Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)

[RedCoyote]

I just can't write it off as easily as MoI goofing around. Sorry. You can write a page on how much you think Bella is town, but this problem has to be resolved. I don't know how y'all can just bury your collective heads in the sand and pretend it's not standing there right in front of us. Not on the premise that MoI was screwing around. Nah, that's a total cop out. MoI hasn't given the indication that he was staging a gambit, and, when asked directly, he flatly denied it. Sure, that was in D1, but that doesn't mean it doesn't continue to apply.

Besides, I wouldn't want to lynch until he came back anyways. If that means twiddling thumbs for a few days, well, so be it. But I'm committed at this point. Minimum, I think you mentioned that the role was unreasonable. I disagree completely. The Mod had no way to predict the unfortunate start the Night-aligned team would have. It doesn't make MoI a mini-IC either. It's solidly helpful, but it's also WIFOMy. I guess we're just seeing this theme completely differently, and I don't know what to say to resolve that.

[Bella]

At this point, I don't see how you can justify considering MoI a liar AND town. The 1 in 3 thing has dragged on for long enough without adding any clarity to the situation that the only possibilities now are that he's town and thus telling the truth or scum locked into an early gambit.

[4nxi3ty]

its not really a problem though since all you have to do is scumhunt like normal. It is similar to setup spec since we don't have any evidence to prove moi is telling the truth. Like setup speculation it shouldn't be the sole reason for a lynch.

However, I took a second look at chesskid and all of his votes were on the night team aside from rvs, that is way too much of a coincidence for me not to reconsider a mattp lynch today.

gonna reread some shinori/mattp stuff

[4nxi3ty]

well i could also see the possibilty townmoi being potcommited to the gambit and not wanting to back down unless he got strong townreads on all three of you.

[AGar]

VOTE: Quilford

Freakishly in need of death.

[Quilford]

Why do I have a wagon on me?

VOTE: AGar

Freakishly in need of death.

[petapan]

lmao

try again, AGar is town now, tierce screwed that one up for you

[AGar]

Also, instead of this 1-in-3 talk, we should be lynching out of Quilford/MattP. I feel like :goodthings: will come of this.

[Minimum]

No one lynch anyone until MagnaofIllusion comes back from his V/LA.

I can't believe some of you. "Oh, don't be silly. We can't act on a roleclaim, because we can't trust anything that MagnaofIllusion says. Because he might just be

lying

! Oh, but the fact that he's lying is totally alignment-null. Because lying is just soooo much fun!" And I agree with the argument that these players will never be nightkilled until endgame, so now's a good opportunity to take advantage of the mechanic. But we need MoI to fullclaim right now before we lynch, if only because certain people have admitted they'd totally believe him if he backed down.

But anyway, since he's nowhere close to a lynch:

VOTE: MattP

I'm personally agnostic on him vs. Bella, but given that my hydra partner felt strongly that it was Matt, I feel like I should at least put some momentum in that direction.

His claiming he would reread Bella to see how town she sounded in the game with MoI...um, if you think that Bella sounds relatively genuine, then what do you think of MoI? That said, I'm not a fan of Bella's claim (for the record, Hinduragi's argument that her Tidal Jim breadcrumb makes her town is crap and borderline "I have extra information and I'm trying to sound super town by being the only one to passionately defend lynchbait"; Hindu, what meta experience do you have with Bella that makes you know her meta so well?) I could see her reading too much into her flavour text as a VT, but her claim feels a bit too much like Tierce's ("Claiming VT is boring and will get me lynched...so let me try to work in some weird flavour confirmation instead.")

[Minimum]

Upon reflection, this argument is pointless. I promise not to discuss the 1 in 3 until MagnaofIllusion returns from his V/LA--as long as no one lynches before he returns.

Oh, Shmugen. What's your read on MagnaofIllusion?

Gamma, sell me on RedCoyote-town.

Bella, can you explain your town reads on Seraphim, sword_of_omens, and AGar? And why don't you have any scumreads outside MoI and Matt?

