Mini 301: Berry Kingdom Mafia II -- (Game Over!!)

[Ameliaslay]

That does put a hole in my theory-- which was really the only one I had

[TheCesspit]

I'd rather wait on Ameliaslay than pretend that one of us

must

be scum. In short, I'd like to hear from everyone who hasn't been talking much.

Yes, I've seen to agressive townies go at each other before, but my best guess is there's one of the two is scum. And thats the best I can do right now.

Ameliaslay theory is gone, shame I was hoping something would lift from my eyes with it

[Ameliaslay]

*Bump Is all art of speaking dead? Did anyone else speculate on the theory...etc.? In this case perhaps silence is not golden..

[TheCesspit]

*Bump Is all art of speaking dead? Did anyone else speculate on the theory...etc.? In this case perhaps silence is not golden..

I did as I'd consider it already but rejected it as the facts so far fit LLoyd being exactly who he claims.

[Cherry]

lloyd is telling the truth if u ask me. i thought he could b trying to cover up with his claim back when he first told us but i dont see a reason against him.

[Yosarian2]

So, Cherry, who do you think is scum?

At this point I am suspicious of you, Cherry, as you have contributed less then everyone else and I would expect scum to try and just stay quiet and just fly under the radar.

[Lloyd]

I'm posting the following in all my games:

I'll be away from next Monday, May 15th to the following Tuesday, May 23rd.

If my absence could hold up this game, then go ahead and replace me in advance, and let me know that I've been replaced.

I'd rather be replaced, than hold up games. Thus, I am sending out this note in advance.

- Before Monday, May 15th...I'll post as I come across new analyses, unless I am replaced beforehand.

- After Tuesday, May 23rd...If I am still in the game by then, I'll re-join at that time.

[Cherry]

i would expect anyone to suspect me seeing as u dont know my circumstances.

at the moment i dont really suspect anyone. no one has said ne thing drastic to point them out to me. everyone seems to be playing it safe. im continuing to rule out who can not be mafia instead trying to find out who is mafia. as of now...

i dont expect lloyd because of his claim and dont see a point in focusing on CA if he's going to be role-blocked.

Yosarian2 pointed out that i hadnt said ne thing in a while which is protown to me.

as far as suspecting someone, ameliaslay is catching my attention in that she hasnt done much as far as trying to nab scum and the only time she said something was weak and not very well thought out. but im still waiting to see how that progresses

[Bacde]

I think Ameilia's attempt to find a scum was much more protown than your sitting around.

Ugh.

[Yosarian2]

At this point, I think I'm probably going to vote for either Cherry or The Cesspit to be lynched. I think they're both likely to be scum, for different reasons.

[Bacde]

I'm not feeling vibes from The Cesspit. My two cents.

[Yosarian2]

The main reason I'm suspicious of The Cesspit is this:

Also, I find it interesting that CA had 2 votes sitting on him for a while, got as high as 3 votes, but wasn't speedlynched, in a situation where a CA lynch would probably have caused a scum win. That makes suspect that there may have already been at least one scum on his bandwagon, and there might have been two.

Him and Llyod had their votes on CA for a very long time, and no speedlynch appeared. Could be that the scum were just being careful, but I think it's more likely that one of the people already voting for CA were scum, and I trust Llyod for the moment.

Also, when I mentioned that, he responded in such a way that it looked like an attempt to confuse the issue, not an honest attempt on his part to find scum:

If you look at CA's Tracker post, he tries to pin the blame on Yosarian2. Why that particular player?

It seems the Scum and CA both hit Coron over night. Why? He'd not flagged 'cop' to me.

What sort of Berry is the Serial Killer, out of interest?

"Yosarian2, TheCesspit, Cherry, Bacde, Ziliu, and Ameliaslay. "

Of that list, Yosarian, TheCesspit and Bacde voted for CA at some point.

If we are looking at speedlynch not happening (though you have to assume log in times for all people and not everyone did post in the window, I think), then someone in that list is scum.

But I'm not sure Cherry, Ziliu or Ameliaslay had the chance to speedlynch, so not sure that an infalliable marker.

I'll go for my trademark tactic of stating the bleeding obvious: There's probably one mafia in EACH group.

