Neon Genesis Evangelion Mafia (Game Over)
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Iecerint Survivor
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I doubt Kast==Ritsuko is the scum inventor. If Kast is scum, Ritsuko is a fakeclaim. I do not know of any Angels for whom inventor is a plausible role, and Keel was probably the SEELE representative.-
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vollkan The Interrogator
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Having four players entangled with one another was confusing the hell out of me, so I spent some time going through every scenario.
Lynch of Kast
Result: Scum
Implications:
CJ: Depends on whether Kast flips as a scummifier (in which case, obviously P(CJ-scum) skyrockets) or, as GI as just suggested, something else like a scum inventor, in which case it is null.
SX: More likely town no matter what Kast's role (because if CJ was recruited, he is more likely to be lying, and if Kast is a scum dud inventor, then it is possible SX is being framed or something)
Stevie: I don't really know what to make of Stevie in any scenario that follows, other than that there is somewhat of a inverse correlation between Stevie's and SX's alignments (ie. Stevie-town makes SX-scum more likely, and vice-versa)
Result: Town
Implications:
CJ: Obviously less likely to be scum than before, though the flavour means that there are still good grounds for concerns about possible recruitment
SX: More likely scum, but qualified to the extent that the flavour creates cause for doubt over CJ and, thus, the claimed investigation result
Stevie: See above
Lynch of CJ
Result: Scum
Implications:
Kast: CJ was a mason; Kast targeted CJ; CJ became scum. It follows that Kast is more likely scum than otherwise.
SX: MUCH more likely to be town, the only exception being a gambit by CJ to claim guilty on a partner
Stevie: See above
Result: Town
Implications:
Kast: Conversely to the above, Kast becomes more likely town here.
SX: MUCH more likely to be scum
Stevie: See above
Lynch of SX
Result: Scum
Implications:
CJ: MUCH more likely to be town (absent gambitting)
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely town, Kast is more likely town (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above
Result: Town
Implications:
CJ: MUCH more likely to be scum
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely scum, Kast is more likely scum (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above
Lynch of Stevie
Result: Scum
Implications:
See above
Lynch of Stevie
Result: Town
Implications:
See above
So what have we learned?
It's basically a direct chain of probability in either direction, with the reliability of the implications diminishing the further you move away from any given player.
Red = SCUM-SCUM
Green = SCUM-TOWN
Kast<---------------------------->CJ<---------->Spyrex<------------------------------------------------------------------->Stevie
Stevie's separation from Spyrex is longer than every other one to represent the fact that any information about or derived from Stevie is much less reliable than information about anybody else. Similarly, because I think recruitment/non-recruitment of CJ is more likely than an inventor role, I think the link of CJ-SX is stronger (and thus shorter) than the link of CJ-Kast.
This means that Stevie is the most useless lynch. However, with his score, and thinking he is also the one I am most confident of individually being scum.
SX and CJ are roughly equivalent in terms of usefulness, though CJ's mason status makes me inherently favour SX's lynch over his.
I don't see lynching Kast as particularly helpful, since I don't buy the case on him and a Kast scumflip wouldn't confirm CJ as scum.
SOOO, it's either SX or Stevie. Since I think Stevie is more likely scum at this point, it follows that his lynch should come first and any talk of lynchng SX should be postponed unless and until furter information comes to light
Unvote, Vote: Stevie-
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ZeL1nK Goon
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vollkan The Interrogator
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ZeL1nK wrote:I could get behind a stevie lynch. He claimed a scum ability.
The only issue I have with that is that this Spyrex/Kast/CJ issue needs to be resolved one way or the other at some point, and delaying that with double stevie lynches seems pointless.
