Open 441 - Chosen Mafia (OVER)

[Mortontfrh]

Realgodfather the

Vanilla Townie

has been killed.

Current Vote Count:

Vote Count 3.0

With 5 players it takes 3 to lynch.

Not voting: Mcstab, Eidolon, Rapidcanyon, Whiskers, Inte

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-09-17 01:57:00)

[rapidcanyon]

Hmm, thought rgf was chosen.

Okay, so 5 players left. Mcstab isn't scum. I know I am not - Greywing going after me counts in my favor and I was the first one to find his posts scummy. McStab was the first to vote Greywing. Whiskers has been posting good analysis, Inte is just wierd.

I'll make my case for Eidolon and vote in a little while. Somewhat busy at the moment.

[rapidcanyon]

Okay, so...

Here's my case. I won't even go into how Eidolon was trying to lynch me while maintaining that she had a "town-read" on me yet kept saying that I was her most likely lynch option unless someone asks about it. I have a completely non-personal case against her.

1) Greywing's accusation

Once a scum is dead, the best way to move forward is to see how he interacts with other players. Greywing voted for me and gave really poor responses to my questions. He said that I should be lynched and that if I flip scum, Eidolon should be looked into next. This makes no sense at all considering Eidolon was gunning for me at least for the entire previous page. I then asked Grey if he will look into Eidolon if I flipped VT or chosen. After all, she was the one pushing my lynch, right? He equivocates a bit in 291 saying he that he will "look into" Eidolon if I flip chosen. He doesn't guarantee that he will go after her the way he did if I flip scum. Since I am town, the only logical conclusion to me is that Greywing wants to tie both me and Eidolon together in the case that she flips scum, I look suspicious and if I flip town, she looks suspicious.

2) Distancing while voting for the other wagon

Greywing accuses Eidolon of being scum and yet votes for me. He never shows why I am more likely to be scum but simply says that if I flip scum, she should be looked into next. He references McStab's case. And here is the kicker - he wants to blame McStab if I was lynched and flipped chosen despite me repeatedly asking him to look at Eidolon if I am lynched and flip chosen. Eidolon as scum is good at making other people look guilty for a mislynch while she is the one who is really responsible.

3) Eidolon's panic at being tied to Grey

a) DENIAL
Let's pay really careful attention to what is happenning here:

I say that the scumteam are Eidolon and Grey.

I made my case against Eidolon in detail.

I think she and Grey are the scum

. Grey's assertion that he thinks Eidolon and I are both scum or both town fits perfectly with him knowing that Eido is scum and I, town. If I am lynched and flip town, Grey can say that he was mistaken and that Eido and I were town. If Eido is lynched and flips scum, grey can push a lynch on me. This gives him those options. Grey never addresses the fact that Eidolon is pushing my lynch while saying she has a townread on me.

Whiskers wonders if it is an Eido-Stab scumteam.

So-- cool, Eido/Stab scumteam?

I discount the possibility by asking whiskers:

If it is an eido/stab scumteam, would a good player like McStab be openly supportive of her?

In essence, I continue to push my Eido-grey scumteam theory by refuting whisker's Eido-Stab scumteam theory.

Note now how Eidolon's next response attempts to push it under the rug and not even consider my arguments that it is her and Grey. She defends why it is not her and McStab. She doesn't address the core of my argument at all.

PEDIT: RC, think about this. As scum do i ever buddy up with my teammates? A me/mcstab scumteam doesn't make much sense. More probable that one is buddying the other or we are both town.

Um, no. I didn't say it was you and McStab. I said it was you and Grey. Way to sweep it under the rug and answer something else.

b) LINKING other people with Grey

She first wonders if it was RGF and Grey. Then she wonders if it was whiskers and grey. At that point, she had made up her mind to bus Grey so was looking to see who else she could make look guilty.

Based on all this evidence, I am going to

VOTE: Eidolon

(And this is not even counting her push on lynching me - that is further evidence. I made pages and pages of analysis based on that which she just ignored)

[rapidcanyon]

TYPOS

1) Greywing's accusation

Once a scum is dead, the best way to move forward is to see how he interacts with other players. Greywing voted for me and gave really poor responses to my questions. He said that I should be lynched and that if I flip scum, Eidolon should be looked into next. This makes no sense at all considering Eidolon was gunning for me at least for the entire previous page. I then asked Grey if he will

lynch

Eidolon if I flipped VT or chosen. After all, she was the one pushing my lynch, right? He equivocates a bit in 291 saying he that he will "look into" Eidolon if I flip chosen. He doesn't guarantee that he will go after her the way he did if I flip scum. Since I am town, the only logical conclusion to me is that Greywing wants to tie both me and Eidolon together in the case that she flips scum, I look suspicious and if I flip town, she looks

less

suspicious.

