NY129-Mafia on Werewolf Island! (Game Over)

[Chronopie]

So as I read it:

Gorilla claims Cop.
Mastin cc's Cop.
spamposting ensues.

--

Probability say that we started the game with no more than 6 scum (+SK)

-Jindori ww
-T-Bone mafia, Nacho mafia

7 - 2 - 1

--


If scum were to cc a real cop, who then gets lynched, they get killed the next day. Basic Logic.

Given the probable numbers, cc'ing a cop now would be suicide, possibly factional suicide.

Therefore Mastin is HIGHLY unlikely to be scum.

Far more likely to be scum, in any given claim/cc scenario, is the first to claim. Anyone disagree?

VOTE: Gorilla

[gorilla]

I have an unusual investigation for night 4 I wouldn't claim as scum.

WIFOM

That's WIFOM? How about mastin's "I would never kill the people who suspect me as scum"? Isn't that WIFOM? Look at the more likely answers here - scum want to be seen as being credible. As scum I would not claim something incredible, not even to make this argument. It damages my chances of being believed greatly. mastin claims he would not kill people suspicious of them because that would draw suspicion to him, but on the contrary, the loudest opposition to him has now been silenced and people are siding with him readily. These are the simplest possible explanations here, and they are the truth.

[gorilla]

So as I read it:

Gorilla claims Cop.
Mastin cc's Cop.
spamposting ensues.

--

Probability say that we started the game with no more than 6 scum (+SK)

-Jindori ww
-T-Bone mafia, Nacho mafia

7 - 2 - 1

--


If scum were to cc a real cop, who then gets lynched, they get killed the next day. Basic Logic.

Given the probable numbers, cc'ing a cop now would be suicide, possibly factional suicide.

Therefore Mastin is HIGHLY unlikely to be scum.

Far more likely to be scum, in any given claim/cc scenario, is the first to claim. Anyone disagree?

VOTE: Gorilla

Chronopie, I explained it. mastin wants to force town to a kingmaker scenario. 4-2-1, then 2-1-1. Your logic is even worse than that of conspiracy and reckamonic.

[ConSpiracy]

last mafia? Don't know, think singer is a likely pick at this point. powerrox is mastin's scumbuddy, though. like 99%.

I am being useful, I am trying to convince two very stubborn and foolish players that I am town, but they are being rude and not giving me the time of day. If you actually stopped to reason here and think about this, you might realize you are coming to the wrong conclusion but you are voting without thinking. mastin is scum and I'll do whatever it takes to prove it.

*Sigh*
I will give you one post. It has to be well structured and complete to have me read it.

Reckamonic. Which PR could even out the Roleblocker?

[DemonHybrid]

@DemonHybridIs the scum wincon to have majority or to not be able to be taken down?

Not sure he'll answer, but that would play a part in proper play assuming you flip town.

I can't answer that. Sorry.

VOTE COUNT

Day 5 Vote Count (#7)

gorilla - 3 (mastin2, ConSpiracy, Chronopie)
mastin2 - 1 (gorilla)

Not voting - 6 (Reckamonic, singersigner, MrZepher, tclawren, Powerrox93, Charlie)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch and 5 to No Lynch. Deadline is June 10th at 11:00 AM EDT.

[gorilla]

how about making a case?

I'll make a case for mastinscum, but I need some time. I know you're like dead set on me being scum but unvote and I'll prove myself to you. While I'm at it, I'll prove his scumbuddy, too. I'll take a shot at the mafia, too, but it's much harder for me to guess them right now (It's always easiest to find the scum when they're bearing down hard on you).

conspiracy, thank you for giving me a chance. If I have to meet mastin on his own terms and write an essay, I'll do it. Like I said, just give me a little time.

Anyone else: ask me anything, I'll answer it later. This will be my last reply before I bring out my cases for the last remaining scum. I have been completely straightforward this game, have never done anything scum-motivated. Even if you think I'm 100% mafia, please hold off on voting, I don't want scum to jump on my lynch before I get a chance to plead my case.

[Reckamonic]

I have an unusual investigation for night 4 I wouldn't claim as scum.

WIFOM

That's WIFOM? How about mastin's "I would never kill the people who suspect me as scum"? Isn't that WIFOM? Look at the more likely answers here - scum want to be seen as being credible. As scum I would not claim something incredible, not even to make this argument. It damages my chances of being believed greatly. mastin claims he would not kill people suspicious of them because that would draw suspicion to him, but on the contrary, the loudest opposition to him has now been silenced and people are siding with him readily. These are the simplest possible explanations here, and they are the truth.

If you're town, the lone scum will shoot mastin tonight, simply because he can't win otherwise.
If he gets blocked we won't be in kingmaker.
If he doesn't we won't be in kingmaker.

Your argumentation is flawed, as is your Appeal to Fear.

[gorilla]

My assumption is that you can get endgamed. You seem to assume the opposite. That's all there is to it.

[Reckamonic]

You assume tomorrow will be 4-2-1.
If you're town, that is completely implausible.

[ConSpiracy]

Reckamonic, once again.
Which PR evens up a scum RB?

[gorilla]

You assume tomorrow will be 4-2-1.
If you're town, that is completely implausible.