I just can't write it off as easily as MoI goofing around. Sorry. You can write a page on how much you think Bella is town, but this problem has to be resolved. I don't know how y'all can just bury your collective heads in the sand and pretend it's not standing there right in front of us. Not on the premise that MoI was screwing around. Nah, that's a total cop out. MoI hasn't given the indication that he was staging a gambit, and, when asked directly, he flatly denied it. Sure, that was in D1, but that doesn't mean it doesn't continue to apply.

Besides, I wouldn't want to lynch until he came back anyways. If that means twiddling thumbs for a few days, well, so be it. But I'm committed at this point. Minimum, I think you mentioned that the role was unreasonable. I disagree completely. The Mod had no way to predict the unfortunate start the Night-aligned team would have. It doesn't make MoI a mini-IC either. It's solidly helpful, but it's also WIFOMy. I guess we're just seeing this theme completely differently, and I don't know what to say to resolve that.

Well, look, Hindu/Flash/Minimum, it was easy to dismiss MoI on D1 when we had no scum flips. I took the same approach that Flash did early on: if we find scum among the three, then we should go for it, but we shouldn't let it influence our decision otherwise. Now it's kind of turned out to be a little more serious. Let's be frank: a lot more serious. You can't just dismiss it so easily. It's the elephant in the room.

...um, I don't get it. I'm the one who's been screaming, "The one-in-three is not a town gambit!" Why do you keep addressing these arguments to me? I'm agreeing with you. Also, for the record, petapan is the "IC", not MoI.

If MoI is scum... then jailkeeping would stop the shot. Odds are that they will not cross-kill. Why would we not play with the odds? I mean, that's your only reason for letting scumMoI get his shot off, right? That he may hit the other scum? If we're 1/1/13 right now, there would be a 1/12 chance that MoI would inadvertently kill the other scum, and an 11/12 chance he'd hit a townie (and potentially another PR).

I'm trying to think if you're clever enough to fake this. There's a flaw in this plan (I mean, aside from the silly "We want MoI to crosskill!" argument). Can you figure out what it is?

[sword_of_omens]

back from V/LA...
gonna catch up and post today...

[Bella]

Bella, can you explain your town reads on Seraphim, sword_of_omens, and AGar?

Seraphim: His analysis of Stag's interactions (or lack thereof) with the 1 in 3 and the UT/Tierce slot committed him too strongly to "Tierce is not a Stag buddy" for scum who knows that Tierce is Stag's scumbuddy, and making that solid a statement only to turn around and vote her later seems really unscummy - if he was open to voting her, I think scum-Seraphim would have been a bit more weasely and not made himself look quite such a hypocrite. In addition, he's presented cases and generally appears to be trying to find scum. Also:

@Seraphim, I think the fully worked out fake claims part of the set-up makes that type of consideration fairly null.

The fake claims are not "full" if I remember correctly.

Nachomamma's plan has merit but I'll leave you guys to debate that because...

Mod: V/LA until Friday

This is a post I think is far more likely to be made by town than scum. Scum will have seen the fakeclaims they are given, and would know that they are full role PMs, as stated in the set-up post, whereas town players would only know this from reading the set-up post fully. I think it is unlikely that scum, having seen the fake claims, would assume that the town would be lead to believe that they weren't full fake claims. I do acknowledge that there's a chance that there's something wrong with him and he's managed to draw a conclusion in the face of evidence to the contrary, but i think it's quite remote.

AGar: He's playing consistently with AGar town that I've played with. He's very firm with his opinions in a way that scum generally aren't 'cause it costs them too much flexibility, his willingness to say "lynch me instead of X" and an attitude of being unconcerned about being lynched at a point where Night have lost more than half their number, he's been willing to challenge people to justify their support of cases he disagrees with and just generally seems to be trying to find scum and kill it.

I do admit the fact that he called out MoI for his douchebaggery gives him bonus points, though.

sword_of_omens: Admittedly, this is the weakest read I'm willing to go out on a limb to state, but honestly, it's a combination of gut and the way he reacted to the Tidal Jim thing.I'm open to having my mind changed,though.

