Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)

[Shmugen]

I force you to jail yourself.

[Flash]

I haven't heard a good argument yet for why Magna would lie as scum. Flash's is ALMOST decent, but it's so far off the deep end and ignores a key point. Magna is scum who comes up with a random list of three players as a means of defense against an SK shooting him, as the SK shooting Magna would mean town doesn't lynch in the three ever. Crazy, but sure, okay, except that the second Magna flips and isn't informed, those three are back on the table, in addition to the steaming piles of WIFOM available if his list is chosen at random. He could put one night in there, he could put in two and a town, he could accidentally put Commexo in there, etc.

Did you miss the bit where I said having to explain his entire motivation is a trap? He has more info than we have. Speaking purely in terms of speculation as an example, he could gain some effect from hammering 1/2 players on the list. Normally it would be awkward to force a wagon on someone without being an early vote, but his 1/3 claim makes it less awkward, it also helps explain why he hasn't been pushing them more heavily.

If hitos action resolution method isn't public (and it doesn't appear to be at a glance) I'd be careful about plans that require a jailkeeper to be reflected back on itself. There are multiple ways to resolve a jailkeeper being jailkept, one of which being that the block goes through and the doc doesn't.

[AGar]

KILL. QUILFORD. WITH. FIRE. AND. TAMMY.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.

[petapan]

don't bother with your plan, shmugen. trust me on this.

[Tammy]

KILL. QUILFORD. WITH. FIRE. AND. TAMMY.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.

Hey Agar...why do you have two and only two suspects when there are three scum out there?

[Tammy]

Oh and Shmugen's town to by the way...though that should be pretty obvious to everyone.

[AGar]

KILL. QUILFORD. WITH. FIRE. AND. TAMMY.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.

Hey Agar...why do you have two and only two suspects when there are three scum out there?

Because people are fucking dense right now.

[Tammy]

KILL. QUILFORD. WITH. FIRE. AND. TAMMY.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.

Hey Agar...why do you have two and only two suspects when there are three scum out there?

Because people are fucking dense right now.

I don't follow. People being dense is keeping you from having the appropriate number of suspects?

[AGar]

See, you're dense. It's not that I don't have other suspects.

It's I want you two motherfuckers dead right now and am 99.999% positive a scumflip comes out of the pair of you. We have an opportunity to lynch 2 people today, we take it.

[Tammy]

The only thing you keep mentioning though is the two of us. That doesn't indicate you have other suspects; it indicates you have exactly two.

[petapan]

does it really matter

[Tammy]

Yes, it does. Have you ever noticed that when there is more than one faction, someone who belongs to one faction always tends to be looking for the other team only? So, there are two night left and one commexo. The people who are only searching for night or are only searching for commexo have a good chance of belonging to the opposite faction. I don't necessarily believe this in Agar's case because I'm reading him as town and don't think he fits the profile for commexo, but it still peaks my suspicion when I see people doing it.

[petapan]

the word is "pique", just fyi

in this game i feel like it's inherently hard to get a read on who is commexo, because they can scumhunt as legitimately as a townie so the only real tell you could get from one of them is a response to pressure and it's hard to pressure people who probably aren't night aligned and etc etc - i don't think many people have Commexo reads right now and they obviously can't all be commexo aligned it's just harder to guess at

regardless this day does not need to be this complicated.

[Tammy]

Quilford - Has a good chance to be either night or commexo. I know that Magna thinks it's unlikely due to wagon analysis, but I don't pay attention to something like that and think that scum teams can behave in erratic ways that will throw people off. They don't always meet expectations for how they will act concerning wagons. The only thing that makes me hesitate on Quilford being night is it seems like he went into bus mode immediately upon replacing in if that's the case. He immediately went after Shinori and Staeg, but he seemed to avoid voting for Tierce. I don't know what to make of that. He had a strange reaction to minimum talking about commexo's likelihood of killing OaFE though as well. He's gone after Agar, which Tierce did as well, which makes me especially suspicious of Quilford. However, his iso's not that long and there's really nothing particularly damning in it. However, by his activity and the positions he's taken he fits the profile of either scum faction.

Red Coyote - Doubt very seriously he's night based on Post 188 as I don't seem him telling his partner that he's a great admirer of his. Actually, his whole iso reads town to me; I don't know why MoI reads him as scum. If he is scum, he's commexo, but I think that's a very slight chance.