"Yosarian, TheCesspit and Bacde voted for CA at some point...If we are looking at speedlynch not happening (though you have to assume log in times for all people and not everyone did post in the window, I think), then someone in that list is scum."


Technically true, but he didn't mention the fact that right after I voted, I unvoted before anyone else even had a chance to post. (I voted right before bed, and I unvoted at 5:00 AM the next morning; it's kind of funny, I woke up to go to work and the first thing I thought that morning was "holy crap, we can't lynch the SK, we'll lose") So there was no chance for the scum to speedlynch while my vote was on there. In any case, while you could try to read something into my alignment with my vote, my vote dosn't answer the question of "why was there no speedlynch".

So that would leave just you and him, Bacde. According to his own logic, at least one of the two of you should be scum. If he believed that, why didn't he attack you on the issue? Why did he FOS you but then defend you later, do a post by post analysis of you and go though all your posts in detail, but never mention the issue at all?

I think he realized that the whole thing made him look bad, and just decided to ignore it and hope everyone else forgot about the whole thing.

[Cherry]

So that would leave just you and him, Bacde. According to his own logic, at least one of the two of you should be scum. If he believed that, why didn't he attack you on the issue? Why did he FOS you but then defend you later, do a post by post analysis of you and go though all your posts in detail, but never mention the issue at all?

I think he realized that the whole thing made him look bad, and just decided to ignore it and hope everyone else forgot about the whole thing.

wait r u thinking they could be in on it together and bacde didnt vote him because he's mafia too?

[Commodore Amazing]

I'm probably going to be replaced in this game. Let's see if I can help Blackberry find someone...

Actually, I'll probably get killed as soon as we go to night, so maybe I won't get replaced after all.

[TheCesspit]

The main reason I'm suspicious of The Cesspit is this:

Also, I find it interesting that CA had 2 votes sitting on him for a while, got as high as 3 votes, but wasn't speedlynched, in a situation where a CA lynch would probably have caused a scum win. That makes suspect that there may have already been at least one scum on his bandwagon, and there might have been two.

Him and Llyod had their votes on CA for a very long time, and no speedlynch appeared. Could be that the scum were just being careful, but I think it's more likely that one of the people already voting for CA were scum, and I trust Llyod for the moment.

This isn't true. You made the SK accusation at 10:33, April 17th. CA claimed SK at 20:05. I removed my vote 4hours 30min later, 02:29, April 19th. For only a short period of time (6 hours) was CA at 3 votes for the first time. The second time I didn't post, as I suspect I didn't even log in.

Thats not a long time. Note Lloyd still has his vote on (for the reason he doesn't believe the SK claim).

Also, when I mentioned that, he responded in such a way that it looked like an attempt to confuse the issue, not an honest attempt on his part to find scum:

If you look at CA's Tracker post, he tries to pin the blame on Yosarian2. Why that particular player?

A good question, I thought. Lets try to get in the SK's head.

It seems the Scum and CA both hit Coron over night. Why? He'd not flagged 'cop' to me.

What sort of Berry is the Serial Killer, out of interest?

Just searching for answers to fill the story out. And we get to the meat of the argument:

"Yosarian2, TheCesspit, Cherry, Bacde, Ziliu, and Ameliaslay. "

List of unclaimed players, and we figure there is at least two scum in that, if not three.

Of that list, Yosarian, TheCesspit and Bacde voted for CA at some point.

If we are looking at speedlynch not happening (though you have to assume log in times for all people and not everyone did post in the window, I think), then someone in that list is scum.

So how exactly is my looking at a logical process here NOT helpful in finding scum? You look like your trying to build a strawman.

But I'm not sure Cherry, Ziliu or Ameliaslay had the chance to speedlynch, so not sure that an infalliable marker.

I'll go for my trademark tactic of stating the bleeding obvious: There's probably one mafia in EACH group.

I seriously mean it when I say 'trademark'. I often state the obvious, which is apparently 'unhelpful' and 'scummy'. It just helps me lay my thoughts out.

"Yosarian, TheCesspit and Bacde voted for CA at some point...If we are looking at speedlynch not happening (though you have to assume log in times for all people and not everyone did post in the window, I think), then someone in that list is scum."

Technically true, but he didn't mention the fact that right after I voted, I unvoted before anyone else even had a chance to post. (I voted right before bed, and I unvoted at 5:00 AM the next morning; it's kind of funny, I woke up to go to work and the first thing I thought that morning was "holy crap, we can't lynch the SK, we'll lose") So there was no chance for the scum to speedlynch while my vote was on there.

