NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Yosarian2]

Unless your scum *gasp*

Well, sure. Of course I'm using my knowledge of my own town alignment in my own analysis.

I don't really get why anyone would suspect me of being scum at this point, though. So far this game, I've been attacked for tunneling on Parama while not wanting to vote for DH or wanting to really entertain any other suspects on day 2, I've been attacked for saying that I thought Shanba looked town, and I was attacked for saying that because of Sapo's attack on Parma, they were probably not scum together. I turned out to be right on all 3 counts, and I don't even know why anyone is attacking me at this point.

That being said, sure, I'm one of the unconfirmeds. Assuming MBL flips scum, the only unconfirmed left are me and hydra, and town has plenty of chances to lynch and/or vig both of us. (Alternately, albeit less likely, if MBL flips town and Xantos is vigged and flips scum, town still has time). If we're both dead and the game still isn't over, it means one of the "confirmeds" is actually a trick, but that seems fairly unlikely.

[Hydra]

I figured this out. Game over.

Unvote
Vote: Yosarian2

First, There are probably two scum left here alive in the game. I think every power role that was outed before today is town, which is DemonHybrid and Toasty as neighbors, Iecerint as the vigilante, and CTD as the doctor.

That leaves three people whose alignment I do not know coming into today, those being DavidX, MrBuddyLee, and Yosarian2.

Intially, it made sense to me to vote David based on his very weird claim/gambit. But at this point in the game it is almost 100% unlikely that David and MrBuddyLee are the same alignment. For one, no two man scum group would plan a cross bus on eachother out of the gate for no apparent reason, and if they were both town, MrBuddyLee would be able to explain the 'has a gun' result that David has claimed on him.

So with one scum and one town among the three unconfirmed, that leaves the only remaining possible scum member as Yosarian2. He's either scum with BuddyLee and bussing, or scum with DavidX and hoping for a mislynch, but it doesn't matter to me. If we lynch him today we are almost guaranteed to hit scum.

Then, going into the night, Iecerint will vig MrBuddyLee and DavidX can investigate someone else, preferably one of the neighbors. MrBuddyLee will die, and if he doesn't, that means DavidX was telling the truth about a roleblocker and we lynch BuddyLee for the win.

If BuddyLee dies and flips town, that means the DavidX was lying, and we lynch him for the win. In all these scenarios, Yosarian is scum, and the other scum will fall soon after.

[DemonHybrid]

And are you comfortable going down after two scum if we follow your plan and the game still continues?

What if Iece gets blocked and killed? (assuming Yosarian isn't a roleblocker)

[Amrun]

VC4.1

(0) DemonHybrid
(1) David Xanatos - MrBuddyLee
(0) Iecerint
(0) CrashTextDummie
(2) MrBuddyLee - David Xanatos, Yosarian2
(2) Yosarian2 - DemonHybrid, Hydra
(0) Hydra
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Iecerint, CrashTextDummie, ToastyToast

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday, August 19, 11pm EST

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - Yosarian2 > unvote > David Xanatos > unvote> Yosarian2
David Xanatos - MrBuddyLee
Iecerint -
CrashTextDummie -
MrBuddyLee - David Xanatos
Yosarian2 - MrBuddyLee
Hydra - David Xanatos > Yosarian2
ToastyToast -

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

[David Xanatos]

"Then, going into the night, Iecerint will vig MrBuddyLee and DavidX can investigate someone else, preferably one of the neighbors. MrBuddyLee will die, and if he doesn't, that means DavidX was telling the truth about a roleblocker and we lynch BuddyLee for the win. "

This hinges entirely on Ice having another Vig shot.

Ice, do you have another Vig shot?

[Yosarian2]

Well, considering I'd already figured out that Hydra had to be MBL's scum buddy, that vote's not surprising.

It's very simple. Xantos claimed a guilty on MBL. So we lynch MBL, and in the fairly unlikely event he flips town, we vig Xantos. Then tomorrow, we lynch Hydra and win.

[David Xanatos]

Just as a minor thing.

