Open 402 -- Hard Boiled (Game Over!)

[DCLXVI]

@techno

you are saying you want kass lynched before lylo..

well guess what, if we mislynch today tomorrow will be mylo...so...

[TeChNoWC]

Nacho, sorry can't be bothered to quote post, here's my responses to yours in order:

1. You haven't been posting that much. What tells me you will in lylo?And I do have reasoning on you, albeit it's nothing supercool, but it makes me think you are more likely to be scum than Kass.

2. The way you commented was odd. Both you and Llama seemed to ignore the prevailing discussion at the time (I'm not saying you had to agree with any of it, just comment on what you thought) and instead both of you showed signs of wanting a Jackal lynch. Correct me if I am wrong but neither of you even stated reasons; it was somehow just universally accepted that Jackal looked scummy. No inquiry into why or why he was behaving the way he was. Although, I do remember seeing you pushing him D1, so I'll recheck this.

3. Fair enough.

4. Yes, him not claiming was good, but still risky. Had he actually been a PR, we could have been in for a nasty surprise.
I'm fine if you don't feel like claiming yet, I realise there has been no formal case put against you (well, nothing big and well outlayed yet) and I would like to back and forth with you a bit more first.

@DCL: Yes, you are right. If we mislynch today I would be promoting a Kass lynch tommorrow *sigh* fuck this.

KASS, I CAN SEE HOW YOUR PLAYSTYLE HELPS TOWN (at times), BUT NOW WOULD BE A GREAT FUCKING TIME TO CONTRIBUTE MORE

Kass, why should I not lynch you?

And if your answer looks like this

'cos I'm town '

Don't be blaming me when we mislynch your arse and town loses.

[BK201]

I might as well give my reads, I'd like to see scum gamble hitting one of the unconfirmed in an attempt to kill me too. Even with a mislynch that'd be 4 confirmed town, 1 unconfirmed town, and 3 scum. Easy win.

[BK201]

I suggest that the Psychologist/Detective slot claims now rather than in possible Lylo.

Even if you didn't get a guilty (I assume you have not b/c you have not come forward), it still gives us another confirmed town assuming you're not Venmar or Tech. Scum would likely take you out tonight b/c conf PR is better than conf unknown role, but you would be narrowing down the scumhunting, and maybe even saving the more important at this point role, Tracker.

Plus your innocent results are not concrete information depending on how mafia distributed their NK's but its still something to consider.

Would not suggest the Tracker claims.

[TeChNoWC]

I might as well give my reads, I'd like to see scum gamble hitting one of the unconfirmed in an attempt to kill me too. Even with a mislynch that'd be 4 confirmed town, 1 unconfirmed town, and 3 scum. Easy win.

Careful bro.

I suggest only your Nacho reads for now.

Pedit: Tracker definitely not claim. I was considering psych but I'm not sure. Couple of issues for me.

[LlamaFluff]

I think a psych who has two negative reads in the uncleared should claim since it exceedingly unlikely for both of those players to be scum.

Im still waiting for that nacho case.

[TeChNoWC]

I have a possible suggestion.

We do a particular sort of claim scenario.

1. If you are not the Psych/Detective, simply claim VT.
2. Me and Venmar will claim VT, no matter what.
3. If you are the Psych/Detective but you don't feel like claiming, don't voice any complaints, just claim VT.
4. This means that Tracker claims VT as well.

So if we end up with all VT claims, either me or Venmar are the Psych/Detective, or the Psych/Detective doesn't want to claim. A bit of WIFOM for the mafia, and we haven't exactly wasted a PR claim on an already conftown.

[Venmar]

Claim: Vanilla Townie

[BK201]

@Tech, that works.

[TeChNoWC]

Claim: Vanilla Townie

[LlamaFluff]

If they thought it was best to claim they would have by now. Given what im saying its either not me, a result of mine is dead/cleared, or im the detective and dont think its smart to claim.

Really unless there is a condeming result, they probably shouldnt claim unless its two innocents as a psych which suggests not scum together heavily as if scum doesnt know what they are up against sticking to the same player submitting kills is the safe move since if its a detective they dont have multiple players that are going to be catchable that fast, while as psych one gets caught but after that psych becomes a null threat.

We are all going to claim VT here so its just a pointless practice. I still personally think its time to retire BK and let the tracker have some fun.

[BK201]

I like how you're discouraging the Psyche from doing so. Stop that.

[Venmar]

Lol LlamaFluff, why you want BK to die so bad?

[TeChNoWC]

Tell me Llama, what is more powerful, Hider role or Psych/Detective role?

