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Post Post #1875 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:22 am

Post by Lastsurvivor »

In post 1867, Oversoul wrote:It was more a rhetorical question. LS jumping all over that is odd.


Meh. I mixed up his play with Paid Pyro's.

@Sword: I believe Seanald only had two votes when you voted Amrun, but fair enough.

@Mod:
I'm fairly certain Arugula has siteflaked. He hasn't posted anywhere since the 21st...
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Post Post #1876 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 6:22 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

going to be in and out this weekend, will catch up on monday or tuesday.
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Post Post #1877 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:23 am

Post by Salamence20 »

Requesting replacement, sorry
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Post Post #1878 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:55 pm

Post by Oversoul »

My head is very confused.
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Post Post #1879 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 5:54 pm

Post by Jal »

All right. Let's try and do this.

CKD is definitely town. I don't know how there's still doubt about this, and now especially with that claim. Oversoul's new slot is town too. I don't see why the mod would give him a different alignment (and the conflict his reads would have, oh brother), and this slot has mostly been town anyway.

I tried looking up MSH's claim. Would it be considered more of a flavor cop sort of dealio? I believe it though, and the wiki seems to indicate it's a mostly pro-town role. Unfortunately, I don't see what we can do with it for the time being. I'm leaning more town than scum with Michel, but even if he is scum, it may lead to him outing a scum buddy, or if someone flips with different initials than given anyway.

I guess this means Seanald actually is town, unless MSH is lying or the roles don't match the names. Either way Oversoul and CKD are right - Seanald is
not
the lynch for today.

@Oversoul:


In post 1833, Oversoul wrote:Anyway, Michel. I was saying that PM probabaly got Roleblocked despite his attempt to kill RBT and there being no additional flavor.


I definitely think
something
happened in regard to someone using their powers, but I don't think it was due to PM being roleblocked. I don't see any reason why scum would try and kill RBT. RBT wasn't a threat, was suspected by quite a few people, and he was vanilla - so scum wouldn't have offed him due to being a PR. I just went through his ISO and I can't even figure out who exactly he even suspected - except maybe Paid Pyro, but that wasn't pushed meaningfully.

In post 1813, Oversoul wrote:I can't quite describe it, but his posts seem to be fencesitting crap and he never really takes a stand on anything definitively.


I thought Lastsurvivor acted very similarly to CKD, at least in regard his unsureness of your lynch. What about Lastsurvivor's behavior differentiates him from CKD's townness?

I'd also like a link to a town Amrun game you've been with her in that I think you're referring to. Do you two usually fight in games?

@Michel
:

In post 1835, MichelSableheart wrote:Also, I just realized: if mafia received fakeclaims, wouldn't that be noted in Nero's rolepm? The more I think about it, the more likely it seems that scum may not have received fakeclaims after all.


Are you saying that when he flipped we would have seen that he was given a fakeclaim, or that Nero would have used a fakeclaim if he actually
did
have a fakeclaim? I've mainly been in open games so I'm a little clueless: How common/uncommon is it for mods to give fakeclaims to scum anyway?

Regardless, it didn't even make sense for Nero to
not
fakeclaim in the end to at the very least maybe draw out a cc. I think D4 went by a lot faster than he probably planned.

@Peregrine:
What are your thoughts about the current bandwagons?

Also, I will totally lynch your ass again if you play the apathy/away card this game and we're both still around near endgame.

@Amrun
: Why vote Peregrine over Poro? What about Nero's flip made him the next viable lynch?

You say Peregrine is going after weak players as your main point, but a quick look at your ISO reveals you've gone after PM, Babyblue, Peregrine, Seanald and RBT - all of whom I consider weak players this game and are the majority of your votes. You can also argue that your vote for Oversoul was weak itself given the circumstances. I don't see how that particular point makes him scum anymore than it does make you scum, really.


I need to rethink some things with the confirmation of Seanald's name. Haven't had time yet, but I want to reread some stuff in D1 and D2. I still think scum jumped all over that Oversoul reaction test thinking he was a PR and I want to see who jumped on or held a vastly different opinion of Oversoul in D1 beforehand.
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Post Post #1880 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:15 am

Post by farside22 »

In post 1875, Lastsurvivor wrote:
In post 1867, Oversoul wrote:It was more a rhetorical question. LS jumping all over that is odd.


