Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)


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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:15 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 583, Tierce wrote:Hai. Haven't read, and going out in a bit. First priority will be parsing Llamarble for hider breadcrumbs, see if he didn't hide behind OAFE or Nacho.


To bounce more off of Minimum, not only can anyone do that, but it really doesn't serve any good purpose. There are a million and one better uses for your time than to try and guess at who Llamarble
might
have hid behind and then try and post up a case from there.

Don't like the 4nx push on Quilford, feels really reaching.

Minimum/MoI and Minimum/Nuwen disinterest me, feels like a lot of bullshit and not a lot of usefulness going on.

Shin's posting is just really bad, I'm not sure what to make of it. Pretty sure he's not Night due to the tail end of D1 from Staeg (scum gain more from a forceful push on their partner than a half-assed one, so so much more.). Could be Commexo, his posting feels all sorts of survivalish. Very reactive to events in the game, not very proactive at all.

As for the "Send" mechanic, I vote we let it pass us by the wayside, it's really not something we can benefit from this early in the game based on lone speculation. Not only that, but it's an inherently scum-sided mechanic as it doesn't stop factionals, meaning scum simply lose a PR, but not a goon. Really not a huge tradeoff compared to what could be lost by town.

VOTE: Shinori

The more I read, the more I really dislike.
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:16 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

I also like how so many reads are getting sheeped. It's cute. But it does make this easier so I'm not scumplaining.

Noone has even
mentioned
what I would say is my #1 town read so far.
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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:17 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

We aren't lynching Commexo reads D2, Agar.
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:23 pm

Post by Minimum »

In post 648, Hinduragi wrote:
In post 647, Minimum wrote:Oh, the above post was CES, by the way.

To be quite honest, I've stopped caring by now.

I'm not sure if I've trolled you or trolled myself.
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:25 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

I know it was Mina if that's what you're asking.
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:34 pm

Post by Regfan »

AGar, we're not lynching Commexo today and if we were we'd be lynching RC before Shinori. I want your 'Night reads'.

SoO, I know you've been online so get in here and finish your 'catch-up post' that you promised to be finished in .
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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:35 pm

Post by AGar »

Hindu (and P-Edit: Reg too):

Why not? D1, I can understand. You want to build off of D1. D2 is usually a day I've found in my experiences to be a dud day, where town usually chases some kind of bad interactions between the D1 lynchee and whoever they end up lynching D2 that is quite often wrong.A Commexo read on D2 relies on pretty independent analysis of the player (which the town as a collective seemed to do ok at D1, which is a plus), and while it's a bit harder, provides greater gains.

-- The following is running off of the Llamarble-hid-behind-OAFE/Nacho assumption and not banking on a vig right now --

Taking out Commexo on D2 puts town on a better game clock - Commexo lynch puts us at MYLO on Day 7 in a worst-case-scenario (6 town 4 Night), where as Night lynch puts us in a 4 town 4 anti-town (3 Night, 1 Commexo) on Day 6 worst case scenario and a Town lynch puts us in a pretty ugly 6 town 5 anti-town scenario on Day 5.

You're not going to get "good reads" on an SK like you are a typical scum player. There are no connections, there are no "interactions" - there are only innate behaviors that relate to the necessity to outlive a large number of people in this game (23 vs. 1). He needs to avoid at least 6-7 nights of kills AND survive roughly 8 day phases (assuming Night's last member is the Day 7 lynch which is the best case scenario for Commexo). That's a tall order.

Why not take a Day while we're a step ahead to try and put ourselves even further ahead rather than wait until we're in dire straits to figure out a way to prolong our situation? Eventually Commexo needs to be weeded out because the longer we wait, the smaller the gains (even if we lynch him in a phase 1 day before LYLO with him alive, we're in LYLO the next day anyways).
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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:40 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

SK isn't a role that's that easy and especially is dumb to compare tells or any such meta to. 3rd party as well. It's just a distraction and I'm not having that shit in a D2 when we've got one Day of info and then a small part of D2 to go off of.

Yes, it's helpful if we get it. But there are definitely more scum. If we go after them and happen to get Commexo, great. They get priority. If we don't go for them, then welp, there goes our chances of winning. Also, it's easier for scum to help find him and blend in. Not only that, but he's a threat to them as well. Scum get priority simply because he helps us in more ways than hurts us as well.

