Open 441 - Chosen Mafia (OVER)

[Greywing]

Thank you for agreeing with me on my first point. Hopefully we can see eye-to-eye in a moment.

While your impulsive and gut-driven playstyle might work a few times, it isn't one of the best ways to play this game. Mafia involves a deeper level of critical thought and concentration than pushing on early gut reads, especially when you play the game on a forum. I urge you to let the game flow its course for a while and take a second look, later -- that's what I'm about to do. I think you'll find that your game will improve exponentially if you do this.

If you don't improve your so-far-slipshod play by tomorrow night, I will lead a lynch on you. That doesn't sound too unreasonable, does it?

So a policy lynch in a game this size? That sounds like a good idea to you?

[Om of the Nom]

Tbh, I wouldn't have thought you were as scummy if you had suggested a policy lynch on me if I was being useless in this game, but right now I'm arguably generating the most discussion (or at least putting out the most content) right now, so policy lynching me is really stupid, unless you can come up with a convincing case.

[Whiskers]

(or at least putting out the most content)

OH

YEAH!?

Whiskers, I find it odd that you reply to Eidolon by saying that I am scum but you respond to her post that she can read me by saying that you won't buy it if she says that I am town. Why so selective?

Selective how? I can answer the question I think you're asking, but why do you choose the word "selective"? What am I selecting?

[Om of the Nom]

Bitch please, I have more than double the posts you have :P

[rapidcanyon]

Selective how? I can answer the question I think you're asking, but why do you choose the word "selective"? What am I selecting?

You say that you won't go along with her if she says I am town. This implies that you might go along with her if she says I am scum (unless I am misreading). Why only selectively take her word for it that I am scum but not that I am town. It makes more sense to either listen to her or not regardless of what she says as opposed to only listening to her if she says I am scum and not if she says I am town.

[Whiskers]

I actually had thought about that before posting.
Basically the rationale is that the only time she'll report a reading-you-like-a-book Scumtell on you is when she's town and you're scum. As scum/scum, she'll townread you to protect you as a scumbuddy. As scum/town, she'll townread you to get towncred. As town/town, she'll townread you, and as town/scum, as I've already said, she'll say you're playing to your scum meta.

There are several dishonest reasons for her to meta-townread you, and only one particularly likely reason for her to meta-scumread you.

Maybe more importantly, announcing a meta-townread on you is going to be in an effort to derail a lynch (easy), whereas announcing a meta-scumread on you is going to be in order to build a lynch (hard). I will expect a town-case on you from her, not just a town-read, to move my vote from you on the occasion that I'm voting you in a large wagon. However, if she announces a scum-read on you ("something is out of the ordinary"), I might investigate further.

Understand?

[rapidcanyon]

Whiskers, except you are forgetting that if she is scum and wants to lead a mislynch on me, she will say that I am scum.

Also, if she is town and mistakes me for scum (she has done this before when I played with her, no one is infallible), it will be easy for scum to bandwagon on her "scum-read" on me and set up a double mislynch by letting her take heat the next day phase.

Essentially, your arguments rests on two assumptions:

1) Eidolon's read on me is invariably correct.

2) She will not attempt to mislynch me if she is scum and I, town.

Neither of those assumptions are valid.

[Whiskers]

Whiskers, except you are forgetting that if she is scum and wants to lead a mislynch on me, she will say that I am scum.

Also, if she is town and mistakes me for scum (she has done this before when I played with her, no one is infallible), it will be easy for scum to bandwagon on her "scum-read" on me and set up a double mislynch by letting her take heat the next day phase.

Essentially, your arguments rests on two assumptions:

1) Eidolon's read on me is invariably correct.

2) She will not attempt to mislynch me if she is scum and I, town.

Neither of those assumptions are valid.

Not exactly.
If she tries to lead a mislynch on you, she will need more than "I have a meta-read that he's scum." Even if that did pass, after you flipped town, if that was all she had against you, she'd be pretty quickly lynched too. If she meta-reads you as scum, town will look at you and say, "hey, could this guy be scum?" and either say, "hey, yeah!" and then it's not just meta, or "huh, no." and then there's nothing to worry about.