6 hours, and you assume that during that time no-one else is awake. As you may spot with the times I post, I'm in a different time zone to you. Another European player could post in those six hours.

In any case, while you could try to read something into my alignment with my vote, my vote dosn't answer the question of "why was there no speedlynch".

Non-sequitir coming up...

So that would leave just you and him, Bacde. According to his own logic, at least one of the two of you should be scum. If he believed that, why didn't he attack you on the issue? Why did he FOS you but then defend you later, do a post by post analysis of you and go though all your posts in detail, but never mention the issue at all?

Why does YOUR vote not answer it, but mine and Bacde's point suspicion? I saw your theory, wasn't sure, and once it was clear that CA was claiming SK and the level we have the game at, I unvoted.

I think he realized that the whole thing made him look bad, and just decided to ignore it and hope everyone else forgot about the whole thing.

I attacked Bacde, as I was/still am suspicious, hence my Post-by-Post trying to find some evidence. My analysis didn't look at my own posts to closely to see what I'd spotted before. Bad move, I'll admit. So no mention of it. I then withdrew the FoS as I didn't see a good reason to vote for him. If I had considered one, I'd have voted him.

Yes I have 'defended' him, purely on the basis I was not convinced at that time that he's scum, so did want to lynch someone I considered to be Town.

I'm no longer as sure as I was after my PBP that Bacde is Town, after ziliu made some very interesting points.

[Blackberry]

getting replacements!

[Yosarian2]

wait r u thinking they could be in on it together and bacde didnt vote him because he's mafia too?

Basically, I was thinking that if there were two townies on the bandwagon, then I would expect the scum to pile on. And the only person who "bit" was Bacde. However, it is worth noting that neither you nor Zilu posed the entire time there were two votes sitting on CA.

[Ameliaslay]

This isn't true. You made the SK accusation at 10:33, April 17th. CA claimed SK at 20:05. I removed my vote 4hours 30min later, 02:29, April 19th. For only a short period of time (6 hours) was CA at 3 votes for the first time. The second time I didn't post, as I suspect I didn't even log in.

Unless it's a typo, from April the 17th to the 19th is a day and four hours, slight flaw in that argument.

[TheCesspit]

There should be an 'April 18th' after the 20:05 time for the CA SK.

I'll post a proper time line later.

[Yosarian2]

Why does YOUR vote not answer it, but mine and Bacde's point suspicion? I saw your theory, wasn't sure, and once it was clear that CA was claiming SK and the level we have the game at, I unvoted.

Ok, let me explain. This was the order of events.

Post 83: TheCesspit vote for CA (1 vote on CA)

Post 87: I vote for CA (2 votes on CA)

Post 88: I unvote CA (1 vote on CA)

Post 92: Lloyd votes CA (2 votes on CA)

Post 98:Bacde votes CA (3 votes on CA)

Post 101: CA claims

Post 102: Bacde unvotes CA (2 votes on CA)

Post 103: You unvote CA (1 vote on CA)

...

If you want to try to read something into the fact the me and TheCesspit were both voting CA for 6 hours and nothing happened, feel free, but personally, what I'm mostly interested in is the period that you and Lloyd were both voting for CA. From post 92 to post 103, there were always at least 2 votes on CA, which, if there are 3 mafia and if both people on the wagon were town, would be enough for the mafia to pull off a speedlynch.

Now, I would expect that if two townies were sitting on someone who was not in the mafia (the mafia would probably neither know nor care if the person was a townie or a SK), in a situation where one mislynch probably leads to a mafia win, the mafia would want to jump on the wagon quickly; 2 townie+3 scum=a lynch.

At first, the made me suspicious of Bacde, but if he was scum, then even after CA claimed, I would have expected him to delay unvoting him, say he didn't believe his claim, or just not post for a bit after that, or do something to stall unvoting, to give his scum-mates a chance to jump on and finish the wagon.

So I think the most likely possibilites are during this period either there already was one scum on the wagon (which would probably be you, TheCesspit, as I mostly trust Lloyd right now) or that the scum knew they couldn't pull off a speedlynch because at least one of their scum-mates was nowhere to be found during this period (Zilu and Cherry did not post at all during this time).