I have a guilty on MBL. He may be the Roleblocker. Surely it makes sense to lynch him, to prevent him using his power at night? If he is, that means he could block his own vig, or block an investigation..

[David Xanatos]

And actually following on from that point.. if he isn't the RB, and is instead the RC, or a goon, we still narrow the pool. If there are only 2 scum left and he isn't the RB, then the RB has to choose between the kill and a Roleblock.. if there are 3 left, and he's a goon, they'd have to choose 2 of (RC, RB, NK)..

It doesn't make sense in this case to try a Vig attempt, as it means he/they can interfere with the night actions for sure.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah; we have a claimed guilty here. Either you believe Xantos, in which case we MBL is scum, or you don't, in which case we lynch Xantos is scum. Lynching a random townie doesn't do anything to solve the "Xantos or MBL" issue, and town'll still be in the same situation tomorrow.

[David Xanatos]

On that note, think about the options.

MBL hasn't claimed anything, and given the situation, if he was a PR, I'm fairly sure he'd have claimed by this point to try and swing favour his way.

You can either lynch me, and when I flip Gunsmith, give Scum a free NK/RB, or you can lynch MBL, removing either the RB or the NK, and giving me another chance to get an investigate on either Yos or Hydra.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok, I understand that people are hesitant to lynch claimed power roles, but this one is a pretty obvious fakeclaim and I intend to prove it best I can. There is a chance but not a guarantee that we lose immediately if I'm lynched. Scum wouldn't have done this unless the upside was pretty significant.

I think the best I can do in this situation is to lay out the complete set of facts you have to believe in order to believe Xanatos. If you find them plausible, there's nothing much more I can do. I don't think they're plausible. Lynch Xanatos, who I guarantee is lying scum.

1) Xanatos claims that earworm investigated me N1.

Spoiler:

earworm posted this about me right before his last post of the day:

godammit you are town aren't you?

and he claimed to strongly suspect other players. He was scum kissing up to me, not town gunsmith thinking that MBL was a good investigation choice.

2) Xanatos claims that earworm and Pine were aware of a guilty on me D2 but said nothing and breadcrumbed nothing.

Spoiler:

Pine posted three times on D2. July 11th, 15th and 21st. He did not mention a guilty. For cross-reference, here is how Pine plays it as cop when he has a real guilty result:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p3135636

Short day, folks. I'm the

cop

(that breadcrumb was legit) and I have a guilty on Imaginality.

Vote: Imaginality

Pine was NOT sitting on a guilty result July 11th-21st. He was lurking scum who was actively making 77 posts in other games on this site between July 11th and July 21st.

3) Xanatos claims that he entered the game on July 30th and didn't find either of the competing wagons scummy, but let them happen instead of announcing his "guilty":

Spoiler:

Will need to take a look at the situation (Particularly the current wagons, since we're coming relatively close to the deadline..).

I don't find you particularly scummy

KJ I'm leaning townish

He did not act, because he was satisfied that the competing lynches were not scumpartners of his. Further evidence that he did not have a guilty.

4) Xanatos claims he entered the game on July 30th and did not breadcrumb a guilty on MBL. Nor did Pine in the ten days he was posting in this game.

Spoiler:

And I pointed out MBL yesterday too. Slight breadcrumbing before I went to bed in case of a lynch during the night.

This is all Xanatos said about me D3.

I find MBL's reads rather interesting..

That is not a breadcrumb of a guilty, particularly after Xanatos went after five other players over the course of the day.

Him calling that a breadcrumb is a desperation retrofit, as apparently scum decided I was their best target for today but didn't think they stood a chance of lynching me without the fakeclaim. I think it's obvious that they didn't come up with the fakeclaim idea until overnight, or they would have had Xanatos plant the seeds better.

5) Xanatos didn't claim his "guilty" once learning of a doctor.

Spoiler:

We do

not

lynch non-counterclaimed Docs.

No way a cop with a guilty would play it like this, with a vig, scum and SK all taking shots at night. You say "I have a guilty on xxx. Doctor, protect me. I will have another result for you all tomorrow."

Ergo, he is not a cop with a guilty.