I guess it's the same answer for the other one too. Early game, even if both scum and Eidolon vote for you, there will need to be more support to actually lynch you. Late game, when scum can actually mislynch with one town vote, townEidolon will (hopefully) be cautious and thoughtful enough to not vote for you based solely on meta.

[rapidcanyon]

That is a fairly well-thought out explanation.

Unvote

I'd like to see more activity from the inactive players.

Vote Crypto

[Whiskers]

Interestingly enough,

Vote: realgodfather

.

[Mortontfrh]

Vote Count 1.03

With 9 players alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Realgodfather (

3

): Greywing, Om of the Nom, Whiskers
Rapidcanyon (2): Eidolon
Whiskers (1): Paschendale
Crypto (1): Rapidcanyon

Not Voting: crypto, McStab, Realgodfather

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-09-01 17:14:00)

[Eidolon]

right now rc makes sense as town. His behavior fits of someone who isn't familiar with the style of the site. The game is very different at our site. Particularly with his last response to me, because the RVS stage there is more or less where you vote with wanting a claim, usually from a newb, rather than vote for a reaction.

unvote

I'm wondering why the votes on rgf.

I'd like to ask him why he holded off voting RC until he got called out?

I also have a slight suspicion of Pasch. So for right now

Vote Pasch

Pasch, was your reason on voting whiskers serious or a RV?

[Paschendale]

Mostly RV. Whiskers was clearly not making a real effort to chain any lynches. It was the scummiest thing I'd seen at the time... but it was only post 13. Curious as to how this is suspicious. But reasonable if the fact that I haven't posted since then is your motivation. I had family visiting this weekend, and was still a bit sick, so I haven't been around as much as I thought I would. Amending that now.

Time for a reads list! I'm trying to avoid any null reads. I don't think they help. Unless someone is truly 50/50, then they're not null. There's always a lean.

Rapidcanyon: On one hand, maybe he's used to a power heavy game, where there's minimal deduction involved, but some of his early posts seemed to attempt to discredit the deductive process. This then contradicts his 56, where he seems to have a fine grasp of the process. Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too. (Slightly scum)

RGF: Seems to be tunneling a little, but then I agree with his criticism on Om. Gut alone is not how this game is done. But I don't think Om is actually doing that, based on our previous encounter. His post 40 gives me pause, though. The point of RVS is not to shove it aside and ignore it. The point is that it is NOT truly random. Scum have an agenda, even on their first post. There's always something to learn. (Kinda scummy)

Greywing: Not a lot to say, but there's real criticism in his two later posts. (Leaning town)

Om: Om is silly. Probably the only time I've ever seen someone self vote and not find it worth pursuing. I don't like the gut stuff, but at least he's honest about it. I think his criticisms of RGF are genuine. (Leaning town)

Whiskers: Good deconstruction of Eidolon. Def like to know the reasoning behind the vote on RGF. Also obviously lying about the roleclaim, since there are no vigs in this setup. (Slightly town)

Eidolon: Can't really take issue with anything she's said. I caution too much against taking Rapidcanyon at face value. (Townish)

Crypto: Need to show up and post.

McStab: Normally very talkative, yet not posting here. (Scum!)

Unvote
Vote: Realgodfather

[rapidcanyon]

Paschendale, how did any of my early posts attempt to discredit the deductive process? It was more of me trying to get used to the deductive process which I am unfamiliar with as opposed to discrediting it. I first asked the reasons for voting for any particular player, and wondered if the mafia started off random voting a chosen townie since they have to get that player lynched. I also asked for Eidolon's input since I played many games with her before and she proved herself to be a very sharp player. I am glad you think I have a very fine grasp of the deductive process. There is surefire distinction between the "deductive process" and claim analysis. The way I play often involves a combination of both.

I am a little wary of how quickly there were 4 votes on RGF putting him at L-1 and scum can hammer anytime. If he was chosen by the scum as a chosen townie, it might be well worth it for them as they absolutely cannot win without lynching a chosen townie.

Eidolon votes you but you offer no response or ask her why she did so. You also don't defend yourself but merely say that you can't take issue with anything she said. Instead of asking her what the reason for suspicion on you was, you merely try to discredit her read on me.

