Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[Dazzy]

Catch a man a fish, and you can sell it to him. Teach a man to fish, and you ruin a wonderful business opportunity.

~Karl Marx

Vote count

(6 players alive = 4 to lynch)

()

Not voting(6/6)(havingfitz, Psyche, drmyshotgun, Trevor, BBMolla, Whiskers)

Deadline

: May 27, 2012

Other Notes:

• Whiskers is V/LA until Saturday, pending restored internet access.

[drmyshotgun]

@BB - My likely Town-mate is Fitz, but I'm uncomfortable with his Wolf thing.

@Whiskers: Am I saying you killed Kassadin because he bussed his partner? Why yes. You are a Mafia member eager to get rid of the wolves.
Yes fishing out for Werewolf team is useful but it certainly gives Mafia stronger advantage since they aren't threatened by NightKills if they get rid of the Wolf-Team.
Finding Wolf member is indeed useful.
Okay. Answer this: If you don't think Kassadin got Night Killed because someone (likely you) thought he was Wolf, then why oh why is he dead? Why is Kassadin dead? Why would Mafia get rid of Kassadin?

@Fitz: No I am not a Scum. Not werewolf, not mafia, no nothing. Just plain vanilla flavored townie.
Are you claiming wolf right now yourself, Fitz? Or do you just want life extension by throwing a suggestion to Town that you are the likely last standing wolf?

[Psyche]

Follow on from my post 289 thoughts.

Unless people think Kcda was throwing his partner under the bus with his pre-lynch comments I can not see Trevor or Whiskers being a wolf. Kcda also called out BBMolla and he appears to be a confirmed Mason.

So IMO Whiskers and Trevor are only candidates for Mafia. I do not think DK/Psyche is the remaining wolf because of their ~absence during last night's activities. So to recap...(and once again I include myself for completeness)

Likely pool of mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, DK/Psyche, Shotgun, Me

Likely pool of wolves: Shotgun, Me.

Confirmed town: BBMolla. (BTW BB...wth with the lynch Fitz post? Where is that coming from?)

FMPOV that points to Shotgun as the last wolf. Shotgun...are you the last wolf?

As we should not be targetting the wolf today we should be avoiding Shotgun (and me...primarily because I am town but unbiasedly becuase I'm still a wolf option).

So IMO the only options for a lynch today are Trevor, Whiskers, and Psyche. I was leaning town on Trevor and Whiskers before the last three flips occurred so my preference today would be Psyche...but her posting is much better than DK's (aside from the fact her read on me is correct) so I need to look all three of them over again. I meant to have looked Trevor and Whisker's over again by now but RL and gameload has interrupted. I'll try to get the three of them sorted out in my mind in the next day or so.

tl:dr:

Shotgun is likely the wolf and we should be targetting one of these three players as mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, Psyche

Did you read my reasoning? I made the strong argument that Trevor is, in fact, the wolf and kcdaspot did not throw anyone under the bus but mined them with WIFOM just for this post. And it was a bit more detailed and corroborated that your ideas on who the wolf is. :/

[drmyshotgun]

I agree that Fitz didn't give much of an evidence for anything he said.
Just likely stuff for him.

[Psyche]

Fitz seeemed town by default — because everyone else was scummy. Let me read more critically.

[drmyshotgun]

@Whiskers:
I didn't pick you out Whiskers because Psyche paired us.
Well, Psyche did mention you and that was a start.

However I felt strong Town vibes from you on Day 1 and now am feeling that I took that Town read for granted. I should have taken more sceptical position upon you.
You survived two Nights. Why do you think that is?

Also your 1/3 calculation is wrong. There is four cases on the reason of your survival. Whatever side you are on didn't matter for you on Night 1.
Case 1 - Mafia says "Werewolf will get her" and you are werewolf.
Case 2 - Werewolf says "Mafia will get her" and you are Mafia.
Case 3 - Both Mafia and Werewolf says "Someone will get her." You are Town.

It is 2/3 chance for your survival, you see.
Also everyone wants dirty work to be done by someone else than themselves.

[Psyche]

I have some basic disagreements with shotgun's case, despite its conclusion, it seems.

I want to say that his attack clears him from having any relationship with whiskers, but it could be orchestrated, pre-emption of my attack for the sake of distancing.

[drmyshotgun]

Stop fiddling with WIFOM and bring out Occam's Razor.
Obvious facts are obvious. Who is the sole person who thought Kassadin was scummy? Whiskers.
We know that Mafia got him Night 2, so its obvious that Whiskers is working for Mafia team and tried he did to get rid of the Wolf.