True. The double-lynch factor makes the information-value of a Stevie lynch lower, at least in the immediate term. I'm not sure that outweighs the fact that he is the most likely scum; though, nothing is really clear-cut in this sort of situation.-
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Kdub Mafia Scum
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Day 2 - Vote Count #5
Amrun (0)-
Kawaii (0)-
GreyICE (0)-
Antifinity (0)-
Candle Jack (0)-
populartajo (0)-
Iecerint (0)-
Nocmen (0)-
Surye (0)-
Celebloki (0)-
Starbuck (0)-
ace5993 (0)-
drewoftherushes (0)-
ZeL1nK (0)-
StevieT92 (2)- Lady Lambdadelta, vollkan
GhostWriter (0)-
SpyreX (9)- StevieT92, Candle Jack, Pomegranate, SpyreX, GreyICE, Nocmen, populartajo, drewoftherushes, LobsterCatapult
Kast (0)-
vollkan (0)-
Pomegranate (0)-
LobsterCatapult (0)-
Lady Lambdadelta (0)-
No Lynch (0)-
Not Voting (11)- Amrun, Kawaii, Antifinity, Iecerint, Surye, Celebloki, Starbuck, ace5993, ZeL1nK, GhostWriter, Kast
22 votes available, 12 votes needed to lynch
Deadline is July 30, ~ 11 pm PDTStar Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Mafia - 17-player large theme, currently needs (0) replacements-
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Lady Lambdadelta She/FaerRise of the PhoenixShe/Faer
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@Mod: Prod/Replace Kawaii please?Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.
13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,click here.
If you wish tospeak to one of us, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra, Airna, Fiadh and Laoise.
Soar on wings of retribution and set the world ablaze-
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Candle Jack Goon
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Lobster wrote:but perhaps not fabricated by stevie, but the scum team used their ability on him.
What ability are you talking about here like it is a fact?
Lobster wrote:only thing that i think is weird is the one shot unlynchable....hmm...last time i played a game with a governor it ended up pretty wonky. idk ill have to think about all this.
Can you explain what is 'weird' and what happened that made the game 'wonky'? Keep in mind, this isn't a governor role, rather a one shot self reviver with no alignment flip until the second death (!)
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Iecerint, why aren't you voting SpyreX/(anyone)?
~~~
The problem with lynching anyone else is, for one, that we have gotten a result saying SpyreX is an angel, and besides (lolframing!) which actually may be possible, SpyreX has defended himself by saying, 'kill me now as town, before I become scum!!!' which is a horrible defense because he is saying not to kill him because he isn't scum,... YET.
'defense'
SpyreX wrote:I could be infected and that could be what spawned all this.
However, AS OF RIGHT NOW, I am townYou said my name?-
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Candle Jack Goon
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Zelinki1 wrote:I could get behind a stevie lynch. He claimed a scum ability.
The only issue I have with that is that this Spyrex/Kast/CJ issue needs to be resolved one way or the other at some point, and delaying that with double stevie lynches seems pointless
Not Voting (11)- Amrun, Kawaii, Antifinity, Iecerint, Surye, Celebloki, Starbuck, ace5993,ZeL1nK,GhostWriter, Kast
????
(Also, I don't understand your stevie position, if you think he is scum, you're going to have to do just that to kill him, so no sense weeping over it)You said my name?-
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Kdub Mafia Scum
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Lady Lambdadelta wrote:@Mod: Prod/Replace Kawaii please?
Kise informed me during N1 that he wished to remain in the game. If he or his other head doesn't contribute soon, I will force-replace them.Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Mafia - 17-player large theme, currently needs (0) replacements-
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drewoftherushes Goon
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vollkan wrote:
Stevie is the most useless lynch.
Volkan - This is great analysis of the situation, and a horrible conclusion. Lynching Stevie will likely not give us either an alignment or a dead player. I know he has the highest score on your board, but surely you can see that we need to figure out what's going on with the Kast/CJ/Spyrex thing before we can do anything about Stevie.
And I agree that Stevie is scummy looking, and needs to answer the questions being asked of him, but I really think we need to lynch CJ or Spyrex (I think Spyrex) today-
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Iecerint Survivor
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I'm waiting for SX to answer my question.-
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Celebloki He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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GhostWriter He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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Kast tl;dr
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Kast tl;dr
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So:Spoiler: Catchup thoughts
-I'd like to hear (I guess from CJ) whether any other supercomputers want to reveal themselves or whether I should just submit a best guess.
AND
VOTE: SpyrexShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
V/LA Pretty much all Weekends and Holidays-
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populartajo Alpaca Caliente
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LobsterCatapult Goon
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Candle Jack wrote:Lobster wrote:but perhaps not fabricated by stevie, but the scum team used their ability on him.
