NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Amrun]

VC2.11

(1) DemonHybrid - CrashTextDummie
(0) Pine
(0) mastin2
(0) Iecerint
(1) Killerjester - Iecerint
(5) Bowser - mastin2, Hydra, Yosarian2, Meransiel, MrBuddyLee
(1) CrashTextDummie - ToastyToast
(0) Meransiel
(0) MrBuddyLee
(1) petroleumjelly - Bowser
(1) Yosarian2 - petroleumjelly, Shanba
(1) Shanba - DemonHybrid
(0) Hydra
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Pine, killerjester

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

V/LA: DemonHybrid, mastin2, CrashTextDummie

Deadline: Saturday, July 25th, 11:30pm EST

Extended by request.

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - mastin2 > unvote
Pine
mastin2 - Parama
Iecerint - mastin2 > unvote > Parama > unvote > saporovirus
Killerjester - mastin2 > Parama > unvote > CrashTextDummie >unvote
Bowser - mastin2 > unvote > Petroleumjelly
CrashTextDummie - DemonHybrid
Meransiel - mastin2 > unvote > Parama
MrBuddyLee - Parama
petroleumjelly - mastin2 > unvote > DemonHybrid > Parama > Yosarian2 > CrashTextDummie > Hydra > Parama > Yosarian2
Yosarian2 - Parama
Shanba - saporovirus > Yosarian2
Hydra - Parama
ToastyToast - CrashTextDummie

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

[DemonHybrid]

CTD, your argument against me has a lot of flaws. Pointing them out in a moment.

Nothing's going on in the QT. I asked him about his Yos suspicion and he hasn't responded directly.

[DemonHybrid]

DemonHybrid is the third guy that made an impression on my scumdar so far. I agree with MoI's assessment of his conduct towards kondi. I also thought his reasoning for his stance on Panama was inconsistent. He went from:

DH in #112 wrote:
I'd be voting for Parama right now were it not for the fact that he was so willing to out the 3 of us.

to

DH in #118 wrote:
I don't know. I have no reason to vote Parama right now whatsoever. He hasn't been remotely scummy.

in a very short period of time. The two quotes don't add up in my opinion.

There's other things minor things about him that rubbed me the wrong way, but this analysis is already getting long and I still have a lot to read. He's not at the top of the list at this point, but one player I'll keep a close eye on as I read on.

I said I would be voting Parama, but instead I voted kondi early game. Parama looked townish off the bat since he was willing to out the 3 of us, kondi did not. I'm okay with early game neighbor pressure, as evidenced with Parama and I's pressure against kondi.

Lets recap:

Game starts. Kondi doesn't say a word, I would have voted Parama. Parama outs us; I vote Kondi, for being scummy in the QT as well as neighbor pressure.

Basically, I have never once found Parama as outwardly scummy. Bowser's impromptu suspicion of Yos is weird, though, so I'm keeping an eye on that.

DemonHybrid has been a double-edged sword for the second half of D1. On one hand, he had a pretty decent string of analysis posts, which sounded reasonable enough to me from a pro-town perspective. On the other hand, he then refused to join the AGM wagon because of perceived opportunism among his wagoners, only to then jump on himself in opportunistic fashion.

And AGM's scummy posting in between those two posts has nothing to do with anything?

At last, a read I still feel confident in. DemonHybrid is still scum. PJ was right on the money calling him skittish. After that, he had a dramatic drop in activity and now spends most of his energy quabbling with a confirmed innocent. His last post strikes me as very odd, considering he not so long ago unambiguously declared that playerslot town and Mastin's whole case against Parama bunk.

What do you mean by "my last post"? Point it out.

I was also V/LA. I check up on threads and saw mastin's annoying singing, so I reminded him to get his ass into gear and scumhunt. I also expressed my Shanba suspicion. That's really all I had the capacity to do, seeing as how I was in Columbus for a week running from hotel room to hotel room on a droid 2.

[DemonHybrid]

*Game starts. IF Kondi hadn't said a word...