[inte]

your point about 307 is good

VOTE: eiodolon

[inte]

VOTE: eidolon, rather

[Eidolon]

i don't have much time right now but i'm just wondering why did rgf die? he really wasn't contributing much but due to grey's reaction to him and greys flip, it was safe to assume that he was town. he probably had the highest town confirmation from the vanillas that mafia could kill.

why didn't mcstab die? he was pretty much called town by everyone. he's either chosen or mafia.

remember, mafia got to pick one person not to be chosen. it's probable that they would pick the most experienced player or the player who they see as a threat.

looking at join dates, the most experienced (original) members in order: mcstab, crypto, pasch, whiskers, om, grey, rc, eidolon, rgf.

i'll respond more thoroughly to rc's case tomorrow when i have time but for right now i'll just say that i'm pretty sure i was the first person to call grey scum. i'd have no reason to buss him at that point.

i still think whiskers is scummy. her case on whiskers was precluded by saying "i might be nitpicking" which strikes me as odd, as a way to accuse him and distance herself, but do it weakly so as not to bring much attention to him. also, last day phase we got into a discussion about why she would want to lynch me and then her over grey. i kept bringing up the point that there is no reason to suspect that grey is more likely chosen than me or her. she never responded directly to this point but kept dancing around the issue.. and then went ahead and hammered him anyway.

i don't really like inte's play but i'm not getting a good read in regards to affiliation.

[rapidcanyon]

I'll wait for Eidolon's real response tomorrow but I'll point out that she was not the first but the LAST person to go after Grey. She might have thrown FOSses at Grey before but she was focussed on me for most of the time so I doubt her FOS on Grey had any real meaning. Mafia often distance themselves from each other. Regardless, go ahead and show us where you FOSsed Grey.

As far as I recall, Grey's poor logic was what made me really suspect him. Whiskers too agreed with this. Whiskers and I discussed a bit and then settled on Eidolon and Grey being the scumteam. McStab came in and voted Grey. After all this hapenned, Eidolon voted Grey to lynch him. There were seven players last day phase, one of which was Grey himself and two of whom were inactive. That leaves four. The people who FOSsed Grey were in this order: Rapidcanyon, Whiskers, McStab (with a vote), Eidolon (with a vote), then RC votes Grey and whiskers hammers grey.

[Eidolon]

I think another explanation for om's death is that the mafia were not on the lynch, and they wanted more opportunities to evade POE if we lynched off of pasch's wagon.

I'm starting to lean back towards town on RC because after considering it away from the heat of the moment, his point about scum being off the lynch if pasch was vt does make sense so it might not have been a set-up. he for the most part is playing to his town meta.

I think it's possibly grey/rgf team for the way grey zoned in on rgf both day periods.

PEDIT: RC, think about this. As scum do i ever buddy up with my teammates? A me/mcstab scumteam doesn't make much sense. More probable that one is buddying the other or we are both town.

you actually did say you think grey is scum before me. my bad. but whiskers never called grey scum. she just posted some suspicion on him and then say "i may be nitpicking but i have a bad feeling about him" I think this is THE MOST SUSPICIOUS read that anyone made on grey.

again, i didn't really have a reason to bus him at that point, with only you calling him scum at that time. mcstab was still pushing a scumread on you and rgf. whiskers called me and rgf scum.

then in post 311 I PUSHED THE PERSON MOST AGREED ON TO BE TOWNIE TO LOOK AT GREYS POSTS. Would a scum do this to another scum? No, that's stupid. I wouldn't PUSH someone to READ A SCUMBUDDIES posts with the outlook of them being scum unless I HAD A LEGIT CASE ON HIM BECAUSE I AM TOWN.

PUSHING OTHER TOWNIES TO LOOK INTO A SCUMMY PLAYER, WHEN THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF FOCUS ON HIM, IS TOWN MOTIVATED.

[rapidcanyon]

Oh, well, you are right that you pushed on Grey. You also pushed on RGF at the same time. It is enough for me to

unvote

until I hear your full response tomorrow. Don't want anyone to hammer. Also, I doubt scum would admit a mistake rather than push forward with it.

Who do you think is scum?

[Whiskers]

i'm just wondering why did rgf die?

probably had the highest town confirmation from the vanillas that mafia could kill.

You don't even read your own posts? You answered your question right here. Especially since you say

(mcstab) was pretty much called town by everyone. he's either chosen or mafia.

Maybe, but I'd say it's too early to make such a firm accusation.
However, you might convince the mafia not to nightkill him, to either frame him as mafia, or make you wary to lynch him (and lynch a CT instead).

remember, mafia got to pick one person not to be chosen. it's probable that they would pick the most experienced player or the player who they see as a threat.

