Open 402 -- Hard Boiled (Game Over!)

[TeChNoWC]

@Llama: This idea that BK should stop hiding is ridiculous. What makes tracker and psyche/detective more of an asset? You do realise that if we mislynch today we go to mylo (im guessing three v three is a town loss)? How would BK not hiding tonight 'break the game?'

It will only get him killed. Scum could try and kill an unconf tommorrow night in an attempt to kill BK, but it would be too much of a risk. At this point they need to kill me or Venmar, especially if they lose a mafia today.

@Llama: What are your reads on Nacho and DCL? Seems to be a bit of distancing going on there...

[DCLXVI]

@DCL: If you don't like Llama's post, why is he not on your scumdar?

Just cause I dislike something doesn't make it scummy.

In the case of Llama saying we have a pr among us who is breadcrumbing, what he is doing is simply bad play. I don't see town or scum motivation for it. It's anti-town but not pro-scum.

[BK201]

VOTE: Nachomamma

[Nachomamma8]

I like how scum dont kill the most likely PR.

BK is done hiding since at worst 30% of the game is clear so there are three forced kills, im thinking more likely half the game at this point. If there is any type of guilty it should be claimed and then we can break the game. Im thinking if both results are not in the cleared players we can come close to breaking the game either way

If BK hides:
If scum try to kill BK overnight:
Worst case scenario will leave BK and his target dead overnight with no tracker guilty, which means that we'll be left at 7 player LyLo with 2 confirmed, which means 1 forced scumkill.
Best case scenario is BK gets another innocent and scum kills the wrong person, which means we will be at 7 player LyLo with 4 confirmed, which is also known as instawin.

If scum kill an innocent overnight:
Worst case scenario is one of the innocents is tracker, and BK dies behind a scum we don't know about, which means we will be at 7 player LyLo with 1 confirmed, which means they won't have to force a kill.
Best case scenario is that one of the innocents isn't a tracker, and BK survives to give us another innocent, which means that we will be at 7 player LyLo with 3 confirmed, which means forced scumkills to the end.

If BK doesn't hide:
Worst case scenario is scum kill tracker, which will leave us in 8 player MyLo with 3 confirmed town.
Best case scenario is scum kill a random unconfirmed which looks like tracker, which will still leave us in 8 player MyLo with 3 confirmed town, which just give more places for scum to hide.

I favor BK hiding today.

[Nachomamma8]

As for scum, Jackal, Kass, and DCL are my favored lynches for the day.

I have trouble really seeing scum outside of that group.

[LlamaFluff]

BK doesnt hide.

Scum have four nightkills left. There are seven - tracker (?) that are possible scum so if we open up the tracker to actually catching players who are submitting the kill on TOP of what the psych has... well we are making it highly likely that scum are going to get caught by the PRs. Again, we have four lynches tops, if BK hides and dies, we ARE having a claim-counter situation... it just is opening us for a whole lot more issues.

If we lynch normally, we keep an extra lynch, as even if BK catches scum in death we are forced to nail the partners one-two, and that is far harder than normal.

Also I am talking about the PR crumbs because its rediculous that scum didnt kill the player im talking about. They basically said "Hey im PR" in the most unsubtle way and given that they are NOT one of the clears, we have four of ten clear and factoring in myself its basically an auto-win. I see no way we lose this unless Venmar-Techo is a PR pair.

[BK201]

Let's not even bother with scenarios that includes BK hiding + tracker not tracking BK.

Also, scum-hunting is more important than what my night action will be.

[TeChNoWC]

As for scum, Jackal, Kass, and DCL are my favored lynches for the day.

I have trouble really seeing scum outside of that group.

I am not prepared to lynch Kass today (unless he comes in and gives some crazy input), and frankly it seems risky that you would propose this.

I know I am effectively giving him a free ticket to lurk. Doesn't matter. I would hope that, without other developments, he would be lynched before lylo. The way I see it is that he is an ABSOLUTE null tell, and mathematically the chances of him being being scum is less than the chances of him being town, so he survives today purely based on maths, to me. Apparently Kass always plays like this so him lurking says nothing about his alignment.

Nacho, what do you think of Thomith? Do you think he is town based on Llama's reasoning (since I know you had Llama as a townread)?

[TeChNoWC]

Bw's wagon.

