Open 402 -- Hard Boiled (Game Over!)

[LlamaFluff]

No.

We arent doing ANYTHING until BK tells us what he is doing, stop voting.

[TeChNoWC]

Im reading this on my phone

unvote

til BK confirms the plan, whether the initial idea or llamas or what

[Venmar]

This is stupid, why are we publicly announcing who BK will target? The mafia can just kill him and the town he is targeting.

[LlamaFluff]

This is stupid, why are we publicly announcing who BK will target? The mafia can just kill him and the town he is targeting.

Kinda the point to me.

I think Thomith is town, but I dont trust the rest of you not to lynch him either way by the time this is all over. If we make this move, it loses us BK but it forces scum to kill Thomith to bring down BK or BK just dies and Thomith-scum is caught.

Yes we are losing our hider if we do this, but I think the potential reward is worth it, and if you are VT we have three confirmed town tomorrow (but we arent talking about other PRs, im just making a point). I think its worth the risk because we either force the hand of scum in killing a potential mislynch or we catch scum, or a combination of the two.

[Venmar]

So the plan is to get BK killed? What is this?

Maybe i just do not personally understand this plan, but at a glance this plan is very sketchy, as making one of our PR's suicide is just weird.

[BK201]

The plan is unchanged. I'm going to hide behind someone, and I just hope the Tracker tracks me in case I hit scum.

[TeChNoWC]

@Llama: We won't have three confirmed town tommorrow, if mafia kill Thomith and BK. And if Thomith is scum, we will have still have two town dead (1 PR, 1 potential PR) + 1 maf.

In the instance Thomith is scum and BK targets him, and then mafia NK a PR, we lose two PR's for one maf, and we have Venmar and one PR left, or even WORSE, Venmar is a PR so we have only one conftown left who is the PR. That's two dead PR's and no more conftowns, and potentially no more leads on who is maf, all for one dead scum.

If Thomith is VT and maf NK him and kill BK, then we have two PR's left yes, but then the chance of CC, which means we have to lynch through the CC's before we even find the guilty tracked, and the guilty tracked COULD be the CC, meaning we just lost another PR for one scum (not too bad of a payoff). This could happen too with the above scenario, in which case what would be left is:

5 VT's and one maf. Giving us only one mislynch before we hit MYLO.

[TeChNoWC]

Ok, at this stage, before I vote again, there are three things that need to be done before we end the day.

1. Everyone needs to confirm they have seen BK's plan. Since Kass could be the tracker and is on VL/A, I want a confirm from him as well.

2. This hypo claim scenario. Sounds like a good idea. We lay out like this?

I am the Detective/Psych. I got a no guilty/guilty on ....
I am the Tracker (if anyone says vig at this point, go die in a hole). I tracked ...

Tell me if I am misunderstanding. Basically so if they get NKd, we have their reads still? Sounds good.

3. Someone else unvote please before two stupid people (and yes, could happen) come in and vote no lynch before ALL of this is done.

So for me:

CONFIRM: I SAW BK'S PLAN.

[DCLXVI]

I saw BK's plan
UNVOTE:

I only like the no-lynch if we are getting a directed hider target on someone like thomith. I don't see how BK's plan will be helpful, if he hits scum we will be losing two prs to out one scum. That is not a very fair ratio.

[LlamaFluff]

I saw BK's plan
UNVOTE:

I only like the no-lynch if we are getting a directed hider target on someone like thomith. I don't see how BK's plan will be helpful, if he hits scum we will be losing two prs to out one scum. That is not a very fair ratio.

There are the following outcomes

1) Very good - BK lives - Possible with Track on BK
2) Good - BK died behind Thomith-scum - Track does whatever
3) Acceptable - BK and Thomith die - Track does whatever
4) OK - BK dies behind ? - Track on BK - Tracker claims and then dies
5) Disasterous - BK and ? die - Track is ?