Unvote Vote Pasch

Unofficial Vote Count

With 9 players alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Realgodfather (4/5): Greywing, Om of the Nom, Whiskers, Paschendale
Pashendale (2/5): Eidolon, Rapidcanyon

[rapidcanyon]

Edit - There is

no

surefire difference - typo in my last post.

[rapidcanyon]

Actually, Pasch did respond to Eidolon in his post. I missed that.

Unvote Vote Crypto

.

[rapidcanyon]

I still want an explanation from Pasch to my question on my initial posts.

Also, no one hammer RealGF. He is a noob who only has 9 posts so far - a perfect target for the more experienced players to mislynch - another reason for my slight suspicion on Pasch - going after the noobs while defending the more competent players who are less likely to be mislynched.

[rapidcanyon]

After reading through again and taking special consideration to Pasch's post, I feel certain that Pasch is mafia and am down for lynching Pasch.

Case for lynching Pasch

1) His "reads" are all fluff

Most of his reads say "townish" or "leaning town" to get as many people on his side as possible. Let's look at his analysis on Greywing "Not a lot to say, but there's real criticism in his two later posts." - So basically no read. Just fluff.

His read on Eidolon mirrors that "Can't really take issue with anything she's said. I caution too much against taking Rapidcanyon at face value."

So, here Pasch buddies up to Eidolon while at the same time trying to discredit her read on me.

So, this gives us the question - why did Pasch make a long post full of "reads" when he had absolutely nothing to contribute and had no reads at all?

He says that some of my early posts attempt to discredit the deductive process. That makes no sense. Anytime a newcomer plays in an environment that is new to them, they would try to fit into that environment as opposed to discrediting the status quo. This is exactly what my early posts were doing. I was asking questions and reasoning behind why people are voting for others so I can understand it better. This was explained to me by Whiskers and Eidolon.

2) Fabricating scumtells

Pasch is trying to spin perfectly innocent posts into scumtells. He also says about me "Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too." However, I haven't relied on WIFOM at all. I merely pointed out that we will get into an endless WIFOM cycle if we assume that mafia will act town so those acting town must be mafia. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that those playing pro-town are actually town. Townies are not going to play pro-mafia. The fact that Pasch pretends to not understand my argument and simply throws a blanket label "WIFOM" on it to discredit it is another reason why I believe he is scum.

3) Zoning in on players who others found suspicious

Despite the fact that Pasch supposedly suspects McStab, he never votes for him but rather votes for realGF putting him at L-1. Three other players had already voted realGF and Pasch votes for him with minimal reasoning hoping for an eventual lynch. He also FOSses me hoping to keep the attention on me and RealGF while he coasts through the game.

4) Captain Obvious

Whiskers is lying about the vig claim. Obviously. He was joking. There aren't going to be vigs in an open game. I didn't even think twice about it but Pasch decides to point out that whiskers was lying as if that makes Whiskers more scummy. Also, he had no read on whiskers so obviously this is a fluff statement as well.

5) Following the town aka bandwagoning

This is Pasch's single absolute biggest scumtell. He barely posted in the beginning making a "random" vote on whiskers but AFTER the others narrowed down to RealGF as the most suspicious with one person also FOSsing me, Pasch makes a long fluff post saying how they are all town, that I am scum, and voting RealGF. Pasch did not come to this conclusion on his own but rather waited and then voted the way the others have been voting.

Conclusion

Mafia try to tunnel in on townies that other townies suspect rather than post genuine analysis. They also make a posts that contain no substance. Pasch is guilty of both of these things. Another classic tell is that Pasch is fabricating scumtells by misrepresenting my early posts and insists that Eidolon's town read on me shouldn't be taken at "face-value." He is also buddying and bandwagoning and lurked until the others reached a decision on RealGF.

Pasch is our best candidate for a lynch today. I am confident enough that I am willing to take the heat if he flips town.

Unvote Vote Paschendale

[McStab]

Wow, RGF is hilariously misinformed on both how I play (and how successful I am at it) and also how mafia is actually played.
My earlygame gut reads are superspecial awesome and I find that they almost always end up flipping scum. My gut is the best thing ever, and I am basically always correct on the last scum in an LYLO if I use it. My logic is nowhere near as good as my gut, and it frequently causes me to get on the wrong track and and up on a mislynch.
So frankly, if you wanna keep telling me to start sucking more in this game instead of playing to my best abilities, feel free to do so, I won't change just because you would lynch me for it. Frankly, that's a bullshit reason to lynch anyway.

