NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[DemonHybrid]

I'm betting that it's either no-shot, or a shot on DX (Iece thinking the same thing; a maybe-gambit between MBL and DX).

I mean, give it up, Yosarian. Lets do the math.

We have me and Toast; Parama went down as a scum neighbor. What's the likelyhood of two scum in the same neighborhood? Nearly nil, so Toast and I cannot be scum.

CTD has surefire protected Iece. There's so much evidence that points that CTD is telling the truth. Obvious setting-up by scum to try to get him lynched by leaving him alone (or, scum found DX more of a threat).

The interactions between Iece, Shanba and KJ point to Iece being town, as well as some of the shots that he took. Shanba getting shot almost makes him confirmed town, due to the amount of suspicion on him.

That leaves...

13. Yosarian2
16. Hydra (Thor655 + Magister Ludi)**


oh, ok

[DemonHybrid]

Iece CAN claim his action, but does it really matter?

If he shot you or Hydra and you didn't die, that could mean bulletproof scum, could it not?

If he shot DX, that doesn't really answer anything.

If he reserved his shot due to fear of losing in LyLo, or whatever, then that's also a given.

Basically, unless he decided to take a shot at CTD, Toast or me, you're just stalling your own death. And I've got other games to join, so if we could just wrap this up...

[Yosarian2]

You think Icerent would shoot...the confirmed gunsmith who just lynched the mafia roleblocker? What are you, high?

How in the world could you ever have thought of that as a gambit? It was SO OBVIOUS Xantos was town yesterday, and he lynched the MAFIA ROLEBLOCKER, in a game where there was a claimed vig and a claimed cop. That would be the dumbest scum play in the history of the website.

Right now, there's a 90% chance that Hydra is the last scum, and perhaps a 10% chance that Hydra and CTD is scum. The fact that the scum killed the cop and apparently knew he wouldn't get doc protection, despite CTD's promise yesterday to flip a coin, is a pretty big black mark against CTD, but it's possibly Hydra was just that desprate to take a chance, especally if he's kill immune but not gunsmith immune.

[DemonHybrid]

You think Icerent would shoot...the confirmed gunsmith who just lynched the mafia roleblocker? What are you, high?

How in the world could you ever have thought of that as a gambit? It was SO OBVIOUS Xantos was town yesterday, and he lynched the MAFIA ROLEBLOCKER, in a game where there was a claimed vig and a claimed cop. That would be the dumbest scum play in the history of the website.

Right now, there's a 90% chance that Hydra is the last scum, and perhaps a 10% chance that Hydra and CTD is scum. The fact that the scum killed the cop and apparently knew he wouldn't get doc protection, despite CTD's promise yesterday to flip a coin, is a pretty big black mark against CTD, but it's possibly Hydra was just that desprate to take a chance, especally if he's kill immune but not gunsmith immune.

And you joined in 2005? You've had a sheltered mafia career. Haven't seen any game-winning clutch scum vs. scum bus gambits, haven't you?

I remember specifically that everyone asked for Iecerint to be protected, so your point is moot.

[Yosarian2]

If he shot you or Hydra and you didn't die, that could mean bulletproof scum, could it not?

Yes, it almost certainly does. It means that the person he shot is the mafia godfather, and that is the person we're lynching today.

Let me make this even easier; I am not bulletproof. I am a vanilla townie. If I got shot, I would be dead.

Do you really not get why we want to hear Icerent's result before we lynch?

[Yosarian2]

I remember specifically that everyone asked for Iecerint to be protected, so your point is moot.

100% wrong.

I told CTD to flip a coin and either protect Icerent or Xantos.

CTD said he would do it.

[David Xanatos]

I'm entitled to a "bah" post. So here it is.

Have a little respect for the dead, and get my name right.

[DemonHybrid]

You know what, though, I'll humor you.

Unvote, Vote: Hydra

.

It really doesn't matter what order you two will die in. And if one of you happen to be town, then Iece will just shoot the odd man out. If Hydra is town, Iece will just shoot you, and we'll lynch CTD. If Hydra is scum, but you're town, we'll just lynch CTD.

You have no reason to turn this down if you're town.

Preview edit: Toast wanted Iece and Iece alone protected. I wonder who CTD felt like listening to.

[Yosarian2]

For reference:

When MBL flips scum, Icerent shoot hydra, Xantos investigate whoever you want (the three unconfirmed are me, Hydra, and CTD); and CTD, flip a coin and protect either Icerent or Xantos. With any luck, MBL is the scum roleblocker. If he's not, scum are going to try to roleblock one of the power roles and kill the other, but if CTD *is* actually town, they're going to have a hard time doing that. Also, remember, if we don't lynch the roleblocker today, then we have to assume that one of the power roles will fail tonight, so don't worry too much about you both targeting the same person.

