Open 333 : Carbon-14 - Game ended

Xalxe · Post Post #250 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:17 am

No, I'm saying go with No Lynch and figure out who everyone's investigating.

Whiskers · Post Post #251 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:24 am

In post 248, Xalxe wrote:OHAI there. So we're lynching me because...why now? Not really getting it.

But at any rate, the No Lynch plan sounded way more solid, and I liked the plan of agreeing upon who should be investigated until somebody brought up the idea of "well then scum kills them."

It's an interesting idea, but I don't think that would happen personally. I would try to hunt down a PR rather than kill off a confirmable/future confirmed townie, thought of course that's all WIFOM. But hey, obviously you are doing a wonderful job of ignoring my plans, so...yeah.

I'd vote No Lynch right now, but I'm not sure if that would end the day at this point.

We're wlynching you because you came on yesterday and didn't post, when we were having an activity spike. You did come back, and while you may be scum, you may not be. But we're not lynching you anyway.

I actually agree, and I know that if I were scum, I'd be shooting for whomever I suspected as power roles. The most

sure

course of action would be to kill the confirmed townie, especially since it's you-- Talkative and therefore dangerous.

Go ahead and vote if you want, I don't think it will end the Day-- I'm waiting for Cobblerfone to come in with a confirm or an objection to the plan.

[Preedit]
So Xalxe: We should Decide who we will all investigate, and then No Lynch. Correct?

Xalxe · Post Post #252 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:26 am

Yes, that is the plan that I am backing at this present time.

Whiskers · Post Post #253 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:59 am

Excellent. Now we wait for Cobblerfone, he's supposed to come in today.

Mist7676 · Post Post #254 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:01 am

We do!'t have to wait for cobbler. The plan seems fool proof and cobbler doesn't seem like someone to secretly back away from a plan.

Whiskers · Post Post #255 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:07 am

I know, but I'd really rather not take any chances.
Look, there is nopony that wants a bloodbath more than me, but this is really cool and I think we can pull this out in a win if we play our cards right.

All I need is an "okay" from Cobblerfone and We'll do it.

Xalxe, in case you are an investigative role, investigate whomever you want, but don't tell us the result until you are forced to claim. I've set this up so our Power Roles stay hidden, and if you are one, I think it works best that you stay hidden too.

saulres · Post Post #256 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:14 am

I'm still having problems with doing the first set of reveals tomorrow. If we hit scum, that means we're sacrificing our effective PR in exchange for that scum, and not giving the PR a chance to find another one, ever.

But if we do go ahead with it, we have to be clear: Xalxe is the one to be investigated tonight? I don't remember seeing that specifically decided on yet; I thought Mist was also up for investigation.

Xalxe · Post Post #257 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:16 am

In post 256, saulres wrote:But if we do go ahead with it, we have to be clear: Xalxe is the one to be investigated tonight? I don't remember seeing that specifically decided on yet; I thought Mist was also up for investigation.

^relevant

Whiskers · Post Post #258 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:30 am

In post 256, saulres wrote:I'm still having problems with doing the first set of reveals tomorrow. If we hit scum, that means we're sacrificing our effective PR in exchange for that scum, and not giving the PR a chance to find another one, ever.

But if we do go ahead with it, we have to be clear: Xalxe is the one to be investigated tonight? I don't remember seeing that specifically decided on yet; I thought Mist was also up for investigation.

Starting from the bottom: Yes, at least, that's what I understood. The only pony who didn't want that (who said anything, at least) was DonJosh, and he's up for a Xalxe-vestigation anyway.

Now:
There's already a good chance our PR will die N1. If we hit scum then we're trading a PR for a Scum. Depending on how CCs go, we might get two scum.

Now. If there is a guilty, we COULD leave it and NoLynch again the next night. But this gives the scum two shots to take out our effective PR, and that would leave us with NO information. There's probably some math I could do, but my brain isn't up to it right now and it isn't necessary.

If we get a guilty and there is no CC or anything, then we've traded our PR for a scum and we can find the other scum (easily) via hunting. Town wins.

Whiskers · Post Post #259 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:35 am

saulres, you jump up in suspicion. So much.
By trying to disarm the plan. However, I thought for a few minutes and it makes sense that we would want all the kinks worked out beforehand.

I'll say this: It's not a fool-proof plan. Town can still very easily lose, even if we Catch a scum N1 and no PR dies. But I think it skyrockets our chance of winning.

saulres · Post Post #260 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:39 am

PEDIT: I'm not trying to disarm the plan, I'm trying to get all the kinks worked out and make sure we go in with the best plan. Here's the math:

Today we have 7 players, 2 scum.

Investigate a scum. Tomorrow we have:
6 players, 2 scum.

Assuming the effective PR survives the night (this whole thing goes out the window if they kill a PR tonight and the other PR didn't find a scum):

Reveal:
We lynch the scum and lose all investigative chances. Day 3 we have:
4 players, 1 scum.

Don't Reveal and do it again:
Scum have a 1 in 4 chance of killing the effective PR. Day 3 we have:
5 players, 2 scum.

If the effective PR is still alive (75% chance), we have two reads. Worst case the PR clears one town (and themself) and identifies 1 townie, leaving two unknown. Best case -- we know

everything

. Either we have 3 confirmed townies, or 2 confirmed scum. Game over, town wins.

