NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Amrun]

If there are 2 scum, we're looking at a 50% shot of him being the RB..

@mod: If it comes to a 1 scum remaining situation, and they have a power role, can they use both the PR and the NK?

I decline to answer this.

[DemonHybrid]

Lynch MBL.

If town, shoot David, then follow an alternate reality of lynch Yos, shoot/lynch hydra. If scum, shoot Yosarian.

Lynch Hydra.

Shoot/Lynch ToastyToast if the game is still running at that point.

Game.

[DemonHybrid]

I believe Hydra should be our last scum, and therefore, there shouldn't be a need to off Toasty.

[Hydra]

Think it through though. Why would I come in and claim a guilty in a game with so many PRs? Why would I claim a Flavour Cop role? Why would I claim to have been RBed when there was a possibility of a Watcher, or worse, someone else comes out as having been RBed?

Well, if you were scum with the roleblocker, you had no fear of anyone else being roleblocked.

Another odd thing is that if Xantos is lying, that means that town had no information roles at all this game (other then an innocent child) which would be weird.

I see you are forgetting about the tracker. Care to ammend this statement?

Also, if he was going to fake a guilty, why not just say that he got the guilty last night?

Because that is extremely suspect? I am assuming David is not an idiot here, he looks pretty smart. If he is scum, he would drop a few breadcrumbs or so yesterday, and then come out claiming today with a guilty from some previous night. Its not uncommon at all. Also, If he is scum, claiming a guilty on a night before some potential lylo setup. would make him more likely to get lynched then claiming one earlier.

Think about it. Assume for a minute that there's a 2 man scumteam. How can they win at this point? If we lynch ether Xantos or MBL and then vig the other if that one flips scum, then we go into tommorow with 1 scum vs. 4 town or 1 scum vs. 5 town with multiple confirmed innocents, which is probably not winnable for the scum.

That probably what you're wondering at this point as well. From my perspective, you're either bussing Mrbuddylee to try and setup a mislynch on me and who knows who else down the track (with the possibilty you are a roleblocker to stop shenenigans as well), or you got DavidX to crumb and claim a guilty (because I know you're are sneaky enough to do this Mr Cunning Manipulator) to get someone who was very town looking coming into today lynched, and then you plan on blocking and killing in some order to go into tomorrow's lylo with the doc dead buddy dead DavidX gets lynched and you then go into the final day trying to pin another mislynch on me. You knew you were probably going to get lynched today, so you knew you had to act, and desicively. It makes a ton of sense coming from you.

[Amrun]

VC4.5

(0) DemonHybrid
(2) David Xanatos - MrBuddyLee, CrashTextDummie
(0) Iecerint
(0) CrashTextDummie
(4) MrBuddyLee - David Xanatos, Yosarian2, ToastyToast, DemonHybrid
(1) Yosarian2 - Hydra
(0) Hydra
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Iecerint

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday, August 19, 11pm EST

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - Yosarian2 > unvote > David Xanatos > unvote> Yosarian2 > David Xanatos > MrBuddyLee
David Xanatos - MrBuddyLee
Iecerint -
CrashTextDummie - David Xanatos > unvote > David Xanatos
MrBuddyLee - David Xanatos
Yosarian2 - MrBuddyLee
Hydra - David Xanatos > Yosarian2
ToastyToast - MrBuddyLee

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

[Hydra]

I honestly can't see how anyone else is not lynching Yosarian today.

If you have any sort of a town read on me, you should join me on this wagon. He is 100% confirmed scum from my point of view, his play has been consistent with the scum win condition, and his logic makes no sense when you break it down. He's dived and dodged his way through the game but barely beneath the surface.

This is the best lynch today. The power-roles are going to sort out who is the remaining scum member easily over the night. This guarantees the victory for town.

[Hydra]

Hold up on that votecount Amrun I think you missed a vote somewhere and Yosarian only has one vote.

[Amrun]

I know, hold on.

I'm fixing it up. Pressed submit too early.

[ToastyToast]

@Hydra: But you do agree we have a 1v1 and no investigative result on Yosarian?

[Hydra]

There are essentially two one v one's going on here.

There is no investigative result on Yosarian, but I know almost for a fact that he has to be scum (barring DavidX and Buddy both being scum, or some other weird combination that really is impossible to exist)

My scum read on Yosarian comes from a variety of factors, which I described, and that fact that I presented my town reasons for suspecting him and that he switched once he realized the validity of them and accepted them as well and tried to use them to get back at me (for me being scum) confirms to me the fact that he is actually scum realizing he should have gone through that thought process himself.

Plus, we have no idea if thats a real guilty or not, and I see no reason to plunge into there when I have Yosarian pegged. If Yosarian is the roleblocker (which I suspect he is if there is only a three man team), mislynching either of those two players allows him to gain weasel his way into a great situation going into the final days.

[CrashTextDummie]

DH, do you think Yosarian is more likely scum with MBL than Hydra?

