New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Magua]

@Mod:

Kindly fix my broken quote tag in the above post, kthxbai.

[Tammy]

Magua by way of Ghostlin, and because he's rude - which I tend to associate with town. Yes, Magua I finished reading the thread. Are you rude because you think I'm scum, or is this just your natural play?

That's not rudeness. That's condescension. I'm condescending towards bad play (<--- ok,

that

might be rude). Replacing in and saying, "Guys, don't vote me, I'm not scum" repeatedly is bad play.

Fair enough. It was bad play; I admit. I occasionally have bad mafia days where my play is suboptimal...that was one of them.

Vote: Nobody Special

NS is my best candidate for scum though. Other suspicions about him have already been talked about namely his testing the waters to see if anyone would buy the Alice was bussing Jason thing. Two other things stuck out to me though, and that was his overexplanation in 155 for why he was suddenly being helpful in the game and lack of pretty much anything else. One of the last things NS says is that there's no way he and DV can be scum together in post 333, which is just an odd post altogether.

Why do you say DV is town for saying he was thinking about fakeclaiming, but NS is scum for testing the waters on an Alice lynch? In both cases it's someone openly doing a scummy action.

More specifically, why do you have a townread on Jon_h61 and a scumread on NS when they seem roughly comparable in terms of contribution to the thread?

Second, do you think NS is mafia or the SK? If you think he's mafia, who do you think is the SK?[/quote]

DV admitting that he was thinking about fakeclaiming is a town reaction. Yes, it's a scummy action, but admitting it tends to come from town. I've seen town fakeclaim to save themselves from a lynch and then fess up within hours that they didn't have the role they claimed they had. Scum don't tend to admit these types of things. And I said I have a weak town read on him.

NS isn't only scum for testing the waters on Alice bussing Jason. One, his first post in the thread looks like distancing from Jason where he's suggesting that he'd be willing to vote him. Besides it's not necessarily the testing of the waters that looks scummy it's the language used. Saying "Guys, if I were to say Alice isn't town, how would that be received?" isn't a town type of question. Town tend to test waters in a different way, ask questions a bit differently, and they aren't too concerned with how they're going to be received. Asking "how would that be received" suggests too much concern for what might be an unpopular opinion and not wanting to stand out for it or get too much flack for it, which tend to come from scum. Also, he just doesn't look like he actually believes it.

I'm leaning town on jon but not sure exactly what to do with him. There's a lack of participation that would make him fit the profile of a killer and it's weird that most of his posts are talking about making more contribution. Actually now that I've read him in ISO, I'm trying to figure why I was leaning town. He talks about posts that he makes but never posts. Wasn't he confirmed vanilla through his predecessor? He seems a bit more engaged than NS, which is why I was leaning town for him. Leaning town is a far cry from saying I have a town read though.

I think it's most likely that NS is mafia. Post 97 makes sense for this. Saying that he remembered Jason being scummy and would be willing to vote him but doesn't want to put him at L-1 yet while also floating a possible DV lynch suggests distancing.

As far as who the SK is, I don't know. I'd need to think about it. I'd suppose it was somebody who wasn't necessarily attempting to get the mafia team killed too soon as the SK would need them alive if he had any hopes of surviving to endgame himself. Without having the first three days of the game to look at behavior and wagons, I don't know who would typically fit the profile. So, it's assumed that the SK killed the first night correct? But not the other nights? Why would they be withholding their kills when the longer they drag it out the lesser chance they have to win. The lack of multiple kills is one reason I'm not completely convinced there is a SK. Yes, I know the theory and objectively it does make sense for Snake (me) to be the SK due to a lack of attention to the thread. It's a good theory, but it's incorrect. What player wouldn't make a kill though? It doesn't make sense to me. The only option I can think of is redff. He was jailed night 3 and potentially was night 4, which would make sense for there not being two kills that night. Is there any accounting for his night 2 actions?

I don't know if I buy your potential theory that MoI is the SK. He seems like the type of player that wouldn't hold the kills. The only way I'd see this is if he wasn't actually looking for the killers in earnest. Hmmm...something hasn't felt quite right in his scumhunting so I suppose this could be a possibility, still he seems like the type of player that would submit kills. Need to think this over.

[Tammy]

Oh wait so question about Serial Killers here. Are they typically bulletproof? Where I play they are bulletproof and sometimes have other roles as well - the one I played in had a bulletproof, 2 shot finder, serial killer. If the serial killer is bulletproof here perhaps that's why there is different flavor. If there is a serial killer, how likely is it that the serial killer murdered someone night one, but the mafia team attacked the serial killer who was bulletproof?