Yos' suggested night actions look solid to me.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Just for the principle of the matter, we should really hear Icerent's claim before we lynch anyone, although the only way it could make a difference is if Icerent claims he tried to kill, I donno, CTD or someone, and I don't really see that happening.

So, why not.

Vote:Hydra

[DemonHybrid]

Okay, then I was wrong about where the night actions should go.

Question: Do you find Toast, Iece and I town? All 3 of us.

[Yosarian2]

Yup. You, Toast, and Iece are all confirmed town.

In theory, though, if there are 2 scum left (which, from my point of view, would mean hydra + CTD), if we lynch wrong today, and Icerent somehow fails to kill again tonight, town could lose tonight. I don't think that's likely at all, I just don't want to risk throwing away a won game.

[DemonHybrid]

Fine.

[ToastyToast]

still going to wait...I want to see who CTD protected as well. Hey, you never know!

[Amrun]

VC5.1

(0) DemonHybrid
(0) Iecerint
(0) CrashTextDummie
(0) Yosarian2
(2) Hydra - DemonHybrid, Yosarian2
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Iecerint, CrashTextDummie, Hydra, ToastyToast

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Friday, August 26, 11pm EST

Spoiler: Vote History

DemonHybrid - Yosarian2 > Hydra
Iecerint -
CrashTextDummie -
Yosarian2 - Hydra
Hydra -
ToastyToast -

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

[Yosarian2]

And you joined in 2005? You've had a sheltered mafia career. Haven't seen any game-winning clutch scum vs. scum bus gambits, haven't you?

This is kind of a side point, but...

If there's a lot of confirmed townies, and a vig, and you can't kill the vig right away, then you've got a big problem. Bussing the mafia roleblocker, the one solution TO that problem, would be just terrible scum play. If you REALLY wanted to bus someone, you'd bus someone else. The fact that the scum roleblocker died yesterday is the main reason that now town probably can't lose.

I really don't get why you would have suspected me over Hydra in the first place. You did notice that I really prevented Xantos from being lynched instead of MBL yesterday night, and that the mafia roleblocker staying alive for another day while the cop was dead would have stopped the town from getting into a "can't lose" situation, right? I pretty much won the game for the town yesterday by trusting Xantos over MBL, while Hydra was trying to save MBL by trying to lynch me instead. Not to mention that I also caught the other scum in the first place while protecting you.

Meh. This whole post should probably have waited until post-game discussion, but I'm pretty sure we've won now, lol.

[Iecerint]

I did not shoot last night.

I figure it's OK to come clean about it now that the Roleblocker has flipped. I'm a 2-shot vig. I have no more shots.

I think it's crazyworld that CTD would protect me over DX when the roleblocker flipped, but w/e.

I'm visiting relatives, so I'm V/LA this weekend. Should still be able to post once or twice.

[Iecerint]

And yeah, DX bussing obvtown MBL-the-PR doesn't make any sense at all. There were surely simpler ways to win.

[Hydra]

Vote: Yosarian2

This man is scum. Everything written yesterday applies with a few small changes. I'll have some more time later today to show you exactly why he is scum.

[DemonHybrid]

I did not shoot last night.

I figure it's OK to come clean about it now that the Roleblocker has flipped. I'm a 2-shot vig. I have no more shots.

I think it's crazyworld that CTD would protect me over DX when the roleblocker flipped, but w/e.

I'm visiting relatives, so I'm V/LA this weekend. Should still be able to post once or twice.

It doesn't matter. It just means we have to choose carefully and decide whether or not CTD is telling the truth.

[Hydra]

Also, I read all of today quickly, the fact that Yosarian first thoughts were going straight to claiming that he is 'not bulletproof' and then claiming the player who did get shot it mafia godfather is insane, and then claims 'vanilla townie' as if that proves he isn't mafia, speaks of scum panic and mentality.

[DemonHybrid]

You know, you guys keep using the term "Mafia Godfather" as someone who's bulletproof, rather than someone who shows up as innocent in a cop investigation. That's not usual in today's meta.

[Hydra]

I agree with you and thats why i'm saying Yosarians theory is insane and from a panicked mind.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint, I wish you would have announced this yesterday, or not at all. It would have made my decision on who to protect a no-brainer.

I went with Iecerint over Xanatos in spite of what I told Yos because vigs win endgames and gunsmiths don't. And I figured there was a non-trivial chance of mafia having a godfather type.

I need to reread certain portions of the game in light of MBL-scum, since the assumption that MBL = town pretty much set the cornerstone of how I viewed gamestate. Should get it done by tonight.

[DemonHybrid]

Well, lets assume Hydra is town, and Yos/CTD/Toast (oh god, I hope not) are scum. There's been no quickvote, no quickhammer, and no setting up from either of them with the exception of Yos suspecting Hydra and mostly Hydra alone.