Kassadin, nachomamma8,

Arugula

, LlamaFluff, Jackal711,

TeChNoWC

,

Venmar

I am guessing there is at least one scum on this wagon. From memory the wagon started with me and Llama (will check this).

One of Kass, Nacho, Llama and Jackal is scum, if not two of them. I would think at least one scum stayed off the wagon for distancing/semi-whiteknighting purposes.

[Venmar]

Well thats 4 out of the 7 unconfirmed we have there, there is a chance that all three of the scum were not on the wagon but i really doubt that.

After reading over the thread i am fine with a Nacho lynch, how about you Techno?

[TeChNoWC]

Well thats 4 out of the 7 unconfirmed we have there, there is a chance that all three of the scum were not on the wagon but i really doubt that.

After reading over the thread i am fine with a Nacho lynch, how about you Techno?

Hhmm...

I've been doing a hellton of re-reading and thinking, since I've had little to do the last two days.

Nacho fits the bill for me in a few different ways, hopefully I can gather my thoughts together and put them down. A lot of it is gut though. Also want to see what other people have to say, draw reads out of everyone. Interesting that no one has decided to address my questions/points from any of my posts yet other than you and BK.

Another thing that strikes me is this:

Rasp, BK,

, DCL, andrew94, Thomith.

The five people that weren't on the Bw wagon. If I am correct in my assertion that one of these people are scum, that means there is a 1/3 of a chance (and 2/3 if two) that we would hit scum if we lynch from that pool. Still, the idea that one scum wasn't on the wagon is weaker than the possibility that at least one scum was on the wagon, so I think it's a safer bet to look more closely at the other four. Still worth considering though.

I wasn't sure if this would be helpful, but I would like it if every unconf give another list of scum and townreads, but this time state reasons for EVERY SINGLE PERSON. Some players think T/S lists help scum but I think, particularly in this situation, it will allow us to gauge more accurately bussing/buddying/distancing from flips. Would like to hear what you and BK think about it though. I feel their could be potential risks in that it allows scum to mislead and set up people with NK's, etc.

[TeChNoWC]

@Venmar: almost forgot, in my reread I found that Llama was indeed the person who suggested the alliance first. I knew he had suggested it but thought maybe you were indicating that andrew mentioned it before him. No such post that I could find.

I was the first person with a (stated) scumread on Burke. Post 133.

Llama was the first person to actually vote him (not counting RVS, not sure if anyone did in RVS).

[Chimera]

Votecount 3.2

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

Nachomamma8 (1) -- BK201

Not voting -- andrew94, TeCHNoWC, LlamaFluff, Venmar, Kassadin, DLCXVI, Jackal711, Thomith, Nachomamma8

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-07-01 11:17:00)

[Venmar]

@Venmar: almost forgot, in my reread I found that Llama was indeed the person who suggested the alliance first. I knew he had suggested it but thought maybe you were indicating that andrew mentioned it before him. No such post that I could find.

I was the first person with a (stated) scumread on Burke. Post 133.

Llama was the first person to actually vote him (not counting RVS, not sure if anyone did in RVS).

I wasn't trying to say Andrew started the alliance, but he seemed to like it and suggested two of the oddest people to be in it, especially Kassadin, who like i said is probably the worst addition to the alliance due to how little he would do. I am having a hard time reading through this game because i am not sure of what to think there and there, but in general i can see Nacho being scum, and if we can't decide on a target today i say Nacho or Thomith are a good compromise.

Llama is kind of hard to read for me because of how she plays, so i guess more reading is needed in this field. However, lately Llama has suggested that BK should no longer hide, and wanted the Psychologist/Detective to claim his or her reads, which i kind of find scummy. Her early play in the game was pretty strong and townie, but she did a lot of vote hopping and now recently has been losing some town creds i gave her. Definitely a good choice to keep an eye at the very least.

For now though, i trust BK's intuition and after reading more on Nacho, i just feel like he is the right lynch today unless you can bring up a better case Techno?

Vote: Nacho

[TeChNoWC]

@Venmar: No, no stronger case really. I'm mulling over a few scumreads but Nacho is my strongest by gut. I still want to hear other people's reactions, simply because it might give me more leads on who is scum and why. Scum need more chances to slip and less to lurk at this stage. I also intend to jot down some reasons why I think Nacho is scum other than gut (not sure if I will get a chance over the weekend, but I will try my best).

