NY129-Mafia on Werewolf Island! (Game Over)

[Powerrox93]

Slaxx replaces tclawren. A big round of applause to him ^^

*Applause*

I've been busy recently, will be caught up with what I've missed after school

[Slaxx]

Ohai. Will catch up ASAP gimme time currently on phone until I get power back.

[mastin2]

Alright. Got the time. I'm going to start working, again. *cracks wrists*

See you in the morning.

(Yeah, that's probably how long it'll take me to finish it, working all night on it. If I got done by 4 am [10:11 right now], I'd consider myself lucky. )

[mastin2]

And, I'm kinda cursing right now. I was thinking at first, "Oh, hey, Slaxx modded a game with me in it; he should be able to better read me and conclude I'm town when he compares me to my play in his game!"

...Then I remembered I was playing as a hydra and he didn't get to see my thoughts at all. >_<

I never left Page Two, by the way. I believe it was either 33 or 36 where I left off, but I read the whole page of C-worl vs RF to see if the general trend I was noticing (that it didn't seem town-on-town) would continue.

If that makes sense.

[mastin2]

Just got to page three, meaning I FINALLY got done with Page Two. My case is a little over three screenwidths long, currently.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

Despite working on it for around 75% of the time I've been awake (blasted distractions >_<), I'm still only on page three. It's, uh, a long page? It contains lots of stuff on RF, lots of good scummy things, but me being the horrible-at-explaining-things guy I am, I'm having extreme trouble getting the right words into my head. (Unlike with most of my gut-stuff, this is things which I know to be more clear, where I know EXACTLY what's making me suspicious, and WHY, but lack the words to describe it. Forcing me to describe it as "gut" because I have no words for it, despite the fact that it's not really gut; it's just something which has no words coming to mind.

If that makes sense. :/)

Unfortunately, I'm dead-tired. (What do you expect, for 4 am in the morning without an ounce of sleep? )

While incoherent Mastin can sometimes be hilarious to watch speak, I'm not exactly very productive when I'm this tired. My apologies. I really wanted to get done tonight, but it looks like I can't. :/

[Powerrox93]

Don't have time to look deeper into the meta mastin's talking about. He uses to much meta-related reasons.

mastin: Your talk about "I wouldn't take this risk as scum", with your other scummy things in mind, screams WIFOMing scum for me

[Slaxx]

I'm reading the last 10 pages....

Trying to figure out why Mastin hasn't been hung yet...

[Slaxx]

But before I decide can I get a list of claims somewhere?

[Powerrox93]

Slaxx
This is what I remembered from players alive

Reckamonic - PGO
tclawren (now you)- Neighbor
Mastin2 - Cop, later to be changed to Doc

[Powerrox93]

And from dead player's

RaudhrGarm: Bulletproof compulsiv vig
T-Bone: JOAT
C-Worl: VT
gorilla: Cop
Pine: VT
Kise: Vig

[Slaxx]

Oh wow have we not mass claimed yet?

[Reckamonic]

We're in some weird form of pseudo-LyLo with claimed scum, Massclaim can wait an extra day.

[Slaxx]

Okay well I am going to wait for Mastin to put up what he needs to but I'm pretty firm on lynching him. Risky gambit as doc is risky.

[Slaxx]

My main qualm with Mastin's claim is if he had thought about it for a bit, he would have realized that having a Seer but not a cop would make the werewolves way less powerful than mafia and throw the game off balance unless werewolves had weaker roles or less people, but I see it being far more likely the teams are evenly balanced. So saying he didn't think there was a cop is silly, and something I doubt someone as analytical as Mastin would have conveniently missed. Also, him switching his claim to doc today makes the cop claim even more unbelievable. My guess is this either really is a gambit from Mastin or a kill got roleblocked last night and he is taking advantage of the situation. Either way its the rope for him.

[Slaxx]

When I say a gambit, I mean he was anti-town and decided to no kill and claim doc.