Don't worry Rapid, I wasn't expecting you to defend anyway.

The last game you were in with me you buddied a scum, got yourself day-killed, mislynched a townie and outed another player as just a VT, because you hadn't used critical thinking and relied on your gut. Another one I was in you essentially used your gut to get half the confirmed townreads quicklynched. Please, refrain from giving us your "superspecial awesome" gut reads.

[rapidcanyon]

McStab, what is your read on Pasch?

[McStab]

After reading through again and taking special consideration to Pasch's post, I feel certain that Pasch is mafia and am down for lynching Pasch.

Case for lynching Pasch

1) His "reads" are all fluff

Most of his reads say "townish" or "leaning town" to get as many people on his side as possible. Let's look at his analysis on Greywing "Not a lot to say, but there's real criticism in his two later posts." - So basically no read. Just fluff.

His read on Eidolon mirrors that "Can't really take issue with anything she's said. I caution too much against taking Rapidcanyon at face value."

So, here Pasch buddies up to Eidolon while at the same time trying to discredit her read on me.

So, this gives us the question - why did Pasch make a long post full of "reads" when he had absolutely nothing to contribute and had no reads at all?

He says that some of my early posts attempt to discredit the deductive process. That makes no sense. Anytime a newcomer plays in an environment that is new to them, they would try to fit into that environment as opposed to discrediting the status quo. This is exactly what my early posts were doing. I was asking questions and reasoning behind why people are voting for others so I can understand it better. This was explained to me by Whiskers and Eidolon.

2) Fabricating scumtells

Pasch is trying to spin perfectly innocent posts into scumtells. He also says about me "Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too." However, I haven't relied on WIFOM at all. I merely pointed out that we will get into an endless WIFOM cycle if we assume that mafia will act town so those acting town must be mafia. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that those playing pro-town are actually town. Townies are not going to play pro-mafia. The fact that Pasch pretends to not understand my argument and simply throws a blanket label "WIFOM" on it to discredit it is another reason why I believe he is scum.

3) Zoning in on players who others found suspicious

Despite the fact that Pasch supposedly suspects McStab, he never votes for him but rather votes for realGF putting him at L-1. Three other players had already voted realGF and Pasch votes for him with minimal reasoning hoping for an eventual lynch. He also FOSses me hoping to keep the attention on me and RealGF while he coasts through the game.

4) Captain Obvious

Whiskers is lying about the vig claim. Obviously. He was joking. There aren't going to be vigs in an open game. I didn't even think twice about it but Pasch decides to point out that whiskers was lying as if that makes Whiskers more scummy. Also, he had no read on whiskers so obviously this is a fluff statement as well.

5) Following the town aka bandwagoning

This is Pasch's single absolute biggest scumtell. He barely posted in the beginning making a "random" vote on whiskers but AFTER the others narrowed down to RealGF as the most suspicious with one person also FOSsing me, Pasch makes a long fluff post saying how they are all town, that I am scum, and voting RealGF. Pasch did not come to this conclusion on his own but rather waited and then voted the way the others have been voting.

Conclusion

Mafia try to tunnel in on townies that other townies suspect rather than post genuine analysis. They also make a posts that contain no substance. Pasch is guilty of both of these things. Another classic tell is that Pasch is fabricating scumtells by misrepresenting my early posts and insists that Eidolon's town read on me shouldn't be taken at "face-value." He is also buddying and bandwagoning and lurked until the others reached a decision on RealGF.

Pasch is our best candidate for a lynch today. I am confident enough that I am willing to take the heat if he flips town.

Unvote Vote Paschendale

I like this guy ^

Vote: Passchendale

in a blatant sheeping of rapidcanyon.


For the rest of my reads, I have a bad gut feeling of Om, bad gut feeling of Whiskers, good gut feeling on rapidcanyon and realgodfather, and null on the others. More in-depth analysis to come in awhile.