Meh. I mixed up his play with Paid Pyro's.

@Sword: I believe Seanald only had two votes when you voted Amrun, but fair enough.

@Mod:
I'm fairly certain Arugula has siteflaked. He hasn't posted anywhere since the 21st...



I am prodding him to see what happens first.

*sigh*

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Post Post #1881 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:37 am

Post by Luckyjt »

unvote: vote jal


I want to add a little pressure here. I just got scum vibes from him with his last post. Not exactly sure why.
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Post Post #1882 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:45 am

Post by Paid Pyro »

Luckyjt, why the need to add pressure on Jal? One post out of 5 days and this is your best read on Jal? Would it be better to ask Lowman how you feel?

@Michel, if you are a name cop why have you not cleared the masons? Especially when this came out on day one?
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Post Post #1883 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 4:01 am

Post by Lastsurvivor »

In post 1879, Jal wrote:Also, I will totally lynch your ass again if you play the apathy/away card this game and we're both still around near endgame.


^

Speak to us, Lucky. Where do these scum vibes come from?

You too, OS. Speak to us. Why is your head confused?
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Post Post #1884 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 4:29 am

Post by Luckyjt »

i just dont like the way he cleared people and then said there is chance they aren't actually cleared. It bothers me how he put it.

Lowman is V/la and I can only talk to him at night.

And really my head isnt too much into this game. The reason I joined it was because I liked the theme but I cant seem to be able to focus in large theme games until there is less than 10 people left. This will probably be my last large theme game.
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Post Post #1885 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:13 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

@ckd: both my night 2 and night 4 investigations are currently alive, yes. And I guess massclaiming initials would work, allthough it's not ideal. Main problem would would be that players can get away with a villain claim, though that would be found out later.

jal wrote:Are you saying that when he flipped we would have seen that he was given a fakeclaim, or that Nero would have used a fakeclaim if he actually did have a fakeclaim? I've mainly been in open games so I'm a little clueless: How common/uncommon is it for mods to give fakeclaims to scum anyway?
Since the rolepm's are getting revealed, I think that we would have seen in his rolepm if he was given a fakeclaim. Don't have that much experience with theme games myself, though, so I can't answer your second question.

Paid Pyro wrote:@Michel, if you are a name cop why have you not cleared the masons? Especially when this came out on day one?
The masons are already clearing each other. I felt me investigating them didn't add nearly as much as me investigating someone we didn't know anything about.



Analysis based on a reread of day 1 and 2 hopefully coming later this evening.
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Post Post #1886 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:07 am

Post by Amrun »

beep boop beep boop

INPUT: Jal

OUTPUT: Do you not remember why I originally suspected Peregrine? He called out kdowns for voting "only newbies" in PMysterious and BabyBlue while ignoring that others (including myself) who were harder lynches had also done so. And you ignored several people I went after, including Nero Cain, Porochaz, and Oversoul. Also PV is a good player, even though he's active lurking in this game. In this game, I have coincidentally suspected some, but not all, of the weaker players - they can be scum too.

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Post Post #1887 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:21 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

dont massclaim initials yet, would like to see a 50/50 slip in MS's claim....something like Mr 2 stays hidden (and MS confirms after) and Mr 4 MS tells us (and Mr 4 claims after)...got to think about it more though....1-3 pages behind right now, so there might be other ideas out there.
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Post Post #1888 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:22 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

EDIT Mr 4, MS tells us (and Mr 4 confirms after.)
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Post Post #1889 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:11 am

Post by Oversoul »

Going to reread tonight... hopefully... maybe....

Probably not because of roommates and all. :P

(I promise I'll get to this thread *sometime* within the next 4 days, very busy)
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Post Post #1890 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:16 am

Post by Porochaz »

So... I don't like the way Amrun has suddenly decided she went after me, you mentioned suspicion, which is suspicious in itself because you have held quite a townie stance of me so far, but thats it, don't gift yourself anything else and certainly don't use it as a point in your favour. You seem to be bulking up your actual role because lets face it, you've been riding on your early townieness for quite a long time.