And why.

[BK201]

Retire me? Ha, I'm going to confirm another town b/c mafia won't risk killing an unconfirmed. Even with a mislynch, they will literally lose the game if they try that and miss. They have to kill one of the confirmed. We need more confirmed, so psyche should claim, and I should keep hiding.

[TeChNoWC]

If psyche/detective claims, we also minimize the risk of BK hiding behind him, making it even more risky for mafia to kill unconf when BK hides. And if Psyche is one of us confirmed or doesn't want to claim, well we have lost nothing.

[TeChNoWC]

Retire me? Ha, I'm going to confirm another town b/c mafia won't risk killing an unconfirmed. Even with a mislynch, they will literally lose the game if they try that and miss. They have to kill one of the confirmed. We need more confirmed, so psyche should claim, and I should keep hiding.

BK, after saying this, do not give your reads.

[LlamaFluff]

I like how you're discouraging the Psyche from doing so. Stop that.

There are seven uncleared players at this point yes?

With that many and removing the psych there is going to be one false negative and two true positives in all likelyhood. This means two negatives mean they are not scum together. Given only one result though, its about a 20% (or greater) chance of being a false positive. Thats high to me for risking outting a psych if thats all that left. Yes im explicitly discouraging any psych claim that does not have to negative results.

Detective is even worse and should not claim under any circumstance since even though the chance is low (5%?) they can have two false results on two scum. Claiming without two uncleared results is just outting a role for a mild town tell. Claiming WITH two eliminates a pairing and still are mild town tells. Not strong, I think they fall below closed setup tracker theory, but still existant.

@Venmar - I would be happy if he stopped hiding and died. If you think about it for a second the reasoning should be somewhat obvious for why im at least somewhat ok with that type of event. Far worse things can happen.

Now if you guys want the psych to claim explicitly for the sake of trying to break the setup, thats a different matter (heck I think I can point them out to you if you want me to force them to claim). That works fine though if you would rather do things that way. I just was thinking you wanted information and chances are information they would give is simply unreliable or they would have outted it already.

[BK201]

@Llama, The results of the Psyche/Detective are inconsequential unless he has a guilty. I want him to claim to further PoE the scum. I doubt one more night of results from the Psyche/Detective will catch scum, and a claim in Lylo will be taken with a grain of salt.

[BK201]

In other words, it will help all of our scumhunting, for those of us that are actually scumhunting.

[LlamaFluff]

Tell me Llama, what is more powerful, Hider role or Psych/Detective role?

And why.

At this point in the game? Psych because they can start partially clearing town. Hider is a better early game role that as the ratio of town to scum alive dips becomes more of a liability. Its like the inverse of a town RBer that is going to more likely damage the town the first few nights but be strong if it makes it past a scum lynch.

@Llama, The results of the Psyche/Detective are inconsequential unless he has a guilty. I want him to claim to further PoE the scum. I doubt one more night of results from the Psyche/Detective will catch scum, and a claim in Lylo will be taken with a grain of salt.

Two innocents from a psych means that the players are essentially cleared as scum with eachother to the extent where I would almost be fine treating it as a cop innocent on one if the other flips scum. Only way this is not true is if psych hit scum submitting the kill both nights, a statistical improbaility even IF scum actually mix up who sent in the kill.

[BK201]

^All the more reason for the Psyche to claim.

[TeChNoWC]

Tell me Llama, what is more powerful, Hider role or Psych/Detective role?

And why.

At this point in the game? Psych because they can start partially clearing town. Hider is a better early game role that as the ratio of town to scum alive dips becomes more of a liability. Its like the inverse of a town RBer that is going to more likely damage the town the first few nights but be strong if it makes it past a scum lynch.

@Llama, The results of the Psyche/Detective are inconsequential unless he has a guilty. I want him to claim to further PoE the scum. I doubt one more night of results from the Psyche/Detective will catch scum, and a claim in Lylo will be taken with a grain of salt.

Two innocents from a psych means that the players are essentially cleared as scum with eachother to the extent where I would almost be fine treating it as a cop innocent on one if the other flips scum. Only way this is not true is if psych hit scum submitting the kill both nights, a statistical improbaility even IF scum actually mix up who sent in the kill.

All this is nice, but if psych claims under my given format we have another conftown RIGHT NOW. Not half conf, not semi conf with a few WIFOM cakes on the side, conf conf conf conf. And if mafia want to CC, nice trade kthanks guys.

[drmyshotgun]

We are not massclaiming here are we?

[TeChNoWC]

We are not massclaiming here are we?

Read my 906.