NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[Iecerint]

There is nothing ambiguous about my counterclaim. The term "counterclaim" is pretty clearly defined, and if someone is claiming for reasons that aren't "he claimed my role", it is expected of him to elaborate immediately.

It's valid for a Cop to stay hidden unless absolutely necessary IMPO.

Thanks for the DH facts.

EBWOP: I'm not agreeing that they're lies; only that I can see scum motivations. I had already expressed support for your version of things when you made those posts, and the main function of those posts is to reinforce that universe.

Town could also make those posts, yes. I don't think they're particularly damning.

[Yosarian2]

There is nothing ambiguous about my counterclaim. The term "counterclaim" is pretty clearly defined, and if someone is claiming for reasons that aren't "he claimed my role", it is expected of him to elaborate immediately.

Between the point when Killer claimed doc, and when you counterclaimed, every person in the game posted except Shanba, Icearent, and Hydra. Hydra was your scumbuddy, and Icearent had already claimed doc, so there was almost no risk of you getting counterclaimed by a real doctor at that point; the only person who could even theoretically have still been a doctor was Shanba.

If we lynch Hydra and he flips scum Rolecop, lets think hard between Yosarian and CTD.

Hydra didn't flip scum rolecop though. Here's what he said previous to that:

I'm 98% sure it's Hydra, and about 70% sure on Yos. I might have said this before, but if CTD is scum, I'll congratulate him. If Toasty is scum, I'll pay him my life savings and go live as a hermit.

DH was also the only player I didn't clear in that post Yos so gleefully quoted at the beginning of to today, and therefore the only player that I was not likely to protect.

DH started the day voting me right out of the gate. I convinced him that Hydra was probably scum, I got him to unvote me, and I convinced him that a Hydra-CTD scum team was at least theoretically possible. As the day went on, he seemed to be getting more and more doubt about me being scum, I think I was slowly convincing him. He showed a willingness to listen to me, an open-mindedness, and he was open to the possibility of you being scum. It made perfect sense for you to kill him, based on what he said yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Edit: Icearent had already claimed vig, obviously, not doc. You know what I mean.

[CrashTextDummie]

4 and 5 are errors rather than lies, and not errors likely to ingratiate anyone to him. I don't see the scum motivations, particularly.

Both are attempts to nullify stuff I did that points towards me being town. I can accept the first as an error if he just looked through my ISO, but the second is a clear disconnect in his thought process as it concerns something he said himself. He doesn't remember what he felt was optimal play on that day? Really?

So on one hand there's the theory that I am a scum rolecop that investigated Iecerint on N1 (or after he was exposed, for some reason), and killerjester and Xanatos, all before the dawn of D3. On the other hand, there is the simple truth that I am a doc and Yos is scum.

[Yosarian2]

You investigated Killerjester, obviously. I don't actually know if you investigated Xantos or Iecerint or not. You investigating Xantos would explain the roleblock, but there are other ways to explain that (he may have dropped a power role tell that MBL picked up on or something); and you investigating Iecerint would explain you not killing him, but I would really expect you to kill the confirmed gunsmith no matter what at that point. I guess we'll find out after the game ends; either way, it doesn't really matter.

[CrashTextDummie]

Between the point when Killer claimed doc, and when you counterclaimed, every person in the game posted except Shanba, Icearent, and Hydra. Hydra was your scumbuddy, and Icearent had already claimed doc, so there was almost no risk of you getting counterclaimed by a real doctor at that point; the only person who could even theoretically have still been a doctor was Shanba.

So I could have been counterclaimed by Shanba. Or did I investigate him as well?

DH started the day voting me right out of the gate. I convinced him that Hydra was probably scum, I got him to unvote me, and I convinced him that a Hydra-CTD scum team was at least theoretically possible. As the day went on, he seemed to be getting more and more doubt about me being scum, I think I was slowly convincing him. He showed a willingness to listen to me, an open-mindedness, and he was open to the possibility of you being scum. It made perfect sense for you to kill him, based on what he said yesterday.

DH has maintained a very clear "3-scum-left" stance from D4 onward and only allowed for you to be town if Hydra happened to be the last scum. Him "only" being 78% sure of you being scum served as a reason to vote Hydra over you and nothing more. This is clear from his posting yesterday and from what Toasty posted today.

[CrashTextDummie]

I really feel like I pretty much singlehandedly through sheer force of will stopped Xantos from being lynched for long enough for the breadcrumb to come out.