We aren't a step ahead because we just lost 3 fucking townies in a single Night. That's devastating compared to a single scum flip.
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:41 pm

Post by Regfan »

Lynching for Commexo D2 is a bad idea because missing gives you little to no information, scum can scumhunt for the SK just as well as town can meaning that scum can blend in a lot easier and a lot more naturally as well. So yeah, not worth it especially in cases where you doubt the lynchee is Night.

Plus while I understand your "D2 is normally wrong lynches due to bad interaction chases" point I think there's enough obvtown that we can narrow down the lynch pool to a small enough group of players that gives us a fantastic shot at lynching scum again today.
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:13 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 657, Hinduragi wrote:We aren't a step ahead because we just lost 3 fucking townies in a single Night. That's devastating compared to a single scum flip.


My numbers are all off because I forgot to calculate the Two-In-One's lover-aspect, but needless to say, we basically bought ourselves an extra day/night phase with the lynch yesterday. So yes, we still are a step ahead.
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:02 pm

Post by Minimum »

Basing your analyses off of worst case scenarios in a large game is garbage.
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Post Post #661 (ISO) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:42 pm

Post by Minimum »

I'm really disappointed that Untrod Tripod replaced out, because I think his alignment would have been a lot clearer if I'd wrangled more information out of him. Most of the problems I have with him are based on things he didn't clarify.

But I just wanted to bring up a couple of points against the slot (obviously, Tierce can't defend against them, but at the very least this might motivate people to keep a closer eye on her).

I already mentioned this:
In post 129, Minimum wrote:
V-Untrod Tripod


The only thing that stands out to me is this:

I'm having a hard time seeing chesskid as town from his interactions with MoI, but I'll let it slide for now
since we're apparently frying other fish at the moment.

This attitude is one of my pet peeves. What's stopping you from attacking chesskid if you really want to? It's not like this is deadline and it actually matters who's getting the most heat from the loudest voices in the town?

Hs next post completely ignored me, never followed up on his chesskid and AGar, and just asked Llamarble a throwaway question. Given how unlikely he made it sound that chesskid was town (for nebulous reasons he never explained), it was weird to drop a read like that and never follow up on it. Furthermore, why didn't he attack me again?

I was annoyed at the time, checked back...and saw chesskid and AGar both had only one vote each on them. Chesskid actually had
two
due to Strain. (Granted, Fate was pushing AGar, but still, UT clearly was talking out his ass by throwing out a chesskid scumread but acting like it wasn't worth pushing because of group consensus.)

After some discussion, we decided to hold off for a few days and see if he'd lurk while under no pressure rather than call him out.

I'll take Bella's word that the lurking was fairly null, but his last post was also terrible.

unvote, vote Llama

I'm still having a really hard time looking past him trying to start inculcating a scum read on Nuwen before she posted anything. Also his interactions with MoI came across to me as him trying to sneakily set up some discrediting of the claim, which doesn't seem very town to me at all.

The timing of this vote was horribly scummy, and looked like he was going, "Look, I mentioned Llamarble's name before, so I can explain jumping onto this wayon!" Except his question at the time was just a weak half-hearted prod, and a terrible reason for a vote. It's totally valid to suspect someone of being the most likely scum on your wagon out of PoE, particularly if you think she's lurking.

Also, the MoI thing seems like talking out of his ass. I just reread Llamarble. The only points he ever makes about MoI are
agreeing that people in the pool are good lynches
. He sure as fuck never "sneakily discredits" him, other than one post where he sort of vaguely consider others' opinions that it's a gambit.

Never mind that the "doesn't seem very town to me at all" is super oily, and that he still doesn't mention chesskid in that post.
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Post Post #662 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:50 am

Post by Shinori »

Inb4 agar is the third party and chess is just scum and they are working together secretly.

Nah more inclined to believe both are scum and Agar is trying to push more lynch pressure on me for some other bullshit reasoning when the reasoning from day 1 wasn't going through.
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Post Post #663 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 2:51 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

Hindu wrote: Noone has even mentioned what I would say is my #1 town read so far.


