NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[SpyreX]

YEP you've got me. You watch a wagon pop up and the sheeples go a jumpin and I think OHH SNAP SCUM FOUND.

[kanyeknowsbest]

imho youre really reachin here spy. idher is town. and theres definitely scum on the wagon (chair) but i doubt its bookied. if theres a bookie shot in play today then its on me given how quickly i got halfway to lynch, but i doubt even that given how little effort went into keeping the wagon alive. zepher wagon was mega lazy too, and sapo took too long for me to believe it was bookie influenced.

[Chair]

note: i explained why i moved our vote (kanye wagon stalling, no one voting you, idher's reasoning makes sense). To criticize me for not mentioning it in a specific line of my post, especially considering that that line began with "by the way" implying it was unrelated to my vote is reaching.

If you had, idk, said "Chair is sheeping Îdher" and criticized me for that, then sure, that'd be a justifiable attack. But attacking me for what you attacked me for is not. It's plain reaching.

-implosion

i love it every single time chair dismisses and sidesteps valid points and claims "youre not allowed to do that or use that reasoning."

GUYS I REALLY WANT TO LYNCH CHAIR

I did not sidestep the point; I explained why it was wrong, explained why the attack was reaching, and

then

dismissed it.

-implosion

[Yosarian2]

...

Why on earth would you think she's actually

town

?

-Ether

I dislike that she's basically been lurking lately, and she really hasn't said that much all game. She needs to post more, absolutly. That being said, the few content-posts she did make, especally on day 1, look town-ish to me.

Ethos seems to leap to conclusions they don't really need to be making. I don't agree with their initial logic for town reads (oversoul is town because of HA HA IDHER WAGON, parabollocks is town because he voted for Ythan (?) then switched to someone we found scummy (Kanye) with no other reason than "THIS IS MY REAL READ) at all and I think they tend to leap to conclusions. However, I can buy their claim that they make absolute statements based upon faint suspicions and that they aren't explaining their thought process to us completely, but that there is a genuine thought process going on. Furthermore, I think they have made an adequate attempt to explain the seeming inconsistencies in their logic. Though I still feel like they make a lot of statements that seem just plain wrong, their behavior just does not seem scummy to me. They do not seem to be flailing at the attacks against them, just responding in a frustrated manner to an antagonistic (yet townie town town) Ythan.

Yosarian also steps up the game quite a bit from where parabollocks left off.

I'm going to take a look at Kanye in a bit.

She carefully, and in a thoughtful and intelligent way, explains why she thinks that Ethos and Ythan are probably both town, and she avoids the wagon on me.

I like this post a lot:

I think Ythan is obvtown, but someone or the other on this Ethos wagon is scum. And that someone is being terribly opportunistic. IIRC, people who piled on that Ethos dealie later included Hikari, Spyrex, KoC (though he changed it to Parabollocks), and Empking. So Empking, why are you voting for Ethos now?

And then she voted empking a few posts later, which scared him enough to fake-claim vig.

I wouldn't say that I have a *strong* town read on her, but I'm leaning town-ish on her. I do want to hear from her who her suspects are today.

[xRECKONERx]

Chair (3): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2
kanyeknowsbest (1): saporovirus
MrZepher (2): Yosarian2, Magister Ludi
saporovirus (5): kunkstar7, Îdher, MrZepher, Chair, Oversoul

Not voting:

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to lynch.
MrZepher is V/LA until July 17th.
Chair is V/LA for two weeks (I will replace the slot at my discretion).
mastin2 is V/LA until July 22nd.
Prodding kunkstar7, Yosarian2, saporovirus, and kanyeknowsbest.
Deadline is in (expired on 2011-07-19 23:00:00).

[xRECKONERx]

saporovirus has requested replacement.

[Îdher]

...

Somebody hammer.

-Ether

[Magister Ludi]

No.

I'm way less convinced now about saporo's scumminess than when I intially replaced in. I like mr.zepher even more.

~~~

Idher, can you give me your reads on chair and mastin2, please? Explanation would be liked but is not needed.

[SpyreX]

imho youre really reachin here spy. idher is town. and theres definitely scum on the wagon (chair) but i doubt its bookied. if theres a bookie shot in play today then its on me given how quickly i got halfway to lynch, but i doubt even that given how little effort went into keeping the wagon alive. zepher wagon was mega lazy too, and sapo took too long for me to believe it was bookie influenced.

Part of it is the way Chair is playing towards Idher would make me blush.

Part of it is chair being scum and being absolutely willing to leap there.

Part of it is both of them singing the same song about Empking.

[Îdher]

Town/town.

-Ether

[Magister Ludi]

And you think zepher is town too.

hmm, Do you think kunkstar is town as well?