[DemonHybrid]

I dont know exactly why my posts bled town in oldy mafia and not in this game. If I had to guess, though, it would probably be a combination of me being super open and explaining all my thought process in and being really passionate about a couple of issues in that game. Regardless of my alignment, people say I'm looking town when I'm doing these things.

This game I've not been super involved in. I made a few bait posts - the attacks on saporovirus - that no one picked up on. I wanted saporovirus or at least someone to question me about those votes, but I got nothing. Instead, this was her response:

Yeah kinda thought it was a bad gambit. I had visions of him claiming townie, though, and me desperately trying to convince people that he was just dumb and not scum and I'm so glad that at the very least he appears to be confirmable. Lets lynch saporo now plzkthx.

Don't do that!

I feel like a townie would have picked me up on that and pushed me, at least to know my reasons - particularly given my relative inactivity the day before. Instead it looks like she's assessing the threat potential and seeing it near zero, just needs to fob it off rather than risk getting into a debate with me. I think this response was scummy.

I pressured iecerint for a wishy washy stance on saporovirus. He took ages to respond and basically only did so when saporo asked him. I'm not too willing to follow this thread up tbh.

When yos and pj got into their big catfight thing I honestly couldn't be bothered to check everything out and minutely assess each individual point. However, I found it super strange that Yos was saying things like

So, before you got onto this weird attack on me, your main suspects were apparently 2 of the neighbors. (Parama was also your main suspect at the end of day 1).

And yet, even though they're your main suspects, you're so worried about protecting whatever hypothetical power roles the neighbors might have that you think it's bad to want them to claim, even when a *TRACKER* implies he wants them to claim?

Really having trouble buying this, PJ.

Mostly because he was saying these things without followup. He was passively reacting to PJ's case, defending the accusations against him, then adding some little bits and pieces that amount to a "Pj this attack is scummy!" That stunk of misdirection. If yos honestly thought this was scummy, why wasn't he going on the offensive? I called him on it, and he posted without responding. Then when I pressed the issue again, he backed off. That sits really awkwardly with me - particularly as the backing off occurred after pj stopped going after him. It's a natural reaction to being attacked to see the guy attacking you as scummy, but the way yos2 went about it - his statements looked more like

threats

than accusations - makes me really suspicious.

Shanba, why didn't you say that earlier? It feels like you're last-minute white knighting him.

MBL specifically asked me about Parama at that time. It's not totally out of the blue, either - I was against the original semi-wagon that appeared on parama after he voted MoI.

Parama really looks like he just lost interest in the game. I dont think that's scummy or townie either way. The whole "I'm catching up" thing may be classic active lurking, but it's

not

what scum do when already under pressure, as Parama was. When you think you're getting lynched, like in parama's situation, you try and defuse it by giving them words - even if the words are not considered or consistent or whatever. Promises to catch up dont placate mobs.

I have a vaguely townies read on PJ. My only recent experience with his play is modding frogs mafia 2 where he acted as something of a wrecking ball, going after one unfortunate townie after another. In particular, the way he attacked yosarian, reconsidered and then attacked him again reminds me of the long one-sided aim monologues he would send me about his thoughts on various players, which were frequently punctuated by sudden bouts of doubt. I dunno though. I think if he were scum, it would be way easier to just follow through the parama wagon to a lynch. I never liked the mastin wagon, but pj voting him was completely expected - when PJ spots someone doing something stupid, his first thought it

never

"is this a gambit". He caught Mastin in a lie and he voted him. Completely typical PJ. The exasperated response on Mastin revealing what was going on was also typical.

MBL: When I'm scum, I try to play as similarly to when I'm town as possible. In general, I think my mood has more of an impact on my

style

of play than my alignment does. There are specifics - I'm less likely to pay close attention to detail as scum, my opinions are more likely to have out and out falsehoods in them (born of laziness), I'm more likely to lurk as scum and I'm more likely to complain about the game as scum. Essentially, I like playing scum less and am therefore less likely to get involved with the game.

Oldies had that terribly obvious day 1 mislynch which allowed me to get my dander up. More people responded to my baiting posts and allowed me to explain the thought processes.