[quote="Yosarian]
I think he realized that the whole thing made him look bad, and just decided to ignore it and hope everyone else forgot about the whole thing.

I attacked Bacde, as I was/still am suspicious, hence my Post-by-Post trying to find some evidence. My analysis didn't look at my own posts to closely to see what I'd spotted before. Bad move, I'll admit. So no mention of it. I then withdrew the FoS as I didn't see a good reason to vote for him. If I had considered one, I'd have voted him.

Yes I have 'defended' him, purely on the basis I was not convinced at that time that he's scum, so did want to lynch someone I considered to be Town.

I'm no longer as sure as I was after my PBP that Bacde is Town, after ziliu made some very interesting points.[/quote][/quote]

As I was saying, I find it suspicious that you seemed to understand the point that one of the people voting for CA was quite probably scum, and yet never mentioned this again when doing a detailed analysis of Bacde.

[Bacde]

Yosarian2 you pointed out yourself that were I scum trying to quicklynch, than I wouldn't have quickly unvoted. There was not much timespan between those two posts (obviously not enough for scum to hop on).

And I think I voted for CA after he claimed, hold on.

[Bacde]

I guess its a WIFOM argument, but it is true that what I did at least would be uncommon for a scum to do.

[Ameliaslay]

^^I think I agree that it would be odd for a scum to so quickly unvote...So then the ones to focus on, if I get this right are ziliu and cherry?

[TheCesspit]

Thanks for the SoE here. I think it's quite a critical time. I've just placed times on the posts as well to clear up the times as well.

Post 83: TheCesspit vote for CA (1 vote on CA) (17 Apr 4:47pm)

Post 87: I vote for CA (2 votes on CA) (17 Apr 10:33pm)

Post 88: I unvote CA (1 vote on CA) (18 Apr 4:43am)

Post 92: Lloyd votes CA (2 votes on CA) (18 Apr 10:40am)

Post 98:Bacde votes CA (3 votes on CA)(18 Apr 6:37pm)

Post 101: CA claims (18 Apr 8:05pm)

Post 102: Bacde unvotes CA (2 votes on CA) (18 Apr 8:16pm)

Post 103: You unvote CA (1 vote on CA) (19 Apr 2:29am)

...

As you say, ziliu and Cherry didn't post. Ameliaslay comment interests me, but I am beginning to think I'm seeing Mafia everywhere. This isn't helpful so I'm going to look away for a day or so and let others come in.

If you want to try to read something into the fact the me and TheCesspit were both voting CA for 6 hours and nothing happened, feel free, but personally, what I'm mostly interested in is the period that you and Lloyd were both voting for CA. From post 92 to post 103, there were always at least 2 votes on CA, which, if there are 3 mafia and if both people on the wagon were town, would be enough for the mafia to pull off a speedlynch.

Now, I would expect that if two townies were sitting on someone who was not in the mafia (the mafia would probably neither know nor care if the person was a townie or a SK), in a situation where one mislynch probably leads to a mafia win, the mafia would want to jump on the wagon quickly; 2 townie+3 scum=a lynch.

You make one vital assumption in this, which worries me. You analysis doesn't take into account that CA could -still- be Mafia. If so, then twin-Townie was on the vote, so no mafia-speed-lynch would occur as no Mafia would lynch their scumbuddy.

So we could take the complete reverse approach and look at who DIDN'T vote for Commodore Amazing.

So I think the most likely possibilites are during this period either there already was one scum on the wagon (which would probably be you, TheCesspit, as I mostly trust Lloyd right now) or that the scum knew they couldn't pull off a speedlynch because at least one of their scum-mates was nowhere to be found during this period (Zilu and Cherry did not post at all during this time).

Which leaves us Ziliu and Cherry again, and I'm reticent about hanging people on that sort of sketchy ground.

I'd like to see more from the quieter ones, you must have some good ideas, or spotted a tell.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2 you pointed out yourself that were I scum trying to quicklynch, than I wouldn't have quickly unvoted. There was not much timespan between those two posts (obviously not enough for scum to hop on).

And I think I voted for CA after he claimed, hold on.

Yeah, like I said, i think it's unlikely you're scum right now.

I'm most suspicious of TheCesspit and the two lurkers.