BK doing whatever opens up very good and disasterous options. I would prefer not to do that, but if BK insists will follow.

[TeChNoWC]

I saw BK's plan
UNVOTE:

I only like the no-lynch if we are getting a directed hider target on someone like thomith. I don't see how BK's plan will be helpful, if he hits scum we will be losing two prs to out one scum. That is not a very fair ratio.

And in the Thomith scenario we can lose two PRs and a VT and out NO scum.

Maybe we should do the Thomith scenario the next night, pending results. I still can't work out what is best so it's up to BK, and thus far BK has made his decision. We just need to acknowledge whether we support a no lynch given what BK plans to do.

Llama and BK, should we do hypoclaims then? They help either way and I can't see how scum would benefit. Actually, I guess they could if too many people post inaccurate reads (eg say Thomith is scum and visited Arugula last night, and a whole heap of us say 'not guilty' on Thomith, it would tell scum who the PR's are not etc).

So basically if we do it, everyone needs to give different reads from the people before them.

[TeChNoWC]

Actually, I just saw a problem in that too. If a PR follows someone who gave fake reads that were the same as theirs, it could show scum they are a PR.

Basically everyone just needs to not give a consensus of reads, but doubling up is ok (eg don't everyone say I investigated Thomith, not guilty). Two or three ok, but don't make it a template claim.

[BK201]

If hypo-claiming is done right I support it.

[TeChNoWC]

I would like Llama to confirm if my template is correct and show us how to do it, also if we should be doing Psych/Detective and Tracker too. I'm guessing most of the Tracker results will be the same. In this case, it might be best for half of the people to say they followed BK and half not, just in case the tracker didn't follow BK (this would stand out to scum).

[Venmar]

Lol, HerpyDurpyDurpDurp, i am the vig and i killed Arugula.

( I am kidding )

Anyways, confirming that i saw BK's plan.
Are we hypo claiming or not?

[LlamaFluff]

There is no point in hypoclaiming tracker results.

I want to say no to the other also given the high chance of scum figuring stuff out from it and the results not being overly conclusive for us. Best we can come up with is "probably not" results. Would be like basing endgame lynch off a negative tracker (slight town tell) result, which im not happy with, while the results are kinda trustable, its not so trustable that I want to risk losing the confirmable role (more important than any innocent result).

[TeChNoWC]

I see your point and it's likely there was no guilty result last night.

But what if there was and that PR gets killed tonight?

Should Psych/Detective claim now if they got a guilty result but otherwise they don't, and we just leave hypoclaim until tommorrow?

[DCLXVI]

...

I don't like how today's discussion has changed from "who is scum" to this mess over what bk should do.

Unless bk is going to declare his target (preferably thomith) I don't see the point in no-lynching today.

[andrew94]

so BK hide behind random person? and tracker track him?

[Nachomamma8]

I would much rather BK claim his target beforehand.

[BK201]

I would much rather BK claim his target beforehand.

Why?

[Venmar]

BK, don't reveal your target beforehand, i do not agree with this plan because i do not believe in sacrificing townies, specially not PR's who can potentially seek out scum. Unless i am not understanding this plan, i do not agree with it. BK can target whoever he is and I can always agree with his findings, unless he hits scum of course.

[Thomith]

i don't know, BK do you see anything good in you stating your target, if not could you explain?
Either way we need a definate plan, BK wants the tracker on him while he hides so i am happy to go along with that, but want to know for sure and why also.

[BK201]

Thomith are you always this lurky? I know others are worse, but I've only played 387 and 397 with you. 387(scum) you lurked much more than in 397(town).

Anyways announcing who I will hide behind is not something I will do, at least at this stage. It's basically letting scum get 2 kills instead of just 1, all for what? To free the tracker's tracking up? Whoopie.

[Thomith]

ummm, i am posting when i can, getting closer to exams so my activity will be a little less but will still post when i have something to say and have time.