NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Amrun]

Deadline is extended indefinitely until I can fill up the damn game. I have no offers so far. You all have exhausted my replacement list.

[Iecerint]

I did this to organize my thoughts:

Town
Iec
Mastin
Meransiel
MBL
PJ
Hydra
ToastyToast

Hmm
Pine
CTD
Yos
Shanba

Scum
DemonHybrid
saporovirus
Parama

[mastin2]

I did this to organize my thoughts:

Town
Iec
Mastin
Meransiel
MBL
PJ
Hydra
ToastyToast

Hmm

Pine

CTD

Yos
Shanba

Scum

DemonHybrid

saporovirus
Parama

That's pretty much my list, too. Only, I modified it. Underlined-->leaning town. Strike-->ready to call town. Italicized-->TECHNICALLY scum, but could be Honorary Town if they shoot right. (SK.)

[DemonHybrid]

?

You are doing better, so thank you for that = you are SCUMHUNTING better, so thank you for that.

Mastin, I don't want to call you dumb. I really don't, but you're making it rather hard.

[Iecerint]

What exactly about Mastin's recent posting is dumb? Paramascum? DHSK? Combinations?

[DemonHybrid]

Chalking a compliment up to an "SK slip".

[Iecerint]

His point is that his "new scumhunting improvement" has consisted of wanting to kill Parama, but you have a curious history with Parama, so it's unusual that blindly calling for Parama's death would give you good feelings.

[DemonHybrid]

I was talking about #849, actually.

[DemonHybrid]

Even so, complimenting his picking up on the scumhunting doesn't mean that I agree with his views.

Iecerint, why are you indecisive about shanba and yosarian?

[Iecerint]

HMMMMMM ok. 849 was indeed a good post (the post about wiggle words from Yos).

With Yos, I'm ambivalent. I had a townread on him yesterday, but I agree with Meransiel about the strange switch that happened.

With Shanba, I'm indifferent. I haven't had strong feelings about the slot all game.

[Meransiel]

Well, I...actually still lean town on Yos.

[Iecerint]

I thought you posted something about the rolefishing flip-flop, and then he had a bunch of walls that I didn't read that he claimed explained why doing the exact opposite of what you used to do is normal and not suspicious, etc.?

Well, whatever. I agreed with whoever pointed it out.

[CrashTextDummie]

Read up to page 22 (D1 lynch). Thoughts:

Meransiel

is still on top of my scumlist. He was early on the AGM wagon and his reasoning for being there was absolutely terrible, as were some of his follow-up posts:

Yeah...he didn't facefuck as much as Sensfan in the Hydra thing, but...

But reading his ISO I realized just how low the chance of Mafia in the neighborhood would be if AGM would flip scum. So yeah, great info.

Vote: AGM

@Almaster: I explained why I have a null read on you, and why I have a town read on Yos.

I am voting a null read because it's not so null anymore, but that's not the main reason. I have come to buy the AGM case more recently, but as I said, the most important thing is that AGM's flip is extremely informative. This is a Large, so that's not the most suboptimal compromise ever.

Seriously, why wasn't he lynched? This on top of the stuff I've outlined in my last post, and it doesn't get much scummier.

-----------------

My opinion of

Yosarian2

didn't improve either. He was first on the AGM lynch, and used some terrible logic on the way.

The difference is, is that you are jumping to conclusions for no apparent reason, which is scummy since there's a possible scum motive for doing so and no obvious reason a townie would jump to that conclusion, while I am simply not coming to any conclusion on the subject without information.

His whole argument against AGM went roughly like this:
1. "I think it's likely the whole neighborhood is town since none of them seem suspicious to me."
2. "Scum are therefore likely to suggest there is one scum in the neighborhood."
3. "AGM is therefore scum."

It's

all

based on Yos2 jumping to conclusions. His attack feels very disingenuous.

He finished the day with this nice little damned if you do/damned if you don't:
AGM is scum for suggesting one scum amidst the (all-town, according to Yos) neighborhood, i.e. trying to secure a chain of lynches, but AGM is also scum for not pushing any of those lynches. Yos presents this as AGM "having it both ways", when it's actually Yos that's having it both ways. AGMs position was completely internally consistent while Yos' argument was not. Strong scum contender.