Unvote vote Yosarian2

Obvious bus

[DemonHybrid]

Shanba is scum. Also, notice how he doesn't have an opinion on Yos until a wagon starts on him. Then he just throws his vote on top of the rabble.

Bowser, you really need to pick your ass up and give us that explanation. The longer you stall, the longer I don't like you.

[mastin2]

Why when I skimmed this did I get the distinct impression it was bussing Sapo and Yos2?

Oh, right.

Since the deadline's no longer on my birthday, that means when I get back I'll be able to better confirm my reads.
I tend to write cases which look overall pretty good when I stop slacking off. (I just hate doing them. >_<)

[Meransiel]

Shanba is scum. .

I'm glad you guys agree.

Unfortunately I will be

V/La for 6 days, starting tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

I said I would be voting Parama, but instead I voted kondi early game. Parama looked townish off the bat since he was willing to out the 3 of us, kondi did not. I'm okay with early game neighbor pressure, as evidenced with Parama and I's pressure against kondi.

Lets recap:

Game starts. Kondi doesn't say a word, I would have voted Parama. Parama outs us; I vote Kondi, for being scummy in the QT as well as neighbor pressure.

Basically, I have never once found Parama as outwardly scummy.

It's a subtle inconsistency. The first quote heavily implies that you were a proponent of the "there's one scum among the neighborhood" line of thinking and upon kondi's "townslip" would have voted Parama immediately if he hadn't convinced you of his innocence.

The second quote demonstrates a different mindset: "Parama hasn't done anything scummy, so why would I want to vote him?"

It's not a huge strike against you but a decent enough tell for early D1.

And AGM's scummy posting in between those two posts has nothing to do with anything?

AGM's so-called "scummy posting" in between has everything to do with this. The timeline went like this:

DemonHybrid: "AGM is scummy but I don't like the opportunistic feel of his wagon" (post 430)
AGM: "I'm having trouble getting into this game, so let's start it off with a lurker vote" (post 443)
DemonHybrid: "ZOMG scum! I checked SnowWhite's site activity and she's not lurking at all! You're so busted!" (posts 444, 445, 448)

AGM's post that set you off was lazy at worst. There is no scummy intent (not that you even tried to demonstrate any). Your vote is a textbook example of opportunism, you jumped him at the drop of a dime over nothing serious at all.

Bowser's impromptu suspicion of Yos is weird, though, so I'm keeping an eye on that.

What do you mean by "my last post"? Point it out.

Bowser is ostensibly in the process of reading the game. There's nothing weird or "impromptu" about giving us an idea on where he stands in his read-through. It's a perfectly normal post to make.

I'm usually not one to make arguments for other people, but this is beyond stupid and reeks of confirmation bias on Mastin's part. It reeks of something else on your part.

----------------------

Please give us more details on your quick topic. Parama apparently posted analysis in it, was it the one he eventually posted in-thread as he wrote it? Did it feel to you like it was genuine and consistent as he posted it? What have ToastyToast's contributions to the quicktopic been? Bowser's? It feels to me like your reads of each other are largely governed by the fact that you are neighbors, but I can't follow the though process of any neighbor in this matter.

[Yosarian2]

Why when I skimmed this did I get the distinct impression it was bussing Sapo and Yos2?

Probably because you have a ridiculous conspiracy theory that has no basis for it and no logic behind it at all, and it's coloring all of your perceptions of the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Leaning scummy: CrashTextDummies, DemonHybrid (note: DH is probably town if para is scum, although mastin’s theory is cute), petroleumjelly

Scum: Parama

I actually changed my mind again, BECAUSE of the way PJ started attacking me again I changed my mind again and decided he was probably town after all

I don't really see why DH is scummy, for the most part. He's made some weird posts, but he hasn't been nearly as anti-town as Parama.

@Yos

, what changed in your mind about DH between Saturday and yesterday? You had him leaning scummy but then said you don't see why he's scummy. Was the change evidence-driven?