[MrZepher]

My main qualm with Mastin's claim is if he had thought about it for a bit,

he would have realized that having a Seer but not a cop would make the werewolves way less powerful than mafia and throw the game off balance

unless werewolves had weaker roles or less people, but I see it being far more likely the teams are evenly balanced. So saying he didn't think there was a cop is silly, and something I doubt someone as analytical as Mastin would have conveniently missed. Also, him switching his claim to doc today makes the cop claim even more unbelievable. My guess is this either really is a gambit from Mastin or a kill got roleblocked last night and he is taking advantage of the situation. Either way its the rope for him.

I thought about the seer being killed, but I didn't think about that.

Yeah, I'm okay with a Mastin lynch now.
I want to see his case first though.

[mastin2]

Power: You're not thinking the way you need to. Think of my motivation. What scum motivation is there for my actions?

None.

What town motivation is there fore my actions?

Plenty.

That aint WIFOM. That's plain simple reasoning.

Spoiler: On Gambiting

Risky gambit as doc is risky.

Dude.

YOU'RE TALKING TO THE GUY WHO SACRIFICED HIS MAIN ACCOUNT ON A GAMBIT.

Specifically, in There Will Be Bloodshed, to protect a strong townread--Pine--from getting lynched, I took a gambit: I said, essentially, "If Pine is scum, I am permanently retiring from the name Mastin." Pine was being lynched at the time. That gambit completely halted his lynch, permanently. (Pine was scum, so I had to switch to mastin2.)

Same exact situation here, only reversal in my read:

To ensure a strong scum read got lynched, I took a gambit. Gorilla looked like he was going to get away with it and not be lynched. My gambit ensured he was going to be lynched.

You're also talking to the guy who self-voted to prevent a town-read of his from getting lynched in a previous game. (Mean Mod Mafia, a game hosted by Battle Mage.)

And the guy who has historically been taking risks.

Yes.

Risky gambit is risky.

THAT'S JUST WHAT I DO.

So, knowing that I gambit--a lot--it's not unreasonable to say it's pretty much null for me to do so. (Regrettably. I'd love for it to be a town-tell, but I remember having gambited once or twice as scum in the past. Took a horrendously bad one in Boost Mafia 2, for instance.)

What you need to do is not look at the dang gambit itself.

You need to look at the FREAKIN MOTIVATION for the gambit. This is my level of scumhunting. I look at the motivation behind the post. And it works pretty well.

What scum motivation do I have for COUNTERCLAIMING A ROLE WHICH

IS OF

NO THREAT TO ME, AND IN FACT ACTUALLY

BENEFITS

MY TEAM?!?

(I have multiple times explained to you how Gorilla alive only helps the wolves. Gorilla couldn't catch the wolves with his investigation, and his results would most likely pseudo-clear a wolf if investigated. It'd also help the town Mafia-Hunt which takes their mind off of Wolf Hunting. In other words, optimal wolf play would've been to keep Gorilla alive.)

I have none.

What motivation do I have for counterclaiming someone I think is fakeclaiming scum?

That sentence pretty much gives you the answer itself: plenty, as I wasn't letting him get away with a fakeclaim. (It, uh, wasn't, but I THOUGHT it was. )

Spoiler: Cop Stuff

My main qualm with Mastin's claim is if he had thought about it for a bit, he would have realized that having a Seer but not a cop would make the werewolves way less powerful than mafia and throw the game off balance unless werewolves had weaker roles or less people, but I see it being far more likely the teams are evenly balanced.

What. No, seriously, What? You're making no sense, here. This is the INVERSE of the truth. Having a Seer but not a cop would make the wolves less powerful only IF the wolves were of the same strength of the Mafia. And I think they're stronger than the Mafia. ('Least, I thought they were at the time.) This is evident by the fact that we as a town haven't managed to lynch a single wolf whereas we've had two mafia die. For there to be a Seer and not a cop, it merely requires stronger roles. Not weaker ones.

It makes perfect sense to me. Wolves woulda still had all three members alive, if not for the modkill. Mafia haven't. Is that just really a difference in skill? Bad luck for the mafia? Bad play for the mafia? Or is it because the wolves maybe have an edge?

See where I'm going with this? Of course, now I know that I was probably wrong, but I believed it at the time. It made sense to me. This is just the way I think. With the play I had seen thusfar in the game, I concluded that the wolves couldn't have simply just played better and been more lucky than the mafia. They had a member of their team modkilled, creating links to them; shouldn't it have been EASIER to find the wolves, not the Mafia?