-----------------

DemonHybrid

has been a double-edged sword for the second half of D1. On one hand, he had a pretty decent string of analysis posts, which sounded reasonable enough to me from a pro-town perspective. On the other hand, he then refused to join the AGM wagon because of perceived opportunism among his wagoners, only to then jump on himself in opportunistic fashion.

------------------

All three of these players were on the AGM lynch. I'll eat my hat if not

at least

one of {Meransiel, Yosarian2, DemonHybrid} is scum.

------------------

My

PJnoia

continues. I may not have agreed with his case against Parama, but at least it started making more sense. On the other hand, I didn't like the extent of his tunneling. Egging on the AGM-wagon didn't help either. He's certainly not a top suspect at this point, but a suspect he is.

------------------

Hydra

remains my strongest town read. He was second on the AGM wagon, but that's the only blemish on his D1 play, and his reasoning for being there made sense to me. Almost everything about him screams town to me.

------------------

I used to be able to not only read PJ like a book, but MBL as well. He's changed up his posting habits some since he went on hiatus, but judging by Oldy Mafia, my meta on him is still valid. His post 487 strongly suggests MBL-town. Not only is it a much, much better argument than for example Yos', but it's also based on a legitimate piece of scumhunting and presented in a way that fits with his town-play. Remind me to look back at this post when I inevitably grow paranoid of him later on as I always do. My first impression of him has always proven to been right.

------------------

Parama

was mostly useless for the latter half of D1, and his MoI attack was terrible. And while his indignant attitude and expressions of boredom and laziness are stuff I've seen utilized by scum before, I still lean town on him, although I have to admit this has a lot to do with my read on DemonHybrid. I'll keep an eye on it.

------------------

earshot

seems reasonably inquisitive and interested in reading people. Judging players based on the quality of their cases against one of his town reads is... unorthodox, but I'll allow it as a legitimate means to scumhunt. He was on the AGM-wagon, but his placement there didn't really ring any alarm bells. Leaning town.

------------------

The rest of the players didn't really catch my interest one way or the other, but since this marks the end of D1, I feel compelled to write something about them for completeness' sake:

SnowWhite was a complete no-show, and

Mastin2

joined too late in the proceedings to get any real read on. Judgement is out for the time being.

I have few notes on

Icerint

in spite of his acceptable level of participation. I may have to reread him in ISO when I'm done.

saporovirus

is playing a very low-key game. About 10 contest-posts over the entirety of D1, and short ones at that. There's nothing in his play I found terribly objectionable (including his hammer), but his volume is borderline. No verdict.

Shanba

had even less posts of worth, and his AGM vote comes with a faint whiff of opportunism. But seeing how scummy some of his wagon buddies are, it doesn't worry me

too

much. Not terribly interesting.

I kind of ignored

kondi2424

since everyone treated him like a non-issue. For the record, I don't buy the "townslip" as clear evidence of his alignment. I might reread him in ISO when I'm up to speed.

[CrashTextDummie]

tldr: scumlist as of end of D1:

scum:
Meransiel
Yos2
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
PJ

grey glob of goo:
Mastin2
Icerint
saporovirus
Shanba
kondi2424

leaning town:
earworm
Parama

town:
Hydra
MBL

3rd and final part of Analysis coming up.

[Hydra]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Please do. We're tearing out our manly beards over here.

Mastin, be quiet and start scumhunting outside of reciting annoying song lyrics.