If you boost DH and PJ into your town category, who do you find scummy at this point besides Parama and Hrez?


Also, do you think CTD is scummy for his push on you? Here, you accuse him of inaccuracy, but then you seem to talk to him as if he's a townie as opposed to accusing him of scummy misrepresentation.

There isn't any "jumping to conclusions" in my argument at all, CTD. Yes, i was wrong about AGM, and that sucks. Pro-town people are wrong about 50%-70% of the time on day 1, learn to deal with the fact.

[Yosarian2]

MBL: Nothing specifically changed my my mind about DH. I guess I'm mostly assuming at this point that parama is scum and that therefore DH is probably town. As for DH himself; eh, he's borderline.

I realize that I've been kind of all over the place to day in my suspicions. When I'm as wrong as I was day 1 of this game, I'm often doubting myself and going back and fourth on everything the next day. I don't really have a lot of confidence in most of my own reads at this point. I'm mostly just hoping that we lynch a scum today, and that once we get one scum caught, that everything starts to make more sense.

As for CTD and Hrez; Hrez was on my borderline scummy list, mostly through process of elimination. CTD's case on me is pretty null; IMHO, he could be making this case as either alignment.

[DemonHybrid]

MBL: Nothing specifically changed my my mind about DH. I guess I'm mostly assuming at this point that parama is scum and that therefore DH is probably town. As for DH himself; eh,

he's borderline.

You really didn't answer his question...

[DemonHybrid]

CTD:

1. There's no "subtle inconsistency" when you're at the beginning of the game throwing votes around without suspicion to start the game. If it was Day 2? Then yeah, you'd have a point. But you don't.
2. Voting Snow White for lurking IS majorly scummy when she posted...what, twice at that point? There was a ton of other material to review and a ton of other things to consider, and AGM picks that. So, he pushed himself into "needing to die" territory with the SW vote. It really wasn't opportunistic at the least and I don't see how you can't see what's wrong about the SW vote.
3. Um, there's a LOT of scum motivation to saying "Yos looks scummy. Explanation later", especially since he's been posting around New York and not this game. How is asking for an explanation for that read scummy? What if Bowser is scum and it's a contrived way to throw on an early bus vote? Can you see how that can be possible?

The QT has been stagnant, but Bowser KNOWS I asked him to explain his read (I asked Toast directly, and he asked me to refer to him as Bowser without answering the question).

Shanba needs to die. Yos is getting close, and Bowser is climbing up since his Yos suspicion post which he STILL has yet to explain. Doesn't take that much time. Those are my scumreads. Perhaps I was fooled by Parama earlier.

[DemonHybrid]

Oh wait, I'm dumb. ToastyToast isn't part of the Bowser hydra, he's kondi's replacement. In that case, Bowser has yet to read the QT.

[killerjester]

I just realized Bowser isn't L-2 anymore! Nothing's changed of my opinion. I still think he's the scummiest. And I want to hear elaboration on his part since catching up with the last few pages.

VOTE: Bowser

PJ, could you clarify this post a little?

To answer your question, though, I was pretty clear when I voted that I think there are a lot of players who are doing pretty much nothing with their vote, and if they're just going to sit there doing nothing, they might as well vote Yosarian2. Do I

honestly

think Yosarian2 will be lynched today? No, I don't. But seeing as I

know

I will be around before deadline and that I can obviously switch my vote to Bowser at pretty much any time to secure a lynch, I do not feel obligated in the slightest to keep my vote just sitting on Bowser.

You unvoted Bowser, but here you say you still find him scummy and ask idle players to pressure Yos2. What exactly are you going for with this?

[Yosarian2]

I mentioned this earlier, but I am going to be V/LA next week, from tomorrow though the 31st.

[petroleumjelly]

PJ, could you clarify this post a little?

To answer your question, though, I was pretty clear when I voted that I think there are a lot of players who are doing pretty much nothing with their vote, and if they're just going to sit there doing nothing, they might as well vote Yosarian2. Do I

honestly

think Yosarian2 will be lynched today? No, I don't. But seeing as I

know

I will be around before deadline and that I can obviously switch my vote to Bowser at pretty much any time to secure a lynch, I do not feel obligated in the slightest to keep my vote just sitting on Bowser.