And if that player were you, or RC, you may have chosen me. McStab, Pasch, and Greywing also could have had reason to choose me, although Pasch was a townie.

looking at join dates, the most experienced (original) members in order: mcstab, crypto, pasch, whiskers, om, grey, rc, eidolon, rgf.

Right... what about threatening players? RC knows, and iirc YOU knew by game start, that I am a "threatening player"


I think it's

most

interesting that you're the first one do try to scumhunt using the nightkill.

i still think whiskers is scummy. her case on whiskers was precluded by saying "i might be nitpicking" which strikes me as odd, as a way to accuse him and distance herself, but do it weakly so as not to bring much attention to him. also, last day phase we got into a discussion about why she would want to lynch me and then her over grey. i kept bringing up the point that there is no reason to suspect that grey is more likely chosen than me or her. she never responded directly to this point but kept dancing around the issue.. and then went ahead and hammered him anyway.

I often nitpick. You and RC know full well how much I nitpick. RC has seen me nitpick cases apart until they fall down.
The suspicions I had of Greywing were weak and small, things like attacking RC for [playing VI, basically], when that's RC's [normal town play].

You're going to have to bring up examples of how I was "dancing around the issue" -- I told you why I considered planning to lynch VTs instead of ???s. Remember how, up above, you said McStab was either a Chosen Townie or Mafia? You wouldn't lynch him right now, would you? Because he could be either one.
What's the alternative? Lynching VTs.

Oh, and you should also bring up examples of when you said Greywing was no more likely to be chosen than either of us.
But I can disprove this, too:
-Neither you nor I had come under as much suspicion as Greywing by the time we lynched him.
-We were thought to be VTs by Village-Leader McStab, so were under at least some protection from a lynch that day.
-Clever mafia wouldn't push for Chosen Townies right away anyway, for fear of
---giving the CTs away and therefore
---giving themselves away.

i don't really like inte's play but i'm not getting a good read in regards to affiliation.

fencesitting, normally, but okay.

[McStab]

I'm curious as to why I'm alive as well after Grey flipped scum. Could be CT, but no one has reLly taken a strong pass at me except RC, who I think is Chosen. Not comfortable with an Eidolon lynch, could go for an Inte, but I'm no longer sold on Whiskers town. Can't comment more on this for the next rew days, VLa, but please no quicklynches till I get back

[rapidcanyon]

McStab, ever considered the possibility that you are alive because you believe that the sole remaining scum is town? If you are so convinced that Eidolon is town that you are not going to lynch her - ever, what motive would she have to kill you?

Also, unless you present a case for why she is town, or she comes up with a really awesome case for herself tomorrow, we are probably lynching her then. I explained my case in detail in 427. You also were completely absent during our interactions before Grey logged on.

Why do you think it is whiskers or Inte? I could think Inte is possible for the sole reason that he refused to hammer on Grey who ended up being scum but the case against Eidolon is stronger. Also, would an experienced player like Inte buddy so obviously?

As for whiskers, why? I don't know where to start.

[inte]

Also, would an experienced player like Inte buddy so obviously?

at least you WIFOM'd for me

i play for

optimal results

the hammer was stupid, at least i thought i made my intentions clear that i wanted to say something potentially important

anyways, i slight lean town on whiskers because of the hammer

[McStab]

That hammer was scummy. It was an overemphasis on how much she didn't care, and OH what a convenient accident. Nah, it felt forced, she was under pressure, and wanted to beat Inte for towncred. Eidolon is not getting my vote. She gets WAY more towncred than Whiskers from the Greywing wagon.

[inte]

ugh rgf's death doesn't make much sense.

[rapidcanyon]

Okay, let's hear responses from Eidolon and Whiskers. I don't know why we would simply want to stall the day until you come back from V/LA McStab. If you think you can defend Eidolon better than she can defend herself, make your case now for everyone to see. I remember you also said something about Eidolon having a thought process which she likely didn't fake. Could you elaborate on that as well?

[inte]

i feel like i were to flip chosen, it would damn whiskers

just gonna put that out there

[inte]

UNVOTE:

i think eidolon and rc are the chosen

ugh i need to re-read again

[inte]

occam's razor time!

[inte]

bazinga!

VOTE: whiskers

[rapidcanyon]

@ Inte, what are you doing?

[inte]

? tryin to get scum lynched

[rapidcanyon]

And whiskers is scum, how? For hammering? Whiskers was set on a Grey/Eidolon scumteam just like I was. It only made sense that he hammered. We were all agreed on lynching Grey. There was nothing to wait for.

[rapidcanyon]

I could go about refuting McStab's case but let's hear from the lady herself. I'll wait for Eidolon's response and for her sake, I hope it is brilliant.