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Post Post #1891 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:05 pm

Post by Amrun »

beep boop beep boop

INPUT: Porochaz

OUTPUT: Yes, early on, I had a townread of you - but I noted that you were using your post restriction as a crutch and I did not like it. Most of what I liked is that we were on the same page with RBT, but RBT flipped town. When your post restriction left, you STILL did nothing. And the kill implicates you. Still, you're not #1 on my kill list.

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Post Post #1892 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:59 pm

Post by Lastsurvivor »

CKD, don't like your 50/50 plan. I understand that you want to prove MSH's validity, but he's already outed OS's initials. What more would outing Mr. 4 do?

Lucky, I think I see what you're getting at with Jal, but it's very inconsequential.

Speaking of the name claim, why aren't we getting on with it? We're all kinda twiddling are thumbs atm (at least, I am).
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Post Post #1893 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:24 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

Well, most time if scum has a power or extra ability, they can not do that ability and perform the kill in the same night.

night 4 was after nero died, less scum to make the kill.

LS, what happens when we all claim our initials and MS says "everyone is telling the truth"? nothing...i am not arguing that MS has this ability, I am not sure about his alignment...at least with my way, we will see if MS actually did something night 4...but I guess, if he wanted to lie, he could have said he got a dead person's initials one night to give him some breathing room.

I assume that OS has confirmed the initials that MS has provided (still need to catch up)...

fine lets do the claim....in your next post, if you havent already claimed your name, please claim your initials.
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Post Post #1894 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:25 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

also,
unvote


for now.
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Post Post #1895 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:59 pm

Post by Oversoul »

I mean either way wouldn't the scum have to lie? Unless they were given godfatheresque fakeclaims.
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Post Post #1896 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 2:31 pm

Post by Jal »

My initials are B.G.

@Lucky
: Who do you think I've cleared but said there was a chance they aren't really? I think I only really cleared CKD and OS.

If you're referring to Michel, I believe his role and I think he's most likely to be town based his prior play along with his claim. I was mainly responding to the doubt that's on him and how we can use his claimed role regardless if people think he's scum. I also believe Seanald is town based on this claim, because I personally
don't
believe MSH is lying about Seanald's name and I
do
believe names match the alignments based on our flips so far.

It doesn't even matter if I am wrong and CKD's hunch is right, though. I don't think there's a lot of motivation for a scum Michel to come out and confirm scumbuddy Seanald's name like that when there wasn't a lot of pressure on Seanald today with OS and CKD both saying he's not the right lynch - it wasn't going to happen. So I guess I've cleared Seanald too.

What do you think?

@Amrun
:

In post 1886, Amrun wrote:Do you not remember why I originally suspected Peregrine? He called out kdowns for voting "only newbies" in PMysterious and BabyBlue while ignoring that others (including myself) who were harder lynches had also done so. And you ignored several people I went after, including Nero Cain, Porochaz, and Oversoul. Also PV is a good player, even though he's active lurking in this game. In this game, I have coincidentally suspected some, but not all, of the weaker players - they can be scum too.


Fair enough on your first point, but no, I didn't ignore your other votes. I already said your vote for Oversoul was already weak in itself. You can say the same for your vote for Nero as well - because really, who
didn't
vote Nero yesterday? I just don't see it much as a scum tell and enough to vote for over Poro, especially with that case you just gave and you're right - weaker players can be scum too.

What are your other reads?

@CKD
:

In post 1893, curiouskarmadog wrote:LS, what happens when we all claim our initials and MS says "everyone is telling the truth"? nothing...i am not arguing that MS has this ability, I am not sure about his alignment...at least with my way, we will see if MS actually did something night 4...but I guess, if he wanted to lie, he could have said he got a dead person's initials one night to give him some breathing room.


Unless there are only two maf in the game, Nero's death doesn't necessarily mean that a scum-Michel would take over the kill duty. Based on Nero being a roleblocker, I really doubt he was the one sent to kill either.

You have to consider though: What if Michel doesn't say everyone is telling the truth?

We'll know the truth through flips in the end either way though.
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Post Post #1897 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:22 pm

Post by Lastsurvivor »

In post 1893, curiouskarmadog wrote:LS, what happens when we all claim our initials and MS says "everyone is telling the truth"? nothing...i am not arguing that MS has this ability, I am not sure about his alignment...at least with my way, we will see if MS actually did something night 4...but I guess, if he wanted to lie, he could have said he got a dead person's initials one night to give him some breathing room.


If MSH wants, he can specifically confirm Mr. 2 + 4. So if they are both telling the truth, then we have two clears depending on how ambiguous the character's alignments are (I.e, if the character's name makes them obv town). However, unless we have 2 + 4 full name claim, we'd have to trust MSH in that regard.

My initials are U.T.
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Post Post #1898 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 4:13 pm

Post by Amrun »

beep boop beep boop

INPUT: Initials

OUTPUT: B

bleep bloop bleep bloop
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Post Post #1899 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:40 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

@ckd: if you want to check me, you could let me claim the full names of nr 2 and 4 after they have claimed initials. That would get more information to scum, but would serve as an extra check.

Summary of the claims thus far:
  • Amrun - B
  • Arugula
  • curiouskarmadog - Superman
  • Jal - BG
  • MichelSableheart - Merlin
  • Last Survivor - UT
  • Lowman - Butthead
  • Luckyjt - Beavis
  • Oversoul - TB
  • Paid Pyro
  • PeregrineV
  • Porochaz
  • Salamence
  • Seanald - Douglas Yancey Funnie
  • SwordofOmens




Right, computer didn't cooperate, trying that analysis based on day 1 & 2 now.

Day 1 started with the bandwagon on PMysterious, which got to L-1, was believed to be hammered. The bandwagon consisted of: Amrun, Arugula, Seanald, BabyBlue/PaidPyro,
MattP/Oversoul
(unvoted after PM 'hammered'),
iDanyboy
, PeregrineV, Jal (unvoted before 'lynch'),
kdowns
, Agent_Ireland/VE/Oversoul,
Nero Cain
,
Guy_Named_Riggs
,
PMysterious
.

After that wagon the votes were split, with various wagons gaining three or four votes, but only the Seanald wagon consisting of:
Kmd
, Jal, CKD, sword_of_omans, MichelSableheart,
iDanyboy
and Arugula gaining serious traction.

The day ended with a wagon on iDannyboy, consisting of: Arugula,
Nero Cain
, Seanald, LowMan, MichelSableheart, Lastsurvivor, Luckyjt,
kdowns
,
Kmd
,
PMysterious
, CKD,
RBT
, Porochaz.

Day 2 was mainly focussed on an Oversoul wagon. Various players voted him during various parts of the day. At the end of the day, MichelSableheart, VisceraEyes/Oversoul,
Nero Cain
, Amrun,
Guy_Named_Riggs
, Porochaz and Lastsurvivor were still voting him. Luckyjt,
PMysterious
and LowMan switched at deadline to GNR. Paid Pyro had voted him but ended at RBT, Monday/Salamence didn't have a vote, ckd kept switching back and forth but ended up on GNR. Jal, PeregrineV,
RBT
and Sword never voted OS. Seanald also never voted, but also defended OS, whereas
kmd
and Arugula voted him early but defended him later.

Day 2 ended with a bandwagon on GNR, build at the last minute as an alternative to an OS lynch, and consisting of: PeregrineV,
Riceballtail
, Seanald,
Oversoul
,
kmd4390
, Arugula, curiouskarmadog, Jal,
PMysterious
, Luckyjt, LowMan,



  • Amrun - B - Amrun's Post Restriction is genuine, as she was able to confirm Monday's through the punishment system. Amrun was part of the early pressure against PM, then switched to Baby when that wagon didn't go through. She avoided the Danny and GNR wagons, and was one of the strong pushers of OS. The VI pressure early on doesn't sit well with me, as it's an easy cop out for scum. Her defense of GNR in #1353 is a positive, and her post restriction is a bit harsh for scum to have. Overall, a neutral read. She could be scum, but I don't have strong suspicions towards her.
  • Arugula - Arugula was part of every major wagon during day 1. His position during day 2 was a strong defense of Oversoul after having been convinced by kmd that he was town. Interestingly enough, despite this fierce defense and a flat out refusal to hammer OS day 2, he was part of the lynching wagon day 3, when Nero was the clear alternative. I feel suspicious of his behaviour.
  • curiouskarmadog - Superman - Good posts day 1, where an early defence of PM stands out. His back and forthing on OS day 2 felt to me like honestly not knowing what to think. His claim is believable, and a good explanation for the lack of a mafia kill night 3. Town.
  • Jal - BG - Her vote for Seanald when the PM wagon was reaching steam was the direct cause of that wagon ending at L-1 rather then lynch. I seriously doubt that scum would unvote there so unnoticed. She has generally made good posts day 1 and 2, mildly defending Danny day 1 and OS day 2. Town.
  • Last Survivor - UT - His posts seem generally well reasoned. He wasn't part of the PM wagon, which is a plus, and his vote on Danny was ok. Day 2, he attacked GNR early, but was not part of the lynching wagon, disliking the players on it and the speed with which it popped up. If LS is scum, I would instead have expected him to switch back to GNR as soon as it turned out that wagon was viable. Town.
  • Lowman - Butthead - If Lowman wasn't one of the claimed masons, he would be one of my top suspects. He has been extremely low on content, satisfied with bandwagoning whomever is the popular vote at the moment. Given how our lynches turned out thus far, that's not positive.
  • Luckyjt - Beavis - Has been rather careful with his vote early on, but part of every major bandwagon. He has been giving more info then his mason partner, but again his role is what mainly keeps of suspicion of him.
  • Oversoul - TB - Allthough Agent Ireland originally faked his restriction, his name gives a very good explanation on why he would only be able to post in pictures on some of the days. As far as I can see, this role and restriction are likely to be on town. Add in a mild defense of Danny, and you have a slot that's likely town.
  • Paid Pyro - Babyblue was all over the place. It was her miscount of the votes that led to the belief that PM was hammered, something that's slightly less likely to come from scum. There was also her reaction to being force replaced that was a slight town tell. Paid Pyro was a far less dominant force, who mostly seemed to avoid the OS debate late day 2 and 3, where scum would probably take a stronger stance either way. Likely town.
  • PeregrineV - PeregrineV is rather content light. The main point against him is that he was part of the PM L-1 wagon on what he claimed was a random vote. Day 2 he generally was against an OS wagon, though he did not take a strong stance. He was attacking GNR before it was popular. Overall, he didn't do much wrong, though I haven't got a strong feeling on him either way.
  • Porochaz - Porochaz is rather low on content, making little use of his two days without a restriction. He was the hammer vote on Danny and on OS. Again no strong suspicions, but I could see him as scum.
  • Salamence - Even though (or perhaps because) the restriction doesn't seem very strict, the players in this slot continually forget it. This slot has been defending PM early, felt hesitant about the Danny lynch, and was against the lynches of GNR AND OS day 2. Though not the most active player, I doubt these stances would come from scum, so likely town.
  • Seanald - Douglas Yancey Funnie - Seanald was seriously guilty of rolefishing day 1, was a strong attacker of PMysterious, claimed relatively early, and was a strong pusher of the Danny wagon. Day 2, he again took a strong stance, this time against an OS lynch, being the main player responsible for the alternative GNR wagon that developped. He was strongly responsible for 2 mislynches and 1 almost mislynch. His confirmed name makes me look at other places, though.
  • SwordofOmens - Sword hasn't been highly active He has been a strong push against Seanald, but his belief of the claim was also an important reason why that wagon didn't go through in the end. After that, he has been focussing almost solely on Seanald, though. Haven't got a strong read on him, though he doesn't feel too bad.


So it's mainly process of elimination that makes me look at scum in the group of Amrun, Arugula, PeregrineV, Porochaz, Sword.
There is no 'a' in Michel.

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