[Eidolon]

I'm liking the wagon on pasch. I'd also point out that he popped in to vote on the most obvious (fabricated) scum-tell, meaning it was the easy vote, and then disappeared until i put my vote up for him. his response post seemed over-justified.

I also want to ask om and whiskers of their case on rgf.

Om, in post 51 you sheep greywing's analysis of rgf's post by saying it is a policy lynch. why do you assume that? Could rgf not have been implying that your play was scummy?

[Whiskers]

After reading through again and taking special consideration to Pasch's post, I feel certain that Pasch is mafia and am down for lynching Pasch.

Case for lynching Pasch

Wait, isn't it like, page 3?

1) His "reads" are all fluff

Most of his reads say "townish" or "leaning town" to get as many people on his side as possible.

Hang on a minute-- The game has seven townies and two mafioso, right? So, it follows that most of his reads will be "leaning" town. I'm not really displeased that he doesn't want to write nullreads, because that's where scum hide their scumbuddies (usually a little later in the game though).
I will say that I think it's a little early to have a reads list because there's only

three pages

of posts, and iirc we have a player who hasn't even posted yet. The reads in his list aren't fluff, exactly, because they give valid, imo, reads based on what's available. But making a reads-list at this point in the game? Yeah, that's fluffy. It's not really helpful, just wants to look like content.

2) Fabricating scumtells

Pasch is trying to spin perfectly innocent posts into scumtells. He also says about me "Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too." However, I haven't relied on WIFOM at all. I merely pointed out that we will get into an endless WIFOM cycle if we assume that mafia will act town so those acting town must be mafia. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that those playing pro-town are actually town. Townies are not going to play pro-mafia. The fact that Pasch pretends to not understand my argument and simply throws a blanket label "WIFOM" on it to discredit it is another reason why I believe he is scum.

40, realgodfather says, "You're trying to genereate discussion during RVS, which looks townie. Since scum wants to look townie, you must be scum."
44, rapidcanyon says, "Bullshit. That's wifom."
62, Paschendale gives his reads and in his listing on RapidC, says, "relying on wifom as an excuse to difuse things is a bit weak too."
Now, I don't know if he was just mentioning it, but since he made it part of his read on Rapid, I'm going to guess he was accusing RC of crying wifom to difuse things. That's a huge misrep. I'm going to go ahead and say that, if Pasch flips scum, Rapid is one of our chosen townies.

By the end of 3, I'm starting to see, though. And by the end of 4, I'm kind of convinced...

Pasch is our best candidate for a lynch today. I am confident enough that I am willing to take the heat if he flips town.

Yeah. At least-- so far. Thing is, there won't really be any heat if he flips town-- he played scummily, you made a good case, and I don't think you'll have to take any heat for it except that you were wrong.
Might be a little different if he flips chosen, but I don't think it'll even be that big a deal.
Anyway,

vote: Paschendale.

The last game you were in with me you buddied a scum, got yourself day-killed, mislynched a townie and outed another player as just a VT, because you hadn't used critical thinking and relied on your gut. Another one I was in you essentially used your gut to get half the confirmed townreads quicklynched. Please, refrain from giving us your "superspecial awesome" gut reads.

I was planning on mentioning something like this. Om, the fact that you DON'T have a conftown gut read on me is a good thing-- it means I'm probably town.

With Eilodon having the first vote, rapidcanyon the second, McStab the third, and myself the fourth, Pasch is now at L-1.

[Eidolon]

Thank you for agreeing with me on my first point. Hopefully we can see eye-to-eye in a moment.

While your impulsive and gut-driven playstyle might work a few times, it isn't one of the best ways to play this game. Mafia involves a deeper level of critical thought and concentration than pushing on early gut reads, especially when you play the game on a forum. I urge you to let the game flow its course for a while and take a second look, later -- that's what I'm about to do. I think you'll find that your game will improve exponentially if you do this.

If you don't improve your so-far-slipshod play by tomorrow night, I will lead a lynch on you. That doesn't sound too unreasonable, does it?

So a policy lynch in a game this size? That sounds like a good idea to you?

why is this your only post? you have no opinions on what's happened so far besides this?

[Eidolon]

Agh, nm, you did make a couple posts on page 1, but they aren't really saying much.