Also, think of the setup name:

Mafia on WEREWOLF Island. The Mafia are invaders, weaker than the Defenders, the Natives, the Wolves. It makes perfect sense for there to be a Seer to combat the local dominant threat on the island. It makes less sense for there to be a Cop coincidentally appearing at the same time the Mafia do.

It all falls into place if you think of it like that. A Seer to counteract the stronger wolves, no cop to counteract the weaker mafia.

So saying he didn't think there was a cop is silly, and something I doubt someone as analytical as Mastin would have conveniently missed.

Conveniently missed? Dude. It's BECAUSE I'm analytical that I CONCLUDED there was no Cop! That's not an assumption you make without thinking things through a lot. Most people would probably assume automatically that there was a cop. I thought things through, and concluded that there wasn't. See the above ramble about the subject?

Which is more likely: that I'm scum, who really did know there was a Cop in the game, Counterclaimed KNOWING that there was a cop in the game, knowing that I'd get lynched the day after that, and when I realized I was screwed, thought of an elaborate explanation as to why I thought there was no cop, which I know is very doubtful to actually work...

...Or that I'm town, who concluded there was no Cop through the above logic, counterclaimed someone I thought was fakeclaiming, and honestly thought Gorilla would flip Wolf?

When I say a gambit, I mean he was anti-town and decided to no kill and claim doc.

See my meta.

I don't No-Kill.

Ever.

Doing so is against my wincon.

Let's say I went against my established "no No-Killing" meta, just for a sec for the sake of a gambit.
I now have to convince my scumpartner that we should sacrifice our kill for a gambit which has a less than 5% chance of success.

I explained this in great detail in one of my posts. That's the summary of it, though.

I want to see his case first though.

About to work on it. But you know what I said earlier. I would ignore my scumreads, unless the town was starting to be convinced by them.

The town's starting to be convinced by them.

I had to make this post to once again show you the reasons I'm town which so many are conveniently ignoring.

People are nitpicking all the finer little details which "don't add up" to them, ignoring the grander, larger picture which paints the picture that I am town. They're ignoring anything which contradicts with their view "Mastin is Scum" when I have had multiple points which have never been countered, and even the ones which HAVE been countered I then re-countered and proved why they were still valid, something everything is ignoring.

[Powerrox93]

And mastin, there is one thing I forgot to say earlier

-Aggressive scumhunting.

In one game I was in, one scum superscumhunted in order to get towncred form it. That argument doesn't work at all

P-Edit: Still very sure you're WIFOMing scum mastin

[MrZepher]

I think people are just skimming your posts to be honest.
Apparently I am.

Ugh. Just hurry up with your case mastin ._.

[Slaxx]

Lol. Or wolves just have better players. Also the seer died night 1 before he got to catch mafia whereas the cop caught one. That's easily explained. And much more realistic and parsimonious than thinking one team is way more powered just because there isn't an investigative role that targets them (especially now that one for each faction has flipped). I'm not buying it. Also, zePher, if you didn't notice the balance issue either wouldn't you be sympathizing with Mastin instead of admonishing doubt? Feels almost like am excuse to bus but that will wait until later. Mastin will flip wolf.

[Slaxx]

I meant more powerful wolve roles with only a seer. I think you're missing my point anyway.

[mastin2]

In one game I was in, one scum superscumhunted in order to get towncred form it. That argument doesn't work at all

You're taking it out of context, that's why.

Aggressive scumhunting in a single-faction game is a null tell. Everyone knows that. (Or should. )

Aggressive scumhunting in a MULTI-faction game, however, is a town-tell, because the other scum faction would fear your skill and nightkill you if you're pushing them too hard. Look at Nacho's play.

Nacho's normally hyper-aggressive as town. In this game, he was a huge lurker. That goes beyond him having been scum. He can fake being hyper-aggressive as scum; I've witnessed it before.

It was an intentional choice by Nacho. The reason why is obvious to anyone who knows anything about multi-faction games: you don't want to be crosskilled, and if you look like the voice of reason--something scum normally love to do--then you're at SERIOUS risk of being NK'd by the opposite team.