[Magua]

Oh wait so question about Serial Killers here. Are they typically bulletproof? Where I play they are bulletproof and sometimes have other roles as well - the one I played in had a bulletproof, 2 shot finder, serial killer. If the serial killer is bulletproof here perhaps that's why there is different flavor. If there is a serial killer, how likely is it that the serial killer murdered someone night one, but the mafia team attacked the serial killer who was bulletproof?

Mechanics question first.

Serial killers tend to be either investigation immune or bulletproof. Given the existence of the FBI Agent, going to guess not investigation immune, so the SK is actually probably bulletproof.

You have to recall that a member of the mafia was jailkept (which means their action failed) N1. I do not believe that the Mafia have shot the SK, because if you have the Mafia up against a bulletproof SK, they know the only way to win is to get that person lynched. At the very least I Am Innocent or Jason would've outted that information as they were being lynched.

And the Mafia have only missed one kill. It's the SK who's missed three.

Will post more in a bit.

[Nobody Special]

Tammy is our Serial Killer. Anyone who doesn't see that, please, do try to convince me otherwise.

unvote

Vote: Tammy

DY is still scum, though.

And that's L-2, for those playing at home.

[Tammy]

Mechanics question first.

Serial killers tend to be either investigation immune or bulletproof. Given the existence of the FBI Agent, going to guess not investigation immune, so the SK is actually probably bulletproof.

You have to recall that a member of the mafia was jailkept (which means their action failed) N1. I do not believe that the Mafia have shot the SK, because if you have the Mafia up against a bulletproof SK, they know the only way to win is to get that person lynched. At the very least I Am Innocent or Jason would've outted that information as they were being lynched.

And the Mafia have only missed one kill. It's the SK who's missed three.

Will post more in a bit.

All right, still trying to adjust my assumptions for site differences. I didn't even consider one member of the team being blocked stopping the kill. At my site, if there's a three person team, even if two members are blocked the kill still goes through because it's a team action rather than an individual.

When did the SK theory become serious? If they thought the person they hit was healed, that could account for them not thinking that it was a SK. But, it's probably a stupid idea anyway, so never mind.

Actually I've been thinking, and you were right in your earlier assessment, you have to lynch me. I've been able to argue my way out of tough mafia spots and prove my innocence before when it didn't look good, and as fun as that is, I don't think it's possible here. Nor do I think it would be good for town anyway because even if you all listen to me for now I would be too much of a problem later on because of the blank spot. (Now make this twice in just a couple weeks here that I feel like a hypocrite for arguing for something I've previously said shouldn't happen; although I had to strategically mislynch someone last week so I guess in certain instances it's best for town.)

I don't know this site well enough to be able to make sense of what is likely for the set up and balance, nor is math my strong suit, so I don't know how many mislynches you have left before town really starts to be in danger. My guess is that you have at least three, and I have to be one of those three. Sure, I'd love it if I wasn't this one, so I could at least try to help town, but I can see the writing on the wall pretty well and in all likelihood it will be this one.

I'm at L-2 right now, and I don't know if you guys tend to lynch before or wait until deadline, but I'd like for you guys to at least give me a couple of days so that I can go through the thread again and see if I can help before you lynch me. I know you'll still be suspicious of me while I'm here, but at least I can possibly try provide some interaction and information over the next few days that will help you in the next coming days.

This is actually kind of interesting, I've never had more than three votes on me before as an innocent, let alone be lynched as an innocent. I can't imagine any better circumstances for the first time of that happening.

[DeasVail]

Will get to this a bit later.

[Alicewondering]

Magua, Jon is not confirmed Vanilla, but I tracked him at the start of this game, and he didn't visit anyone, which makes me think his predecessor was probably telling the truth about his VT claim.

I'm making my way through the thread right now, but seeing as how you have an FBI Agent, why don't you just have him investigate me tonight? The results will come back not a serial killer.

I thought about that, but it gives you opportunity to make an extra kill, and I'd rather not have that happen with the game winding down.

[Tammy]

Magua, Jon is not confirmed Vanilla, but I tracked him at the start of this game, and he didn't visit anyone, which makes me think his predecessor was probably telling the truth about his VT claim.

You tracked him at the start of the game? Day one or day two?

[DeasVail]

Er... Tammy seems like town to me.

Except I'm not sure at all.

[DeasVail]

Actually I do think she is because of the whole "you should lynch me" thing. I'd imagine scum to be much more unlikely to give up.

[Tammy]

Trying to figure out how many mislynches are left. The balance I'm used to you have possibly two left. Either 2 mafia or 2 with one mafia and one SK.