And why don't you have any scumreads outside MoI and Matt?

Because the way I'm reading the game, one of those two is definitely scum by a process of elimination, whereas I'm really struggling to pick up on any outright scummy reads on other people. I like to have a certain level of confidence in reads before I state them and I tend to equivocate on them when I have them, far moreso as town than scum.[/quote]

[Bella]

Ugh, I double posted when fixing tags... Mod, can you delete the first post, please?

Done. -hito

[Shmugen]

I think he's town. Risk/reward analysis has him not gambiting in my mind. I'll go back over him tonight under the assumption he's scum and see if the idea makes sense, but I has my doubts it will.

[Gammagooey]

Gamma, sell me on RedCoyote-town.

the ingredients for RC-town are as follows:
one teaspoon of his attack on Tierce+Shinori right after Shinori softclaimed vengeful looking legitimate
1/4th of a cup of his iso 3 looking town with his response to his supposed slip and his responses to minimum and regfan
add entire box of 'damn his peta read earlier today looked town'.

cook to 400 degrees and sprinkle gut to taste.

[4nxi3ty]

Matt, want to see you explain some townreads.

Quilford, same thing only opposite, scumreads...

unvote

[hitogoroshi]

VC 37 (Session 3, VC 2)

(3)

Bella:

Seraphim, Bella, RedCoyote

(Gammagooey, petapan)

[L-5]
(2)

Quilford:

Hinduragi, AGar

(4nxi3ty)

(2)

MattP:

petapan, Minimum
(1)

AGar:

Quilford

(7)

Not Voting:

Flash, MagnaofIllusion, MattP, sword_of_omens, Shmugen, Gammagooey, 4nxi3ty

(Hinduragi, AGar, Quilford, Minimum)

With 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to secure a lynch.

Automatic Termination of the Third Session

(expired on 2012-08-18 16:00:00)

MagnaOfIllusion is V/LA until August 11th.

[AGar]

Why do I have a wagon on me?

VOTE: AGar

Freakishly in need of death.

You so mad. So so mad.

Also, don't steal my quirky little sayings if you don't know what they mean, scumbag.

[Hinduragi]

I have no meta experience. I've barely even seen her on LoL. What I do have, my strong gut townreads, is more than enough. Thing is, these kind of townreads are what I'm best at in Mafia, even though I'm oftentimes wrong about who scum are in games. That's why I trust myself 100% in this situation and don't have any doubts here.

[MattP]

If I don't post content tomorrow vote me. Hold me to that.

[Quilford]

lmao

try again, AGar is town now, tierce screwed that one up for you

???

Matt, want to see you explain some townreads.

Quilford, same thing only opposite, scumreads...

unvote

When I have time.

Why do I have a wagon on me?

VOTE: AGar

Freakishly in need of death.

You so mad. So so mad.

Also, don't steal my quirky little sayings if you don't know what they mean, scumbag.

I dunno, 'freakishly in need of death' doesn't really seem that hard to decipher the meaning of...

[RedCoyote]

Ah, Minimum, I think I'm prejudicing you based on earlier in the game. I've reread your posts and your context has been duly noted; I retract your name from that group. I don't know what to tell you, Mina. I'm not quite as scrupulous as I used to be. It's been a long time coming. I'm just losing the heart for it, I guess. I still don't know what you're getting at with this Jailkeeper thing. I have no real interest in playing games with you though, so I'll just leave it as a disagreement.

I guess we need to find another bad guy in our ragtag group here. Shmug fits the bill nicely as far as I'm concerned. I don't get the impression he's really gone far out of his way to stick his neck out. A good way at finding a third party role is to find that one guy that has made a million posts and has made sure the lynches have gone through with little resistance. Shmug and Hindu both seem to fit those bills.

[Shmugen]

If I were Commexo, and Commexo were bulletproof, I sure as hell wouldn't have claimed bulletproof.

[Bella]

Well, I for one am convinced of your innocence through this sound and flawless logic.

[petapan]

you never claimed that?