Why is it implausible? Are you saying last mafia doesn't avoid killing mastin? If so, I guess I don't feel that bad about getting lynched but I have the sinking feeling they won't. If you're confident mafia shoot mastin when I flip town then that's fine.

sorry for posting more, I just want to clear this up

[ConSpiracy]

Uuhm, Reck, gorilla does have a point.
The remaining maf wouldn't be that stupid to not kill the last scum.
That is a free lynch the next day.

[DemonHybrid]

Locked for a moment. Hold up.

[DemonHybrid]

Flavor

Hours pass as deliberation continued once again. Tensions were so high that you didn't notice the brewing storm that was approaching outside. As people stood in the main lodge, one person tried to lead the pack. A young rookie cop, gorilla, came to this island for an easy, well paying job as sheriff of the area. It seemed to be an easy enough job; he figured that a lot of crime didn't happen where people were vacationing and having a good time. Maybe some petty theft and larceny, but definitely not any tortures, rapes or murders. This seemed to be a little too much for him, however. He started to panic, and the other vacationers started to accuse him of being one of the murderers. They surround him and push him out into the rain. Suddenly, he snaps.

"I worked WAY TOO HARD being a good person to do ANY of this! Do I REALLY look like a murderer to you people? IF I'M A MURDERER, MAY GOD STRIKE ME DOWN. That's right, I bet my life on it!!!!"

Suddenly, a lightning strike touches down to where gorilla is standing. Everyone screams and turns away at the flash. 20 seconds later, it becomes silent but the pitter-patter of the rain outside. You and the rest of the vacationers slowly turn around...

...and find him dead on the ground, burned from head to toe with a twisted look upon his face. You all panic and run out into your respective huts. You are NOT going to deal with this issue with the weather like this.

gorilla has brought it to my attention that he used hidden tags in post #2149 with information vital to the game. For his honesty, I will not be blacklisting him, but I will be modkilling him for breaking rule #5. I'm at the gym, so flavor and color tags will come later but I wanted to nip this in the bud.

gorilla,

Town Cop

turned

Neutral Survivor

, has been modkilled Day 5.

Consider the quicktopic(s) open until I get back. It is now Night 5. Deadline for night actions will be Monday, May 23rd at 9:00 PM EDT.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm getting some concerns about the modkill.

This was the post in question, quoted:

you were already voting him, nice try though

at this point I don't mind if the hammer is dropped anyway - don't feel like waiting for tclawren to get prodded and then show up to pick up on his prod.

[color#000000]P[/color]robably [color#000000]g[/color]oing to die [color#000000]o[/color]vernight.
If I do, players I'd say that you ought to look at are powerrox, singersinger, and chronopie.

Equals signs were omitted so that the HTML doesn't trip in this post. I hope that clears things up.

[DemonHybrid]

Flavor

During the night, the storm dies down. It finally stops when morning arrives. Though it's still gray and dark out, there's no more rain and more importantly, no more thunder and lightning. You decide to get an early start and move gorilla's body to sea. As you arrive at the lodge, you can't believe your eyes.

Not only is gorilla's charred body still lying in front of the main door to the lodge, but so is Charlie's, the local fisherman. It's soaked from head to toe from the rain. You can plainly tell that Charlie has been shot in the face as well. As the dwindling number of vacationers come out to meet you, they take a look at the two bodies and sigh. They help you drag the two bodies out to the ocean and toss them in.

You end up sitting around a campfire for most of the day, silently deliberating.

Charlie was shot in the face Night 5. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 4 to No Lynch. Deadline is Monday, June 13th at 9:00 PM EDT.

[DemonHybrid]

VOTE COUNT

Day 6 Vote Count (#1)

Not voting - 8 (Everyone)

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 4 to No Lynch. Deadline is June 13th at 9:00 PM EDT.

[Chronopie]

Vote: Mastin

It came down to him vs. Gorilla yesterday on a claim/cc on cop, and gorilla was the cop. Therefore most plausable conclusion is Mastin = Scum.

[Reckamonic]

I told Gorilla it'd work out fine.
See? Was right!

Vote: Mastin

[Reckamonic]

Singer suddenly appears much townier <_<

[Reckamonic]

Strange fact: The werewolves failed their kill. I seriously expected the MAFIA to fail, not the wolves 0-o

Unvote

Theories?

[Reckamonic]

Wait, it's 5 to lynch anyways

vote: Mastin

[Reckamonic]

If it's 4 mafia 4 wolves we lost, barring crosskill hell during the next 2 nights.

[Chronopie]

Here's a list of theories: Roleblocked / Werewolf-Doc protect / Commuter/Hider / Failed to send in kill. Feel free to add if you think of anything else...

I I don't think it's 4/4.

Balance wise that would have been a shitfest from the start.

[Reckamonic]

commuter-hider could be an option. Failed to submit the kill with two wolves alive would be pathetic. At the very least Mastin is most likely there.
roleblocker/doc im not so sure about with the JK being there.

Regardless it doesn't really matter, Mastin needs rope and if it's 3-3 tomorrow will be at the very worst 3-1-1 (or 3-1, if scum decides to kill me )