I bet if I looked at T-Bone's play, I'd see the same thing, too. ('Least, 'til his last day. )

Compare to some of the other players. C-worl, for instance. Pine I suppose could be another. Maybe Kise as well. Plenty off the top of my head.

They were all town, and pushed hard. And they mostly paid the price for it via being NK'd.

Compare that to me--definitely the hyperagressive mold.

Compare me to most of the rest in here. Heck, scratch that, compare me to everyone who is alive.

You'll note that I have pushed harder, been far more forceful, than anyone alive.

Though not anyone dead. Plenty of NKs happened for that reason. I've played with Thor, before, so it wouldn't surprise me if a wolf who had also done that before killed Thor simply to stop him from hyperactively scumhunting because he woulda essentially taken control of the game.

That's why it's a towntell: because it gets you killed, and the scum don't want to be killed.

P-Edit: Still very sure you're WIFOMing scum mastin

Because you're not thinking about it.

Put yourself in my shoes. Do it, for just a second. First, put yourself in my shoes, thinking like scum.

Why would you counterclaim the cop, who is only going to benefit your faction?

Now, put yourself in my shoes, thinking like town.

Why would you counterclaim the cop, who you think is fakeclaiming?

That's not WIFOM.

Nobody has answered my question with anything other than "WIFOM." Because they can't. They can't think of a single reason. Not even an incredibly stretched, farfetched reason! For why I would do it as scum. So, they label it as "WIFOM" because they don't have a way to counter the defense more logically.

[Slaxx]

Also it's not a gambit. There's a mafia roleblocker and mastin got roleblocked. Gorilla claimed to have been roleblocked when he tried to investigate the PGO. See no reason for dead cop to lie. I'm like 95% sure that's what happened. Mastin failed to kill and then decided to claim doc. That is why he keeps saying he wouldn't gambit like this. He didn't intend for the no kill to happen.

[mastin2]

Also the seer died night 1 before he got to catch mafia whereas the cop caught one.

Well, I know that, NOW, but I thought he was fakeclaiming at the time.

And much more realistic and parsimonious than thinking one team is way more powered just because there isn't an investigative role that targets them (especially now that one for each faction has flipped).

I have no clue what you are saying.

I'm not buying it.

Because you're tunneling. You of all people should know that I think differently than most.

Really. How come it's so hard for you guys to believe that a guy who thinks in an ABNORMAL way made an UNUSUAL conclusion?

Because you don't think I think differently? That's something I'd never fake, nor could I. That goes deeper than meta. That's my very personality, who I am, what I live and breathe in every single post I make, everywhere.

So, it can't be because you think I don't have that different wavelength of thought.

What, then, makes it so hard to believe?

"Because it seems so logical?"

To you, sure. But to me? No. To me, having a Cop in the game just didn't feel right, not with all of what I had seen so far pointing to there being none.

I think you're missing my point anyway.

Did I not say, "I don't understand."?

Of course I'm missing your point, because I'm flat-out not understanding it. I really have no clue what you were saying, because it made no sense to me.

Ugh. Just hurry up with your case mastin ._.

You realize my case is already as long as my longest defense, despite the fact that I'm only 1/33rd of the way done, right?

If you've been skimming my posts, then you're not going to read the case.

Read all my posts--spend the time actually listening rather than letting the words go in one ear and right out the other. I know, it takes forever. But you've been concluding I've been scum...for reasons I've multiple times explained why are wrong. If you spent the time actually reading everything I said, you'd realize that I really don't have it in me to fake this level of play as scum. You'd realize that there's no POSSIBLE way I'm a wolf.

Speaking of which. There's been at least three people who've shown interest in Zepher being my scumpartner (which is wrong because I'm not scum ), and Zepher's counter to this is that I might be scum with ConSpiracy.

Other than my play today (clearing Zepher, going after ConSpiracy), tell me, what makes those my scumbuddies?

It doesn't add up.

What makes me scumbuddies with anyone?

Nothing makes sense to me. I simply don't see how--other than today--there has been any reason to suggest I'm scum with anyone else.

I've been riding solo for a long time.