Weather Mafia II (GAME OVER)

[Thestatusquo]

Kuribo.... is exactly right.

I don't think I've ever heard this said before...

On a serious note, does anyone have a good handle on fate this game? I find him consistently hard to read and this OMG PUSH PUSH PUSH thing seems consistent with him both town and scum. Anyone have any insight?

[Amrun]

Eh, I think Fate's town here. Multi-scum throws things off a bit. If it weren't multi-scum, I would think Fate was town almost without question. I think some of his scumhunting has been genuine.

On the other hand, he prides himself on reading me and has done an abysmal job in this game. He picked me as a target before he read the game and then just kind of stuck with it and made me "fit" in his view as scum, even though he kind of sheeped me onto kuribo. That doesn't feel very genuine.

I'm a little conflicted, but overall, I do lean town on him.

[Benmage]

^Thats the problem Staeg. I dont think you've done anything memorable. Even now at L-1 instead of giving reads or trying to illustrate why your town, all I'm getting is this blasé attitude.

There's nothing screaming that I want you around. And with noone else glaring, there's no reason not to see you hang, and see what tomorrow brings.

fwiw this is a horrible attitude to have not on day 1.

Why?

[Benmage]

Yos

other than Poro, who do you want lynched. Like a top 3.

[Glork]

Vote Count 3.5

Staeg 6 (Benmage, DrippingGoofball, Fate, kondi2424, Untrod Tripod, kuribo)
kuribo 1 (Amrun)
Porochaz 1 (Yosarian2)
Shadoweh 1 (Staeg)
Amrun 1 (Thestatusquo)

Not Voting: 3 (Porochaz, Shadoweh, Tierce)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is set for Thursday, April 12, at 1:00am EDT.

[Benmage]

INFACT

everyone give a top 3 they'd like to see lynched please.

[Amrun]

Kuribo.... is exactly right.

I don't think I've ever heard this said before...

On a serious note, does anyone have a good handle on fate this game? I find him consistently hard to read and this OMG PUSH PUSH PUSH thing seems consistent with him both town and scum. Anyone have any insight?

By the way, the promises that you'll catch up are getting a little stale. This is akin to a prod dodge.


My top three are

kuribo

,

Porochaz

, and

TSQ

.

The prod dodges are getting really old from TSQ and I've seen him posting about how he "usually" focuses in too much detail when he plays... Is that because he's "usually" town?

He was also too sure on D1 that it was multiscum.

He is very unlikely to be bluescum, though.

[Benmage]

unvote

[Tierce]

Amrun, is there

anyone

you think might be bluescum?

[Amrun]

Well, that's a good question... I thought UberNinja was blue scum, but he clearly wasn't.

I think Porochaz is a decent candidate for blue scum.

kuribo COULD be bluescum but is more likely redscum.

[Tierce]

Poro is not bluescum

. I can almost stake my life on this.

How many times do I have to repeat things about BB's meta. ;_; Prozac is NOT BB's partner.

Try again.

[Tierce]

And no, this isn't anything from a PR result, I do not have a bluecop inno in Poro, but unless we get to LyLo with living bluescum, I am NOT even going to consider bluePoro.

[Amrun]

I don't really care whether you consider bluePoro or not right at this moment. You're not in charge of this town.

I don't care what color scum we lynch in any case so long as it's scum.

[Yosarian2]

Yos

other than Poro, who do you want lynched. Like a top 3.

meh, that's a fair question. I don't really have many strong scum reads right now other then poro, but I've got enough strong town reads that I should be able to give you a general idea. In fact, like I said earlier this game, I still have too many town reads. Anyway, here's my reads from most townish to least townish:

Confirmed town:
Benmage
DGB-I'd assume she was town anyway, + what looks like a cop breadcrumb from singer

Obv town:
Amrun

Pretty Town:
Thestatusquo - Feels town-ish, pretty good voting record. Was on the BB wagon early. Also TSQ comes out looking good from the Reck-TSQ interaction on day 1, IMHO.

Fate- I'm not usually good at reading Fate, but:
-I really don't think he's blue scum with Kats; my biggest scumtell on Kats was that Kats was following Fate's lead for no reason, which makes sense if Fate is town and Kats is hiding behind his coat-tails and buddying, but doesn't make sense if they're scum together.
-I don't think he's red scum with Reckoner either; Reck was, at one point, going at SK (the guy Fate replaced) pretty hard. Not 100% sure about this one, but it doesn't really feel like a bus attempt to me.

Nullish/townish/I donno
kondi2424 (replaces MattP D2): MattP really felt like newbtown on day 1. I mean, take a look at this post:

:vote: bbmolla

Either doctor or scum I'm gonna guess scum

"yay we got a scum"

So many things wrong with that post, and yet it's so unlikely to come from a scum


Kondi, though, has been pretty useless so far.


Shadoweh (replaces farside22 D1): Yesterday, I suspected him of being scum with BB who pushed a counterwagon, but after he helped me push Kats yesterday that seems less likely. Doesn't seem that scummy in general.

Kuribo: I really don't have a strong read on him, and I don't know why; he's been pretty active. He did help with the BB wagon.