So what? Frankly your top Town-read not being mentioned probably means people don’t find them suspect …

--

Minamum wrote:Protip: catching scum is not combing through someone's posts to find two sentences that you quote with made-up context, and then screaming, "CONTRADICTION. SCUM! YOU'RE BUSTED."


Yeah, scum-hunting is allowing someone tracked to a kill to create a fake-claim and not lynching him which was key in letting scum win the game…. (am I doing the condescension right Mina?)

Let’s be realistic … it was hardly ‘combing through’ posts … they were made within 13 posts of each other. You seem to be suggesting I did akin to something finding some quote from Day 1 and trying to show how it didn’t align with a Town mindset to a quote from Day 3 (which is still valid scum-hunting BTW) which is rather absurd.

CES was trying to float that it is generally expected that a claimed Tracker with 2 shots of track is a danger to a Serial Killer. And that is correct. The discontinuity comes from him somehow suggesting that Llama (who is not an idiot) would disregard this and hide behind Once anyway. It’s a pretty ridiculous theory to float given what Llama said himself about Once’s claim – he found it credible. So CES is floating a theory that doesn’t make sense.

Trying to use insults and frame my post in a way that suggests my thought process as invalid isn’t very Town-Mina. In fact Mina Is the player who as Town decries insults (IMO) … Clash of Kings again comes to mind on this.

Minamum wrote:First of all, we actually weren't expecting OAFE to die before his flip on D2. Is there a reason that you decided to omit this relevant quote (which makes it pretty damn obvious Minimum never called OAFE "an obvious nightkill target", just speculated on why he died):


What are you arguing here? That CES’s did have any expectation that Once was a likely Serial Killer target with his claim? Highlighting the word probably in the quote you picked doesn’t change the fact that he again called it ‘Standard SK-Tracker interaction’. It isn’t something that he as Town wouldn’t have expected going into Night if this was the case.

So … is it a general expectation that a Serial Killer would kill a Tracker (as a threat to the Serial Killer) or not? CES can get on the horn and answer with a Yes or No.

Minamum wrote:Second of all, even if CES really thought OAFE was the obvious NK, maybe Llamarble would have thought differently. OAFE was under a lot of suspicion and still somewhat lynchable. Llamarble might not have realized that the tracker claim made OAFE a riskier hider choice. It's possible he tried to confirm a popular suspect whom he personally read as town. (Personally, I don't think there's enough information to be sure either way, but that's beside the point.)


Well maybe Llama was struck by Death Rays from Mars (had to use this classic Law and Order quote given the absuridity of this). Here’s the facts … Once being under suspicion is hardly relevant since Llama himself believed the claim. See as a reminder for you.

Llama’s not dumb enough to have used the Hider role that badly. He would not be hiding behind a play he graces with a ProbTown read BEFORE Day ended.

Minamum wrote:It's just null speculation over night actions. Whether or not the theory makes sense has no relation to our alignment. It's not like Minimum claimed hider who'd hidden behind OAFE (well, assuming he didn't die), and then said something like, "OAFE was obviously going to be killed by the SK last night."


Nope. It is not all ‘Null’ speculation. CES posited that Llama ‘could have been hiding behind OAFE’ ( for the record) as his first line of discussion. Not that he hid behind Nacho (which makes more sense from Llama’s ISO than Once, although I personally don’t think it is what happened) but that he specifically hid behind the claimed Miller / Tracker who Llama specifically indicated wasn’t a likely target via ISO.

I see this a clouding the water type speculation as opposed to actually looking for answers and it’s why I find you guys scummy.

Minamum wrote: Did you actually believe that post when you made it, Magna?


Of course I did. Why would you ask such a pointless question? It’s pointless because the answer is going to be ‘Yes’ regardless of alignment so it’s just filler.

--

AGar wrote:To bounce more off of Minimum, not only can anyone do that, but it really doesn't serve any good purpose. There are a million and one better uses for your time than to try and guess at who Llamarble might have hid behind and then try and post up a case from there.


Nope. A flipped Hider from a Non-Derp player means that ISOing him from breadcrumbs is a very useful activity. DGB’s Hider play in Dead Red Redemption (which shamefully got eaten by Tigers) was a perfect example of how an smart Hider plays the role.