Spoiler: Big Picture:

earworm cast suspicion on town/likely town/town D1 and did not mention Yosarian at all. Actually, Yosarian is the only player earworm did not mention at all.

VOTE: Sensfan

FOS Iecerint

VOTE: AGM

Pine lurked D2.

Xanatos said a lot D3 without saying much, and focused attention on CTD and Shanba, who are likely town and town. He didn't talk about Yos, his most likely scumpartner, at all.

He is not a cop. He is lying scum. Please lynch him.

[David Xanatos]

Ok, I understand that people are hesitant to lynch claimed power roles, but this one is a pretty obvious fakeclaim and I intend to prove it best I can. There is a chance but not a guarantee that we lose immediately if I'm lynched. Scum wouldn't have done this unless the upside was pretty significant.

I think the best I can do in this situation is to lay out the complete set of facts you have to believe in order to believe Xanatos. If you find them plausible, there's nothing much more I can do. I don't think they're plausible. Lynch Xanatos, who I guarantee is lying scum.

1) Xanatos claims that earworm investigated me N1.

Spoiler:

earworm posted this about me right before his last post of the day:

godammit you are town aren't you?

and he claimed to strongly suspect other players. He was scum kissing up to me, not town gunsmith thinking that MBL was a good investigation choice.

I've already explained this.

Spoiler: Here

And Yos, a common school of thought with Cops and similar roles is to investigate someone you feel is intelligent and good at reading people, as when they're confirmed, it's much more of an asset to Town than if you investigate the VI and he's Town.. may or may not have been earworm's logic, but that's my general stance.

2) Xanatos claims that earworm and Pine were aware of a guilty on me D2 but said nothing and breadcrumbed nothing.

Spoiler:

Pine posted three times on D2. July 11th, 15th and 21st. He did not mention a guilty. For cross-reference, here is how Pine plays it as cop when he has a real guilty result:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p3135636

Short day, folks. I'm the

cop

(that breadcrumb was legit) and I have a guilty on Imaginality.

Vote: Imaginality

Pine was NOT sitting on a guilty result July 11th-21st. He was lurking scum who was actively making 77 posts in other games on this site between July 11th and July 21st.

Are you suggesting that in every game he flaked out of during that time, he was "lurking scum"? It wasn't just this game.. from a quick glance I had it appears he only bothered actually playing marathons.

3) Xanatos claims that he entered the game on July 30th and didn't find either of the competing wagons scummy, but let them happen instead of announcing his "guilty":

Spoiler:

Will need to take a look at the situation (Particularly the current wagons, since we're coming relatively close to the deadline..).

I don't find you particularly scummy

KJ I'm leaning townish

He did not act, because he was satisfied that the competing lynches were not scumpartners of his. Further evidence that he did not have a guilty.

You neglect to note I later rescinded my "not particularly scummy" read on Shanba, and indeed actually voted for her.. then actively discouraged the lynch on KJ when he claimed Doc. That's far from "not acting". As I've stated

numerous

times, there was no advantage whatsoever in revealing when someone I did suspect of being Scum (Shanba) was being run up the pole. That would simply have put me on the target list at Night, without giving Town any tangible gain. My way, I had a chance at a second read.

4) Xanatos claims he entered the game on July 30th and did not breadcrumb a guilty on MBL. Nor did Pine in the ten days he was posting in this game.

Spoiler:

And I pointed out MBL yesterday too. Slight breadcrumbing before I went to bed in case of a lynch during the night.

This is all Xanatos said about me D3.

I find MBL's reads rather interesting..

That is not a breadcrumb of a guilty, particularly after Xanatos went after five other players over the course of the day.

Him calling that a breadcrumb is a desperation retrofit, as apparently scum decided I was their best target for today but didn't think they stood a chance of lynching me without the fakeclaim. I think it's obvious that they didn't come up with the fakeclaim idea until overnight, or they would have had Xanatos plant the seeds better.

Were you expecting a fucking fourth-of-july parade saying "THIS PERSON MIGHT BE GUILTY? POSSIBLY? MAYBE?".

