130.Mirror Mafia - Game Over

[Thor665]

Bleh - you presume an awful lot for the Ctorj as scum based on the neighbor evidence, even if I'm scum. And since I'm not that makes even less sense barring actual supportive data independant of my alignment.

I think you're right about Pine and wrong about the entire Red team.

[Thor665]

@Calc - so, wait, you're predicting Bub and I killed Cecily? So either I'm scum who can use his neighbor power *and* the NK at the same time, or I told Bub to kill someone I also intended to neighbor? Derpy-doo-dah to you too.

[Magister Ludi]

Thor makes sense as scum but not with Bub. Look at the day one interactions of the two known scum, farside and gollum, to Bub. Each push hard on Bub, with Gollum especially so.

Ctorj does need to be lynched of this planet soon, but not today as there is still the chance of some town role or mafia killing/clearing him and we won't waste a lynch.

Ion and twistedspoon are still very certain scum in my book. twisted spoon especially for his move on to ctorj imploring him to 'do something' Sounds good, maybe you would like to do it too?

[Magister Ludi]

Thor, who are pine's buddies?

[Thor665]

You would be my top buddy pick.

[Magister Ludi]

What color scum is Pine? Who is on the other team?

Do you still believe this compliment you paid be about my post on Haylen "flippin' Ludi of all people with a good catch in his last post,"?

[Thor665]

ITT Ludi proves he's talking a lot and not reading anything. I'm pretty sure I was the first and clearest in assigning color to Pinescum - seriously.
I suck at team associations, I'd probably lynch TS first looking for reds.
I'm sorry I upset you by complimenting you for doing something that looked like scumhunting while still believing you are scum. You still acted weird around the Gollum lynch, don't act like I should forget that.

[Magister Ludi]

No, I am reading. You have never expressely stated which color you think pine is, or why this make sense.

Its not even team association. At minimum, there are four potential scum left in this game, and before being promted about it this page you had only ever identified one, Pine, and not even his color of scum, which you slipped in on post #925. You haven't been making an active effort to really sort out who is town or scum.

The point about my comment was that I called out Haylen for being scum, which would in your mind put her on a different team than me. Since you think I am black scum apparently, that would make her red scum, and buddies with twistedspoon who you just identified as red, or did you forget that you posted that?

[Thor665]

No, I am reading. You have never expressely stated which color you think pine is, or why this make sense.

Hello?
::knocks on Ludi's head and hears a dull thumping sound::
Oh...okay, I'll leave a message.

I called Pine scum for a "mirror tell" and consequently I'm suggesting that the scum teams are mirrored just as town is. Now, if the one flipped scum tracking role is red than probably...I have never indicated what scum team I think pine is.
Yeah.

[Pine]

ITT Ludi proves he's talking a lot and not reading anything.

I'm pretty sure I was the first and clearest in assigning color to Pinescum - seriously.

I suck at team associations, I'd probably lynch TS first looking for reds.
I'm sorry I upset you by complimenting you for doing something that looked like scumhunting while still believing you are scum. You still acted weird around the Gollum lynch, don't act like I should forget that.

No, I am reading. You have never expressely stated which color you think pine is, or why this make sense.

Hello?
::knocks on Ludi's head and hears a dull thumping sound::
Oh...okay, I'll leave a message.

I called Pine scum for a "mirror tell" and consequently I'm suggesting that the scum teams are mirrored just as town is. Now, if the one flipped scum tracking role is red than probably...

I have never indicated what scum team I think pine is.

Yeah.

[Thor665]

My face is in my palm.

[Ctorj49]

But first:
We have the explanation for Thor's triple targetting dilemma. He's a neighborizer, with the ability to make neighbors whoever the hell he wants.
Night 1 he neighborized Ctorj and pappums because he defected on his night deadline.

You, sir, are CORRECT!!
On a side note, I miss pappums. I knew he was townie and we were beginning to have fruitful conversation when the bastids came and killed him.

While you are right about Thor's ability, you still haven't convinced me he is scum.

I like the Pine bandwagon, but I'm wondering why he is holding back. His posts have an odd rhythm to them. Like something is off...

unvote

[Pine]

What's off is that I was V/LA from Friday morning until this evening. Only had the (limited) ability to post from phone. Other threads have taken precedence in my catchup.

@Thor: Why are you facepalming at that? It reads pretty clearly to me as you trying to paint me whatever color is most convenient at the time, while trying desperately not to lock me into a specific category...because doing so would be a tell as to your own color.

[Duplicity]

Alright, a few things.

1. Calcifier can you fucking explain the Pine-scum read because I don't see it at all, explain the Thorscum read at the same time.

