NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[ToastyToast]

But if he DOESN"T claim VT (and he's a vig), then Iec provides a great target for the scum team, which in effect PROTECTS other PR's.

Why is that so hard to understand? You want to take protection away from Iecrint in favor of people who are unclaimed? You know how inaccurate that can be? Its enough being sure your protecting town, and narrowing that list down to protecting PR's is unrealistic. Claimed PR's are better to protect.

[killerjester]

You seem wishy washy on Shanba, at best. It would help if you gave us a solid opinion. Which posts of his gave you a town feeling at first? Why? Which posts changed your mind?

[David Xanatos]

And we're then asking any protectives to take a gamble on whether they'll protecting him (A potential VT) or a random who they believe is TPR. If it's confirmed that he has multiple (3+) shots, then covering him becomes, in my mind, the intelligent move. If not, he's not worth guarenteed protection, therefore affording the protectives the choice.

And the main thing was the direct contrast between Shanba's first post, attempting to call someone out for "parking his vote", and then going on to park his vote on saporo, then do the same on Yos, and then again on Pine... at first I read him as Town trying to start a policy lynch wagon, but when I noticed that pattern, it went straight out the window..

[David Xanatos]

And to direct answer the question I've already answered (If you bothered to read my quote), I think he's scummy, but I don't want to see a quickhammer/selfhammer before we can get a little more information. He's not going anywhere, so rushing to go to Night phase doesn't help us.

[killerjester]

Why would you be worried about him self-hammering?

[David Xanatos]

Because if he's Scum, as I believe he is, it's in his interests to restrict the information Town can acquire before the Night phase. Scum are the informed minority, the less information Town can put together, the easier it is for the Scum team.

[Amrun]

VC3.4

(0) DemonHybrid
(1) David Xanatos - Shanba
(0) mastin2
(0) Iecerint
(2) Killerjester - Hydra, CrashTextDummie
(0) CrashTextDummie
(0) MrBuddyLee
(0) Yosarian2
(4) Shanba - killerjester, ToastyToast, DemonHybrid, mastin2
(0) Hydra
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: David Xanatos, Iecerint, MrBuddyLee, Yosarian2

V/LA: Yosarian2

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday, August 4, 11:30pm EST

Decided to bump it back one more day.

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - Shanba > killerjester > Shanba
David Xanatos
mastin2 - killerjester > Shanba
Iecerint
Killerjester - Shanba
CrashTextDummie - killerjester
MrBuddyLee
Yosarian2
Shanba - Pine
Hydra - killerjester
ToastyToast - Shanba

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

Shanba and CrashTextDummie are being prodded.

[Yosarian2]

Back from V/LA. catching up now.

[Iecerint]

I could see DX as scum becoming bold after some people expressed confidence in his direction so far (IIRC @ the last, at least). I have never played in a game where town who had actually taken the time to reflect on all the angles (as DX appears to have done) came to the conclusion that elaborating a vig claim was a good idea.

[David Xanatos]

Can you point out a flaw in my logic?

If you can direct me to a reason for keeping it under wraps, that isn't easily shown to be either null or actually negative to us, I may reconsider, but considering the information we have, I am of the firm belief that it would help Town to know details.

[Iecerint]

Town, by and large, do not care how many more shots I have. They probably trust me to make my shots in a reasonably pro-town fashion, unless they just think I'm a really awful player. Protective roles at least know I'm town, which is fair enough basis for protection on its own regardless of shots I may have.

Scum want to know how many shots I have to determine whether I'm good for killing (e.g. because, even though I'm pretty much confirmed town and a decent shot anyway, I'm also relatively inactive and hence perhaps a delayed kill might be OK, etc).

So the reason is that the benefits are marginal or absent (depending upon how much you think I am incompetent) and the costs are marginal to high.

The flaw in your logic (in the sense, why I think it's scummy beyond the circumstantial stuff in the previous post) is that talking points like town needing to "gain information" on the grounds that scum are the "informed majority" are used out-of-context (e.g. scum aren't informed vis a vie the details of my ability).

[Yosarian2]

First of all, lol at all the people accusing me of "bussing" because I was right yesterday. So typical; I'm wrong day 1 and right day 2, and people are attacking me for both, heh. Personally, I'm just glad I'm batting .500 this game, but hey, whatever.

Anyway, now that we have a caught scum, we have some real meat to analyze. Looking back on day 2 with the knowledge Para is scum, my biggest suspect right now is CTD.

CTD opposed the wagon all day, while pushing wagons like DH (who could theoretically be SK, but is certainly not on the scum team with his neighbor Para at this point).

CTD:

ISO Post 3, he attacked Meransiel (town), DH (not scum), and me (town)..

Post 4 he attacks the same people in more detail (Meran, me, and DH), and defends Hydra and Para.