I don't deal in halves. I had intended to go into an ISO of you, but decided against it. And here's something for people to think about.

Given the number of people who had MBL down as Town, why in the seven hells would Scum decide to fake-claim a guilty on him? It would draw precisely what it's drawn here, for zero gain.

Common sense would indicate to go after someone more moderate, or hold off and wait to see how the ebb and flow of the day went.

5) Xanatos didn't claim his "guilty" once learning of a doctor.

Spoiler:

We do

not

lynch non-counterclaimed Docs.

No way a cop with a guilty would play it like this, with a vig, scum and SK all taking shots at night. You say "I have a guilty on xxx. Doctor, protect me. I will have another result for you all tomorrow."

Ergo, he is not a cop with a guilty.

I've already explained this too.

Spoiler:

I find MBL's reads rather interesting..

I'll need to think on this.. see you all in the morning.

And as a precaution..

UNVOTE: Shanba

During that time I was drafting the post I've already posted here, not sure whether to reveal or not, due to the nature of KJ's claim. When CTD counterclaimed, there was no sense revealing because it was going to be KJ anyway, and revealing would simply have made me a target while forcing Town to choose between a Guilty read and a Doc counterclaim. Common sense here.. why expose myself to get protection, when there's already a claimed Vig and a claimed Doc who'd draw fire? My chance of surviving were moderate to high anyway, and increased further when KJ flipped SK. (The last part was beyond the point of my own ability to reveal anyway, but it did increase the odds regardless.)

Spoiler: Big Picture:

earworm cast suspicion on town/likely town/town D1 and did not mention Yosarian at all. Actually, Yosarian is the only player earworm did not mention at all.

VOTE: Sensfan

FOS Iecerint

VOTE: AGM

Pine lurked D2.

Xanatos said a lot D3 without saying much, and focused attention on CTD and Shanba, who are likely town and town. He didn't talk about Yos, his most likely scumpartner, at all.

He is not a cop. He is lying scum. Please lynch him.

[David Xanatos]

Quote fail.

And to respond to the so called "Big Picture".

Earworm went inactive at the end of D1. He obviously sent in his night action then flaked. He didn't have the result D1.
Pine flaked from many games in that time period.
And I said a lot D3 because I wanted to see how things went.. making too much of a splash would have made me a prime Night target, as I said.

[Yosarian2]

2) Xanatos claims that earworm and Pine were aware of a guilty on me D2 but said nothing and breadcrumbed nothing.

Earworm never posted on day 2. Pine posted on day 2, but all he did was make 3 "I'm going to read the game soon" posts; he never actually read the thread at all. If he was a gunsmith who found a gun on someone, would you expect him to claim before reading the thread, or would you expect him to try to figure out if the person he investigated might be a town power role first?

You're right, Xantos's behavior yesterday was really odd for a gunsmith with a "gun" result, as I questioned him on extensively. I'm having trouble seeing this as a scum gambit at all, though; it doesn't really make any sense as one.

[MrBuddyLee]

why in the seven hells would Scum decide to fake-claim a guilty on MBL? It would draw precisely what it's drawn here, for zero gain.

Who else did you consider fakeclaiming a guilty on? Probably not your scumpartner(s). (1/(2)) Probably not the vig (3) or the doctor (4). Probably not the neighbors (5/6). Probably not yourself (7).

8 - 7 = MBL


As to why:

Given the number of people who had MBL down as Town

Yeah, I think that explains it.

[Hydra]

And are you comfortable going down after two scum if we follow your plan and the game still continues?