This seems to be an odd and incorrect thing to call out Mastin2 on, considering he has done a fair bit of speculating on who he thinks is scum and town. And whats the point of trying to browbeat confirmed town?

~~~
Yos, I know its rather minor, but why do you have Meransiel listed as tracker :

Meransiel Tracker

, but iecerint listed as nothing:

Iecerint:

14. Shanba*: No real problem with his play.

I know you're a big fan of hunting lurkers, why is it that you don't seem to have a problem with the minamilist style of posting Shanba is taking here, and why does this actually make him seem town to you? I'm not feeling the warm cozy glow.

actually no
Requesting Replacement

get someone else in here who actually cares about this game

what is this I don't even...

Slow game is slow. Pretty mad that Parama is replacing.
I'm really concerned with sappo's play since arriving here, and as such I find yosarian's read on her (good D2, bad D1) really odd.

Well, it would help if you, you know, actually tried to propel this discussion forward. What are you current reads, who are your top two choices for scum. Why are you mad that parama is replacing out? (what do you mean by odd, can you clarify?) Also, you browbeat saporo a little, but your vote is on CrashTextDummie?

(CTD obviously likes manly beards!)

~~~~~~~

Is saporo being replaced in this game too? I have a bunch of pertinent questions that still need answering from her, and She replaced out of another game in large normal.

[mastin2]

Yeah.

Individually.

Parama-Sapo-Yos2-Shanba just seems so...

right

.

As a scumteam.

I really need to stop slacking off and see about that. (Individual scumminess catches far fewer scum than condemning interactions.)

[Meransiel]

CrashTestDummie's way of not reading most current pages looks very townish. Though I will ignore the content of his posts (if you ask, yes, I read them).

[mastin2]

CrashTestDummie's way of not reading most current pages looks very townish. Though I will ignore the content of his posts (if you ask, yes, I read them).

^Pretty much that.

[Iecerint]

I think saporo is more likely to lurk under the present circumstances as scum.

[Amrun]

VC2.9

(1) DemonHybrid - Hrezs
(0) Pine
(0) mastin2
(0) Iecerint
(2) saporovirus - Shanba, Iecerint
(6) Parama - mastin2, Hydra, Yosarian2, Meransiel, MrBuddyLee, petroleumjelly
(1) CrashTextDummie - ToastyToast
(0) Meransiel
(0) MrBuddyLee
(1) petroleumjelly - Parama
(0) Yosarian2
(1) Shanba - DemonHybrid
(0) Hydra
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Pine, saporovirus

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

V/LA: DemonHybrid, petroleumjelly, mastin2

Deadline: ?

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - mastin2 > unvote
Pine
mastin2 - Parama
Iecerint - mastin2 > unvote > Parama > unvote > saporovirus
saporovirus - mastin2 > Parama > unvote > CrashTextDummie > saporovirus
Parama - mastin2 > unvote > Petroleumjelly
CrashTextDummie - DemonHybrid
Meransiel - mastin2 > unvote > Parama
MrBuddyLee - Parama
petroleumjelly - mastin2 > unvote > DemonHybrid > Parama > Yosarian2 > CrashTextDummie > Hydra > Parama
Yosarian2 - Parama
Shanba - saporovirus
Hydra - Parama
ToastyToast - CrashTextDummie

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

Seeking replacements for saporovirus AND Parama ... still.

Prodding Pine and MrBuddyLee.

[Iecerint]

Is the votecount correct re: votes for saporovirus?

[Amrun]

As far as I know, yes.

[Iecerint]

Then it looks like either Shanba or myself is votestolen.

[Amrun]

Oh, no. I'm an idiot. Fixing now.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I know its rather minor, but why do you have Meransiel listed as tracker :

Meransiel Tracker

, but iecerint listed as nothing:

Iecerint:

I already mentioned this, but yeah, I forgot to jot down Iecerint's roleclaim in that post. I wasn't thinking about it when I was re-reading day 1, and I forgot to add it later. (shrug) Dosn't really matter, I thought he was town anyway.

14. Shanba*: No real problem with his play.

I know you're a big fan of hunting lurkers, why is it that you don't seem to have a problem with the minamilist style of posting Shanba is taking here, and why does this actually make him seem town to you? I'm not feeling the warm cozy glow.

Eh. I normally do like hunting lurkers, but I think Shanba is likely to be town here. I just explained my town read on him a few posts ago.

On a side note, it's kind of bizzare for people to attack me for using "weasel words" or whatever you want to call it in my summery. I went through and gave my opinion on ever player in the game. Of COURSE I'm going to be wishy washy or only have weak reads on a lot of them; if someone has a strong read on every player in the game on day 2, they're probably scum.