Again, Agar - is most likely not night due to Tierce's push on him and Shinori went after him as well. He's raising small alarm bells with his consistent two suspects only which could be indicative of commexo; however, he doesn't actually fit the profile of a serial killer, so I don't think he's commexo either.

I have a headache, I'll finish up my reads tomorrow.

[Tammy]

welp spelling is key

[Hinduragi]

V/LA until Friday.

[Bella]

At this point, with only two scum left, plus one third party, I don't see why Town MoI would allow the issue of the 1 in 3 to fester by refusing to fully claim. It's something that's been hanging over the game since he claimed it early on day one. It's still an issue, to the point that we had a lull in the game because people were waiting for MoI to come back and cofirm yet again that it's not a gambit. Enough people aren't convinced by it that without a full claim, the information he's claimed to provide is essentially worthless. He's got claims out of all three of us. Time for him to join us so we can deal with this distraction once and for all.

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[MagnaofIllusion]

Are you dense? Like, seriously... ARE YOU DENSE?

Actually no … I’m actively losing weight so if anything I might be becoming less dense ..

In all seriousness – if you have something to actually claim do so instead of playing the coy game. Day is in a damn good spot right now and we don’t need pussy-footing if you have Night results that make this a no-brainer. If you don’t link me to the case you made explaining things. If you don’t have that either man up and make one or stop yelling.

--

I don't see why Town MoI would allow the issue of the 1 in 3 to fester by refusing to fully claim. It's something that's been hanging over the game since he claimed it early on day one.

I’ve fully claimed

EVERY FUCKING ELEMENT

of the 1in3 already. It happened on Day 1. Stop pretending your vote isn’t anything more than butthurt.

--

Not following your point on what I guess is you implying hypocrisy on my pert. Sera not being able to give an answer or two for why he's voting me and saying hopefully tomorrow is a bit different than me saying I will give more reads tomorrow. It was 5am my time and going through Isos and looking at interactns takes time.

Um Tammy how do you know that Seraphim was not burdened by similar time constraints? Without that knowledge I see little difference in your replies. Your “it implies he has no reasons” in Post 1338 is faulty logic.

The only thing you keep mentioning though is the two of us. That doesn't indicate you have other suspects; it indicates you have exactly two.

No, it doesn’t. Selecting two people to possibly die via mechanic hardly says “I only have two suspects”.

--

Magna: when looking at game balance, don't forget how super gross Befouler is.

I’m not looking at game-balance as a whole. I’m looking specifically at the Sacrificial Dayvig for Night. That is a role that exists, IMO, to circumvent Night protections so that scum can kill off a dangerous player / role.

The IC certainly qualifies as such. I’m asking Flash to use his claimed Set-up spec skills in assessing what level of Town ‘protection’ ability is warranted by giving scum that suiciding Dayvig.

--

MOI , would you be willing to hammer Bella?

Currently? No. Peta is being a crybaby diva and despite everyone going “Oh, it’s a no-brainer” like good little sheep there are some strong inconsistencies in Peta’s early play I want put to rest in my brain. My review of dead Night players is split on whether Matt or Bella is more likely scum. Although Tammy’s posting as of late has me leaning towards her slot.

--

Did you miss the bit where I said having to explain his entire motivation is a trap? He has more info than we have. Speaking purely in terms of speculation as an example, he could gain some effect from hammering 1/2 players on the list. Normally it would be awkward to force a wagon on someone without being an early vote, but his 1/3 claim makes it less awkward, it also helps explain why he hasn't been pushing them more heavily.

Yawn. This is just a dodge. You can’t explain any scum-motivation. Your “he gets benefits from hammering” makes no sense given multiples of them flipping Town means I’m lynched.

[4nxi3ty]

moi is town
more self conscious with insults when scum

if people think the 1in3 is false
quilford correct lynch by far

mattp vt claim to stop lynch get sent
over the top awkward hammer on tierce

have scumpoints for chesskid mattp tammy
see no reason for any townread on slot

[petapan]

moi is town
more self conscious with insults when scum

if people think the 1in3 is false
quilford correct lynch by far

i swear to god

how can you still sit there and claim that someone lying as town is the most likely possibility in this scenario

i feel like i'm taking crazy pills

[4nxi3ty]

never claimed what was most likely
just possible

moi is town prob telling truth
hence push on tammy

regardless of what truth is
tammy or quilford are good lynches

[MagnaofIllusion]

i feel like i'm taking crazy pills

Well given you thought Tierce was Day that isn't out of the question ...