You unvoted Bowser, but here you say you still find him scummy and ask idle players to pressure Yos2. What exactly are you going for with this?

I prefer two wagons on two suspects over one wagon on one suspect. After all,

if

the Bowser wagon implodes for whatever reason, I would much prefer another of my suspects to be on hand to be lynched without requiring lots of votes at the last second. And even if it doesn't, this is a way to pretty much guarantee that my suspicion of Yosarian2 won't just be swept under a rug if I die overnight.

Furthermore, seeing who decides to mobilize against Yosarian2 or switch off the Bowser wagon without intending to hop back on is something that can be reviewed later in the game.

[petroleumjelly]

Mod:

Just to clarify, the deadline is

Monday

, July 25th, right?

[petroleumjelly]

Anyways, while it's on my mind:

Any full-fledged protective roles should lean towards protecting Iecerint over Meransiel. Numbers ultimately win games, not investigations. And seeing as I think there are pretty much nine players where all the scum are congregated, the more of those players we can kill, the better off we are. I would personally suggest a rough 65% protection of Iecerint, and 35% protection of Meransiel. This is high enough on both counts that the scums should not feel confident killing either player. But there is certainly nothing wrong with being more along the lines of 50%-50%.

Alternatively, since mastin2 is confirmed innocent, you might do something like 60% Iecerint, 30% Meransiel, 10% mastin2. You get the idea.

Also,

just in case

we have two or more protective roles, a weaker protective variant (i.e., not "full-fledged") should go the opposite direction by leaning towards protecting Meransiel. That way,

if

there are two protective roles, this is more likely to result in the two roles coordinating to protect both players on the same night.

And I'll be blunt: the point of this post is more to make sure the scum know that if they intend to kill a claimed power role, they're gonna have to get

really

lucky. So there.

[mastin2]

Quite frankly, I don't think I'm protection-worthy. (Not for lack of scumhunting, mind you.)

Also, I'm beginning to think the more people ask/degrade me for logic/explanation, the more often they're scum.

I've seen, oh, the occasional pro-town player do it recently (and justifiably so), but it seems like more and more, people asking, "why mastin, WHY?!?" are caught scum. Dunno why, it just seems to be what happens a lot. :/

(Referring to

Probably because you have a ridiculous conspiracy theory that has no basis for it and no logic behind it at all, and it's coloring all of your perceptions of the game.

This, of course. It's tripped all of my mental alarms for this subject.)

Now that I'm back from V/LA, I should be able to finally get that read done.

[mastin2]

As has been pointed out, Yosarian2 ignores the votes on Kondi to go for Shanba.

Everyone ignores everyone except Hydra, Kondi, Demon, Parama, and AMG for the first few pages.

Policy lynching is antitown and those who are advocating policy lynches should be policy lynched for it.

Overall, this gives the distinct "active lurking" vibe.

(Also the Hydra wagon is monumentally silly)

Shanba comes to the defense of Hydra, while ignoring other issues of the time. Seems out of place.

Vote: Sensfan for the whole "I'M GONNA PARK MY VOTE HERE" thing on page 2 of a game for an extremely minor sin (if it even is a sin - I could debate theory here, but let it be known I'm somewhat sympathetic to hydra's viewpoint anyway).

Gut's not liking this, either. Might be Tone, might be the vote, I dunno.

(5) Hydra - AlmasterGM, SensFan, Ythan, Parama, DemonHybrid

Half-way to a lynch and the words "all town wagon" do not mix well, for the record. First two there are confirmed town.

Additionally, I'm pretty sure that before this, Kondi got at least four votes, too. (Parama, Demon, Hydra, Sensfan, off the top of my head.) Depending on the exact number, that could be all-town, but still is not very likely.

Anyway, attention after the first few is almost exclusively on Parama and Demon, it feels like. (With a bit of Hydra, too.)