2. Thor the case that one scum-pr flipped therefore Pine is scum is awful, it really is.

3. I've been reading Haylens recent posts a bit today, and I'm starting to get a feeling she's just horrible town.

4. Pine, Thors "I have never indicated what scum team I think pine is" was incredibly obvious sarcasm.

5. Any of Bub/Bunny/Twisted/Ctorj are good lynches, Pine is not.

Current Reads:

Obvious Town:

Pine, Calcifer, Flinter.

Likely Town:

Ion67, Thor665, Haylen, Furcolow

Null:

Nocemen, Magister Ludi

Likely Scum:

Bub Bidderskins, TwistedSpoon.

Obvious Scum:

BunnyLover, Ctorj49.

[Pine]

4. Pine, Thors "I have never indicated what scum team I think pine is" was incredibly obvious sarcasm.

Oh. Hence the facepalm. #934 is retracted, with my apologies. I was skimming the latest posts as a break from writing something else, and admittedly, the second comment stuck out to me and I guess I read it out of context.

That does not change anything preceding 934. Thor is scum...I'm guessing from his insistence that I'm black Mafia that he's black himself. Not gonna stick to my guns on the color though, because I have no effing idea.

[Thor665]

2. Thor the case that one scum-pr flipped therefore Pine is scum is awful, it really is.

I'll concede it's outguessing, but combine it with double Hiders and a mason pair, and how I intrinsically create "mirrors" and I feel pretty solidly on it.

[Duplicity]

I'll concede it's outguessing, but combine it with double Hiders and a mason pair, and how I intrinsically create "mirrors" and I feel pretty solidly on it.

Do you have any reads completly unrelated to setup speculation?

[Thor665]

That would be Ludi. Plus whatever I said Day 1-2 (which was mostly Ludi)
Basically all my town reads are non setup based as well.

If we want to ding reads, I'd note that your lynch preferences are basically two lurkers and Bub. Frankly i think Bub is mislynch bait due to his playstyle, and though I might buy a lurker lynch on just random probability it seems pretty 'meh' to me. I'm amazed you're putting Pine as obv. town. What did I miss? You are aware there are two scum teams, yes?

[Duplicity]

I'm amazed you're putting Pine as obv. town. What did I miss? You are aware there are two scum teams, yes?

1. Meta, he generally attempts to try harder and post more as scum, why he's a bit carefree as town as he has been throughout this game.

2.A) His claim, mafia faking a claim such as his would be incredibly dangerous given the two scumteams, it increases the likelyhood he gets shot reducing his scumteams numbers; This is because the other scumteam would view him as Town PR/Mafia PR, both being good shots.

2.B) He claimed stating he had information on you, information that would be incredibly for the scumteam to get their hands on (Knowing a role visits three people), why would he share that information with everyone, when he could keep it secret amongst themselves.

3.A) His interaction with Farside throughout day two makes it literally impossible for him to redscum, I think you can agree on this as well.

3.B) His interaction with Gollum makes me doubt their potential partners, especially in this post.

[Thor665]

1. Mmmm
2A. farside did it though, so clearly scum would do this. Why is it good for the goose but not the gander?
2B. All you really show here is that he's probably not scumbuddies with me.
3A. I have explicitly stated that I believe this as well as implied.
3B. And yet you list Bub as scum, and even Pine credits Bub for catching Gollum's slip. I personally see that as scum realizing his partner is busted, not as town brilliantly hunting scum.

[Regfan]

1. Mmmm
2A. farside did it though, so clearly scum would do this. Why is it good for the goose but not the gander?
2B. All you really show here is that he's probably not scumbuddies with me.
3A. I have explicitly stated that I believe this as well as implied.
3B. And yet you list Bub as scum, and even Pine credits Bub for catching Gollum's slip. I personally see that as scum realizing his partner is busted, not as town brilliantly hunting scum.

1. Mmmm
2A. Just because one person plays suboptimally doesn't mean that it's any more likely that someone else will.
2B. Fair enough.
3A. K.
3B. If he was attempting to 'buss his busted partner' why did he show hesitation when Farside claimed the result the following day? The post reads more like he geninuely believes that Gollum slipped, then hesitated over someone claiming a slightly-similar role to his.

[Duplicity]

For ISO purposes:

1. Mmmm
2A. farside did it though, so clearly scum would do this. Why is it good for the goose but not the gander?
2B. All you really show here is that he's probably not scumbuddies with me.
3A. I have explicitly stated that I believe this as well as implied.
3B. And yet you list Bub as scum, and even Pine credits Bub for catching Gollum's slip. I personally see that as scum realizing his partner is busted, not as town brilliantly hunting scum.

1. Mmmm
2A. Just because one person plays suboptimally doesn't mean that it's any more likely that someone else will.
2B. Fair enough.
3A. K.
3B. If he was attempting to 'buss his busted partner' why did he show hesitation when Farside claimed the result the following day? The post reads more like he geninuely believes that Gollum slipped, then hesitated over someone claiming a slightly-similar role to his.