Untrod Tripod: He's generally given me good gut feelings. But his voting record really isn't good, and he's spent a lot of time fighting with people who we now know are town, like uberninja. I don't like putting him this low on the list, but I'm not confident of him.

Staeg (replaces Nuwen N1, who replaced valacirca D1, who replaced Korts D1): Really not happy with his play. Nuwen felt town-ish, but then again she did defend scum. Staeg has been pretty worthless. I donno; for some reason, I don't really think this wagon is that likely to hit scum, but if Staeg doesn't start playing I might join it anyway.

Tierce: Did help with BB wagon yesterday, but a lot of stuff about her bugs me. Really dislike the way she went after Amrun.

Porochaz: I'd bet money at this point that he's scum.

Other then Porochaz, I am afraid to say that while I'm quite confident about the town side of the list, the bottom of the list is pretty fuzzy. I do think that the scum are within the group of:

(Porochaz, Tierce, Staeg, Untrod Tripod, Kuribo, Shadoweh)

Assuming there's 3 scum left (2 red + 1 blue), I'm pretty confident that they're all in that group of 6 people. I really wnat to lynch Porochaz, I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point. Other then that, I'd be ok lynching Staeg, possibly Tierce (although i'd want to question her a lot more first) and maaayybe UT, although I don't really want to go there today.

[Tierce]

Amrun: Wrong answer. You should be willing to lynch bluescum over redscum, we have more bluescum dead and we want to eliminate a kill.

Why do YOU think Poro may be

bluescum

?

[Yosarian2]

Uh, Tierce, I'd be perfectly happy lynching anyone from either group scum today. If we lynch bluescum, we hopefully eliminate a kill, which gives us more time; if we lynch redscum, we have a chance at a crosskill, which helps our odds of winning significantly. Either way, we'd be going into night with just 2 scum left out of 12 (assuming we started 3 blue 3 red), which is a great place for us to be.

[Tierce]

With dead redscum we have a chance at a crosskill but it is far more likely that town dies in the process; trusting crosskills to weed out multiscum kills town. :/ I can't judge, I don't have a decent bluescum read on anyone, but as I said--I can all but stake my life in that Poro is not bluescum and it worries me a lot that he may be lynched further down the road on that premise. You have no idea how much work it is to read BB the more games I play with him (finished an offsite game with him, we were both town), but at the stage his Poro read happened, that is NOT a buddy read.

You said you want to question me--out with it.

[Amrun]

The thing that makes me think Poro might be bluescum is the same thing that you insist means he is not.

Let's review:

Poro - Initial posting looked good, but then he followed it up with some active filler jokes and provided no further reads. He later votes Uber commenting that the quality of his posts were "crap," but I don't really think this is true scumhunting, it looks more like him trying to appear to be doing something.

He's kind of scummy, but there's something telling me that he might be town, so null on him for now.

Tierce - I'm conflicted. She seemed scummy at first, then for a while she seemed town, but the bullshit she's pulled to push my lynch through un-nerves the crap out of me. She is completely ignoring the context of the meta, acting like I'd play exactly the same in a 13p as a 20p(Protip: I don't.) She's completely ignoring the fact that I'm playing to my town meta, instead opting to say "Oh yeah he's totally faking his town meta." Herp. My read on her is unfortunately going to be affected by my frustration in her terrible cases against me. I'll put her as misguided town for now, but I may change my mind at a later point in time.

What the hell are these.

If BBmolla flips scum, Poro is town. BBscum knows exactly what he is doing here with that read on Poro, which is to get me to call SCUMBUDDY READ:

In post 628 in Newbie #1185, BBmolla wrote:

In post 616, Tierce wrote:BB, why Post 415? That one has been gnawing at me.


Read the Vijay read. Scum always have a hard time placing their partner somewhere, and the "I donno, he's kinda scummy, but he makes sense, I donno" read kind of read as a gut partner read to me.

"Vjay: Sampson's lurkiness didn't help you at all. Made a few cases, but those made senses... Not too much content at the moment, I think... Unsure."



REMEMBER THIS >>> Poro = unlynchable if BBmolla flips scum (or if multiball, Poro is not in BB's team, etc). <<< REMEMBER THIS


The stuff about "I may change my mind at a later point in time" and all those reads "for now" are very bad. Reads are always about the present, why does he need to remark on that they may change in the future? I've never seen him do this.

Not only is your "case" on porotown not at all convincing, I think it's down right silly. It could just as easily apply to you, since his read on you was JUST as "I dunno null" as it was on Poro. That sort of subtle manipulation rubs me the wrong way.

That comment makes Porochaz MORE LIKELY to be a bluebuddy, not less likely.

I also don't like how you start the day saying that Poro is town. How do you KNOW Poro isn't redscum, Tierce? Is it because you are redscum?


And as for your theory, it's wrong, as Yosarian pointed out. This isn't LyLo and we shouldn't be chasing our tails with bluescum. It's wonderful and great if we have a good case on bluescum and lynch it, but we should be lynching whomever we think is most likely to be scum, regardless of color. All factors equal, I would go for blue scum, but all factors are never equal.

