at least somewhat scummy this early in a forum game.

You're just a buzzkill.

Chamber wanted:

More UT votes!!

when UT was L-3.

Glork specifically protected UT, even though he still finds UT suspicious:
Untrod Tripod (7) -- CrashTextDummie,

Flameaxe

,

chamber

, Mert,

Cogito Ergo Sum

, Fritzler,

Glork

I'm not feeling the UT wagon. I would like to see more pressure on Ecto, especially in light of MBL's post (*cringe*).
Unvote, Vote: Ecto

If scumteam is chamber, Glork, CES, Flameaxe, note that ALL FOUR were on the UT wagon, which would explain why Glork hopped off. Because he wouldn't want the entire scumteam to get caught on a mislynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because he wouldn't want the entire scumteam to get caught on a mislynch.

Are we still pretending that that sort of thing ever happens?

[MrBuddyLee]

chamber oddly posted:
C0mr4ad3 (11:45:57 PM): Chamber, go make a post in our game
blargerer (11:47:13 PM): prod me in thread not out, if I'm reading I'll get the message.
C0mr4ad3 (11:49:11 PM): Well, I just posted, and I don't want to doublepost

which is a really odd thing to post if they're scum together. 1) possible modkill of scumpartner 2) possible drawing of association between scumpartners

Strongly tempted to eliminate the CDB-Ether-Zorblag scumteam from our remaining possibilities.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm not sure where you're going with all this, MBL.

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, out of curiousity, who are the two players you're classifying as lurkers who haven't given us a lot in Post 2818? I can probably guess but you seem to be going through the players and no matter how I parse it or assign lurkers to your list you end up describing at least one player less than I expect you to.

@Everyone, I know that it doesn't really need saying given the group of players who are still here, but assuming that we lynch ChannelDelibird today and in case I'm not around tomorrow to point it out, do remember that his entire day had been devoted to scum mind games and should essentially be ignored. It's tempting to try to outguess how he'd play off partners or town with how he placed his vote but he's clearly not playing with any expectation of living through the day so the whole thing is meant to be a trap one way or the other. It'll almost certainly be more productive to look at the rest of the body of evidence we've got from the rest of the game when deciding who to lynch.

Also, don't let the deadline pass without a lynch today. Further, we don't have to wait till the last minute every single day; we're not particularly helped by it in this case. Once discussion has been had the lynch should occur. A game in which interest flags and things get forgotten is usually one which benefits the scum. We should all know that at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh