In post 36, rapidcanyon wrote:Real GF, why do you think I am mafia?
Also, Eidolon, I already claimed. Why are still voting for me?
^^Peculiar play, but I'll grant that it's someone who's new to the site. Still, weird weird reaction to pressure.
In post 48, rapidcanyon wrote:Om of the Nom, if you don't provide reasoning why I am mafia and simply say that it is your "gut," all I can tell you is that your wrong about me because I am town.
Whiskers, I find it odd that you reply to Eidolon by saying that I am scum but you respond to her post that she can read me by saying that you won't buy it if she says that I am town. Why so selective?
Vote: Whiskers
^^^Early signs of possible motive to kill Om? I normally don't put much weight on mafia NKs being something you can read into, but Om just DOESN'T make sense to kill. He's decent, but not amazing, he was an easy target for a mislynch because of his bad hammer yesterday, etc. Om was one of the few yesterday who seemed to persist in suspecting rapidcanyon though. Also, I don't like the wording "Why so selective?", as it implies to me he disproves of the selection, not the actual behaviour or possible motives. Not exactly a slam dunk, but it still fits the bill of somewhat scummy behaviour.
Good followup excuse after, though, as to why he used selective. I approve, point regarding selective retracted. Still possible motive to kill Om.
In post 58, rapidcanyon wrote:That is a fairly well-thought out explanation.
Unvote
I'd like to see more activity from the inactive players.
Vote Crypto
After essentially destroying Whiskers' argument, a very quick retraction and an attack on the only player who is unable to respond. I see this as scummy. Targeting lurkers is easy prey, and that early into the game it strikes me as trying to find something to say without risk of reprisal or suspicion.
Alright, here comes the BIG case:
In post 67, rapidcanyon wrote:After reading through again and taking special consideration to Pasch's post, I feel certain that Pasch is mafia and am down for lynching Pasch.
Case for lynching Pasch
1) His "reads" are all fluff
Most of his reads say "townish" or "leaning town" to get as many people on his side as possible. Let's look at his analysis on Greywing "Not a lot to say, but there's real criticism in his two later posts." - So basically no read. Just fluff.
His read on Eidolon mirrors that "Can't really take issue with anything she's said. I caution too much against taking Rapidcanyon at face value."
So, here Pasch buddies up to Eidolon while at the same time trying to discredit her read on me.
So, this gives us the question - why did Pasch make a long post full of "reads" when he had absolutely nothing to contribute and had no reads at all?
He says that some of my early posts attempt to discredit the deductive process. That makes no sense. Anytime a newcomer plays in an environment that is new to them, they would try to fit into that environment as opposed to discrediting the status quo. This is exactly what my early posts were doing. I was asking questions and reasoning behind why people are voting for others so I can understand it better. This was explained to me by Whiskers and Eidolon.
2) Fabricating scumtells
Pasch is trying to spin perfectly innocent posts into scumtells. He also says about me "Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too." However, I haven't relied on WIFOM at all. I merely pointed out that we will get into an endless WIFOM cycle if we assume that mafia will act town so those acting town must be mafia. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that those playing pro-town are actually town. Townies are not going to play pro-mafia. The fact that Pasch pretends to not understand my argument and simply throws a blanket label "WIFOM" on it to discredit it is another reason why I believe he is scum.
3) Zoning in on players who others found suspicious
Despite the fact that Pasch supposedly suspects McStab, he never votes for him but rather votes for realGF putting him at L-1. Three other players had already voted realGF and Pasch votes for him with minimal reasoning hoping for an eventual lynch. He also FOSses me hoping to keep the attention on me and RealGF while he coasts through the game.
4) Captain Obvious
Whiskers is lying about the vig claim. Obviously. He was joking. There aren't going to be vigs in an open game. I didn't even think twice about it but Pasch decides to point out that whiskers was lying as if that makes Whiskers more scummy. Also, he had no read on whiskers so obviously this is a fluff statement as well.
5) Following the town aka bandwagoning
This is Pasch's single absolute biggest scumtell. He barely posted in the beginning making a "random" vote on whiskers but AFTER the others narrowed down to RealGF as the most suspicious with one person also FOSsing me, Pasch makes a long fluff post saying how they are all town, that I am scum, and voting RealGF. Pasch did not come to this conclusion on his own but rather waited and then voted the way the others have been voting.
Conclusion
Mafia try to tunnel in on townies that other townies suspect rather than post genuine analysis. They also make a posts that contain no substance. Pasch is guilty of both of these things. Another classic tell is that Pasch is fabricating scumtells by misrepresenting my early posts and insists that Eidolon's town read on me shouldn't be taken at "face-value." He is also buddying and bandwagoning and lurked until the others reached a decision on RealGF.
Pasch is our best candidate for a lynch today. I am confident enough that I am willing to take the heat if he flips town.
Unvote Vote Paschendale
Argument number one:
Basically, Paschendale posted fluff reads. I don't think this is all that relevant. I hadn't posted much either, and yet I wasn't the subject of rapid's attacks. Why? Because I hadn't attacked him, like Pasch had. This kind of argument is weak at best, particularly so early in the game.
Argument number two: Pasch wasn't fabricating scumtells. Sure, there's some WIFOM, but making a logical mistake and trying to misconstrue something are very different things. For example, this argument is misconstruing Paschendale as scum.
Argument number three:
Could be pressure, could be that he legitimately thought RealGF was scummy. Either way, we know now that Pasch is town, and this argument isn't terribly convincing. Still, it's hard to argue with anything here. It passes.
Argument number four:
As obvious as the flaw in Pasch's argument was about Whiskers, it's just as obvious that Pasch couldn't seriously get someone lynched on that lie. I would think scum could come up with a more convincing argument than that.
Argument number five:
So did I. Am I scum? Sheeping is sheeping. Sheeping is anti-town, sure, I'll give you that. But anti-town =/= scum. You can also see the rays of truth behind rapid's attacks coming out in both the title "Following the town" (how are you so convinced the bandwagon on RGF is town-driven, Rapid?) and the fact that what really caused this argument against Pasch is that he pressured rapidcanyon as scum.
Now here's my conclusion:
Rapidcanyon reacted very weirdly to pressure at the start, taking non-serious RVS reasons extremely seriously (but only the ones on himself). He had a motive to kill Om (based on Om's interactions throughout the day against him) and he was the ONE person in the whole game who was unable to attack Om. Why? Because he would be guilty of OMGUS and he cameup with all the reasons to vote Paschendale. Since he came up with all the reasons, what justifies going after someone else on the wagon?
I wouldn't be surprised if RGF is the other scum, given the defense put up by rapid of him, but that's mere conjecture at this point.
Vote: Rapidcanyon
Thoughts on Whiskers and Eidolon will come later.