Whiskers is Mafia.
Fitz agrees with this. Whiskers can't be Werewolf you say, why yes.
I don't know what he exactly sees in Trevor to not think him as Werewolf, but he is certainly not going to die today.
Whiskers is the choice.

[drmyshotgun]

I'd also point out the fact that none of the people answered BBMolla.
Who is their Town mate?

[Psyche]

:/

Or Whiskers was left alive just for this development.

Stop fiddling with WIFOM and bring out Occam's Razor.
Obvious facts are obvious. Who is the sole person who thought Kassadin was scummy? Whiskers.
We know that Mafia got him Night 2, so its obvious that Whiskers is working for Mafia team and tried he did to get rid of the Wolf.

Whiskers is Mafia.
Fitz agrees with this. Whiskers can't be Werewolf you say, why yes.
I don't know what he exactly sees in Trevor to not think him as Werewolf, but he is certainly not going to die today.
Whiskers is the choice.

That's too circumstantial to be useful. You thought Kassadin was a good kill, too, if you don't remember. And fitz thought kassadin was a viable scumtarget. Besides, the thread is public knowledge, and just like scum might use my trevor case in their NK considerations, they can use Whiskers'.

I think Whiskers is scum, but this is poor reasoning. And I think you are scum.

[Trevor]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

Here's what I read.

Part 1: Trevor is fluffing and his play reminds me of some other guy in some other game who was scum. He goes for raspberry instead of kdaspot even though raspberry claimed scum. He doesn't mention Kdaspot who happened to be scum.

Part 2: Trevor and Kdaspot were attacking eachother and kdaspot used some wifom. Kdaspot gets bussed and TELLS THE OTHER GROUP TO SHOOT HIS PARTNER OR BBMOLLA. Clearly, after heavily distancing d1, they decide to bus each other. Want to see Trevor's other content or reasoning on why no one else could possibly be a werewolf? Neither did I.

Psyche and Fitz are partners. Whiskers is the werewolf.

[drmyshotgun]

Kcdaspot's WIFOM speech is fucking our minds like dogs.
Yeah, he did say his team will go for Whiskers. Was this an attempt to get Mafia off her that night?

[drmyshotgun]

I suggest everyone to list the two people who are Mafia (Well, most of you already have)
And how about we go with the person whose name pops up the most?

[Trevor]

Kdaspot's wifom was obviously an attempt to distance from Trevor.

>wifom
>mfw it worked

[drmyshotgun]

And did he say Whiskers is ConfMason to get the Town behind him, and also get Mafia off him?

[Trevor]

Probably both, although that was just part of the wifom/ensuring that his partner wouldn't die.

[drmyshotgun]

So what Whiskers has done was to dig out someone who apparently looks like a Werewolf partner for Kcdaspot so that Mafia would go for him that night??

[Trevor]

What did he do?

[Trevor]

Didn't understand that last post at all.

[drmyshotgun]

In my case I presented a case on Whiskers hunting for another Werewolf in Kcdaspot's team.
He pointed out Kassadin.
Kassadin is found dead. Killed by Mafia.

So if Whiskers is Werewolf, she has hunted out Kassadin, someone apparently looking as if Werewolf partner to Kassadin for bussing, for Kassadin to get Dummy-Killed during the Night phase.

Providing better target than herself is best way to protect one's self during the Night.

[Trevor]

Never even noticed Whiskers' case on Kassadin. Good find.

[Psyche]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

Here's what I read.

Part 1: Trevor is fluffing and his play reminds me of some other guy in some other game who was scum. He goes for raspberry instead of kdaspot even though raspberry claimed scum. He doesn't mention Kdaspot who happened to be scum.

Part 2: Trevor and Kdaspot were attacking eachother and kdaspot used some wifom. Kdaspot gets bussed and TELLS THE OTHER GROUP TO SHOOT HIS PARTNER OR BBMOLLA. Clearly, after heavily distancing d1, they decide to bus each other. Want to see Trevor's other content or reasoning on why no one else could possibly be a werewolf? Neither did I.

Psyche and Fitz are partners. Whiskers is the werewolf.

This is a hilarious misrep of my posts where you deliberately ignore the most major and significant points the case. Thanks for confirming my read, scum.

Next time, consider directly confronting attacks against you — that might've had a better chance of fooling people.

[drmyshotgun]

So Psyche confirmed Trevor to be Werewolf??
What about Whiskers, Psyche?
Our new case looks solid.

[Psyche]

I really do need to get to that. Give me a about half an hour to finish up.

[drmyshotgun]

Sure.
But the thing I'm really really interested in is why Fitz is Town for you. Cause I can sort of see him as one too.