Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm trying to figure out whether CES-Zorblag-Porochaz is a more realistic possibility than "CDB = scum".

You do realize you could just vote CDB if you're confident he's scum. What are you waiting for?

[Lord Gurgi]

I agree with MBL this time. Zorblag you might as well vote in this circumstance, unless you think MBL's accusation has merit.

[MrBuddyLee]

Gurgi, Zorblag's voted. We have to choose now between CDB and Porochaz, or try to do some quick persuading about an alternate candidate. With Ether not around, our options may be limited.

So the problem I'm having at the moment is that you guys are posting faster than I can catch up. I requested replacement in a couple of games yesterday for the purpose of making sure I can stick with this one. I promised Patrick I wouldn't flake and so I am determined not to.

The wagon on me appears to be receding so I feel like claiming now would be a bit counter-productive (

and I don't see any reason why it would affect DGB's view of me anyway

). If I am wrong and more than, say, the four people still voting for me want me to, then I will.

How much have you read?

I got stuck at page 41 when CTD posted a huge tl;dr. Wading back in now.

Heh, I think the research may have finally paid off.

In the bolded part of the quoted post above, CDB appears to be concerned with the possibility of being vigged by DGB.

But if CDB only checked votecounts and stopped reading at page 41, how did he know that DGB was the "vig"? Crash's "tl;dr" post was Dec 16th 6:55pm. DGB's first major vig hint was two days later:

@ MBL

Shall I vig Glork?

Or, I could vig CES.

Hypothesis 1: CDB's scumteam filled him in behind the scenes (quicktopic) about DGB being a possible vig
Hypothesis 2: CDB lied about not staying current with the game and is scum
Hypothesis 3: CDB lied about not staying current with the game and is terrible town

[Zorblag]

Deadline is approximately 8 hours away as I make this post. If we don't lynch by deadline we lose. Everyone not voting is responsible for making sure that doesn't happen as at least one of you has to be town.

@Lord Gurgi, although it came after my post, MrBuddyLee's encouragement to vote was almost a simulpost and was pretty clearly directed at you. It boggles my mind that you could think that I'm not voting at this point if you're following the game, especially given that Post 2772 seems to be showing pretty clear awareness of it. This goes back to what I said earlier about feeling like you're just going with the suspicions that you came up with early in the game and not making an effort to figure things out now; you don't seem to be paying much attention to the course of the game at the time when it's most important. If you're town that's a particularly troublesome thing.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Someone vote, dammit.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm here and utterly fascinated.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Don't toy around, MBL.

[MrBuddyLee]

Gurgi, Ether, can you please post if you're interesting in discussing gamestate at all?

[Patrick]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (3) -- Cogito Ergo Sum, Zorblag, Porochaz
Porochaz (1) -- ChannelDelibird

Not voting: Ether, MrBuddyLee, Lord Gurgi
7 alive, 4 to lynch.

Deadline is 4 hours 11 minutes away by my count.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok, here's the case for Glork-CES-chamber/Zorblag-Porochaz being the scumteam.

* They NEVER voted each other D1, other than CES's random vote stage vote on Glork
* They NEVER voted each other D2
* Glork made a point of calling out his meta--a chronic buser--but he never bused a scumpartner until CES right before lynch.

DGB: Why wouldn't I want to bus hard? I have a long and storied history of busing hard, which I'd be more than glad to show you if you want. Heck, the one thing I don't do is stick my neck out for my scumbuddies when they've got a noose around their neck. Meta completely, 100% disagrees with what you're insinuating here.

* They were on lots of wagons together:

Nov 19: CrashTextDummie (6) -- Fritzler, Shanba, Untrod Tripod,

Cogito Ergo Sum

, IH,

chamber

Nov 23: Untrod Tripod (7) -- CrashTextDummie,

Flameaxe, chamber

, Mert,

Cogito Ergo Sum

, Fritzler,

Glork

* Nov 24, Glork hopped off the CDB wagon "still on the fence about CDB" possibly because ALL FOUR SCUM were on the wagon (note, Glork only got on CDB because he was skimming the game and Fritzler told him to get on CDB the previous day)

Dec 4: Ectomancer (8) -- stark, MrBuddyLee,

Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum

, Mert, Fritzler, Yosarian2, DrippingGoofball
Dec 16: Shanba (5) --

Glork

, Ether,

Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber

, HackerHuck
Dec 17: ChannelDelibird (4) -- DrippingGoofball,

Glork, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum

Dec 23: Yosarian2 (7) -- Shanba, MrBuddyLee, Ythill,

Glork

, CrashTextDummie,

chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum

(poro on Ythill)
Jan 3: inHimshallibe (7) -- ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi,

Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber

, HackerHuck, Yosarian2,

Porochaz

Jan 10: Shanba (2) --

Glork, Cogito Ergo Sum

*

Jan 10, Glork claims cop and is counterclaimed. Plan changes:

Jan 11-Jan 16:

Glork

(3) -- Ythill, CrashTextDummie,

Cogito Ergo Sum

Glork

(3) -- CrashTextDummie, ChannelDelibird,

Porochaz

Glork

(3) -- CrashTextDummie, ChannelDelibird,

Porochaz

Glork

(4) -- CrashTextDummie, ChannelDelibird,

Porochaz, Cogito Ergo Sum

Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Glork

* CES, Prozac jumped on and off Glork while Huck, Ether, Gurgi, MBL wavered

Right before Glorklynch:

Porochaz

(5) -- Shanba, Ether, Ythill, HackerHuck,

chamber

*

Hypothesis: scumteam temporarily abandoned no-busing behavior to deal with Glorkwagon

Day 4:
HackerHuck (5) --

Cogito Ergo Sum

, ChannelDelibird, Lord Gurgi, Shanba,

Zorblag

Porochaz

did not place a vote all D4
CES was his #1 suspect after Glork D3
But he weakened his stance and never placed a vote D4 despite finding Huck null:

I'm up for a Porochaz lynch now. Looking back at his scum-hunting, it seems that he had made his decisions prior to actually using that point system (much like he accused DGB of doing). If you take away Ythill due to the claim, his top suspect CES had a -10 and Glork was at a -7. Gurgi and I were null reads (-4.5, -5) and DGB was town at a -1. I'm not sure where the line was drawn, but it looks like it was fitted to his suspect list.

I voted Glork over CES purely because the claim I don't feel is believable and things change like the claim therefore I have to adhust my vote accordingly.

Porochaz, what do you think of HackerHuck, CDB, CES, Gurgi and chamber?

H.H. - same opinion as my summary of him in my reread
CDB - Chronic Lurker, same as me, pretty much, except from my point of view, I think that Im being more accessable than him. Looking at the game more as a whole, he seems to have made a load of excuses

CES

- I didnt like CES in my reread, I havent really noticed him since. Im going to look through his posts at a later date
Gurgi - Flying very much under the radar

Chamber

- Not much of an opinion, need to iso him as well

* Repeat, Poro did not vote anyone all day D4

D5
No Lynch (5) --

Cogito Ergo Sum

, Lord Gurgi,

Porochaz

, Ether,

Zorblag

D6
ChannelDelibird (3) --

Cogito Ergo Sum, Zorblag, Porochaz

=========================================================================
Caveats:
1) CDB was on a few of those bad wagons, and was the target of a few of those wagons and could have been busing
2) CDB also bused Glork quickly without much hesitation
3) CDB appears to have lied about whether or not he read the game past page 41--he knew about DGB's vig claim that happened a few pages later
4) The "scum decided not to bus" theory is just that--a theory. We have to decide whether that makes more sense or if "CDB is scum and was occasionally bused" makes more sense.

Still thinking. I am not yet ready to vote CDB, as so much evidence fits if Glork-CES-Chamber-Poro are the scumteam. However, if we don't discuss/vote soon, we are in imminent danger of nolynch. Need thoughts from everyone, including thoughts from Zorblag/CES/Poro on why they DON'T fit as a sucmteam.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's half an hour to deadline.

If you don't vote for Channel, we lose.

[MrBuddyLee]

Note, CDB and Porochaz can still potentially be scumpartners, but the thing that matters right now is figuring out whether the reason CDB is not dead yet is because:
1) He's town, CES-Zorblag-Poro are scum, and only town are still deliberating
or
2) CDB is scum and 1-3 town are still thinking it over

We either lynch Porochaz or CDB. One or both have to be scum. Gurgi and Ether, which is more likely?

[MrBuddyLee]

Pretty sure deadline's in 1 1/2 hrs.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glork hopped off the CDB wagon "still on the fence about CDB" possibly because ALL FOUR SCUM were on the wagon

You didn't explain how this would actually work last time either.

Pretty sure deadline's in 1 1/2 hrs.

Point still stands though. If it were CES-Zorblarg-Poro, you'd need Ether and Drummers to post in the next 1.5 hour and vote Prozac.

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, I've already gone over why I wouldn't act the way I have today were I scum with that particular group. It's also worth pointing out that with current site meta scum would actually have a reason to go out of their way to all be on the same wagon (VCA assumes they won't most of the time and we had multiple people using VCA here.) I'm also not at all sure why you think that Porochaz would be the person that chamber would vote for as a response to the Glork wagon; why vote for some other scum once one is going to be lynched if the scum team went out of it's way to avoid voting eac hother for the entire game up till then. Further, in general there's no great reason for a scum team as a whole to spend as much time as you're proposing making sure that they never vote for each other; it's too likely to look artificial.