Post 5, he keeps pushing the same bad suspects, saying:

I'll eat my hat if not at least one of {Meransiel, Yosarian2, DemonHybrid} is scum.

Which, considering he's talking about 3 people who are not scum, is a pretty damn scummy thing to push.

Post 6:

tldr: scumlist as of end of D1:

scum:
Meransiel
Yos2
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
PJ

grey glob of goo:
Mastin2
Icerint
saporovirus
Shanba
kondi2424

leaning town:
earworm
Parama

town:
Hydra
MBL

Same list, same bad reasons.

By post 6 and 7, he could no longer push the Meran lynch for obvious reasons, moved Shanba and Earworm down to his suspect list, but kept voting for DH, while saying neutral-ish things about Para in his post #6 and then putting him in his "leaning town" list in post 7, which I think by this point was a pretty unjustified position to take.

tldr:

scum:
DemonHybrid

leaning scum:
killerjester
Shanba
Yos

neutral:
Pine
ToastyToast

leaning town:
Bowser
PJ
Hydra
MBL

confirmed town:
Mastin
Meransiel
Icerint

I think CTD is the most likely suspect for Para's buddy at this point, based on day 2 interactions.

Vote:CrashTextDummies

New comments on other people, based on analysis with knowledge of more alignments:

Shanba: Pretty much defended Para-scum for much of the game.

I don't think Parama is scum. I don't agree with his attack on MoI, but I'm unconvinced it's scummy.

Unvote Vote: SensFan

Parama made the whole "KONDI TOWNSLIPPED" post which to me a pretty big towntell in and of itself. His attack on MoI was meeeeh, but whatever. I would like if he would pursue leads instead of "just throwing that out there" but again whatever.

TBH, mbl, Parama's behaviour today doesn't strike me as particularly indicative of his alignment at all. Yesterday he was reasonably active and did some amount of scumhunting (if mediocre scumhunting). Today? Well, he fell behind, and then spent the whole time defending himself. I mean, I have to reread to be sure, but I'm pretty sure the accusations came before the scumhunting stopped, and it's not uncommon at all for a player under a lot of pressure who's also behind to drop dramatically in scumhunting. It's like, you only have so much time and effort you can spend on a game.

I dont want to argue this too hard, because I'm not really that sure he's town, but I don't think the case against him is very strong.

Parama really looks like he just lost interest in the game. I dont think that's scummy or townie either way. The whole "I'm catching up" thing may be classic active lurking, but it's not what scum do when already under pressure, as Parama was. When you think you're getting lynched, like in parama's situation, you try and defuse it by giving them words - even if the words are not considered or consistent or whatever. Promises to catch up dont placate mobs.

Would Shanba do all that for a fairly doomed scumbuddy? I don't know. There are still some posts of Shanba that give me a good gut feeling, but defending scum to that extent is is to big a thing to ignore, and Shanba has just moved way down my list.

fos:shanba

Hydra: Their hardcore attacks of Meran look pretty bad, especally the BS "he claimed scum" post typed in ALL CAPS. They did vote Para for much of day 2, but I'm a little skittish about giving them much town cred for that, because of a few factors:

For a while, Hydra didn't have any real reasons for voting for Para. I'm not really clear why he was doing it. This was the only mention of Para in the post where they vote him:

Parama needs rope or replace out for failing at game.

In a very long post (ISO 53), he talks about everything else in the game, just barely mentions Para at all, and then ends up voting Para.

Later, he makes this post:

heh, a few previews I missed. I am happy with lynching parama, and on a scum flip, going straight after saporo.

This post strikes me the wrong way. He still hasn't really explained why he wants to lynch para, other then lurking, but is already lining up lynches for what to do after he flips scum?

[Iecerint]

I don't think Parama was really all that doomed. I was OK with seeing him go, but I could've easily been swayed in a number of different directions. Re: "would Shanba bus in this fashion."

[ToastyToast]

If Parama/Bowser had been more active, that lynch probably would have gone elsewhere.

Yosarian, why are you voting someone with no wagon when you have an FoS on Shanba, the biggest wagon? Is there a large difference in your confidence b/w the two reads?

[David Xanatos]

Town, by and large, do not care how many more shots I have. They probably trust me to make my shots in a reasonably pro-town fashion, unless they just think I'm a really awful player. Protective roles at least know I'm town, which is fair enough basis for protection on its own regardless of shots I may have.

Scum want to know how many shots I have to determine whether I'm good for killing (e.g. because, even though I'm pretty much confirmed town and a decent shot anyway, I'm also relatively inactive and hence perhaps a delayed kill might be OK, etc).

So the reason is that the benefits are marginal or absent (depending upon how much you think I am incompetent) and the costs are marginal to high.

