New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Tammy]

See it's posts like this that have me doubting my earlier scum read of NS.

Please elaborate on your reasons here (regarding Post 662 originally, BTW).

Don't think it needs much elaboration. It felt like a town post; doesn't get rid of my suspicions - it just didn't feel like a scum post.

[Tammy]

What was IaI's original claim? On page 68 of pre-crash, I'm seeing MoI respond to IaI in which he states "I thought my protection on Thor was the reason for only 1 NK, and did not want to leave a trail that I was the one protecting him."

I wouldn't normally expect scum to claim to have protected their partner, especially when fake claiming.

[Tammy]

Oh OK and I'm also seeing on page 68, MoI bringing up the ninja thing with regards to Snake (me). I was beginning to think he was bringing it up right now for confusion purposes.

[Tammy]

Question for you people who understand setup and balance better than I do, would the presence of an SK suggest that the mafia would receive a healing role?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Not really. Not out of the question, but also not sufficiently plausible for me to think the fact that MoI claimed particularly notable in that regard.

What was IaI's original claim?

He claimed VT, then got busted and claimed weak doc, iirc.

[havingfitz]

Back from v/LA. Surprised to see CES coming at me strong ("we're lynching fitzscum?" WTF?). Considering he voted Tammy yesterday and kept his vote there all day despite redFF being an overwhelming choice for the lynch I would suggest you are in no position to be deciding anything. Your slot has been a non-entity this entire game and to replace in for someone bailing when his ship was sinking does not give you any weight other than that of your own vote. And how is a track on you an indication of you being town again? How many scum are you ~assuming were present when your track occurred?

With Magua gone now I would say no one has the bona fides to pronounce themselves confirmed town.

I'm on my phone all afternoon and will catch up throughout the day as I'm able to. My main suspect today is NS. I do not have a clear frontrunner for my #2 but the forcefulness of CES' push on me today is disconcerting. I don't think we can safely assume anything other than LYLO so it's in our best interest to take our time.

While I continue catching up...could you [CES] elaborate on the pattern of me appearing more clued in on things?

[Tammy]

Not really. Not out of the question, but also not sufficiently plausible for me to think the fact that MoI claimed particularly notable in that regard.

OK so not particularly likely that mafia would have a healing role to balance for the SK. Then do you believe MoI's claim? If you do, why bother questioning him over his night one heal choice, if you think it's unlikely that mafia would have a healer? Because if he's a healer and more likely innocent, what does it matter who he healed?

What was IaI's original claim?

He claimed VT, then got busted and claimed weak doc, iirc.

So, he basically claimed the same thing that MoI claimed, though I don't know the particulars of the claim. Seems rather uninspired and silly to fake claim weak doc if he and MoI were partners and that was MoI's role, making them less likely to be partnered.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fitz' post is boring.

OK so not particularly likely that mafia would have a healing role to balance for the SK. Then do you believe MoI's claim? If you do, why bother questioning him over his night one heal choice, if you think it's unlikely that mafia would have a healer? Because if he's a healer and more likely innocent, what does it matter who he healed?

I see no particular reason to believe his claim. I'm pretty sure he's not the type of scum that would claim VT whenever possible, so why would the doc claim be meaningful alignmentwise unless it's because his claim doesn't stand up to scrutiny?

So, he basically claimed the same thing that MoI claimed, though I don't know the particulars of the claim. Seems rather uninspired and silly to fake claim weak doc if he and MoI were partners and that was MoI's role, making them less likely to be partnered.

That would be a relevant point if he hadn't already been busted when he made that claim.

[Tammy]

CES - What would you make of the lack of the SK kill on night two then? It's been largely assumed that he tried to kill Alice, but it failed due to MoI's heal on her night two.

I just searched through the neighborhood and found that Kamrun jailkept IaI both night one and night two. We know he jailkept redFF on night three, and most likely did on night four too. The thing that throws me off is that for three nights in a row, mafia took a chance to kill the person redFF was supposed to be protecting. I suppose they could just figure it didn't matter and they'd take out either the first time.

The lack of night two SK kill makes MoI's claim of healing Alice pretty likely.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

How did that one slip by me?