But really, do you think that ChannelDelibird is that likely to be town? Based on what you're saying up to and including this last post that answer appears to be no. His behavior today, when it arguably matters most hasn't been that of town trying not to lose the game with a mislynch; it's been that of scum trying to give as little information as possible away as they go down.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

I agree that CDB has not played a particularly protown game, that's why this sucks.

[MrBuddyLee]

Deadline hits 10 pm GMT on the 28th.

Current GMT: 8:52 PM

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, you also seem to be arguing that the fact that a bunch of wagons (many of which might have lead to lynches) having most of your proposed scum team on them is an indication that you've got it right but that the one time all four were on the same wagon Glork had to hop off quickly to avoid the connections of everyone being on the same lynch. If they cared about all 4 (or Glork cared about it as he was the one to hop off) why wouldn't they also care about having 3 scum on the same mislynch and try to avoid wagons that featured that much concentration of scum. There would still be almost as many connections for the town to find.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Fuck alliances. (unless its me and CES).

Hey ces, can we vote ythill or yos instead of ctd?

Guys, CES hasn't done anything thats actually scummy this game. I think there are 3 people that are alive that I would say that about. Terrible wagon.

CES hasn't done anything significant in a while, he's lurking in plain sight.

He should speak out now, he might not be here tomorrow morning.

CES is on V/LA

DGB: CES isn't happening, push for someone that might actually die.

And never mentioned CES after that.

I think at this point I like ChannelDelibird best as a scum candidate. If I'm wrong about that then Cogito Ergo Sum probably goes up some on my list

Actually, if you're wrong, the game's over.

@MrBuddyLee, my feeling that ChannelDelibird and Cogito Ergo Sum aren't partners was based on gut reaction to how they were interacting when I was doing my readthroughs.

Possible coaching:

@Porochaz, is there any particular reason that you're not voting for ChannelDelibird at this point if you think that he's likely scum? It seems that of your three suspects he's the one that's likely to get lynched today (and, as I've argued, if he's town the scum team really almost has to be Cogito Ergo Sum, you and I at this point.) That he's left a vote on you for as long as he has and town hasn't lost the game should be all the convincing that you need that he's scum assuming that you're town.

I see what you mean Zorb, I held off because I wanted to chat with Ether a bit more. Especially as she is my top suspect at the moment. At the very least I want her to answer MBL's case. However she can still answer either way.

vote CDB

Reasons for voting CDB:

Havent I stated my opinion on CDB before? I find him scummy, because I dont think he's even trying anymore. He's accepted the inevitable and is waiting for his lynch rather than try and change peoples minds...

Yeah, that's an argument that fails to convince me.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

If that loses the game I suppose I'm sorry on principle, but only barely given the way we're limping along right now.

Who do you want lynched and why?

Channel/Prozac. I've already said why.

You have? I just read back through December 17th and couldn't find a hint of a case you've made against either. Please indulge me by emptyquoting your old cases/arguments for those two being scum.

I just read that stretch of your posts again. You never made any kind of case on either or stated any facts in support of your belief that they're scum. Not one.

This time, you're not wagoning. Please make your cases, or point us to the previous cases you claim you've made on those two.

Huh. I guess I assumed that had come up at some point previous. The answer is pretty boring anyway: lurking (in the case of Porochaz), gut (mostly Channel on this one), process of elimination, Glrok protecting Channel. I think my suspicion of HH blinded me to Channelscum a bit previously, because Channel proposing HH-Prozac-me looked like a losing proposition.

Not super convincing. But neither is the proposition that CDB is town.

Paging Gurgi and Ether to a white courtesy phone.

[Zorblag]

@MrBuddyLee, is that what you're saying my reasons for voting ChannelDelibird were? Is that what you think they were? I have some trouble believing that. I also think that you're stalling at this point.

When I made the statement about ChannelDelibird being my favorite for a scum candidate there were no votes. Now I know that there's really no reasonable chance that I'm wrong so the conditional is moot. It's fascinating that you took the time to find that bit in the post though and seem not to be taking any context into account. Your possible coaching bit is actually trying to get the obvious votes that should be cast into place so that we wouldn't have to deal with some sort of deadline nonsense that we're dealing with now. Much like how I encouraged you and Ether to stop wasting your time with each other slightly before that.

I'm definitely going to have some things to say when this game day ends (however it ends) but frustratingly they need to wait now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MrBuddyLee]

Note, if Flameaxe is scum with chamber-Glork-CES, he nails two of the three in this post--he technically calls Glork town but says there's something nonspecifically "weird" about him. And he gives a null on chamber.