This made me laugh out loud, btw. At least you have panache, Yos.

[Iecerint]

What can we say about whether a doc PR in the set-up is even plausible? Currently it's:

VT x 5
Alien x 1
Tracker x 1
Innocent Child x1
Gunsmith x 1
Neighbor x 2 (Assuming ToastTown)
Vig x 1

Also WHAT apparently an Alien is a jailkeeper...?!? O.o

[Iecerint]

Oh, jailkeeper + can't hit them with trackers and gunsmiths.

Still, I mean...

[Yosarian2]

Between the point when Killer claimed doc, and when you counterclaimed, every person in the game posted except Shanba, Icearent, and Hydra. Hydra was your scumbuddy, and Icearent had already claimed doc, so there was almost no risk of you getting counterclaimed by a real doctor at that point; the only person who could even theoretically have still been a doctor was Shanba.

So I could have been counterclaimed by Shanba. Or did I investigate him as well?

Sure, you could have been. It was a small risk you took in order to convince the town that you were "confirmed town". All gambits have risks, that's why they're called gambits. That being said, this one was defiantly a good bet on your part; if a scum can trick the town into confirming them as innocent, they usually win.

And like I said, you didn't actually say you were a doctor at the time; you worded your counterclaim in kind of a weird, slightly vague way that left a few inches of space to try to bullshit your way back out of it if Shanba did counterclaim.

DH has maintained a very clear "3-scum-left" stance from D4 onward and only allowed for you to be town if Hydra happened to be the last scum. Him "only" being 78% sure of you being scum served as a reason to vote Hydra over you and nothing more. This is clear from his posting yesterday and from what Toasty posted today.

His last post, before death, expressed doubt about you. He started the day basically 100% sure I was scum; by the time of that post, he had dropped to 78%, and by the end of the day, it sounded like he could go either way on me or you being scum. He was slowly moving in my direction all day, and it scared you. Yeah, based on what Toasty said it sounds like he went back to suspecting me overnight, but you had no way of knowing that.

And, yes, Hydra didn't flip scum rolecop, but that just means that you're the scum rolecop instead, it doesn't actually change anything.

[Yosarian2]

What can we say about whether a doc PR in the set-up is even plausible? Currently it's:

VT x 5
Alien x 1
Tracker x 1
Innocent Child x1
Gunsmith x 1
Neighbor x 2 (Assuming ToastTown)
Vig x 1

Also WHAT apparently an Alien is a jailkeeper...?!? O.o

Yeah...doc+gunsmith+innocent child+vig is pretty iffy. Gunsmith claims, doc dosn't claim, and it could be streight follow-the-cop for days. Add to that an extra confirmed innocent in the innocent child, and a 2 shot vig to shoot 2 of the unconfirmeds, and the setup would probably be pretty badly unbalanced with a doctor.

And, yeah; Alien is the new term for a jailkeeper that actually makes the guy he's targeting completly untargatable instead of just doc+roleblocker.

[Iecerint]

I think lots of information roles -- gunsmith + tracker + IC -- is ALONE enough to rule out a doctor. The fact that there's ALSO a jailkeeper makes doctor crazy AFAICT. O.o

[Iecerint]

Not to mention Neighbors, who're weak information folk.

Did DH say anything that in the QT, Toast?

[CrashTextDummie]

The aliens serves to obfuscate results (and doesn't allow protection chains with the doc), the scum had a roleblock to counter role interaction and there were 3 killing parties involved. I don't see any problem with balance.

[Iecerint]

Is it normal to give town that much power? I don't really know what's normative in Normal games; this is the first one I've played.

[CrashTextDummie]

I can't comment since I don't play frequently enough. Considering that this particular set of powers was more likely to interfere with each other rather than complement each other, it didn't even occur to me to question it.

[Yosarian2]

Heh. The idea that giving town a jailkeeper actually makes the town LESS powerful is pretty absurd. You're really grasping, aren't you CTD?

As a mod, I can't imagine ever saying "Huh, the town seems too powerful, so let me give them another major power role and hope that the new power role screws up and roleblocks the other power roles. Ok, all better."