Well I don't think the game could possibly still but going, but, No, because I know my alignment, and lynching myself if the game is still going isn't going to make the scum lose. I don't think that is going to happen though

What if Iece gets blocked and killed? (assuming Yosarian isn't a roleblocker)

For one, this is assuming there is a roleblocker and David is telling the truth, which I'm not sure about. But you're forgetting we also have a doctor in the game as well. CTD protects Iecerint tonight, and that means there is no way Iece can both be potentially blocked and killed, he is either going to get a shot off on Mrbuddy and die (we'll see the alignment then), or be potentially blocked and CTD dies.

~~~
This also confirms my suspicion of you Yosarian. You say and imply you're unsure which of David and MrBuddy is the scum here,

You're right, Xantos's behavior yesterday was really odd for a gunsmith with a "gun" result, as I questioned him on extensively. I'm having trouble seeing this as a scum gambit at all, though; it doesn't really make any sense as one.

So we lynch MBL, and in the fairly unlikely event he flips town, we vig Xantos.

I figured the same thing out, but then I reasoned that the only logical remaining scum choice was you. If you were town as well, I'm sure you would have reasoned this out and placed a vote on me. If you were town, I would have to be the only logical 100% chance of being scum here, yet you not only didn't initially vote me, you continue to not vote me after acknowledging this.

~~~

Lynching a random townie doesn't do anything to solve the "Xantos or MBL" issue, and town'll still be in the same situation tomorrow.

Actually it does, and you're not a random townie, you're the only logical choice left I'm very certain of being scum. The way our power-roles are configured, the other scum out of buddy and David is going to be exposed tonight.

[David Xanatos]

You're trying to claim that if I were scum, we'd have "planned" it.

Him calling that a breadcrumb is a desperation retrofit, as apparently scum decided I was their best target for today but didn't think they stood a chance of lynching me without the fakeclaim. I think it's obvious that they didn't come up with the fakeclaim idea until overnight, or they would have had Xanatos plant the seeds better.

Let's dismantle this.

Why would you live so long if Scum considered you a threat? There's a Vig, who'd be attracting a hidden Doc's protection. There was a Tracker, who's only a threat if they target you, and given they have a Roleblocker, could have been held off on. You on the other hand, have been consistently attracting Town reads. You didn't claim PR, but you didn't claim VT either. Mastin was confirmed VT. If you're trying to claim that you'd be the "best lynch", you're insane. Even a Scum team drawn to simply the RB and his partner(s) would be more liable to try and bus the least valuable, to buy Town cred for the others, and shoot you. Why would Scum go all-out on a Guilty result. Not as a Cop, but as a Gunsmith. Gunsmiths have a failure rate (Won't detect SK, will detect flavour-miller), and the role itself would attract some suspicion simply for the fact that it's unusual.

What possible motive would Scum have to keep you alive with the Tracker gone? The Doc would be covering the Vig, the CT is only a threat as far as his reads are right and he can rally people around.. but people can lose objectivity when they're CT, because they no longer need to concern themselves with their own defense. And in addition, any PRs like Watcher would be watching the Doc.. not you.

PEdit: Hydra, you or Yos can be lynched tomorrow though.

One of you knows who the other Scum is, but we're in the Evil Twin situation right now. We don't know which one.. so better to eliminate the Guilty read first, and I scan you or Yos tonight. If MBL is the RB, there's no way I can be interfered with.. if the Doc protects me tonight, and the RB isn't MBL, then they have to pick between shooting or RBing me.. it becomes a WIFOM situation for the Scum.. shoot GS, Block GS, or shoot Doc.

[David Xanatos]

TOWN:
Hydra
LIKELY TOWN: CTD
MBL
Pine

SK:
Demon

SCUM:
KJ/Sapo
Yos2
Shanba

1. DemonHybrid
2. Pine** earworm* Ythan
5. killerjester saporovirus
8. CrashTextDummie Hrezs*
11. MrBuddyLee***
13. Yosarian2
14. Shanba***

ACTUAL LYNCH POOL:

1. DemonHybrid
5. killerjester saporovirus
13. Yosarian2
14. Shanba***

Post 1024 and 1026 from Mastin. As I said above, a CT is only a threat as far as their reads are correct. In this instance, he was way, way off. 1/3 of his "Scum" turned out to be Town, one was the SK, granted, and the other is unknown. So 2/3 of his Scum reads were wrong. (He did declare Demon the SK, so you can't even argue he lumped the SK in there.)

He has Hydra as Town, not even "likely", and you as Town. Ergo, way off the mark on you, and Hydra's far from confirmed.