~~~

[Îdher]

Most likely, but that's less because of his own behavior and more because he's voting the chick I've concluded separately is scum. I think I've been fairly clear on who I do and don't suspect.

-Ether

[Magister Ludi]

Well, Its useful to try and bounce reads off of somebody in order to
a. determine their alignment
b. figure out things from another point of view so I don't get stuck tunneling.

And though you think you may have been clear, I was asking to determine what you thought right now about those players.

Also,

a. Where is Amrun?
b. How many scum do you expect on a day one lynch in general in a large normal game?

[Îdher]

And is stuff actually getting determined?

a. I think she's an east coaster. Pennsylvania?
b. Votecount analysis is a waste of time, and the people who think they see something in it are only seeing basic statistics. (In a vacuum, these statistics would imply 2 in a 17-player game with 4 scum, but I wouldn't be find any number above 0 to be particularly strange.) This is a theory debate I am absolutely not willing to have.

-Ether

[kunkstar7]

Somebody hammer.

There is no way anyone besides Sapo or Chair is going to get lynched. So Yos and Ludi, pick one of the two that you think is more scummier and move there. Hopefully its to hammer Sapo, but I won't begrudge you a Chair hammer if you can put him there. At least one here is scum, with the other being a real strong contender, if both are not. So I'm willing to lynch either.

[Îdher]

I for one will begrudge you a Chair hammer. This is one of those times when Yosarian needs to sheep.

-Ether

[Oversoul]

I don't like Spyrex trying to push people back on the Chair wagon it feels a little bit like a booky.

Also, Amrun's father had a heart attack recently so she said her commitment to MafiaScum would be spotty at best.

[Magister Ludi]

Oh ok, Amrun doesn't at all need to post here (can't believe I forgot that)

Idher, the only reason I bring that up is because you've called the entire day one wagon on untrod town except for one person (Knight of Cydonia), and I know for a fact that that person is town as well. Its not a theory debate at all.

I'll be more eloquent in the morning, but suffice to say I'm not wholy behind your own towniness anymore, and thus not behind you and mrzepher and your wagon.

~~~
"There is no way anyone besides Sapo or Chair is going to get lynched."

Kunkstar, why do you think this?

[kunkstar7]

Because they are the two best candidates for scum right now, with any third option being so far behind that its wasting your time to try pushing it, so stop stalling. Sapo is obvious from Empking interactions and Chair, well Spy can elaborate on that. I think Spy's point about Chair jumping on Sapo's wagon could be a lot better when we have sapo's flip, so another reason to hammer sapo.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I'll join a Chair wagon. I have about zero town tells from that hydra all game, which is reason enough.

unvote

Vote:Chair

That being said, Zepher is still scum.

[Chair]

Sigh... looking at votes, we're probably going to be lynched (ludi has indicated that he'd support our wagon over saporo's, and saporo's replacement... well, self-explanatory).

All I can say is: if the vig has another shot, shoot spyrex. If there wind up being two kills that would have come from scum tonight (that is, if we were bookied, which I doubt but it isn't impossible) then SpyreX and kanye should both be dead by two days from now.

saporovirus has been active elsewhere, then suddenly AWOLs for 5 days then requests replacement. I don't see why she hasn't been hammered yet, except that we're going to be lynched as a stupid compromise wagon.

Îdher, mastin and yos are all town. Oversoul is almost definitely town. Zepher is town too. If there's scum on saporo's wagon, it's probably kunkstar. Spyrex is scum. kanye is probably scum, although I'm not as certain at this point as i am about spyrex. saporo is also probably scum. ludi is my least confident read right now, but he's probably town.

-implosion

[MrZepher]

Checking back in.
Will /realpost later.

[Magister Ludi]

ludi has indicated that he'd support our wagon over saporo's, and saporo's replacement... well, self-explanatory

huh, where did I say this? I said I didn't like saporos wagon growing so fast (and other things), but thats about it.

[Chair]

Ludi: you indicated disinterest in saporo's wagon in 1182 and 1192. You haven't actually talked about us recently, so i suppose you haven't actually. A question then - which wagon do you support over the other if forced to pick between the two? Based on the way votes are being laid out, you have the hammer between me and saporovirus('s replacement). No other wagons have any steam at this point.

-implosion

[SpyreX]

I'll play along:

If I'm scum and there's bookie shots left why in the hell would you think you weren't bookied?