Still waiting on your explanation as to how your early play supports your claim ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why RedCoyote looks like Night

…

1.

Voting and interaction pattern re: Shin

He hops on the early Shin wagon at Post 139. The reason he gives is the ‘Shin defended Seraphim’ explanation that was floated. This puts him fourth on the wagon.

His next Post 188 shows him responding to Shin saying that Shin’s reaction to pressure was scummy.

Yet in the following Post 268 RC jumps off the wagon to attack Once for a ‘claim he can’t trust’ and that

There's something about putting yourself up to be lynched the way he did in Post 80 that just doesn't sit right with me. I can't emphasize enough how much I think it's possibly the worst single post of the entire thread so far

If that was the case (80 being the worst post of the game) why didn’t he comment on it at all until well after the fact? He chose to comment on Post 70 back at 139. This looks to me like very much overjustification to get off his partner. He says nothing about Shin’s play looking better. In context this is near the height of the Shin early wagon (Shin was at 7 votes) when RedCoyote jumps off.

After this he never returns to any significant pressure or questioning of Shin until after Shin self-destructs on Fate / Reg. Reads to me as a partner wanting to put down a vote early on a weak partner, seeing the wagon significantly grow, and getting off before it gets out of hand and Shin is forced to self-destruct Day 1 leaving plenty of links.

2.

Possible slip at Post 188.

This got shunted to the side earlier as “RC always plays this way” a little too easily for my tastes. None of the flipped scum (via ISO review) even comment on it CHECK. For those who have forgotten what I’m talking about RC said this to Fate on Day 1 –

You realize this means we may be on the same team for once in God only knows how long.

Again taken as a singular event it’s far from damning but the ease at which it was brushed aside and never addressed again has the feel of something scum want left alone.

3

. Treatment of Staeg wagon

I may have been premature to judge 4nx. He seems to have got Staeg over a barrel with regard to flipping his vote to UT.

You know, Staeg never even mentioned UT prior to that vote switch. I don't follow that reasoning. Let's not make this more complicated than it is... either something changed his mind about his OAFE vote, or something changed his mind about UT that suddenly shot him to number one.

In either case, it's an abrupt switch that triggered Fate/Reg to gauge his fortitude. He seems cool enough though, Fate. I don't like his vote switch, but is there something that's sticking out to you two with regard to his extended reaction?

This reaction doesn’t read as Day to me. First he agrees that his earlier Anxiety read may be wrong because “Anxiety has Staeg over a barrel regarding switching to UT”. Then he immediately offers Staeg a way out “maybe something changed his mind”, advocates to Fate that Staeg isn’t likely scum for his reaction and subsequently votes Petapan. Basically he’s fence-sitting (I understand why you suspect him but he’s not Night).

4.

Treatment of Tierce wagon

Red hops on at Post 891. He does a quick hop off and on (Post 910 and Post 914. What sticks out at me is how he’s laying the groundwork for people to be linked to Tierce before her flip. Much like my assessment of Tierce’s reaction to Shin’s bomb tactic he’s already looking to pin those not supporting the wagon as scum.

Matt, what's the hold up?

– Questioning why Matt isn’t voting Tierce.

peta's not-so-subtle calls to slow down this wagon stick out like a sore thumb.

– pretty obvious the angle here.

Post 1010 is directly devoted to showing peta as faking his reactions to the Tierce wagon.

He then follows through today with an opening vote on Peta.

[RedCoyote]

@RedCoyote

– Why did your posts on Post 1142 posit that Jailkeeping me would stop the scum Nightkill when there are 2 Night left?

Hmmm... I was under the impression there were 4 Night-aligned for some reason. I see that's not the case. So I withdraw that. This also explains a little bit more why I wasn't understanding Minimum's argument.

This actually changes things quite a bit, now I'm not so sure we

should

continue to focus on the 1-of-3. It gives a lot more credit to the arguments we've heard from Flash.

Still, the possibility that the 1-of-3 is a Commexo is something golden that's tough to ignore.

Eh, in either case, I'm not nearly as gungho as I was earlier.

Unvote

;

vote: Seraphim

I don't think this Tammy crusade has any real underlying meaning. I think his going from chess is scum, to Matt is town, to sending Matt to Marapoza Street, to wanting to lynch Bella, to wanting to lynch Tammy. I don't know what's going on in his head.

[RedCoyote]

Lol, we're still talking about the slip! Oh, dear. MoI, you can't read me at all, bud.