@BK: Given you have already voted Nacho, I see no harm in you giving a case on him that doesn't relate to other people and your reads on them.

[Venmar]

Techno, what do you think of Llama?

Also, it is up to BK201 if he gives us his case, but i think it is vital that he keeps his hiding intentions a secret so he doesn't get shafted during the night, so careful on that if you do give your read BK.

[TeChNoWC]

Llama is hard to read. He gives me town vibes and scum vibes, and there are reasons (such as the one we were talking about earlier) that he looks scummy, and reasons that he looks towny (particularly that his play lines up with his town meta; protecting the VT claim, talk of alliances etc). Then again, he could be playing a good scumgame and putting the wool over my eyes. He seems fairly keen to contribute and lead town, which I find can be taken both ways by a strong player (scum or town). So I am not sure at this point.

Both Nacho and Llama's quick interjection today about who we should lynch, and the reference by both to jackal, seems kind of scummy to me. 'crap, let's set up a unified mislynch that others will grab hold of' or 'let's quicklynch one of our scumbuddies for towny points because this is looking desperate'. I am willing to think the former marginally more so. Jackal is starting to look more and more like a classic mislynch and I feel scum would want to try and keep all three of themselves alive at this point because they need a quick win rather than draw the game out, given their situation.

Still, I don't want to seem like I am jumping to conclusions and suggesting both Nacho and Llama are scum together. Their reactions today seemed quite similar though and they haven't said much about each other from what I could see in rereads (Nacho said he felt Llama was town, can't recall seeing anything from Llama about Nacho. It takes me a few rereads before everything sinks in, again why I should be taking today slowly), which is classic distancing.

And yes, andrew wanting Kass and Nacho in the alliance is a point of concern. I would like him to explain this.

[Thomith]

i personally think BK should hide today and unless llama can prove to me that it is a good idea for bk to not hide, i think they should continue hiding, because at worst we lose bk and get a conf scum, and best case we get another clear.

p-edit: thats a little confusing, do you think we could have a llama,nacho,jackal team? or are you saying llama and nacho are scum trying to get a mislynch or jackal?

[TeChNoWC]

Also, I kind of misrepped DCL earlier. He did in fact reply to me. Just thought I should point this out.

Pedit: I'm suggesting it is more likely that Jackal wouldn't be in a hypothetical scumteam with Llama and nacho, and if they are scum they want him as an easy mislynch. Then again, I don't see how it would be impossible. Bussing the 'least-active-more-likely-to-look-scum' scummy is kind of good for scum.

Look at everyone's reads. Jackal was the most likely to be lynched going into D2. And I am starting to think that scum would love to play on this, considering I believe Jackal's 'apathetic' claim in hindsight.

[TeChNoWC]

Also, BK dead with conf scum is not the worst case scenario. BK + towny (potential PR) dead with no lead from tracker is the worst scenario, and it's a bad one, but an unlikely one I think.

A lot of it comes down to whether or not today ends in a mislynch.

[TeChNoWC]

Post 743, D2 should read D3.

[BK201]

Me not hiding is dumb. If scum want to gamble they can, but the odds are in my favor. Trying to kill me will lead to a pretty easy win for us or even an instant win.

I'm considering posting about nacho, give me a minute.

[andrew94]

@Tech, i said nacho and kassadin because i feel that
kassadin is town and that nacho was town at that point of time.


also, i think kass is town due to some gut, but i feel your reasoning
isnt nice either.
you said the maths suggests kass to be more town than scum.
That will always be the case, until we lose....

I dont know about Llama, but i think hes a he. Please confirm that as i have been using he for the whole game. My apologies if im wrong.
He states that he saw someone crumbing and that the person crumbing
is not one of the clears.
IF he were scum, wouldnt he just kill that particular guy he was
talking about? That slightly points him into town but he might be
tricking.
I like Jackal more as scum

[Venmar]

LlamaFluff has an alt that he plays on very frequently, on that alt his gender is listed ad Female, on this account it is Male. So i have no idea.

@Andrew94

- Why do you think Jackal is scum? He seems like a easy target for scum because of how Jackal plays.
- Why aren't you voting for Jackal if you think he is scum?

[BK201]

I like Jackal more as scum

Need a lot more than that.