The flaw in your logic (in the sense, why I think it's scummy beyond the circumstantial stuff in the previous post) is that talking points like town needing to "gain information" on the grounds that scum are the "informed majority" are used out-of-context (e.g. scum aren't informed vis a vie the details of my ability).

Firstly, just because the majority haven't asked, doesn't mean they don't want to know. It simply may not have occured to them.

Secondly, protective roles /don't/ know you're Town. You're not confirmed. You're being given the benefit of the doubt, there's a difference. And no, frankly, if I were protective (not confirming or denying), I'd rather protect a random person I thought was Town PR than a debatable Vig, on the chance of protecting an investigative.

And the benefits are not marginal. A protective could protect the confirmed Mastin, or go for a random, hoping to strike lucky, over the unconfirmed you. As an additional, the costs are not high. If you have a third shot, speak now, if not, then you don't need protection, as you can take a second shot tonight regardless of whether you're targetted or not, and if you don't have a shot, we're not covering a VT. See my point RE: Chance of protection of a town PR, or guarenteed protection of the CT, over an unconfirmed vig/VT.

Scum may not be informed as to the details of your ability, but they will be aware that should you hold back the information, there's a moderate chance you'd be protected, and therefore a higher chance of sniping out a TPR. We've already lost 2 PRs and 4 Townies, I'd say that minus the ~3 scum I'd estimate there to be, and the SK (If we assume NK immune), and minus Mastin (CT), let's even say minus you (VT/Vig if not scum), there's now 5 reasonable targets. I reckon the odds of randomly hitting TPR in that are quite high. So yes, they will be pretty damn informed, if they're not inactive.

[David Xanatos]

Just a minor footnote. If we assume the two neighbours are Town, I'd say it's unlikely they'll have a second PR, therefore Scum shots to hit a PR are literally down to a pool of 3, 4 if we happen to have a small scumteam.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, why are you voting someone with no wagon when you have an FoS on Shanba, the biggest wagon? Is there a large difference in your confidence b/w the two reads?

Yes, I certanly do. I have a strong scum read on CTD. I have mixed feelings on Shanba; I don't know if he would really defend a buddy that strongly as scum or not, and I had a town gut read from some of his posts. I don't really like his voting history, and I don't really like his lack of content, but I'm not confident on him.

I really can't see CTD being town at all at this point, and I'm troubled that he's gotten no pressure at all for his treatment of Para vs. DH yesterday, as well as the other scumtells like the "One of DH, Meran, and Yos must be scum" line.

[MrBuddyLee]

Posting from vacation.

@Xanatos

, can you please explain why you find the KJ-saporo slot townish?

@Yos

, welcome back. Hope you enjoyed your vacation.

Yos's opinion of her is floaty:

SV seems town-ish to me right now. Stuff like where on day 1 she questioned DH about the Kondi thing, and when he answered, she unvoted him based on his answers feels honestly town to me.

saporovirus: Not really a fan of her day 1 play. I like that she defended me against PJ on day 2, heh. (Ok, it's hard for me to be unbiased about this, but that defensive posts feels town-ish to me).

Null: Hydra, MBL, saporovirus

@Yos

: What's the latest scoop on saporo?

[Shanba]

@Shabs, can you please go into more detail on how you perceive killerjester?

Her position on you day 1 was eh. Day 2 I voted her off the bat as a result and tried to get a reaction:

I made a few bait posts - the attacks on saporovirus - that no one picked up on. I wanted saporovirus or at least someone to question me about those votes, but I got nothing. Instead, this was her response:

Yeah kinda thought it was a bad gambit. I had visions of him claiming townie, though, and me desperately trying to convince people that he was just dumb and not scum and I'm so glad that at the very least he appears to be confirmable. Lets lynch saporo now plzkthx.

Don't do that!

I feel like a townie would have picked me up on that and pushed me, at least to know my reasons - particularly given my relative inactivity the day before. Instead it looks like she's assessing the threat potential and seeing it near zero, just needs to fob it off rather than risk getting into a debate with me. I think this response was scummy.

Killer immediately came in and followed up on the parama/bowser vote. I honestly feel like that's null. I don't like saporo's attitude towards parama just before she was replaced.

I mean, there's nothing that really stands out to me like earworm's posts do. He could well be a partner - but so could yos. I dno.

I stated a case on the David Xanatos slot and it has literally nothing to do with the inactivity of the slot? WTF.

CTD looks analytical and his suspicions to me look legit. Take his very first post:

DemonHybrid

is the third guy that made an impression on my scumdar so far. I agree with MoI's assessment of his conduct towards kondi. I also thought his reasoning for his stance on Panama was inconsistent. He went from:

I'd be voting for Parama right now were it not for the fact that he was so willing to out the 3 of us.

to

I don't know. I have no reason to vote Parama right now whatsoever. He hasn't been remotely scummy.

in a very short period of time. The two quotes don't add up in my opinion.

it's a defence of parama, but also a hugely legit point - his posts all through the game have looked that way to me. The way he backs off Yosarian doesn't look like scum at all - scum don't just back off suspicions for no reasons, and particularly they don't claim to be getting cold feet a ctd did. His suspicions are way too organic to be manufactured, imo. I'd be very surprised if CTD was scum.