[Pine]

1. Mmmm
2A. farside did it though, so clearly scum would do this. Why is it good for the goose but not the gander?
2B. All you really show here is that he's probably not scumbuddies with me.
3A. I have explicitly stated that I believe this as well as implied.
3B. And yet you list Bub as scum, and even Pine credits Bub for catching Gollum's slip. I personally see that as scum realizing his partner is busted, not as town brilliantly hunting scum.

^Most of this post is predicated on the presumption of me as scum. It isn't evidence, it's speculation about motives. The Town motives are just as, in fact more, plausible. Plausibility != proof, though you're trying your damnedest to make it so.

Also, it's established meta that I don't bus my partners unless there's a compelling reason to do it, and Gollum's lynch was

far

from certain when I got in on it. I wasn't even 100% convinced of it at that point, but was thinking that pressure would bring out the truth. Lo! and behold; it did.

[flinter]

Just an observation: On this moment the ludi wagon is quite supported by many, but there are only two people voting it. Depending on if ludi flips, and what he flips, this might be a good thing to analyse tomorrow.

@Furc

, the italics are my reasons.

vote: pine

if pine is scum I want to move after nocmen next
I am voting pine for his obvious OMGUS

This snippet is making me suspect Furc.

I don't get the pine case

, he seems mostly too enthousiastic to me, but regardless of that on this point

OMGUS is a very weird reason to vote with. People avoid OMGUS like the plague. That, and how furc actually comments more on where he wants to go next then his vote. This is a classic bandwagon vote.

Quite simply: there is a wagon for different reasons, and you jump on it on a very odd and weak basis, after which you neglect the wagon and start looking into the future.

But first:
We have the explanation for Thor's triple targetting dilemma. He's a neighborizer, with the ability to make neighbors whoever the hell he wants.

Night 1 he neighborized Ctorj and pappums because he defected on his night deadline.

Night 2 he neighborized us, himself, and Cecily.
Both Mastin and I find him a good choice for scum at this point, for various reasons. He is NOT black scum because of interactions with Gollum + Pine.
This information obviously makes Ctorj black scum since Redscum Thor would not out him in that way.

Like, really? The green part. Thor has been quite active throughout the game, he doesn’t seem to be the player to forget his night action. Do you

know

this, or were you told by Thor?

As for Ctorj, I’m not quite sure how he fits in all this. Where did Thor out him?

But I do agree with you. Thor is very insistent on the Pine lynch, and doing that just based on Pine's claim is odd, esspecially when he started based on setup speculation. Moreover, in his later posts, he doesn't say anymore that Pine is the black mirror to Farside, so I'm wondering what his basis actually is.

[Thor665]

Like, really? The green part. Thor has been quite active throughout the game, he doesn’t seem to be the player to forget his night action. Do you

know

this, or were you told by Thor?

I told him this.
Ctorj also confirmed my targets - so now you can either believe it was randomized or that I specifically chose to neighbor those two players for some purpose.

Moreover, in his later posts, he doesn't say anymore that Pine is the black mirror to Farside, so I'm wondering what his basis actually is.

I am honestly starting to become freaking annoyed at this, I'm going to say it again.
I HAVE BEEN CALLING PINE SCUM BECAUSE OF BELIEF THAT BOTH SCUM TEAMS HAVE A TRACKER TYPE ROLE - SO **OBVIO-FRICKIN'-LUTELY** I'VE BEEN CALLING HIM BLACK SCUM THIS ENTIRE TIME BECAUSE MY ENTIRE CASE IS PREDICATED ON HIM BEING THE BLACK OPPOSITE TO RED SCUM FARSIDE

Sweet mother of mercy, do I honestly need to say - "Hey guys, let's lynch Pine (he's Black scum by the way) because I think he scum (Black) due to my setup speculation (which indicates his color is black)." everytime I talk about him? Because I can do that. Also, I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to discuss scumtells towards Pine that don't involve the mirror aspect tell I'm pushing, so I shouldn't need to bring up farside every time I discuss Pine.

@Pine (who is black scum0 yes, my case is predicated on belief you are scum (Black) I don't know why this is odd. All scum cases (black and red for that matter) tend to be predicated on a belief that someone is scum (and in your case - I believe it to be black scum). So...yes...I believe you are scum (black).

@Duplicity - I do not believe farside's (red) play was intrinsically bad. If you believe that than I suppose I can accept you're less clear on my belief of Pinescum (black scum, at that). I would submit his "hesitation" was because he was playing up his counter track/watch claim against farside (who was red scum, which supports my belief that Pine is black scum, fyi).