Um, it could be explained by the SK failing to send in a kill (iirc that slot used to be Lowell; he's pretty lurky) or attempting to kill IAI or Baseline (although I believe he had Lowell down as townish). It's a shame I can't check whether Lowell posted on site that Night because of the crash and whatnot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Having’s Post 705 strikes me as “Ooops, did I kill the wrong person at Night” given the ‘Why is CES coming after me’ stance.

Nobody Special needs prodded ….

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Don't think it needs much elaboration. It felt like a town post; doesn't get rid of my suspicions - it just didn't feel like a scum post.

Well if it’s just a matter of gut that’s fine. I thought there might be an explainable reason behind your conclusion.

What was IaI's original claim? On page 68 of pre-crash, I'm seeing MoI respond to IaI in which he states "I thought my protection on Thor was the reason for only 1 NK, and did not want to leave a trail that I was the one protecting him."

I wouldn't normally expect scum to claim to have protected their partner, especially when fake claiming.

IAI originally claimed VT in the mass-claim process Day 3. When muffin busted him on that he then tried to claim Weak Doc who protected Thor (thus confirming him as Town).

--

Why are you bringing my "slot" into this?

Why would I not? Your slot is the sum of the play of all the players who occupied it. No reason to just ignore what happened before you replaced in.

I know what question I'm asking and I assure you that it hasn't been answered.

No, again the question has been answered. You want to ask why I decided to use my limited shots Day 1 and Day 2?

Nope. That still gives the Cop plenty of viable targets and is just generally powerful enough that a GF is not that big a deal. But I would think most trackers try to catch the scum nightkill in progress and a ninja throws that straight out of the window.

Well this is pretty absurd given the presence of a Ninja simply means the Tracker can catch the 3 of the 4 expected scum making Nightkills and at least one taking other actions (which he did).

Yup. Town needs power to offset scum's inherent advantages. I see decent investigative power, some protective power (depends in part of your alignment) and some scum role-coppish power to compensate. Looks balanced to me with 2 Goons.

Yeah, that’s a pretty bad conclusion IMO. Not sure if it comes from a scum perspective or not. If I can get motivated I’ll review other completed Large Normals for comparision.

Whatever approach they took, scum wouldn't've been able to avoid shooting redFF if he had been a real bodyguard, so long term killing redFF is not at all problematic. Leaving the Tracker of Jailkeeper for one extra Night doesn't strike me as that big a deal in what was still a decently sized game, certainly not compared to the Vanilla Cop getting more innocent result on VTs.

Gut says this ‘conclusion’ you are making is more driven by avoiding suspicion of your slot (via disputing the obvious logical conclusion that both expected scum are in the VT slots) than actual logic reasoning.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why would I not? Your slot is the sum of the play of all the players who occupied it. No reason to just ignore what happened before you replaced in.

And that relates to my Fitzread how? It doesn't.

No, again the question has been answered. You want to ask why I decided to use my limited shots Day 1 and Day 2?

That's what I've been asking. (Well just N1, the N2 protection seems plenty plausible in the grand scheme of things.)

Well this is pretty absurd given the presence of a Ninja simply means the Tracker can catch the 3 of the 4 expected scum making Nightkills and at least one taking other actions (which he did).

If you have a Ninja, you use the Ninja to make the kill, obviously. And I don't see how the Tracker result contributed to Jason getting lynched (although I admit it definitely could have in other circumstances).

Gut says this ‘conclusion’ you are making is more driven by avoiding suspicion of your slot (via disputing the obvious logical conclusion that both expected scum are in the VT slots) than actual logic reasoning.

Nope. There's nothing weird about the scum going after the strongest PR there.

[Zachrulez]

Nobody Special has been prodded.

No vote count yet, as one isn't needed thus far.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And that relates to my Fitzread how? It doesn't.

Actually it does. Your slot saw fit to basically ignore fitz and his scumminess right up until today. In fact Thor laid down the classic “I’ll always vote fitz because he’s always scummy to me” line distancing line as he was busy pushing horrible mislynches. That is incredibly relevant to my assessment of you and the quality of your read on fitz.

If you have a Ninja, you use the Ninja to make the kill, obviously. And I don't see how the Tracker result contributed to Jason getting lynched (although I admit it definitely could have in other circumstances).