AGar wrote:Shin's posting is just really bad, I'm not sure what to make of it. Pretty sure he's not Night due to the tail end of D1 from Staeg (scum gain more from a forceful push on their partner than a half-assed one, so so much more.). Could be Commexo, his posting feels all sorts of survivalish. Very reactive to events in the game, not very proactive at all.

[Stuff removed to save space]


VOTE: Shinori


This quite frankly is terrible. You aren’t a newbie … you very well know that specifically hunting for a Serial Killer when 4 Night players remain is correlated with being Night. I’m going to have to decide if you would be so brazen as scum to do so …
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Post Post #664 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 3:46 am

Post by Minimum »

Nice try. You aren't going to get me to continue a wall-off with you, even by baiting me.

Why? Because firstly, I'm obviously not getting lynched today. Secondly, because you're getting nightkilled long before endgame, so it doesn't make a difference what my read on you is.

But you realize that since all three are dead, it's totally irrelevant whether Llamarble hid behind Nacho or OAFE, right? So it's not muddying anything, just a difference of opinions. Seriously, you should have just accused Minimum of IIoA or something.

CES can answer the question about SKs if he wants, although I don't think it makes a difference.
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Post Post #665 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:02 am

Post by Fate »

This Shinori mislynch scum are trying to push through is pretty laughable... that ship has sailed.


Scum down a member always try to go back to some pathetic D1 wagon, especially bussing scum.

AGar and Quilford, both scum. Quil for how he acknowledged AGars HORRIBLE bus post, then goes to Shinori today????

Anx is town and saw this

Tierce and chesskid can also die whenever
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Post Post #666 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:05 am

Post by Fate »

Obviously not lynching for SK today. As it stands, both scum are hoping the other will kill me. With SK dead I'm a more logcial kill, and I want to live damnt
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Post Post #667 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:26 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

In post 664, Minimum wrote:Nice try. You aren't going to get me to continue a wall-off with you, even by baiting me.

Why? Because firstly, I'm obviously not getting lynched today. Secondly, because you're getting nightkilled long before endgame, so it doesn't make a difference what my read on you is.

But you realize that since all three are dead, it's totally irrelevant whether Llamarble hid behind Nacho or OAFE, right? So it's not muddying anything, just a difference of opinions. Seriously, you should have just accused Minimum of IIoA or something.

CES can answer the question about SKs if he wants, although I don't think it makes a difference.


So to summarize ...

1. You'd don't feel you can actually refute what I'm saying so ... disengage.
2. You know I am Town. That I approve of.
3. You know you will not be Nightkill since you are scum but know I will so are banking on people not caring about my reads. Noted.
4. You want to keep trying to minimize the fact that CES's statements were objectively scummy and hope by dismissing things as a 'difference of opinion' it will go away.

Glad we could come to an agreement that I'm Town and you aren't.
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Post Post #668 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:34 am

Post by Shmugen »

I can feel myself mentally disengaging. Someone please drag me back into this with some questions.
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Post Post #669 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:37 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

In post 668, Shmugen wrote:I can feel myself mentally disengaging. Someone please drag me back into this with some questions.


Oh, the Espeonage tell ...

Here's a question Shmug ... who are your partners?
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Post Post #670 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:41 am

Post by Shmugen »

Fate/Regfan.

Next question please.
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Post Post #671 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 4:43 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

Magister Ludi 18
Nuwen 12
4nxi3ty 11
Bella 10
RedCoyote 8
Seraphim 8
sword_of_omens 7
Untrod Tripod / Tierce 5

So if you are on this list of players with less than half the number of posts of the Mod (40 at the time of this post) you probably need to step up your posting. Doubly so if you have 1/4 or less the number of Hito (hint ... that line starts with Bella).

If you are scum please continue as we can lynch you with clear conscious later ...
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Post Post #672 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:21 am

Post by Seraphim »

Staeg and chesskid


219 wrote:Pretty sure RC is town and one/two of anx/chess are scum.

541 wrote:That's a mean way to mark my passing


Incredibly minimal interaction. He only follows up on the RC read, which he explains in post 253 and the anxiety read, wich he contradicts by calling him prob-town in post 406. There is never any follow-up on his chesskid read. He's pretty quick to abandon his paradigm though.


Staeg and Petapan


293 wrote:Nope.
Fate, hindu's right. This thing's scum.

unvote
Vote: OAFE


487 wrote:He's town but absolutely not for these reasons.