[Amrun]

VC6.3

(0) Iecerint
(1) CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2
(1) Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
(0) ToastyToast

Not Voting: Iecerint, ToastyToast

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline: Thursday, September 8, 11 pm EST

Spoiler: Vote History

Iecerint
CrashTextDummie - Yosarian2
Yosarian2 - CrashTextDummie
ToastyToast

[ToastyToast]

DH: Yosarian and Hydra were putting on a show because of the amount of time we gave them to distance
If Iecrint works with us, this day should be easy
TT: The whole nomorevigshots was a little sketch tho...at least it took my whole conftown thing away
DH: Don't secondguess it. Trust me and lynch yosarian.

Thats a recap of what happened last night.

[Yosarian2]

Icrint is defiantly town, toasty. He has to be, or else he and Hydra would have lynched David and won.

The fact that it now turns out there were still 3 scum left out of 8 people two days ago, and that we were therefore at lynch or lose, changes everything. It actually makes it much easier to find the scum, because scum act in a very predictable way in a lynch or lose scenerio; they go for the win if they can. That didn't happen, at all, even though both DH and CTD were supporting the David lynch for most of the day, which means that they can't possibly have both been town.

[CrashTextDummie]

Iecerint just needs to get over the paranoia that Yos and Hydra have been building up since 3 days ago. Just look over Yos' posting since the Xanatos claim, it's a fucking clinic on how to pull the wool over a town's eyes.

[...]both DH and CTD were supporting the David lynch for most of the day, which means that they can't possibly have both been town.

This is as blatantly untrue as it is predictable coming from you. Kill one and argue that the other can't possibly be town now.

The set-up is not unbalanced. The mere fact that we are in this situation today, with one scum left at mylo, proves that the set-up was balanced.

And the rolecop theory assumes a one-in-a-million set of circumstances and/or a set of incredibly counter-intuitive plays on my part that are ridiculous beyond believe. There is not a single shred of evidence in support of it. Nothing at all. It was quite literally pulled out of thin air.

Wake up, please.

[Yosarian2]

The mere fact that we are in this situation today, with one scum left at mylo, proves that the set-up was balanced.

The setup is balanced because there was not actually a doc in it. If there was a doc to keep the gunsmith alive, town would have won by now.

[Iecerint]

Whether the set-up is balanced is less important than whether it is normative. Games in New York are tightly-regulated. I'm just not personally aware of the ramifications.

I think CTD and Yos have both questionably used questions of balance inappropriately in the last several posts.

Whatever validity can be attributed to CTD's criticisms of the possibility of a rolecop being in the game, it being "pulled out of a thin air" does not contribute to it.

Neither of you are making this very easy for me. <_<

Toast, is it also your own personal feeling that lynching Yos is the only way to go?

[ToastyToast]

I have from replacing in had bad feelings about yosarian, and as such I do find him scummier than CTD.

The problem for me is that Yosarian came up with a lot of good reasons as to why it makes more sense for CTD to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Whether the set-up is balanced is less important than whether it is normative. Games in New York are tightly-regulated. I'm just not personally aware of the ramifications.

I think CTD and Yos have both questionably used questions of balance inappropriately in the last several posts.

Really, if you actually want to find scum, don't spend all your time looking at how people behave in a 3 or 4 person endgame when the town and the scum are already voting each other. Right now, I want to lynch CTD, and he wants to lynch me; you're not going to figure anything out by reading our posts today, because there's very little difference between town and scum motivations in this kind of situation.

If you want to actually find scum, the way to do it is to read back key points in the game when town and scum have different motivations and will play differently in order to achieve their win conditions. That's when there is the biggest divergence between town play and scum play; that's when you can really tell out which is which.

I've already summarized all of it to the best of my ability, icearent, but if you don't believe me, re-read it for yourself. The most key moment, the point when there is the biggest divergence between scum play and town play, are in lynch or lose moments, along with pretty much any time a mafia member is lynched. We lynched 3 scum this game, on day 2, day 4, and day 5. I would suggest you read those three days and see who you personally think was playing to the town win condition and who was playing to the scum win condition. I also think that the really key turning point of the game was day 4, when the fact that we lynched MBL instead of David turned a guaranteed scum win into what looked like an almost guaranteed town win (the only reason it wasn't was because you were out of shots, but the scum didn't know that). From a scum point of view, they would have been thinking that if they lynched David (or any town) they won; if they lynched MBL they lose.

So read that for yourself, and draw your own conclusions about who makes sense as town and who makes sense as scum. Who was trying to cause a scum victory on day 4, and who was trying to prevent it?

You're really not going to get any alignment information from me and CTD trading walls here; the information that you want is already in the thread.