[Yosarian2]

Posting from vacation.

@Xanatos

, can you please explain why you find the KJ-saporo slot townish?

@Yos

, welcome back. Hope you enjoyed your vacation.

Yos's opinion of her is floaty:

SV seems town-ish to me right now. Stuff like where on day 1 she questioned DH about the Kondi thing, and when he answered, she unvoted him based on his answers feels honestly town to me.

saporovirus: Not really a fan of her day 1 play. I like that she defended me against PJ on day 2, heh. (Ok, it's hard for me to be unbiased about this, but that defensive posts feels town-ish to me).

Null: Hydra, MBL, saporovirus

@Yos

: What's the latest scoop on saporo?

Eh. Her content was thin, so it's hard to say anything for sure, but I don't think it's all that likely that she was scum with Para. This looks like an honest attack to me:

unvote

vote: parama

Reasoning?

1. I am still not liking how you both jumped on the Hydra wagon after kondi "townslipped," but your play towards the end of D1 struck me as somewhat less scummy. I have to go back and re-read it to figure out why I thought so.

2. Parama's general "fuck off with your questions" attitude has been a bit strange. He could just be pissed off with the game but it's been going on for a while.

3. One of you 3 is scum and it's not kondi and it's probably not you.

She did get off the para wagon for a while at one point after this, but, meh. This doesn't really look like distancing to me.

[Hydra]

Also also, Hydra, read. It's a null tell if you're being wagoned and vote for the next wagon, because it's pro-town to keep yourself alive as Town. You're the only person (apart from mod-confirmed townies) you KNOW is town. Letting yourself be lynched over someone who isn't CT is always a bad play as Town.

Pursuing your scum reads as long as possible without digging into a me/him contest is pro town though, yeah? <--rhetorical

Seriously. You don't get to post 4 times in 4 days and then whine there's not enough thread activity.

You do if that posting rate still has you in the 50% most active players in the game.

Especially when you still haven't delivered the promised case, and repeatedly use words like "definitely" without knowing how to spell them. (Yes, it's petty, but it really, really annoys me. A typo is fine, spelling it wrong twice in one post is not.)

We're not allowed to complain about the slowness of the game because you didn't notice a case we already made and we have spelling typos.
Seriously?
Why the attack on our character rather than anything else - what was the purpose behind this? <---not rhetorical.

This was the only mention of Para in the post where they vote him:

Parama needs rope or replace out for failing at game.

Well;
1. In the post right before it I mention my hydra mate finds him scummy.
2. By the wording of the vote I am clearly endorsing the current Parama wagon as it existed without retyping it for no gain but bruised fingers.
3. That was so blatantly Thor posting that you should be well aware it was awesome you got a one sentence clarification to the case.

Whassup?

The whole Vig claim discussion is fairly silly to my mind. He's confirmed town who may or may not have a kill ability. I'm comfortable with that situation and I personally think any protective roles should be comfortable with that information too. Regardless of how much you believe it, Xanatos, you're clearly not selling anyone - therefore the conversation should be dropped before it clogs us up any more than it already has.

@Mastin - by the way, congratulations on better town play Though it's just because you were robbed of the ability to fakeclaim, yeah?

Would much rather lynch Killerjester than Shanba. Other head sees Shanba but I'm not so sold on it. The strongest win it has is that it basically has 3 confirmed not mafia on it, which is kewl, but at the same time I feel the case isn't really existent in my own head, it just sort of seems to be there because he lurks and defended Parama. Killerjester feels more win to me, I think that's the much better lynch.

David Xanatos, Iecerint, MrBuddyLee, Yosarian2

Also, though I think Yos voted and got on CTD since the vote count I'm quoting, the above players are quite likely failing at life.

[Iecerint]

@ DX -- No, I'm pretty much confirmed town -- at least as much as is reasonable. I'm only possible scum if there are 2 SKs or the scum had an extra "shot"-flavored kill. Those possibilities are remote.

To the extent that I'm not confirmed, additional information about shots will not alter my confirmation status, either, so your points about me not being confirmed are irrelevant to whether I should claim more details.

Protective roles do not need my permission to protect Mastin or whomever they so choose.

@ Hydra -- Eh?

[MrBuddyLee]

We're failing at life because we're not voting.

[Iecerint]

Ah.

[killerjester]

MBL, you're harboring your thoughts a little. Isn't there anything you want to share?