Like chesskid, his interactions with peta are minimal. First, he uses OAFE's vote on petapan as a grounds to vote him in post 293 and then says that peta's reasons for calling Hindu town are wrong in post 487, though hindu is town himself. I don't see scum contradicting one of their partner's reads in such a weird way like in 487.

Staeg and Bella


........lawl nothing

Staeg and UT


438 wrote:Okay no I'm retarded
I'll help you along with that wagon; still think shinori's scum
unvote
Vote: UT


I think this should put to rest UT/Tierce scum allegations for the moment. I'm not sure why scum would try to discredit wagon on popular town lynch in order to bus their buddy. Staeg wasn't facing any pressure at that point, no reason to abandon ship.

Okay, taking a look at chesskid's play, I would like to say that both Staeg and chesskid were pushing the same two lynches: Shinori and UT until he finally votes Staeg in 499 in what could very well be bussing. The same two lynches(admittedly at two different times), lynches that look like serious scumbait to me. I don't think UT's play has been that scummy, merely distracted. Also, Staeg's vote on UT, as explained earlier, was not timed right to be a bus. It doesn't make any sense as a bus IMO. Shinori's play reads VI town under pressure and I'd be happy to provide some examples of why to anyone interested.

In the meantime, I would suggest people join me in voting chesskid.
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Post Post #673 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:22 am

Post by AGar »

In post 663, MagnaofIllusion wrote:This quite frankly is terrible. You aren’t a newbie … you very well know that specifically hunting for a Serial Killer when 4 Night players remain is correlated with being Night. I’m going to have to decide if you would be so brazen as scum to do so …


Not a Newbie? Correct.

But you're right, we should wait until the combination of Night+Commexo absolutely ravages our numbers before we actually start to look for Commexo. Figure this: We're going to lose something akin to 2 a night while both factions remain. You guys want to say "Hey, let's look for Night! Fuck Commexo, they can wait!" That's great, but what do you do when you don't hit Night and the two kills demolish our numbers? Then what?

Why ignore something that seems pretty fairly straightforward right now and instead go on a wild goose chase. Tell me, oh wise ones, what leads you all have off of Staeg's flip, since that's the only real reason I can see anyone saying "Oh well we're going to completely ignore Commexo and go for Night." - because you have strong association/interaction based reads off of Staeg's lynch.

Commexo isn't going to look for Night, and vice versa - they both help each other in big ways right now. As long as they avoid cross-fire, their relationship over the first few days is going to be fairly mutual in trying to keep each other from being found. At most, Commexo might try and snipe a few Night so he or she doesn't wind up in a situation where town is already done and now Night just has to find the SK.
Ski mask? Check! Sawed off? Check! Guilty conscience, fear of death? Check! Check! Check!

Get to know me. Or don't. I won't tell you what to do. I'm not God. Or your father. Or your boss.
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Minimum
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Goon
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Posts: 547
Joined: April 16, 2012

Post Post #674 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:48 am

Post by Minimum »

In post 667, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 664, Minimum wrote:Nice try. You aren't going to get me to continue a wall-off with you, even by baiting me.

Why? Because firstly, I'm obviously not getting lynched today. Secondly, because you're getting nightkilled long before endgame, so it doesn't make a difference what my read on you is.

But you realize that since all three are dead, it's totally irrelevant whether Llamarble hid behind Nacho or OAFE, right? So it's not muddying anything, just a difference of opinions. Seriously, you should have just accused Minimum of IIoA or something.

CES can answer the question about SKs if he wants, although I don't think it makes a difference.


So to summarize ...

1. You'd don't feel you can actually refute what I'm saying so ... disengage.
2. You know I am Town. That I approve of.
3. You know you will not be Nightkill since you are scum but know I will so are banking on people not caring about my reads. Noted.
4. You want to keep trying to minimize the fact that CES's statements were objectively scummy and hope by dismissing things as a 'difference of opinion' it will go away.

Glad we could come to an agreement that I'm Town and you aren't.

...um...

...you...do realize there's a guaranteed serial killer in the game, right?

Let's just say I'm getting
A Storm of Swords
flashbacks in more ways than one.

If there's a quote you'd really like a defense to, point it out. But this exchange isn't productive.

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