So assuming two left, it would look something like this:

10 people:
1. Lynch Tammy (mislynch), hopefully only one night kill

8 people:
2. Lynch ??? (possible mislynch), hopefully only one night kill

6 people:
3. If you mislynch day two after mislynching me, night might be your best option here to get you to odds and lessen the pool. Hopefully there will just be one more night kill.

The next two days you have to get it right.

So, I think I was wrong in my earlier assumption that you had three mislynches left. Unless I'm all kinds of wrong on my math, which is very possible, you have two.

[Alicewondering]

You tracked him at the start of the game? Day one or day two?

To clarify, I meant the start of this thread. So that would have been N4.

[Tammy]

You tracked him at the start of the game? Day one or day two?

To clarify, I meant the start of this thread. So that would have been N4.

Was he investigated by DY?

[Tammy]

Tammy is our Serial Killer. Anyone who doesn't see that, please, do try to convince me otherwise.

unvote

Vote: Tammy

DY is still scum, though.

And that's L-2, for those playing at home.

Why don't you explain why I am?

[Nobody Special]

As explained to death prior to this, Snake was away for, like,

ever,

and there's never been more than one kill per night.

Ipso facto, you're it.

[Tammy]

As explained to death prior to this, Snake was away for, like,

ever,

and there's never been more than one kill per night.

Ipso facto, you're it.

Ok, so no real reason except for parroting another person's theory. Good, feel like putting some actual work into the game?

[Zachrulez]

9th vote count of day 5:

Tammy - 4 (Magua, Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion, Nobody Special)
Nobody Special - 3 (redFF, Jon_h61, Tammy)
DarthYoshi - 1 (DeasVail)
redff - 1 (havingfitz)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (DarthYoshi)

Not Voting: ()

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Day 5 will end no later than Friday, April 13th at 6pm CST

[havingfitz]

OK...little bit of a catch up from Friday:

@MOI... post 335...you say odds DV is scum with Jason are slim...but wouldn't that be the objective of their play towards each other? Both have received a large amount of suspicion over the course of this game and anything to provide some clearance...to either of them...would be worth the bus. And why are you asking me if DV is a SK when you and I both know DY got a negative return on him? Useless questions are useless. And I do not have DV "tucked" anywhere. He has been a suspect of mine this entire game. Here's a hypothetical for you.....if you found yourself in a 3 person LYLO with Magua and DV, who would you vote and why?

Glossing over the muffin VT stuff....if it's still an issue my recollection is that muffin's ability told him whether a player's role PM contained the word Vanilla.

I'm not sure how Snake/Tammy suddenly became the frontrunner to be an SK. If it's based simply on Snake's flakiness that seems like a poor reason. As mentioned earlier iirc, if there is an SK in this game my frontrunner would be redFF. On that note...

redFF

...could you proved who you "protected" the first 2 nights?

@Tammy...post 350...regarding my opinion that Ghost/Magua is town because they are a neighborizer. Uh...yeah. Based on my personal experience, which is what I base all my scumhunting on, I lean towards a confirmed neighbor being town vice scum. I'm sure there are examples where this hasn't been the case, as pointed out by MOI (and only MOI), but that's my opinion. He's is so low on my suspect list he might as well be confirmed. I am not making my assumption in a vacuum btw. Similar to my view of DY and his claim...I did have a town feel towards Ghostlin and his confirmed claim only supports my town opinion towards him. And Magua's play so far hasn't changed my opinion.

@Tammy...post 360...you would not be my first choice as a SK. You could be but I think Snake's attendance record is a weak reason. And I already answered you post 361 question from your post 350 @Tammy...post 363...it doesn't. I was just pointing out that Kamrun being neighbored had no bearing on his alignment.

@Magua...post 370...the points you bring about Snake possibly being an SK could similarly be applied to redFF. We know he was jk'ed the night muffin died and there is a possibility he could have been jk'ed the night Kamrun died. This could explain the lack of 2 NKs for those nights and point to him being an SK that was jk'd. I do not remember his actions the first 2 nights but N1 was obviously a mafia block (via the jk) and N2...who knows? The SK could have targeted the same victim as mafia...could he have been jk'd? Could he have targeted someone the Doc protected? There are equally valid possibilities to a red SK as anyone else still being considered.

@Tammy...post 375...I'm providing my recollection in the post you ask for my recollection. Do you still have a question on my comments? I seem to recall someone else (Alice?) elaborating a bit on the event as well. Lemme know.

@NS...post 404...prior to today you never place a vote on Snake/Tammy's slot. Now you are voting and accusing her of being the SK in the same post you say DY is scum. WTF? If you honestly thought Tammy was the SK wouldn't that clear DY? I do not like this post/vote rationale at all. You are solidly entrenched in my top three with red and DV. On the subject of you and DV being among my top three targets...I find it interesting that neither of you has ever voted the other....throughout the entire game. This despite DV being a lynch front runner D1 and D3 and you being a frontrunner today.