I see no particular reason to assume that one of DH/Thingy are scum. Like, that's classic outguessing the mod - and we dont even have anything else of the setup to speculate with yet, so it's doubly dumb.

This again seems like Active Lurking, and has a scum Tone to it. It also is a blatant Demon defense.

I'm actually somewhat in agreement with kondi that meransiel is rolefishing. Considering the mistake kondi already made, it's not beyond possible that meransiel was looking for kondi to make another mistake. There's very little town reason, too, for the question meransiel asked.

I can't quite pin down what it is in here. Tone, buddying, white knighting kondi, bandwagoning Meransiel, something like that.

AHEM-Mr. Buddy Lee: Asking people to clarify what they mean isn't the same as scum-hunting >_>

Meransiel's fishing is odd.

Again, something in here is off, but I can't pin it down. Tone, exact wording, stance, I dunno, something.

kondi2424 is probably town. The whole "Let's lynch me to confirm the whole group" thing sounds like newbie town.

It's possible the whole neighborhood is town. Neither of them seem especially scummy to me.

I need a good term, for "words which don't take a firm stance and are borderline fencesitting", which is shorter than "WWDTAFSAABF". 'probably', 'sounds', 'possible', 'especially'. You get the idea. It's also parroting, and defending Demon/Parama.

Yosarian also neglects to lay down a vote.

Meransiel wagon to date that germinated solely based on the role-fishing accusation – Shanba, DH, Kondi, Hydra, Petro

If Meran is Town then at least 1 scum jumped on this easy wagon. Role-fishing is one of the easiest accusations to make that seems like a good scum-tell but rarely is.

/Accurate. Kondi's town, Hydra's likely-town, PJ's also likely-town. Leaves Demon and Shanba.

Yosarian jumps to the defense of those players, while simultaneously attacking Meran. And note, no vote.

MoI's viewpoint on Yos2 was valid, essentially.

I'm considering sheeping PJ onto Meren; only problem is that, other then the role fishing thing (with I really want an explanation from Meren about), I don't think the rest of Meren's posting is bad.

1: fencesitting, 2: HE JUST POINTED OUT HOW SCUMMY MERAN'S ROLEFISHING WOULD BE, AND HE DOESN'T THINK IT'S VOTEWORTHY?!?

That whole post gives me the overall feeling of being strategical. Hard to explain--you know, it gives the vibe of, like, deflecting, or some other move like that. And it also has a lot of the type of wording which is, well, WWDTAFSAABF.

This is through Page Seven.

[mastin2]

(Sorry I can't do more. Need a little sleep, since I'm beginning to lose coherence.)

[killerjester]

Does anyone find it odd I can literally feel town-aura radiating from PJ?

Meransiel wagon to date that germinated solely based on the role-fishing accusation – Shanba, DH, Kondi, Hydra, Petro

If Meran is Town then at least 1 scum jumped on this easy wagon. Role-fishing is one of the easiest accusations to make that seems like a good scum-tell but rarely is.

/Accurate. Kondi's town, Hydra's likely-town, PJ's also likely-town. Leaves Demon and Shanba.

You're making coherent sense, even on little sleep. And out of your post I think this speaks the most volumes. Out of Demon and Shanba, one of them is very likely to be scum. If Bowser flips town, I'd say to look deeper for Demon. And otherwise, Shanba.

[petroleumjelly]

This game is pathetic.

Mod: Please prod Iecerint, Pine, Shanba, ToastyToast, Bowser, and Hydra.

All

of these players have not posted in the last 48 hours.

@Pine

: You’ve been in this game for almost

two weeks

and you have provided ZERO content.

None

. Do something. You’ve clearly been posting elsewhere, even in games that have already finished. Your "posts per day" average of 15.89 is so ridiculously high that I have a hard time believing you apparently have no time for this game that you decided to replace into. Do you think you lurk more often as scum?

Try paying some attention to the game people have been waiting on your for two weeks on where there is about to be a deadline hitting. If you don’t have the time, save us the trouble and replace out so we can get somebody who is actually going to play.