[Amrun]

As per what I said yesterday,

Poro is confirmed not-Scumbag.

I'll get the votevounts from the files in a bit.

Actually I retract that one bit because I read "scumbag" as generic, but looking over the flips, I see what you're saying.

[Tierce]

Because reading BB is, as I said elsewhere, an 'evolutionary arms race'. He knows I read him well when I'm town, and so will adapt his meta to me when he's scum. That read was crafted in purpose for me.

I can patch cached games together to show you why BB was faking BBtown specifically for me; however, I do not have cached BBtown-games I wasn't part of to show the counterpoint (which means, he was copying his townmeta from his games

with me

and not from his towngames

without me

). The truth of the matter is, I really believe that was a read crafted to

deliberately

make me think Poro was bluescum, which means he is not.

And yes, I was calling Poro not-

Scumbag

, not calling him town. I called him town on D1, before BB's flip and before it was clear it was multiball.

[Amrun]

You can believe that BB went that far to convince YOU and you alone, but I simply do not.

[Thestatusquo]

Kuribo.... is exactly right.

I don't think I've ever heard this said before...

On a serious note, does anyone have a good handle on fate this game? I find him consistently hard to read and this OMG PUSH PUSH PUSH thing seems consistent with him both town and scum. Anyone have any insight?

By the way, the promises that you'll catch up are getting a little stale. This is akin to a prod dodge.


My top three are

kuribo

,

Porochaz

, and

TSQ

.

The prod dodges are getting really old from TSQ and I've seen him posting about how he "usually" focuses in too much detail when he plays... Is that because he's "usually" town?

He was also too sure on D1 that it was multiscum.

He is very unlikely to be bluescum, though.

Um, I worked a 10 hour shift today AND had 2 interviews. My life is like this. But, here are the problems with what you just said:

1) I am not prod dodging. I have absolutely not reread the thread yet, you are correct in that claim, but I think I am pretty clearly posting content and contributing DESPITE that fact. My posts are not prod dodges. My posts are opinions on cases in the thread, votes, and calling for discussion on a player I am having difficult time reading. It is a humungous stretch to attempt to boil my posting down to "stale prod dodging."

2) Your second point is just bad. Like, I AM focusing on detail in this game. You make no argument whatsoever that says I am not. (maybe because its simply not true, considering the fact that I was one of the most active posters in this game before crash...Unless you are claiming that somehow magically the crash switched my alignment? Yeah, you're dumb,) then you follow up this bold faced incorrect assertion by making a completely unmasked, unsubstantiated, and idiotic claim about my meta which you do not know. If you're going to make a meta argument about me, feel free to do so, but to say "lol, I mean...He totally COULD do this as scum...idk YOU BE THE JUDGE!" is just completely bizarre.

3) I was not sure at all that it was multi scum. You are blatantly misrepresenting my posts and taking them out of context. My argument was two fold. First of all, I was concerned that players were assuming that we had one scum group, and posted to remind them not to make decisions and votes based off of reck interaction because multiball was not something that can be ruled out. Second, I argued that several factors, Recks role and the "organic" which we now know to not be indicative of alignment, pointed to the probability of multiball. Sure, you can twist this to say I was "sure" but really its just simply not true.

4) I find it HILARIOUS that you all of a sudden, without mentioning me like...I think ever previous as a suspect, include me in your list of top three lynch targets RIGHT after I voted you. If I was so suspicious to you previously then why did you wait to voice these suspicions until right now. Seriously, have you said my name more than like 4 times total this whole game before this post? It fits though, the only reason you think fate might be scum is because he is suspicious of you? You RIGHT OUT admit that you are full of OMGUS right after you blatantly defend wifom reasoning as "it's just the way I feel." Yeah, just the way to get an easy lynch most likely.

You are such fucking scum. Please die already.

Confirm vote: Amrun

[Thestatusquo]

Hey guys, lets lynch unhelpful manipulative amrun scum instead of unhelpful clueless staeg town.

[Amrun]

Wait ... are you saying I'm using wifom to get an easy lynch when I'm using what you call wifom as a DEFENSE of the obviously easy lynch? Tell me how that makes sense.

Yeah, kuribo and YOU are totally the easy lynches here... Yeah right. *snerk*

[Amrun]

It's actually funny though because I totally forgot you were voting me.

That's one of the major reasons when I sat down to think about my top 3, I couldn't remember ANY current stance you had made - not one. I remember you being against BBmolla, but you've been a complete LACK OF PRESENCE for a long, long, long time... since before the crash. You're skating.

You're pretty flaky, so maybe it's just you, but I've never played with you before.

Why are you skating? Do you think you can get away with it?

I saw you posting in MD about how you usually play and it was NOTHING like you've been playing here, and THAT'S what made me wonder - not really anything you did in thread. That's probably a first for me, actually. I kind of dismissed it at the time, but then I was thinking about my top 3, you kept floating to the top of my consciousness. You have no current stances. You are not playing to your own self professed meta. I believe the most likely reason is because you're scum.