[David Xanatos]

why in the seven hells would Scum decide to fake-claim a guilty on MBL? It would draw precisely what it's drawn here, for zero gain.

Who else did you consider fakeclaiming a guilty on? Probably not your scumpartner(s). (1/(2)) Probably not the vig (3) or the doctor (4). Probably not the neighbors (5/6). Probably not yourself (7).

8 - 7 = MBL


As to why:

Given the number of people who had MBL down as Town

Yeah, I think that explains it.

Neighbours are unconfirmed, a guilty claim on one of them would be more likely than you, hell, you may even be able to get a bandwagon on one without a guilty claim. CTD's claim is unconfirmed, so a desperate Scum team would take a shot at that, since no shots had been blocked. The Vig could be represented as a Scum Vig. If we assume one partner, that would mean 1 more of either Yos or Hydra on that list. And as I said, a desperate Scum team could simply bus one of their own, and what better way than "I have a guilty read!"? That would more or less cement you as a Cop.

[Yosarian2]

I figured the same thing out, but then I reasoned that the only logical remaining scum choice was you. If you were town as well, I'm sure you would have reasoned this out and placed a vote on me. If you were town, I would have to be the only logical 100% chance of being scum here, yet you not only didn't initially vote me, you continue to not vote me after acknowledging this.

Yes, yes, I know that you're also scum, but even if we lynch you and you flip scum, it doesn't actually solve the problem, we're still in the same situation tomorrow. Ideally, we want to deal with the Xantos/MBL problem now, while we still have a living vig.

I mean, we could lynch you today, if that's what you want. I'd rather lynch the guy we have a cop guilty on, but hey. Either scum works.

It sounds to me, though, that you just want to mislynch me today so then tomorrow you and your buddy MBL can mislynch Xantos and win.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi, sorry for getting up late, had a busy weekend.

I have several issues with David Xanatos' claim:
1. He gave no indication at all yesterday that he had a guilty on MBL. I don't really buy his argument that he "didn't want to make the town choose between a guilty investigation and a counterclaimed doc", because why the hell not? Choosing between scum and scum is a win/win situation with no real downside. I also have trouble believing that he felt no threat of being nightkilled. The SK was a completely unknown factor at that point.
2. The fact that he claims to have been roleblocked. I see no reason why the scum would roleblock David X when they had the opportunity to kill Iecerint instead.
3. Game balance: alien + 2 neighbors + tracker + vig + innocent child + doc + cop seems overkill to me, even with an SK in the mix and potential scum power roles.

Having said that, I do feel the need to reread both playerslots, as the strong town-read I have on MBL may be clouding my judgement.

---------------------

I haven't really thought about the implications of David X's claim for Hydra and Yosarian yet, but on a first glace, I feel that Hydra has handled today more like I'd expect from town than Yos.

---------------------

Here's a couple questions I'd like answered:
Xanatos - it appears to me that you didn't realize I was counter-claiming killerjester in Post 1210. Is that accurate?
MBL - why haven't you claimed yet?
Yosarian - how certain are you that your vote is on scum?

[David Xanatos]

In honesty, I believed you were simply professing that you didn't believe it. I thought counterclaim initially but the wording seemed more "he's talking out his arse" than "He's lying because I'm the doc."

And CTD, there's at least a RB, there are signs of a RC (how'd they know about the Alien? Seems quite a lucky shot N1..).. those would give Scum a pretty good balance against the TPRs..

[DemonHybrid]

And CTD, there's at least a RB, there are signs of a RC (

how'd they know about the Alien? Seems quite a lucky shot N1..

)

Okay, stop right there, get down on the ground and freeze.

Unvote, Vote: David Xanatos

[DemonHybrid]

Next, get in the noose, son. It's time to die. That's WAY too much wine for my liking.

[CrashTextDummie]

Xanatos, I'm trying to figure out when you were planning to post that claim you allegedly drafted up. I believe this is the subtle MBL-breadcrumb you claim to have planted before going to bed. Yet when you "slept over it", you went into a discussion with Yos about hammering Shanba and pressure on myself instead of claiming. Did you want to post it after that? Or were you sidetracked by the Yos questioning?