Still prefer red or DV lynches but would move to NS if deadline was near and options 1 & 2 weren't getting any support.

[MagnaofIllusion]

What I find odd is MoI's reaction to his suspicion. When MoI replaced into the Kirby game, and he said who would probably be scum if they remained alive for too many more days with the player list, he said that he would say the same thing about himself. So if he knows he's going to get suspicion when he remains alive for a little while, why does he seem surprised or frustrated by it? (Although he handles it a lot better than I do when it happens to me.)

First I’m going to share some history with you.

I played for over 2 years on another site before coming to MS. There I developed a strong reputation similar to here – I was almost uniformally killed N1 as Town in every game regardless of play / role / whatever simply due to rep. It, as expected, got to the point that any game I survived N1 the calls of “MoI is scum, he’s alive” came raining on Day 2, often from scum. It actually became a viable discussed strategy for scum to avoid killing me just to make that argument to push for my claim.

Suffice it to say that I stopped playing games there shortly afterwards because the investment of my time wasn’t worth it. I wasn’t going to live more than two Days regardless of alignment or play.

I understand your point regarding Kirby Mafia – I specifically made that point regarding Spyrex and PranaDevil because it was true … the playerlist in that game was significantly weaker overall and them living any amount of time was something I didn’t want escaping those who were not experienced.

I’m used to dealing with “MoI is Alive” arguments and “Burden of Proficiency” arguments here. It’s pretty common. What makes me rather peeved is when they are made completely in absence of context and facts of the game. Simply put – I find attacks based simply on the “He’s alive right now” with the playerlist as it stands (and I challenge Darth to explicitly say directly he feels I’m a better player than he is and thus it is reasonable he hasn’t been killed) and the claims that have been made.

Post 411 makes my brain hurt.

--

@MOI... post 335...you say odds DV is scum with Jason are slim...but wouldn't that be the objective of their play towards each other? Both have received a large amount of suspicion over the course of this game and anything to provide some clearance...to either of them...would be worth the bus.

This is the kind of surface thinking that doesn’t match up to actual play. Of course bussing has been a historically successful tactic. But in this game’s context bussing doesn’t make sense for scum.

By the end of Day 3 scum had already lost IAI and Jason was already outed scum. I don’t see scum gambling and offering up a partner as sacrifice in place of Jason. You can see from the reaction to Jason’s claim that even if Deas had flipped scum Jason was going down. A last ditch effort to get rid of Town / Serial Killer is overwhelmingly more likely what occurred if scum are playing to their wincon.

And I do not have DV "tucked" anywhere. He has been a suspect of mine this entire game. Here's a hypothetical for you.....if you found yourself in a 3 person LYLO with Magua and DV, who would you vote and why?

Yes, he’s been your ‘suspect’ for much of the game. That doesn’t mean that your continued efforts to keep calling him scum aren’t suspect or an effort to keep him as possible mislynch.

If we are talking hypothetical land where only Mafia is expected to exist I would have to have good reason not to look long and hard at Magua’s slot as possible Mafia.

Who would you suspect in said hypothetical circumstance?

[DarthYoshi]

I'm back from V/LA and am beginning to catch up. Content to come tonight or tomorrow morning.

[DeasVail]

Unvote: DY

Vote: NS

Unvote: NS

Vote: DY

Happy now Fitz?

[Tammy]

You tracked him at the start of the game? Day one or day two?

To clarify, I meant the start of this thread. So that would have been N4.

Was he investigated by DY?

Never mind this question. I had a chance to reread the first half of the thread and found where he did investigate. You tracked him N4 and he didn't go anywhere, and there was a kill. So, the only way he's a killer is if there's two left of mafia, and he didn't perform the kill. That would be a hell of a coincidence and if there is a serial killer, I think it's unlikely, so Jon is not very likely to be a killer.

Of the people alive who have been investigated:

NS is not a serial killer
DV is not a serial killer
Jon is not a serial killer

Don't know if I'm missing anything.

[Nobody Special]

Of the people alive who have been investigated:

NS is not a serial killer
DV is not a serial killer
Jon is not a serial killer

Don't know if I'm missing anything.

That's IF you believe DY's claim, which I don't.

[Tammy]

Of the people alive who have been investigated:

NS is not a serial killer
DV is not a serial killer
Jon is not a serial killer

Don't know if I'm missing anything.

That's IF you believe DY's claim, which I don't.

If you don't believe DY's claim, then do you believe there's a serial killer? How do you account for Alice tracking DY when he visited DV and DV not being killed DY is not an FBI agent?