It might be benefitial to massclaim today, just to make sure we have the whole picture here. Though I doubt there is any town power left, it doesn't hurt to be thorough.

[DemonHybrid]

I believe it's MBL, Yos, Hydra. Simple as that.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hms. I was under the impression this was a DX/Yos vs. MBL/Hydra thing.

[DemonHybrid]

DX town does not a Yosarian town make. Yosarian screams scum.

[Iecerint]

I could see Yos either way. I certainly feel far too ambivalent to take him over MBL.

I am probably prepared to hammer MBL.

[DemonHybrid]

Please do it.

[Hydra]

Hold up here.

I was thinking coming into today that there was a three man scum team remaining, and that those three members were probably Buddy, Yosarian and David, the only people unclaimed.

I need to read back and see who was the first person to suggest a two man scum team.

~~~~

Yosarian screams scum because he is scum. All his actions make sense from a scum point of view, and not a town point of view.

[Hydra]

I would vote, but my guess would be a 4-man scum team, which makes us 5:3

Three man team remaing as well.

It's basically "find the odd man out" of the four, then.

Agrees.

There are either 2 or 3 Scum left, I believe. Out of 18, I'd say there'd be 4.. roughly 20%, but the fact there was an SK tips the balance a little, and I'd be inclined to think 3+SK.

Only two men remaining.

DX, Yosarian, Hydra if we are 3:5.

Still with three.

If there were four scum orginially there are now three, making this 5:3 and mylo.

Three man.

Even if there were 4 scum, this isn't LyLo, or even MyLo, unless there are 2 shots in the night. Do the fecking math.

What happened here and how did I miss this? If there are 4 scum, that makes this 5:3. You claimed you were ROLEBLOCKED, so that would mean that an incorrect lynch (4:3) plus roleblocking Iece and killing CTD (3:3) is game over scum wins.

THIS IS HIGHLY PROBABLY LYLO, AND I WOULD APPRECIATE NO HAMMERS AT ALL RIGHT NOW.

[DemonHybrid]

So, like, Toasty, me AND David are scum?

[DemonHybrid]

Yeah no

iece, please hammer.

[Hydra]

Continuing with rereading last few pages. Hold

Also, Did you forget Yosarian on that wagon as well?

Turning back on what I said earlier, it may be slightly more possible Buddy and David are both scum given this. I'm not ruling out anything if it amounts to not losing the game, DH.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hydra, I went over this. The only way this lynch could end in a direct loss is if you yourself are scum. And you're not hammering.

unvote, vote: MBL

Vig Hydra.

[Iecerint]

The probability of such a combination is near zero, and IS zero given that this is a Normal game. Parama flipped Mafia Neighbor. Hence, the Neighbor construct is real and at least one Neighbor is town.

I do not know if Hydra was actually arguing as much though. Then again, it's not clear what that entire passage was arguing, other than that maybe we shouldn't hammer because the game might end.

[Iecerint]

That was @ the former.

Hydra's new post is silly for new reasons: namely that lynching MBL is ftw if he is scum, even if he is scum with DX.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yos, claim. Guys, you do not want to give him wiggle room after I come up town and Xanatos is vigged.

If

Xanatos is vigged.

Better pray the setup was 14-3-1:
3 scum
1 SK
Tracker
Doctor
Vig
Alien
Innocent Child
2 Town Neighbors
and the rest vanilla.

Jesus, you guys.

You really think there are 8 roled players and an SK and only three scum?

No way in hell. That scumteam would stand no chance. Think about it. Why has Xanatos been pushing a three-scum team for so long? Because it's the key to his fakeclaim--it makes a lynch of me look less risky than a lynch of him.

Out of 18, I'd wager there's either 4 or 5 mafia..

with an SK, I'm inclined to say 4

. That means there are still 3 out there..

Out of 18, I'd say there'd be 4.. roughly 20%, but the fact there was an SK tips the balance a little, and I'd be inclined to think

3+SK.

Xanatos totally changed his tune overnight, because he had to in order to push this fakeclaim.

Pretty sure this game is over if you lynch me. 4 scum on the scumteam, Parama's dead, 3 remain, and it's 3 scum 3 town tomorrow if scum have an RB and CTD fails to protect.

Scum gambitted knowing that they win if they get a mislynch. Think about it.

8 town power roles, an SK, and only 3 scum?

No way in hell.

7 power roles (Xanatos faking). 4 scum. SK. That sounds balanced.

Xanatos, Yos, Hydra scum. CTD, Iece, MBL, Toasty, DH town.

If they didn't fakeclaim, Yos gets lynched, DX gets vigged, doc protects Iece, they're screwed.

They fakeclaim, MBL gets mislynched, they nightkill any townie and Iece vigs DX unless there's a scum roleblocker. in which case the game is over.

tl;dr:
You guys ignored my play entirely this game and bit on a bullshit power role claim, and we're going to lose as a result.