Yes, but your argument pre-supposes that a Town Tracker is ‘always’ useless. The Ninja gets caught by the Vanilla Town Cop and lynched and suddenly he’s not able to make that kill.

Nope. There's nothing weird about the scum going after the strongest PR there.

Yes, but the Vanilla Cop is only the strongest role there if he’s capable of catching the scum. The Tracker would be a much more dangerous role if one of the remaining scum was Investigation Immune as a Godfather can still be tracked.

So once again … you arguments seem quite crafted to fit to your stance as opposed to finding your stance based on the logical course of events.

[havingfitz]

Fitz' post is boring.

Please answer my questions directed at you.

Having’s Post 705 strikes me as “Ooops, did I kill the wrong person at Night” given the ‘Why is CES coming after me’ stance.

Seriously? This is a weak reach to push suspicions onto me. If you think I am scum tell me why. And did CES' stellar play yesterday convince you the jon wagon you were pushing so hard for the day prior is no longer of value? In fact...not to leave out NS and Tammy, how would you rank your four fellow players remaining in the game?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fitz' post is boring.

Please answer my questions directed at you.

Already explained; 3, one of whom was almost certainly engaged elsewhere; see #698.

Yes, but the Vanilla Cop is only the strongest role there if he’s capable of catching the scum. The Tracker would be a much more dangerous role if one of the remaining scum was Investigation Immune as a Godfather can still be tracked.

No. The Vanilla Cop was the strongest role there because it could confirm people as town.

MoI is still dodging the DV N1 protect question.

[havingfitz]

Fitz' post is boring.

Please answer my questions directed at you.

Already explained; 3, one of whom was almost certainly engaged elsewhere; see #698.

Yes, but the Vanilla Cop is only the strongest role there if he’s capable of catching the scum. The Tracker would be a much more dangerous role if one of the remaining scum was Investigation Immune as a Godfather can still be tracked.

No. The Vanilla Cop was the strongest role there because it could confirm people as town.

MoI is still dodging the DV N1 protect question.

Funny you getting mad at MOI for dodging questions. How about this?

...could you [CES] elaborate on the pattern of me appearing more clued in on things?

Also...your post 698 doesn't really explain why you should be considered town. Your Post 692 tries to point to odds based on you being 1 or 2 remaining scum when in fact there were more than likely three based on your own assumptions of how many are left. So 1st) you throw out odds based on circumstances you don't agree with and 2nd) pushing out odds to defend or validate yourself is worthless unless they are 100%. So yeah...you are by no means confirmed anything.

[Tammy]

Ok so I just realized I might be confused about something. What is a ninja at this site? I'm guessing by Magna's discussions that a ninja is something totally different here than at my site.

[Nobody Special]

Prod received. I saw daybreak, and the weekend got real crazy.

Tammy's right, I haven't mentioned fitz. Need to re-read him.

Will have some actual input sometime tomorrow night.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Funny you getting mad at MOI for dodging questions. How about this?

3 questions, 3 answers.

You're boring.

Tammy, a mafiascum Ninja doesn't show up on Tracker or Watcher results.

[havingfitz]

CES...stop avoiding my question. Please back up your accusation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What do you think "3 questions, 3 answers." means? I'm not just throwing random phrases out there for the fun of it.

NS, talk to us.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI is still dodging the DV N1 protect question.

Well at this stage the proper response is –

3 questions

1 question asked 3 times, 3 answers.

You're boring.

I’m pretty much objective Town beyond any attempt to say otherwise at this juncture.

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Prod received. I saw daybreak, and the weekend got real crazy.

So Day broke on Friday the 20th at 11:50pm. Between that time and this post you had time to make over 30 posts on site. So why exactly was the weekend so busy that you didn’t have time to pop in here and say “Yeah, I saw the flips, have a busy weekend”?

Not really buying this excuse.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No, again the question has been answered. You want to ask why I decided to use my limited shots Day 1 and Day 2?

You clearly acknowledged here that there is a question you haven't answered. I don't really care that you're pretending that it's not the same one that I've been asking. Answer it.

[Tammy]

Oh that's what he meant? I was trying to figure out how watching the movie Daybreak caused the weekend to go crazy. *idiot*

So, the ninja is a scum-aligned role that cannot be tracked or watched. Got it. That makes so much more sense and is definitely nothing like the ninja role I'm used to.