1) Yosarian2
-Not getting any huge scummy vibes here. Trying to figure out all this chamber-hate, maybe I'm not seeing something. Could you give me an in your own words explanation for why he's scum?
-Leaning town
2) Mert
- I agree with your opinions on the CTD wagon, pretty much agree with everything mert says about the UT situation too. Not much else to really get to.
-Leaning town.
3) IH
- HI IH. Nothing really to get a solid read here. Or anything close to solid for that matter. Glad you have computer access again, hopefully we'll hear more from you soon.
-No read
4) Shanba
-Shanba's recent lack of sleep posts feel very protown to me. Can't really think of anything else meaningful to say here.
-Leaning Town
5) Flameaxe
-Really needs to start participating and posting more in this game.
6) CrashTextDummie
-Nothing bad jumps out at me here. Nothing super jumps out at me either.
-Null read.

7) Glork
-I like some parts, indifferent about others here. His catchup post seems fine on paper, but I'm getting a weird gut read about it. Can't really explain it. I'm going to try to work on finding words to explain it. I'm liking his posts since then without any weird gut feelings.
-Leaning town 'weird gut' read?

8) Cogito Ergo Sum
- Yarr. Again, not a ton to go off of. Not a huge fan of his wagon jumping, considering most of it has nothing else to go with it from what I can see. Also noting that CES has been on three (what I consider to be) major wagons in CTD, UT, and now Ecto (ecto's jump did have some opinion with it).
-Leaning slightly scum.

9) Lord Gurgi
- Not really getting any strong read on Flimsy either. If anything, I like some of his points throughout the game.
-Slightly town

10) Untrod Tripod
- Nothing has changed from the reasons I voted him in the first place. Not liking how he plays off a vote (that in my mind) came off as a serious vote as a joke vote. Not liking his essential vanishing from the thread after that point up until a few hours ago.
- Still Feeling scum.

11) Ythill
- Without going into terrible details for time reasons, some parts of my read gave me town vibes, but my read started shuffling back down as the thread went on. Mainly the whole ShanbaSlip business that rubs me the wrong way. I'm really not seeing it and it feels like grasping at straws a bit. However, I don't really see a reason for him to grasp either way. So...Yeah.
- Null I guess, could go either way.
12) Fritzler
- Again, not much to go off of. Has...sort of been around, but hasn't really given a whole lot content-wise other than his UT push.
- Null
13) HackerHuck
- Ythill vote is a stretch, in my opinion. I see his point, I guess, and it sort of makes sense, but that doesn't make it any less of a stretch.
-Leaning Slightly scum
14) Ectomancer
- Feels very much like frustrated town to me. Never been a big fan of the whole "no vote, no town read" style that almost seems to be the case at points. A lot of the points against Ecto seem contrived to me as well. The response to said points gives me said frustrated town read.
-Town

15) stark
- First off, hi! Didn't say that earlier for some reason. Seems to be actively trying to get information out of everyone, in a seemingly protown way. Can't find anything bad to pick out from his iso.
-Town

16) inHimshallibe
- Odd vibes from the whole Vote CTD, vote mert, CTD wagon diffused chain of events in iso 6-7. In regards to my last post, you point out what I pointed out in my last post in iso 10. I'll put that here to look back on too.
- Kind of a null read.

17) chamber
- I honestly cannot come up with a read here. I'm going to come back to this one at an earlier hour...

18) MrBuddyLee
- His questioning of Ecto seems protown-ish. Is there anyone besides Ecto on your scumdar? Just wondering.
-Slightly town.

If he is scum with CES-Glork-CDB, same thing--he actually nailed all THREE scum.

If he's scum with Ether/Gurgi and one of CDB/CES/chamber, he mixed it up.

If he's town, he amazingly managed to call Glork weird, and two of Glork's potential scumpartners (and three of the four most likely) scum. CDB, CES, chamber.

aargh

If he's town, and Glork + Gurgi/Ether + CES/chamber + CDB is the scumteam, his reads are still significantly better than average.

Is Flameaxe that good at mafia? Or did he have inside info?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

15 minutes left, MBL. There's only one viable course of action.

[MrBuddyLee]

Jesus, Ether. Gurgi's invisible. We barely have time to process this.

You're going to have to make a gut call. CDB or Poro. Hopefully Gurgi is listening in and will weigh in as well. I doubt BOTH of you are scum. If either of you feels CDB strongly, hammer him. Otherwise, consider the Glork-chamber/Zorb-CES-Flameaxe/Porochaz combo and please at least comment.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

MBL, you'd better not be enjoying this.

[MrBuddyLee]

And Ether's no longer browsing the forum.