So the choice, as I see it, is this:
Reveal tomorrow and play the rest of the game 3 VT vs. 1 scum.
Don't reveal tomorrow and have a 75% chance of outright winning, and a 25% chance of playing endgame 2VT vs. 1 scum.

I'm up for the 75% chance.

PEDIT: Oh wait that doesn't work, because if we only have 1 PR at that time and they show all clear we know nothing at all. DAMMIT!

Okay, screw it, that lowers the chances too much I think. I'll have to do the math later (I can do it during the night) so I'm not going to hold us up once cobbler offers his input.

Whiskers · Post Post #261 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:44 am

Yeah, I don't think we can clear any PR until they either 1: die or 2: are CC'd and the CCer flips scum

Also, it's only 25% chance of NKing an effective PR

IF

they shoot randomly. For example, I already know who both PRs are.

saulres · Post Post #262 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:50 am

In post 261, Whiskers wrote:I already know who both PRs are.

Wait what?

Are you the GM playing under an alt?

In any case, I've reviewed the thread and it looks like it's unanimous (barring cobbler) on Xalxe being investigated tonight. Sorry for forgetting that.

Mist in 210
Whiskers in 216
me in 218
konid in 221
DonJosh in 222 and 223: Xalxe okay, would prefer Mist

Xalxe · Post Post #263 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:57 am

Whiskers, that's....I really don't like that. Honestly, I don't; I don't go around looking for PRs as town. That behavior seems really suspicious to me.

Whiskers · Post Post #264 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:00 am

Okay, let me rephrase that: I

think

I know who both of them are.

Xalxe: Why? You get scum reads, you get town reads. Sometimes you pick up on a player being not just a VT. I haven't done any rolefishing, I haven't been actively searching the PR, as such, but I put my vote on you, ultimately, because you are scummy AND I'm pretty confident you're not a PR.

Xalxe · Post Post #265 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:01 am

Hmm, well, I do believe you're wrong, but it'll take the investigations to prove that.

Whiskers · Post Post #266 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:08 am

Actually, if you ARE a PR, toNight's investigation won't do you any good (for clearing you). If you get a guilty, save it until later that Day (2) or perhaps until Day 3, if you think you can risk living that long.

What I'm really hoping is that you're scum and we catch ya.

Since we're just waiting for Cobblerfone right now, What happened yesterday, Xalxe, that you never came on and posted for us?

Xalxe · Post Post #267 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:13 am

In post 266, Whiskers wrote:Actually, if you ARE a PR, toNight's investigation won't do you any good (for clearing you). If you get a guilty, save it until later that Day (2) or perhaps until Day 3, if you think you can risk living that long.

What I'm really hoping is that you're scum and we catch ya.

Since we're just waiting for Cobblerfone right now, What happened yesterday, Xalxe, that you never came on and posted for us?

Au contraire, if I am a PR and nobody gets guilties, I'm free and clear.

At any rate, I avoided the game yesterday because I didn't want to get into a ragefest with you. I left Friday night irritated and I figured I needed time to cool down. I was going to come on later today anyway; the prod just expedited that. Ouch!

Whiskers · Post Post #268 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:21 am

*facehoof* Yeah. I don't know what I was thinking.

What? What ragefest?
*goes back to look*

Xalxe · Post Post #269 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:22 am

There were some words tossed around that started with "F" and ended with "ucking," and I was about to go on a tirade that wouldn't help anyone.

Whiskers · Post Post #270 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:25 am

Okay-- fair enough.

Hey, did you ever tell who you would want to investigate?

Whether or not you are really a PR, you should have an investigative target-- That's the first player who will reveal their result.

saulres · Post Post #271 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:31 am

Wait, why? That doesn't seem like a good idea. I see no benefit in him telling the scum who he's going to investigate, and I see much WIFOM if he does.

Xalxe · Post Post #272 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:32 am

In post 271, saulres wrote:Wait, why? That doesn't seem like a good idea. I see no benefit in him telling the scum who he's going to investigate, and I see much WIFOM if he does.

This. It'd be very easy for the scum to kill PlayerX and for me to say "Uh guys...I'm a PR, honest...and I investigated PlayerX...please believe me...*sob*"

saulres · Post Post #273 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:34 am

Or for them to kill Xalxe and say "Hey! The player Xalxe was going to investigate must be scum trying to avoid getting caught!"

Or, etc.

Whiskers · Post Post #274 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:02 am

@Xalxe: if the player dies, you simply don't claim. If you ARE a PR, then you've outted yourself, but can't be cleared. If you are NOT a PR (but still a townie), then you've no reason to do this. If you are Scum, then the real PR will CC and we will lynch you for scum.

In fact, if the player stays alive, you don't claim anyway.

@saulres: BECAUSE he doesn't claim, unless we decide he needs to, there's really no reason to NK the secondary investigate target. Scum will (likely) kill whomever they think is the PR.

If they DO kill Xalxe, we will use that piece of information in our scumhunting. We will not base our entire case on something that is WIFOM, but We will not necessarily discount it either. Just because something is subject to WIFOM does not mean it is not a tell. It is still information, information that I wish to have. If you guys think it's a bad idea, it's not necessary.

Case-by-case basis. We'll see what happens, then we'll analyze.
Remember, unless we get a guilty tomorrow with no CC, we'll have a whole other Day to decide who to investigate, a whole other Night to investigate them, and a whole THIRD Day to find and lynch our scum.

The worst case scenario to this is the same as the originial, "NoLynch Twice" plan-- you lose two townies, and probably gain no information.