Well, the reason I first came to the conclusion that CA was probably the SK was based on his day 1 action. To recap:TheCesspit wrote:You make one vital assumption in this, which worries me. You analysis doesn't take into account that CA could -still- be Mafia. If so, then twin-Townie was on the vote, so no mafia-speed-lynch would occur as no Mafia would lynch their scumbuddy.Y2 wrote: If you want to try to read something into the fact the me and TheCesspit were both voting CA for 6 hours and nothing happened, feel free, but personally, what I'm mostly interested in is the period that you and Lloyd were both voting for CA. From post 92 to post 103, there were always at least 2 votes on CA, which, if there are 3 mafia and if both people on the wagon were town, would be enough for the mafia to pull off a speedlynch.
Now, I would expect that if two townies were sitting on someone who was not in the mafia (the mafia would probably neither know nor care if the person was a townie or a SK), in a situation where one mislynch probably leads to a mafia win, the mafia would want to jump on the wagon quickly; 2 townie+3 scum=a lynch.
After ciprian turned out to be town it was pretty clear to everyone that CA was a lying bad guy, even before he came out and lied about my night action the next day. But if CA was mafia, he would have already known ciprian would turn out to be a good guy, and he should have already known that the action would make him look bad. So why would a mafia do that when ciprian was clearly going to get lynched anyway?Commodore Amazing wrote:I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. Doctor, you get one guess as to why I lynched ciprian before he claimed.Yosarian2 wrote:Just to be clear, I do want ciprian to at least have a chance to defend himself and/or claim before he gets lynched. That should probably go without saying, especally when this whole bandwagon is mostly based on a gut feeling, but I figured I'd better say it anyway.
vote: ciprian
I was thinking about this for a while, and the only logical possibility I could come up with, assuming CA was acting in a rational manner, was that CA must have expected that ciprian WOULD turn out to be scum, therefore "proving" his cop claim, and at the same time keeping the doctor on him for the rest of the game. The play would only makes sense if CA was the Serial Killer, or some similar kind of bad guy who didn't actually know beforehand who was scum and who wasn't. If CA was the SK, then the gamit makes perfect sense; SK's have a fairly low chance of winning, but if could set it up where you might be able make yourself both almost lynchproof (as a claimed cop who's given the town scum will rarely get lynched) and get doc protection for the rest of the game to protect yourself from mafia nightkills, you'd have a much better chance of winning. It's the only theory I could come up with to explain his actions.
Honestly, I do agree that my whole line of logic here is rather sketchy and based on more assumptions then I'd like, which is why I didn't really persue it right away. We were kind of getting stuck, though, so I figured I might as well share my speculations and see if it led anywhere. If anyone has a better suggestion of where to look for scum, I'm all ears.TheCesspit wrote:Which leaves us Ziliu and Cherry again, and I'm reticent about hanging people on that sort of sketchy ground.
In any case, the mod said we might have replacements soon, and that might help.