What ability are you talking about here like it is a fact?
Lobster wrote:only thing that i think is weird is the one shot unlynchable....hmm...last time i played a game with a governor it ended up pretty wonky. idk ill have to think about all this.
Can you explain what is 'weird' and what happened that made the game 'wonky'? Keep in mind, this isn't a governor role, rather a one shot self reviver with no alignment flip until the second death (!)
LLD said that scum may have a framer ability that made spyrex show up as guilty. however, since your ability is daytime ability, and ive never played a game where a framer ability carried over into the next day, i was saying that if a framer exists, itd be more probable that stevie recieved false information than you since his was recieved at night. this is obviously conditional on LLD's scenario of a framer.
ive never played a game where someone had that sort of ability, and it wasn't a scum-governor deal that saves him from getting lynched. thats all i was saying was i was somewhat debating in my head if this mod used that kind of set up [because the governor in the last game i played threw off the balance severly and made it really wonky] and stevie was in fact scum, lying about his role, and has a scumbuddy 1 shot governor or something that would save him if he got lynched. however, i understand that they are different (stevie's claimed role, and a governor) and so i think my point is invalid.ÔÇ£IÔÇÖll do what I can to help yÔÇÖall. But, the gameÔÇÖs out there, and itÔÇÖs play or get played. That simpleÔÇØ ÔÇô Omar
~LC-
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Kast tl;dr
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@Tajo-
My ability should have given him a PM telling him he has been upgraded and that he has the 1-Shot Day Cop. It should not have saidwhogave it to him. I get no notification whether the ability is a success or not.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
M: 8/2/1
O: 0/3.5/0
V/LA Pretty much all Weekends and Holidays-
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Lady Lambdadelta She/FaerRise of the PhoenixShe/Faer
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I'm overheated, sick and tired. I don't have time for your shut Kast.
You either help me lynch Stevie, or I'll let Grey have his way with you.Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.
13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,click here.
If you wish tospeak to one of us, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra, Airna, Fiadh and Laoise.
Soar on wings of retribution and set the world ablaze-
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populartajo Alpaca Caliente
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i fail to see what benefit we get from stevie lynch since I think he is telling the truth regarding his resurrection powers (no flip after lynch) and I want to know TODAY if we are dealing with a cult or not.Call me Tajo.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12894
Coming summer 2010: Tajo's Starcraft Mafia.
Tajo's MagictheGathering Mafia-
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Pomegranate Mafia Scum
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populartajo wrote:i fail to see what benefit we get from stevie lynch since I think he is telling the truth regarding his resurrection powers (no flip after lynch) and I want to know TODAY if we are dealing with a cult or not.
QFTShow"You're a silly Pom. Silly silly girl." -Fate
"I didn't want to use you Pom... I never killed you. I didn't endgame you it was my evil buddies!
Sowwy >_<" -scumFate.
"Pom was on my "I will not kill, and I shall seek vengeance upon the death of them" list." -CSL-
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populartajo Alpaca Caliente
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i also dont get framer paranoia when we have
a) a supposed day investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.
b) a supposed night investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.
I dont know if Im missing anything or not but lynching anyone but Spyrex today seems pretty useless, let alone the stevie lynch that gives zero input on the situation.
BONUS: we get cult confirmation or not.Call me Tajo.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12894
Coming summer 2010: Tajo's Starcraft Mafia.
Tajo's MagictheGathering Mafia-
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GhostWriter He/HimMafia ScumHe/Him
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vollkan The Interrogator
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populartajo wrote:i also dont get framer paranoia when we have
a) a supposed day investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.
b) a supposed night investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.
I dont know if Im missing anything or not but lynching anyone but Spyrex today seems pretty useless, let alone the stevie lynch that gives zero input on the situation.
BONUS: we get cult confirmation or not.
The cult confirmation is a really good point, and wasn't part of my inter-player analysis. Stevie is the most likely scum, but if that means not knowing about the cult for two days, then SX makes more sense.Unvote, Vote: SpyreX-
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populartajo Alpaca Caliente
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